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Iran Nuke Deal
tailgater Offline
#1 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
Trump pulls the US out.

Clearly a great decision.

What say you?



RobertHively Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 01-14-2015
Posts: 1,817
Sounds like World War 3 is heating up.

Going to be a crazy summer.
gummy jones Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 07-06-2015
Posts: 7,969
The right move.

But now dems well blame Trump for all the hostilities even though they have been rapidly growing unchecked for a long time and on quite a few presidents' watches.

Strength through weakness or leading from behind or whatever the policy had been the last 8 years was utterly ridiculous. The world was not safer and every despot was emboldened.

The next large scale war will likely be started (if it hasn't already) in some crummy country no one really cares too much about by proxies that pit Russia, Iran, China (+/- north Korea, another Muslim country or two like turkey or Pakistan) vs Israel, the us, France, England, Saudi, Japan, South Korea, and most every one else.

I hope not

But mankind is a wretched beast, so eventually...
frankj1 Offline
#4 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
Trump's finest told him that Iran was complying. I don't know about anyone else, but unlike folks here, and like the Mueller final report, I have no inside sources telling me anything else, yet.
Israel seems to be against the deal though.

But seriously, I really never knew for sure how to view the deal...or why most of Trump's advisors and all of our allies wanted us to stay in. I do know that it may set a precedent to other countries that our word may not be worth much...see North Korea coming up.

One more item that I can't believe I, being a lib, have to bring up...Kerry had no business doing what he did. I am not a Trump supporter (duh) but he is the President and Kerry was not given this assignment. This is one of those situations where I don't want everything I want. That would end up in dictatorship, and a benevolent dictator is still worse than just losing a few issues.
tailgater Offline
#5 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
frankj1 wrote:

One more item that I can't believe I, being a lib, have to bring up...Kerry had no business doing what he did. I am not a Trump supporter (duh) but he is the President and Kerry was not given this assignment. This is one of those situations where I don't want everything I want. That would end up in dictatorship, and a benevolent dictator is still worse than just losing a few issues.



First the DC writer thingie.
Now John Heinz Kerry.
You shoot guns.
Never rearranged your chromosomes.
Hell, you probably know all the words to the pledge of allegiance.

Dude. You're practically a card carrying Republican.


delta1 Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,778
Trump never explained why it was a bad deal, other than that we've paid Iran upfront and there is nothing to prevent them from resuming nuclear acquisition and preparation when the deal expires in ten years. All the experts say the inspections have been working and Iran seems to be keeping up it's part of the bargain.

Trump has based his agenda almost exclusively to undo Obama's accomplishments, good or bad, and many pointed to the Iran deal as a major foreign policy achievement by the previous President. Is that a legitimate reason to move the world closer to war than to peace?

Ten years is a long time to work out additional agreements to contain the threat using diplomacy and subtle pressure, while waiting out the old Iranian mullahs who are currently in power. (funny how old men closer to death all over the world, make decisions that will lead to the premature deaths of young innocent people) There continues to be a huge portion of the Iranian population, mostly young and well-educated who are still pro-west/democracy. Diplomacy and business/education exchanges have historically been preferred ways to democratize a country. This decision may have just put those pro-democracy people in jeopardy, or at least drive them away from us.

The other people that this decision puts at risk are innocent Israelis. Iran has the capability to respond to use of Israeli force and can launch weapons into Israel. Israel pushed the US into reneging on the deal so that there would be an excuse to exercise their military options, to satisfy Israel's desire to punish Iran for reasons that go way back, beyond Iran's potential nuclear capability threat. With the US clearly locked in with the Israeli position, Israel can go to their preferred solution: military force against Iran. To dramatize that point, Israel bombed an Iranian military base in Syria within hours of Trump's announcement. The little dog's tail is wagging the big dog.

Who and how will the US enforce all the sanctions, and how effective will they be? We aren't the only ones doing big business in Iran, and all the other players say they'll stick with the deal, effectively watering down any solo US sanctions that might take hold. Boeing may lose $20 billion in business due to sanctions, so US businesses doing business in Iran and citizens who may have been employed by those companies will pay a price.

Meanwhile, with the US out and the inspectors presumably out, will Iran resume its nuclear acquisition activities...yes...

Will that cause more upheaval and uncertainty in the ME...yes...

will Israel intensify military action against Iran...yes...

will that lead to a larger conflagration in the Middle East that will drag us into war there once again........................

