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Corona Virus
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victor809 Offline
#701 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 3:27 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Speyside wrote:
What way does hurting the economy cost lives. I am curious. Please be specific. I am tired of the idiotic clams that using non proved medications for COVID 19 medicines can't hurt anyone. Tell that to people with Lupus who can't buy their medicine. Now telling me that hurting the economy kills is another idiotic idea. Back it up with facts, not internet rambling, or political sabre rattling, but facts. Oh, by the way to date these untested for COVID 19 medications have not proved that they make a numerical improvent and that is a FACT!


I mean, everything else being equal, poverty will cause some people to die.

There are a lot of people who have lost all income due to this pandemic, it's not impossible to imagine that some of them either 1 - can't afford their medication necessary to stay alive, or 2 - may get some injury or illness during the time they are unemployed, which they cannot afford to address, and put off until it's fatal (an easy example may be people putting off going to the Dr for something which turns out to be a cancer they could have treated if they went when it was early stage)

The problem is, in the real world there's always a bit of everything.

Tanking the economy to reduce a pandemic impact, or letting a pandemic hit full-blast, there's going to be those people on the margins who will take it in the shorts regardless
victor809 Offline
#702 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 3:28 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
ah, puddin' got to it before I did
teedubbya Offline
#703 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 3:37 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Well the vaccine is obvious. To be completely honest (eliminating the I hope stuff and relying on the I know stuff) I don’t really think any magical treatment of any scale will beat the immunization out. But it could. I’m shocked Bill Gates is as intimately familiar with this. I figured he just threw coin at it but he really knows his stuff.

I’d heard some anecdotal reinfection rumors from sources I don’t trust. It is possible. I’d like to see that South Korea data you point to because I’ve not seen anything legitimate confirming that and have direct access to that sort of thing.

Also as an aside, for what it’s worth I’m seeing lots of cases where folks got worse and died on the malaria drug (not just from danm but many cases folks I know are treating) but again it is anecdotal and I put as much weight in it in as the other direction. It’s not a matter of believe or feel to me. This is medicine and science. My hope (back to hope not know) is for a couple other treatments.

Some of the media and the president are playing with fire on the medical front. It’s not their wheelhouse. But they will just pretend they didn’t later and folks will go along with it.
Speyside Offline
#704 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 4:03 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Victor, you say some on the margins. How does this compare to the numbers if shelter in place was not mandated. The real question is will slowing the infection rate lower the death count. If it does then it was the correct choice, if not then it wasnt. But this logicless BS needs to end. I know you are shaking it up to get some chuckles, but you of all people know assumptions without data are pure BS.
victor809 Offline
#705 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 4:11 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Speyside wrote:
Victor, you say some on the margins. How does this compare to the numbers if shelter in place was not mandated. The real question is will slowing the infection rate lower the death count. If it does then it was the correct choice, if not then it wasnt. But this logicless BS needs to end. I know you are shaking it up to get some chuckles, but you of all people know assumptions without data are pure BS.


Like I said before, "everything else being equal". I was careful to avoid comparing the two situations, because I think a lot of the same people (or different subsets of the same general group, "people living paycheck to paycheck") will die in either situation.

I don't know how they compare, or would compare. But it's fair to say that people will die from massive economic turbulence. It's also fair to say people will die from general stay at home/isolation procedures. And it's fair to say that people will die from letting the coronavirus run unchecked.

Anyone saying they know which choice will have the fewest people die, or the lowest economic impact, or both, is lying to you. About the only part of this that we've got an understanding on is the disease modeling. I don't think anyone understands the full financial implications of any of the possible choices.
delta1 Offline
#706 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 4:12 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,780
opening up for business without knowing which people in your workforce are infected is dangerous to the long term health of the company, and if done on a nationwide scale is flirting with an actual disaster...

who knows which/ or how many of your employees will get sick and die...what if it is a key person who is the tentpole of the operation?

it makes economic sense to test them all before going back to work until a vaccine is developed...and decide whether or not to open while quarantining the positives



wonder if UK PM BoJo now regrets listening to the experts who told him to leave everything open and let nature takes its course?
Speyside Offline
#707 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 4:31 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Also, the economic modeling of this being allowed to run rampant is truely frightening. The economic modeling using firm shelter in place is bad, but significantly less so. On the other hand we would lose more of the fringe and stupid so there is that.
Speyside Offline
#708 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 4:36 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Ok, now I get what you are saying. I mistakenly tied what you are saying to mittens which was inaccurate. I will try to find the financial modeling I found earlier and post a link here. It was interesting to say the least. The worst case scenario is truely frightening.
teedubbya Offline
#709 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 4:47 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I heard peter Navarro is doing trumps prostate exam next year
delta1 Offline
#710 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 4:50 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,780
he's gonna use his head instead of a finger...
teedubbya Offline
#711 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 5:01 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
His update are worthless
teedubbya Offline
#712 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 5:03 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
And he just lied again
MACS Offline
#713 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 5:15 PM EST
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,769
I think it's safe to say that few of us actually trust the government in just about anything.

