KingoftheCove wrote:Just a little bump....
Chit is spiraling just about how many were figuring it would.
Don’t worry though.........the flu is worse.........
Here’s the difference azzhats.
-This “bug” is novel to us.........
- 20+ percent of infected need critical care
- 2% death rate.......currently
Once health care systems are overloaded, which won’t take long.......death rate will climb to 10+ percent in western countries, 25+%, in many other places.
Economic and social impact?
Heh.........that’s where the REAL chit will happen.
Things in China are waaaay worse than most want to believe.
That nonsense about new case numbers there going down? Total BS.
Now it’s taking hold all over.
I’ll bump this thread again in a couple weeks, and we’ll see where we are...
Praying for an efficacious vaccine (but I thinks it’s already too late)....
"Novel" to us isn't a real issue. Every flu virus is "novel" to us. That's why we need a vaccine every year. This is a modification of the same virus that gives us SARS, MERS and the common cold. There's a wide range of infectiousness and fatality in the pedigree.
People infected need to be cared for, and yes, if it spreads to the US it will have an impact on our health infrastructure. But to think that'll cause it to climb to 25% death rate is way too optimistic. I doubt in the end we'll climb much above 5%
The most interesting thing about this one is the infectiousness. People are carrying it without any symptoms, and spreading it.
And ironically, China has done a decent job (and is continuing to do so) of locking it down. When I talk to my friends there, everyone is essentially kept in their apartment buildings. People aren't going to work. Households are allowed to assign 1 person who may leave the house 1 day a week to get groceries. This is a level of national quarantine which would be impossible in the US. It has spread from china already though, so their efforts are a bit like closing the barn door after the horse escaped (from a global perspective at least).
Anyway... we can check back on this in a month