People usually don't flee from peace...will there be another surge of displaced people who will flood into safe havens all over the world............
Mr. Jones Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,419
I'm pretty sure...TRUMP DIDN'T EVEN UNDERSTAND THE JARGON IN THE AGREEMENT...

NOT THAT I DO EITHER.

ITS JUST A "TALKING POINT" DECISION...

LIKE HIS "SCRAP OBAMA CARE" ...

JUST BECAUSE IT SOUNDED GOOD TO IDJIT REDNECKS...

I GUESS IT DOESNT MATTER THAT THE REPUBLICAN HEALTH PLANS ARE WORSE, HIGHER DEDUCTIBLES,
HIGHER COPAYS AND HIGHER PREMIUMS...
^^^ I MEAN ...HOW F**KING STUPID ARE REPUBLICANS?
dstieger Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
delta1 wrote:

Trump has based his agenda almost exclusively to undo Obama's accomplishments, good or bad, and many pointed to the Iran deal as a major foreign policy achievement by the previous President. .....Is that a legitimate reason to move the world closer to war than to peace?



I agree strongly with the first sentence....but I dismiss the assumption of the question following.

I am a little nauseous when Trump gets in a room full of foreign dignitaries and rants about how chitty Obama was (and even other previous presidents were.) Its bad enough when he does it at his perpetual campaign rallies, but when he says it directly to Macron or Abe or Merkel....it not just unconventional anymore...its wrong, IMO

But I haven't heard anything that makes me believe that this weeks' decision moves the world closer to war. In fact, the limited coverage/opinioning that I have heard seems to indicate that nobody has a clue what this is going to mean weeks, months, or even years from now. I think the risk of potential 'secondary sanctions' on friendly businesses is greater than the risk of someone getting into a hot war with Iran.
delta1 Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,778
Israel bombed an Iranian military base near Damascus in Syria, at the same time they were telling its citizens to report to bomb shelters...just a few hours after Trump's announcement. Coincidence?


https://www.timesofisrael.com/death-toll-from-syria-strike-rises-to-15-including-8-iranians-monitor/
frankj1 Offline
#10 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
tailgater wrote:
First the DC writer thingie.
Now John Heinz Kerry.
You shoot guns.
Never rearranged your chromosomes.
Hell, you probably know all the words to the pledge of allegiance.

Dude. You're practically a card carrying Republican.



by Massachusetts standards, I am practically a Texan...how do you know about the chromosomes?
dstieger Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
delta1 wrote:
Israel bombed an Iranian military base near Damascus in Syria, at the same time they were telling its citizens to report to bomb shelters...just a few hours after Trump's announcement. Coincidence?


https://www.timesofisrael.com/death-toll-from-syria-strike-rises-to-15-including-8-iranians-monitor/


Somebody shot somebody else in a third country in the Middle East? That's a shocking development we've never seen before....must be Trump's fault?

A little early to be writing the history on this one, dontcha think?
delta1 Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,778
maybe so...but history is replete with mistakes of war when the wise guys didn't want to give peace a chance...

sure ... bombs seem to be flying regularly there ... that's why peace initiatives, even non-perfect ones, are so valuable that they should be nurtured, not abandoned...
gummy jones Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 07-06-2015
Posts: 7,969
I find the Iran deal quotes from Schumer and a bunch of dems. They thought it was bad and that Iran was a bad actor.

Then I see the videos today of them burning a paper us flag I their parliament and chanting death to America.

Never make a trust laden deal with a nation like that. They have nothing to offer and we have nothing to gain.
tailgater Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
frankj1 wrote:
by Massachusetts standards, I am practically a Texan...how do you know about the chromosomes?


If anyone could add a tripod, then everyone would have one.

tailgater Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
delta1 wrote:
maybe so...but history is replete with mistakes of war when the wise guys didn't want to give peace a chance...

sure ... bombs seem to be flying regularly there ... that's why peace initiatives, even non-perfect ones, are so valuable that they should be nurtured, not abandoned...


It wasn't a peace initiative.
It was a short term placebo. Like the rest of Obama's policies.

Obamacare was doomed to fail AFTER he left office.
Iran was going to be happy until AFTER he left office.

See a pattern?


I'm not an expert at world politics.
But it's my understanding that Israll tipped us off regarding Iranian shenanigans regarding nukes.
Israel is not unbiased in this regard, but neither are they stupid nor incompetent.



teedubbya Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
We didn’t pull out. We are choosing to violate it. (That’s hot)

I say we because Trump is us.

I’m sure NK will abide by a Trump treaty much better than Iran will an Obama (actually multilateral) treaty.