Aaaaand here we are allowing the government to dictate our every move... or lack of movement. Shutting down private business. Dictating procedures to the ones 'they' deem necessary.

I get it. It's serious. It's got me nervous now and if I've been exposed to it, so have my wife and BIL. I don't have a travel trailer to shelter in. All I have is my house.

Sacrificing freedom for safety... pretty sure Ben Franklin said we deserve neither.
Speyside Offline
#714 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 5:19 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Do your truely ever expect him not to lie? I hope for him not to lie, but expect him to lie. All that his press briefings are is free publicity for campaign really issues. Do yourself a favor, pour a drink, consider it the Donald Trump variety hour, and everyone on the show is a lier.
teedubbya Offline
#715 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 5:31 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Been reading a lot about smallpox lately and went off on a tangent reading about Franklin last week. He was pro inoculation but his kid didn’t get one and died. There is a theory he fled to England to escape the plague the colonies couldn’t get their arms around.
teedubbya Offline
#716 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 5:31 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
all Of a sudden OIG is biased politically and you must ignore their findings.

Unreal.
frankj1 Offline
#717 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 9:33 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
victor809 wrote:
Course not. But it's also not lives vs dollars.
People dying or being hospitalized en mass also costs money. Treating 100k people all at once costs more than treating 20k every 2 weeks over the course of 2 months (or however it would be dragged out) because scaling up the necessary medical equipment is a resource cost.
People being hospitalized in huge amounts is a large disruption to our economy. These are people who may not be insured, will not be able to make their rent or mortgage payments etc etc.

Like I said. If it was just "let some extra people die and be able to keep the economy trucking along" I'd throw all you old and/or co-morbid people under the economy bus... (except frank, we'll keep frank quarantined for our nation's good). But someone made good arguments to me that letting a bunch of people die/get sick in the short term will still have the economic chaos we're seeing now, but with extra added medical chaos.

I've been contacted about the expected need to repopulate...and I am a Patriot.
teedubbya Offline
#718 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 9:58 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Patriots settle for BJs. Hard to procreate that way.
frankj1 Offline
#719 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 10:01 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
fluffin' ain't for finishin'
izonfire Offline
#720 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 10:02 PM EST
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,647
With TB in TB, not a good time to be a Patriot...
teedubbya Offline
#721 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 10:04 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Yea but bob is krafty
izonfire Offline
#722 Posted: Mon, Apr 6 2020, 10:10 PM EST
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,647
teedubbya wrote:
Yea but bob is krafty

He always goes for the happy ending...
frankj1 Offline
#723 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 6:04 AM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
he did a great thing here though.
teedubbya Offline
#724 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 6:18 AM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Yes he did.
frankj1 Offline
#725 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 8:41 AM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
and he likes sex
victor809 Offline
#726 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:24 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Curve is starting to look like the experts may be correct.... (go figure, people who studied something for years and years actually understanding a topic better than the general public and cigar forums)

With the past two day's new cases numbers being almost flat-ish... we may be at the peak this week.


.... or we're just doing a sh#tty job of testing and we'll find out later that it's everywhere.
teedubbya Offline
#727 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:27 AM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Or both
victor809 Offline
#728 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:30 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Ever the optimist Tee....

With NYC now essentially shrugging their shoulders at deaths at home, we have officially reached the "We will never know how many people COVID-19 actually killed" stage of the pandemic.

That's kinda fun.

(but in reality's its just +200 x every day since Saturday or something like that)
teedubbya Offline
#729 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:32 AM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Well it is possible our testing sucks but our efforts are working
teedubbya Offline
#730 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:33 AM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
And the death rate and infection rate is way under reported and always will be.
victor809 Offline
#731 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:38 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
teedubbya wrote:
And the death rate and infection rate is way under reported and always will be.


