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Last post 7 years ago by t33bone. 19 replies replies.
Cuban quandry
Stinkdyr Offline
#1 Posted:
Joined: 06-16-2009
Posts: 9,948
Riddle me this, fatmen....now that Cuba is becoming on-limits, and more smokers will buy cc's since they can....will this lead us to cheaper prices on stix from other places due to decreased demand? Or will this lead to a second cigar boom that will make 1995 pale in comparison, since more folks will discover cigars as a pleasant experience from their curiosity exposure to cc?

Think
cameroon Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 04-06-2014
Posts: 810
Cello on, or cello off?
Mandoman Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 12-27-2005
Posts: 4,761
I believe prices will rise for Cuban cigars because the demand will skyrocket. This will lead to a decrease in quality, after all there is a finite amount of tobacco the the manufacturers will want to stretch as far as possible. After awhile, couple of years maybe, he novelty will have worn off and the lower quality will had an effect on the market. Prices and quality will stabilize, probably (my guess, anyway) about where they are now.
KingoftheCove Offline
#4 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,603
Mandoman wrote:
I believe prices will rise for Cuban cigars because the demand will skyrocket. This will lead to a decrease in quality, after all there is a finite amount of tobacco the the manufacturers will want to stretch as far as possible. After awhile, couple of years maybe, he novelty will have worn off and the lower quality will had an effect on the market. Prices and quality will stabilize, probably (my guess, anyway) about where they are now.

+1
I don't buy CCs, so IDGAF about what happens to their business.
My guess is, they will try their best to meet demand, to make as much $$ as possible.
There are several scenarios in which they could "ramp up" production to meet this anticipated huge increase in demand, none of which will will bring smiles to the faces of long time CC buyers.

I'm more interested in how the Cuban situation, and pending US tobacco legislation, will impact the non CC market.
Many different scenarios here as well, thus difficult to predict.
Could be a great time to buy certain brands, while others become very expensive. Everything from crazy blow-out deals to stupid high prices and shortages.
Whistlebritches Offline
#5 Posted:
Joined: 04-23-2006
Posts: 22,127
My Cubans are already sleeping in my humidor.If it causes prices to fall and quality to peak on my favorite Nicaraguan and Dominicans..............WINNING
deadeyedick Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Don't expect to see any Cubans on your local B&M shelf any time soon.

Most anyone in the US who smokes more than an occasional cigar and wants Cubans can get them now so I doubt the demand would exactly skyrocket if the ban was lifted.
Buckwheat Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 04-15-2004
Posts: 12,251
KingoftheCove wrote:
+1
I'm more interested in how the Cuban situation, and pending US tobacco legislation, will impact the non CC market.
Many different scenarios here as well, thus difficult to predict.
Could be a great time to buy certain brands, while others become very expensive. Everything from crazy blow-out deals to stupid high prices and shortages.


If the US passed the draconian anti-tobacco legislation that they are thinking about: I think you will see the rise of a gray market where legal tobacco products will be purchased abroad and imported in to circumvent any price increased caused by the stupid legislation. All you have to do is look at the difference in cost for a pack of smokes in Kentucky, North Carolina, etc.. vs. New York to see that there are people who import cigs from tobacco friendly states and resell them in places with draconian tobacco taxes and laws. fog
99cobra2881 Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 11-19-2013
Posts: 2,472
deadeyedick wrote:
Don't expect to see any Cubans on your local B&M shelf any time soon.

Most anyone in the US who smokes more than an occasional cigar and wants Cubans can get them now so I doubt the demand would exactly skyrocket if the ban was lifted.


I fully think you under estimate the stupidity of the average uninformed American consumer and the mystique behind Cuban cigars.

Ive had people that don't smoke cigars often try telling me "Cuban rejects" cigars were real Cubans. I could only reply with "wow that's cool."

The biggest hurdle will be the new fda regs because none of the Cuban cigars were sold here prior to 2007.
cacman Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 07-03-2010
Posts: 12,216
deadeyedick wrote:
Don't expect to see any Cubans on your local B&M shelf any time soon.

Most anyone in the US who smokes more than an occasional cigar and wants Cubans can get them now so I doubt the demand would exactly skyrocket if the ban was lifted.

And the current attack and new rules by the FDA will only further add to the restrictions against CC's being available at your local B&M.

Does anyone honestly expect the Cuban marcas to jump the the FDA's hoops just so they can distribute a small quantity of their product in the U.S.?
rfenst Offline
#10 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,112
deadeyedick wrote:
Don't expect to see any Cubans on your local B&M shelf any time soon.

Most anyone in the US who smokes more than an occasional cigar and wants Cubans can get them now so I doubt the demand would exactly skyrocket if the ban was lifted.


+1
It will also be a while for the non-Cuban manufacturers and Habanos to sort out legal trademark issues. (Think Montecristo RyJ and H. Upmann- all of which have cc and non cc cigars for sale.)
dstieger Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
I just wish they'd hurry up so NY Customs will release a package
shaun341 Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 08-02-2012
Posts: 8,826
I know my last purchase of cubans the import slip taped to the package said 50 cigar valued at $50.01 and it went through customs normal time it has been taking.
fishinguitarman Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 07-29-2006
Posts: 69,148
Yes, no, and maybe so?
atccigar Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 04-08-2016
Posts: 144
How does one aquire them? Are they really all they are cracked up to be?
fishinguitarman Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 07-29-2006
Posts: 69,148
atccigar wrote:
How does one aquire them? Are they really all they are cracked up to be?




Yes!
Buckwheat Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 04-15-2004
Posts: 12,251
atccigar wrote:
How does one aquire them? Are they really all they are cracked up to be?


You buy them. Sarcasm
MACS Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,599
deadeyedick wrote:
Don't expect to see any Cubans on your local B&M shelf any time soon.

Most anyone in the US who smokes more than an occasional cigar and wants Cubans can get them now so I doubt the demand would exactly skyrocket if the ban was lifted.


Yeaup...
atccigar Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 04-08-2016
Posts: 144
Whew. Glad we didn't need the mystery machine to solve this one.......
t33bone Offline
#19 Posted:
Joined: 10-25-2007
Posts: 27,374
deadeyedick wrote:
Don't expect to see any Cubans on your local B&M shelf any time soon.

Most anyone in the US who smokes more than an occasional cigar and wants Cubans can get them now so I doubt the demand would exactly skyrocket if the ban was lifted.

+another1
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