It’s all good.
tailgater Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
teedubbya wrote:
We didn’t pull out. We are choosing to violate it. (That’s hot)

I say we because Trump is us.

I’m sure NK will abide by a Trump treaty much better than Iran will an Obama (actually multilateral) treaty.

It’s all good.



Trust, but verify.

Trump is being upfront regarding NK.
Obama ignored the "verify" part with Iran.

And Trump is us. Just like Obama was us back when he overrode Congress to enter into the deal initially.

opelmanta1900 Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
frankj1 wrote:
Trump's finest told him that Iran was complying. I don't know about anyone else, but unlike folks here, and like the Mueller final report, I have no inside sources telling me anything else, yet.
Israel seems to be against the deal though.

But seriously, I really never knew for sure how to view the deal...or why most of Trump's advisors and all of our allies wanted us to stay in. I do know that it may set a precedent to other countries that our word may not be worth much...see North Korea coming up.

One more item that I can't believe I, being a lib, have to bring up...Kerry had no business doing what he did. I am not a Trump supporter (duh) but he is the President and Kerry was not given this assignment. This is one of those situations where I don't want everything I want. That would end up in dictatorship, and a benevolent dictator is still worse than just losing a few issues.



https://youtu.be/7SV9eRoaNyc

I think it's worth a watch... former cia agent Mike Baker on the Rogan podcast yesterday... the while hours is informative but this clip is specifically about iran...
frankj1 Offline
#19 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
tailgater wrote:
Trust, but verify.

Trump is being upfront regarding NK.
Obama ignored the "verify" part with Iran.

And Trump is us. Just like Obama was us back when he overrode Congress to enter into the deal initially.


thought the Obama and now Trump administrations have been verifying Iranian compliance...no?

The one thing I do know about the deal is that no one here knows any real specifics about the deal so we tend to split along partisan lines...or get stuck in an unsure zone (like me), but I will say the thing that had given me hope initially was the ten year part.

To me, that is not short term, and there are enough reports that Iranian youth and young adults and those approaching middle age are smitten with Western ways. I've always thought exporting our greatness with our freedom and quality of life would sell itself around the world without war (which cannot capture people's minds).

I was hoping that over the decade, the proWest Iranians would make inroads against the old world regime...and if not, there were years left to tweak the deal.

But without any specific knowledge of the deal's details, it's possible I would be against it...which doesn't stop most people on either side.
frankj1 Offline
#20 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
and of course, now there is no way to stop weapon development, unless the rest of the countries involved keep it alive.
opelmanta1900 Offline
#21 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
frankj1 wrote:
and of course, now there is no way to stop weapon development, unless the rest of the countries involved keep it alive.

there already wasnt... under the former agreement, there was zero access to any military sites... zero...
dstieger Offline
#22 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
Why Iran (or NK) would give up their nuclear aspirations is completely lost on me. There are no carrots big enough. Probably no sticks, either.

Look at it from their POV; "There's what...nine countries with nukes out there? Why not us? Why does US have the right to tell us that we can't create a nuke? I don't see anyone sanctioning France....or Pakistan....Or, Israel." Having a nuke is one of the absolute biggest things that an authoritarian leader can use to show his people how bad-azz their country is. Nothing legitimizes their position on the world stage like a nuke, in their eyes -- or at least how they think their people would view them. In fact, US, NATO, Soviet Union, etc have had little problem putting nukes into other countries....I'll bet nuclear weapons have been staged in two dozen different countries in the last 30 years. I'm no proponent of nukes and would support some sort of verifiable global denuclearization, but if anyone thinks that some sabre rattling is going to make Rouhani or Fatty Fat give up nukes for good, they're quite delusional.

I did hear Trump say something about eventual denuclearization of the entire Korean Peninsula. I thought that was interesting. I wonder if Moon was caught off guard by that one....or if he just shrugged, knowing that Trump would promise whatever Kim wanted to hear and then do whatever Trump wants to do.
delta1 Offline
#23 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,778
The South Koreans were the first to mention the denuclearization of the entire peninsula, when they announced that KJU was willing to meet with Trump during their visit to the WH a couple of months ago. He (Moon) and the SK leaders are not getting much credit for their part in lowering the loud talk and starting some quiet diplomacy there...

It's in Moon's interest to reduce the hostility level and the amount of weaponry on all sides of the Korean Peninsula. He's got much more to lose if bombs start flying.