Yeah. but it's fun to point it out.
teedubbya Offline
#732 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:41 AM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Oh I get it. I say it in general but this admins failure over testing amplifies that. We aren’t even close.
teedubbya Offline
#733 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:41 AM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
If it was bammy the wackos would say it’s intentional.
victor809 Offline
#734 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 10:43 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Yeah.... at least no one believes trump's smart enough to intentionally cause death.
opelmanta1900 Offline
#735 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 11:24 AM EST
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
he's the chunk of metal by which we prove or disprove the efficacy of our system...
MACS Offline
#736 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 1:16 PM EST
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,769
US has 369,069 confirmed cases and 11,008 deaths so far. If my math is correct, that's 3% no?

And that's with limited testing.
victor809 Offline
#737 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 1:22 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
MACS wrote:
US has 369,069 confirmed cases and 11,008 deaths so far. If my math is correct, that's 3% no?

And that's with limited testing.


Yeah...
But keep in mind the deaths is at least 600+ more now that NYC is no longer testing their dead. They were estimating (back on Sat I think) 200 a day untested dead due to COVID-19.

I think I remember Danm saying they weren't testing their dead at the hospital either (I may be misremembering so don't quote me on that).... essentially we're missing testing on both the living and dead side of things.

We have passed the point where we can get an accurate count. So the 3% is "good enough" back of the napkin.


TL/DR I wouldn't purposely estimate it lower due to untested living.... because we're also missing some of the dead.

Also... most current numbers I see are 386,571 cases 12,274 dead (still about 3%)
victor809 Offline
#738 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 1:24 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Today already is the highest death toll and it's only 130pm Central. We're at 1403 dead (this is again NOT counting the NYC deaths at home, which were counted in previous days).... Easily on track to top 1500... may even close in on 2k.
MACS Offline
#739 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 1:34 PM EST
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,769
I'm still baffled at how our county knows that our facility now has 37 fn positives, and they have set up testing for the public but aren't testing everyone in our facility.

This is lawsuit type negligence.
fishinguitarman Offline
#740 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 1:48 PM EST
Joined: 07-29-2006
Posts: 69,148
Maybe because you’re not worth testing?
MACS Offline
#741 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 2:04 PM EST
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,769
fishinguitarman wrote:
Maybe because you’re not worth testing?


LOL I'm sorry but that actually made me laugh out loud... oh, boy. I needed that... thank you. lol
fishinguitarman Offline
#742 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 2:07 PM EST
Joined: 07-29-2006
Posts: 69,148
👍😂
fishinguitarman Offline
#743 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 2:10 PM EST
Joined: 07-29-2006
Posts: 69,148
I’m glad SOMEBODY is smart enough to figure me out! 🤠🤣
chazbo Offline
#744 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 4:29 PM EST
Joined: 01-21-2007
Posts: 8,160
Starting to wonder if this Virus is just a defection of something much bigger going on🤔 Depression 2020?
I know Dan works on the front line but I’m seeing footage from folks all over the country showing empty hospitals.
For sure the media is running wild with the virus but millions of folks are out of work and many many businesses will not survive this. How the hell can we know the truth! The virus doesn’t scare me half as much as what is going on with the world’s economy.
I personally thank all the folks who have to be on the front line of the virus, stay safe🙏🏻
MACS Offline
#745 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 4:47 PM EST
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,769
Drive thru testing in the county... I just got an appointment for 0945 Thursday morning.

They have a questionaire first to see if you qualify.
delta1 Offline
#746 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 5:03 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,780
fishinguitarman wrote:
I’m glad SOMEBODY is smart enough to figure me out! 🤠🤣


yo momma
opelmanta1900 Offline
#747 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 5:46 PM EST
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
MACS wrote:
Drive thru testing in the county... I just got an appointment for 0945 Thursday morning.

They have a questionaire first to see if you qualify.

tell them you have hiv... they can't tell anyone else...
delta1 Offline
#748 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 5:53 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,780
haha...they won't test just anyone....you have to meet the qualifications...what about STDs?
MACS Offline
#749 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 5:57 PM EST
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,769
Just got an e-mail that they are presuming everyone at our facility has been exposed... but continue to go to work until you show symptoms, then report it to your supervisor to get tested.

Brilliant.
delta1 Offline
#750 Posted: Tue, Apr 7 2020, 5:57 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,780
honestly, we should be regularly testing all people who continue to go to work serving the public: public safety peeps like MACS, police, fire and EMT; doctors and nurses, grocers and others providing food, delivery peeps, pharmacists, USPS...don't want an infected person among them to weaken his team or be a super spreader...
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