I miss the days of Reagan's GOP...when the cons believed it was a good thing for all sides and the world to limit the arms race. It was his finest achievement.
Speyside Offline
#24 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
The Iran deal was flawed beyond reason from day 1. 24 days notice had to be given for inspections. If you think Iran cannot sanitize a facility in 24 days you are blind to the truth. The right decision was made to scrap this mess.
teedubbya Offline
#25 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
tailgater wrote:
Trust, but verify.

Trump is being upfront regarding NK.
Obama ignored the "verify" part with Iran.


And Trump is us. Just like Obama was us back when he overrode Congress to enter into the deal initially.




Huh... what are the particulars of the Trump NK deal again? Where does it talk about being upfront or verifying. For that matter where did the iran deal say no verification. I know some of the blogsphere says that but I don't turn to Mort for my info.
teedubbya Offline
#26 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Speyside wrote:
The Iran deal was flawed beyond reason from day 1. 24 days notice had to be given for inspections. If you think Iran cannot sanitize a facility in 24 days you are blind to the truth. The right decision was made to scrap this mess.



What difference does it make anyway when we can simply say we don't believe them or the inspectors?

Signed Hans Blix
tailgater Offline
#27 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
teedubbya wrote:
Huh... what are the particulars of the Trump NK deal again? Where does it talk about being upfront or verifying. For that matter where did the iran deal say no verification. I know some of the blogsphere says that but I don't turn to Mort for my info.


I don't know the details.
Trump has remained the aggressor in these discussions. He isn't kissing NK butt like Obama did with Iran.
None of us know all the details, but when an Iran deal includes a month's notice for inspections, and provides hundreds of billions of US dollars up front that isn't a level playing field from the very start. Now with Israeli intel at the 11th hour, I think pulling out is the right decision.
Even the dems didn't push to implement Obama's deal. He had to do it on his own.

I don't trust the moonbeam in NK.
But thankfully, neither does our President.

I'm actually more afraid that Trump will pizz him off and shatter the deal than I am of signing a deal and not monitoring them properly.

But that's just my ample gut feeling.


delta1 Offline
#28 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,778
Here is an explanation of the components of the Iran Nuclear deal. Claim 7 was the most persuasive to me, for keeping the deal...and why I think that our withdrawal nudges us closer to a "military solution to a nuclear Iran"

https://armscontrolcenter.org/the-real-facts-on-the-iran-nuclear-negotiations/
teedubbya Offline
#29 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
tailgater wrote:
I don't know the details.
Trump has remained the aggressor in these discussions. He isn't kissing NK butt like Obama did with Iran.
None of us know all the details, but when an Iran deal includes a month's notice for inspections, and provides hundreds of billions of US dollars up front that isn't a level playing field from the very start. Now with Israeli intel at the 11th hour, I think pulling out is the right decision.
Even the dems didn't push to implement Obama's deal. He had to do it on his own.

I don't trust the moonbeam in NK.
But thankfully, neither does our President.

I'm actually more afraid that Trump will pizz him off and shatter the deal than I am of signing a deal and not monitoring them properly.

But that's just my ample gut feeling.




That right there is void of any supporting fact.

There are no agreements, they are at the very beginning and may or may not even happen.

You like Trump but not Obama. Thats all you are really saying.
frankj1 Offline
#30 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
everyone seems much more knowledgeable than me about the details, but I know one major error...this is/was not an Iran-USA deal.

We are one of many nations.
tailgater Offline
#31 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
Tw
Re 29
I don't "like" trump. Never cared for him. Never watched his TV. Stay in his hotel.
But I like his political ideas. Despite his tactics. I like things that are effective.

Conversely, I like Obama the man. The classy public persona.
But despise his politics.

I disliked the Iran deal from day one.

Your post is simplistic and misses the major points.

I missed that.
Welcome back.
frankj1 Offline
#32 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
can TW come to dinner wif us?
teedubbya Offline
#33 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
tailgater wrote:
Tw
Re 29
I don't "like" trump. Never cared for him. Never watched his TV. Stay in his hotel.
But I like his political ideas. Despite his tactics. I like things that are effective.

Conversely, I like Obama the man. The classy public persona.
But despise his politics.

I disliked the Iran deal from day one.

Your post is simplistic and misses the major points.

I missed that.
Welcome back.



Lol. I was talking about as President you like trump not obama. TV shows and hotels have nothing to do with it. Talk about simplistic and missing major points.

Obama kisses butt of Iran and comes up with a bad deal (it’s not a US or Obama deal.... but we are a part of it) but Trump doesn’t (on a deal that hasn’t even begun to be negotiated yet)

The non existent deal (or efforts behind it) has distinct characteristics that make it better than the exisistent deal.

Yup. You like trump not obama (not as a bedmate or buddy.... I don’t know you that well).

Let’s make it really simple. Obama wanted to kiss Iran’s but but Trump wants to be really really tough with NK. If you think that’s factual, non biased or remotely true then you are living in a fantasy.

Have fun at dinner.
DrafterX Offline
#34 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,536
I wanna go... Mellow
frankj1 Offline
#35 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
DrafterX wrote:
I wanna go... Mellow

sounds like tw can't make it.
you still wanna come?
DrafterX Offline
#36 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,536
Of course.. we can get TW somethin to go in one of those tin foil chikens.. Mellow
tailgater Offline
#37 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
frankj1 wrote:
can TW come to dinner wif us?


As long as I'm not behind him in the buffet.
tailgater Offline
#38 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
teedubbya wrote:
Lol. I was talking about as President you like trump not obama. TV shows and hotels have nothing to do with it. Talk about simplistic and missing major points.

Obama kisses butt of Iran and comes up with a bad deal (it’s not a US or Obama deal.... but we are a part of it) but Trump doesn’t (on a deal that hasn’t even begun to be negotiated yet)

The non existent deal (or efforts behind it) has distinct characteristics that make it better than the exisistent deal.

Yup. You like trump not obama (not as a bedmate or buddy.... I don’t know you that well).

Let’s make it really simple. Obama wanted to kiss Iran’s but but Trump wants to be really really tough with NK. If you think that’s factual, non biased or remotely true then you are living in a fantasy.

Have fun at dinner.


Iran Deal: The United States gave $250 Billion dollars. We'll ask nicely for them to only use nuclear capacity for good energy. (you know, because they don't have resources like oil...). And we'll keep a careful eye on your weapons, but with ample notice before we inspect anything.

In the meantime, Trump took his oath while Moonbeam NK was testing intercontinental ballistic missiles. Japan and Hawaii were on high alert. They held parades for the weapons. The only one allowed to speak with Moonbeam was Dennis Rodman. Things couldn't have looked worse.

We know we can't trust kim moonbeam on his word. We'll be vigilant on that, and if we're not then I'll change my opinion on this matter.
There was never any such plan for vigilance with Iran. Which is why I opposed it from day one.

You say it's politics.
I'm telling you it's the details.

You want the game to be over before you choose a side.
But you're still invited to dinner.
Frank's paying.





teedubbya Offline
#39 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
There are no details and those you site about the Iran deal are skewed. You are not playing this down the middle or just being logical. You give zero benefit of the doubt to Bammy and a ton to Trump. You certainly are not thinking like Spock.

Me and buffets. Ironically the person in front of me has it just as bad as the person behind me.



Phil222 Offline
#40 Posted:
Joined: 10-01-2017
Posts: 1,911
TG, did we really give them $250 billion?

I thought that the money Iran recieved was technically theirs anyways, (frozen money, and money from an unfulfilled weapons deal from before the Iranian people overthrew our puppet over there). I think Obama actually paid them way less than what we could have ended up owing them. I'm not an expert on this deal, but it seemed like one of Obama's better accomplishments to me. (Might not have happened without U.S. involvement)

I have not been following the news; has Trump mentioned what he disliked about the deal or what he plans to do to improve upon it?
DrafterX Offline
#41 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,536
Did we ever fine them or anything for keeping our embassy and peoples hostage for all those years.. I wouldn't give them a dime.. Not talking
Phil222 Offline
#42 Posted:
Joined: 10-01-2017
Posts: 1,911
DrafterX wrote:
Did we ever fine them or anything for keeping our embassy and peoples hostage for all those years.


Yes, I think we did.
delta1 Offline
#43 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,778
Here are the key elements of the Iran Nuclear deal. Trump and the cons will not give them any publicity, because, according to all our allies and the experts, they have been effective, and undercuts Trump's claim that "it is a disaster".


from: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655

Signatories: Iran, US, UK, China, France, Germany, Russia

1) international economic sanctions imposed on Iran would be lifted, allowing Iran to regain frozen assets of about $100 Billion and to resume selling petroleum on the world market

2) Iran will limit use of its centrifuges, with about 20,000 removed, allowed to use only oldest and least efficient 5,060, which are incapable of producing weapons-grade uranium...for 15 years

3) Iran will reduce its uranium stockpile by 98% (it transferred about 90% to Russia). Iran will not have any weapon-grade uranium, enriched to 90%. It may keep only 3.67% enriched uranium, for 15 years

4) Iran will re-design its newest nuclear reactor at Arak, so that it will not produce heavy water containing weapons-grade plutonium, for 15 years

5) Verification. International Atomic Energy Agency inspections are allowed access anywhere in Iran for 15 years, and Iran will have 24 days to comply with any request.


The removal of Iran's stockpile of weapons-grade enriched uranium and the centifuges necessary to produce it pushes the amount of time to produce enough plutonium to create a bomb to more than one year, well beyond the 24 day compliance standard.
teedubbya Offline
#44 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
We are simply violating our end of the deal. It’s not like we are withdrawing or coming up with something new. We will still be a signatory we just won’t honor our signature or commitment. We had a deal.

But this could be a good move. If the other signatories can convince Iran to not be like the US and to be good to their word we can benefit from that. We can get the benefit without giving anything. This is a trump business pattern and it could work.

Or the whole thing could fall apart and we’d be back to where we were before the deal. I think some folks forget where that was.

We’ll see. I don’t like trump but hope this works out like him and Bolton think. We sure don’t need another war.

delta1 Offline
#45 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,778
I'm not seeing how the US benefits. We'll be imposing new sanctions but can pressure only US companies to comply, so we aren't able to stop all trade with Iran, only ours. Not sure if that is a net loss or net benefit. How, and at what cost, will we impose sanctions? How effective will lone US sanctions be if Iran is free to trade with the rest of the world?

Will the pro-west Iranians become anti-US because of this, slowing or stopping the move towards westernization, or at least friendly relations, in that country? There are terrorists in Iran, no doubt, but how does removing our presence there help us identify and neutralize them?

Hopefully the remaining countries can also be able to gather intel on Iranian terrorists, as I am sure we've been doing while we were still in. We sure can't trust the Russians, who seem to be cooperating with Iran, so this is also a potentially big loss to us.

Hopefully the other five can maintain and bankroll the deal on their own, with the IAEA inspections (spy ops?) being the key to keeping the deal alive.



I guess our main benefit is that we pocket our share of the inspections expenses...what a deal!
frankj1 Offline
#46 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
so the part I liked, 10 years to foster change in Tran, is really 15 years...even less short term.

This move just may be a Trump/Bibi ploy...again I am torn as I do believe Iran's gov't as currently exists, is dedicated to removing Israel from the face of the earth.
Speyside Offline
#47 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
The Iran deal was a non binding political agreement. Obama did this because he did not have to have congressional approval for such an agreement. Trump violated nothing and did not go back on anything. He simply exercised our right to discontinue this agreement.

Al, you are blowing smoke. In 24 days any site could be sanitized. Nuclear material is transportable. As would be all of the equipment. If you cannot present a reasonable argument of why any site cannot be sanitized in 24 days then I am calling BS.
frankj1 Offline
#48 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,215
google earth cameras and Israeli intelligence.
Buckwheat Offline
#49 Posted:
Joined: 04-15-2004
Posts: 12,251
gummy jones wrote:
....

But mankind is a wretched beast, so eventually...


"No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity."
"But I know none, and therefore am no beast." fog
Phil222 Offline
#50 Posted:
Joined: 10-01-2017
Posts: 1,911
Speyside wrote:
In 24 days any site could be sanitized. Nuclear material is transportable. As would be all of the equipment. If you cannot present a reasonable argument of why any site cannot be sanitized in 24 days then I am calling BS.


Why it’s impossible to hide nuclear work in 24 days – or 24 years

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/08/13/why-its-impossible-to-hide-nuclear-work-in-24-days-or-24-years/

"The bottom line is that it is almost impossible to get away with messing around with nuclear materials. Nuclear fingerprints are not removable."

“You cannot get rid of them by cleaning,” Stephan Vogt, head of the atomic agency’s Environmental Sample Laboratory told Reuters in 2013. “You cannot dilute them to the extent that we will not be able to pick them up. It is just a matter of time,” he stated, before the atomic energy agency detects any incriminating residue."

"Twenty-nine top U.S. scientists — including Nobel Prize winners, senior experts in arms control and former White House science advisers – wrote to President Barack Obama this past weekend to praise the Iran deal. They called it “technically sound, stringent and innovative.” Instead of listening to the complaints about the 24-day meme, Congress should pay heed to these experts."
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