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Corona Virus
Pudding Mittens Offline
#151 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
victor809 wrote:
I am assuming off-label prescriptions can put Dr's at risk for lawsuits

Yep, which is why you can bet your ass that the doctors will require patients who want the treatment to sign lengthy and very detailed waivers and "hold harmless" agreements chock full of clearly-presented details of risks and such, which should overcome that problem.
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victor809 Offline
#152 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Pudding Mittens wrote:
Yep, which is why you can bet your ass that the doctors will require patients who want the treatment to sign lengthy and very detailed waivers and "hold harmless" agreements chock full of clearly-presented details of risks and such, which should overcome that problem.
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We'll see. I'm still voting COVID-19 2020, but you may be right.
teedubbya Offline
#153 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I think there is a way over the top optimism but WTF its refreshing
Pudding Mittens Offline
#154 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
.
Having a closer look at the study, it turns out that "100% cure rate at 6 days" was only 6 patients. Still impressive, and it screams, "do a bigger study NOW!", but along with methodological flaws in the study due to its (understandable) hastiness, it's not as conclusive as it appeared at first glance.

Still, it might be the "real deal". Every person it's been tried on was virus-free within 6 days, and most within 5 days actually. Even though it's only 6 people, it's a rather startling result and very promising.

Must wait and see. The nice thing is, with only a 6-day duration, large-scale studies can be run quickly, in less than a week, plus setup time and data analysis time.

If it ends up being the "real deal" and enters widespread use, the really cool thing is that the azithromycin will not only work along with the anti-malarial drug to cure, but it will also simultaneously prevent secondary bacterial respiratory infections as a bonus. Curing while protecting from some kinds of complications, a real "one-two punch".
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frankj1 Offline
#155 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
spare me your TDS accusations, but this was just plain sad/funny if you enjoy seeing someone struggle to read a word. It even evoked empathy, I will admit.

Trump was trying his best to read news of this drug out loud, on his first attempt he gave in and called it "roquine"
then he haltingly added "some may call it hydroxychloroquine"...as if it was an alternate pronunciation.

izonfire Offline
#156 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
Pudding Mittens wrote:
.
Having a closer look at the study, it turns out that "100% cure rate at 6 days" was only 6 patients. Still impressive, and it screams, "do a bigger study NOW!", but along with methodological flaws in the study due to its (understandable) hastiness, it's not as conclusive as it appeared at first glance.

Still, it might be the "real deal". Every person it's been tried on was virus-free within 6 days, and most within 5 days actually. Even though it's only 6 people, it's a rather startling result and very promising.

Must wait and see. The nice thing is, with only a 6-day duration, large-scale studies can be run quickly, in less than a week, plus setup time and data analysis time.

If it ends up being the "real deal" and enters widespread use, the really cool thing is that the azithromycin will not only work along with the anti-malarial drug to cure, but it will also simultaneously prevent secondary bacterial respiratory infections as a bonus. Curing while protecting from some kinds of complications, a real "one-two punch".
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Seems very promising.
Wish I was in the lab now...
teedubbya Offline
#157 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Meh. Hopefully but it also seems like wishful thinking.

Signed cynical mc Scrooge Butthole lol.
izonfire Offline
#158 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
teedubbya wrote:
Meh. Hopefully but it also seems like wishful thinking.

Signed cynical mc Scrooge Butthole lol.

And just to think not so many months ago,
you were drooling on a steel table in Cleveland.

Turn that frown upside down buttmunch!
teedubbya Offline
#159 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Fauci just took my optimism away. I don’t think there is a magic pill.

Sorry.
delta1 Offline
#160 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
we're in for a long slog...gonna get worse...
Speyside Offline
#161 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Mittens, the problem is just 6 people. The next 6 could all die. We don't have time for the FDA red tape and stop signs, but we have to know the stuff works before giving it to masses of people.
izonfire Offline
#162 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
teedubbya wrote:
Fauci just took my optimism away. I don’t think there is a magic pill.

Sorry.

No sorries brother.
I wanted to believe it.

Not giving up hope,
but preparing for the worst
Pudding Mittens Offline
#163 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
.
A pal called me and mentioned that Africa has a very, very low number of coronavirus cases.... and he noted that it also makes very widespread use of chloroquine / hydroxychloroquine both to prevent and treat malaria.

Of course there are other factors aplenty:

1. have fewer people from infected nations traveled to Africa?
2. population density issues
3. frequency/range of intracontinent travel by the population
4. frequency and amount of close-range socializing there
5. genetic differences
6. probable severe lack of testing in many areas
7. etc. etc. etc.

...but hmmmmm.... it's mighty interesting, isn't it?

Some areas of Africa use it more than others. I would LOVE to see an analysis of coronavirus cases by region compared to chloroquine / hydroxychloroquine usage levels by region, for all of Africa. That'd be very interesting indeed. What if the areas with the least cases take the stuff the most and vice-versa?

Just now they had a prominent M.D. on Fox News Channel being interviewed, and he seemed very optimistic about hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, pointing out that not only did it cure 100% of the six people in the small French study, but that other recent studies in China and Australia had shown impressive effects as well. It's not just the small French study!

He also confirmed that yes, both these drugs are easy and cheap to make in massive amounts quickly.

Let's hope this is the real deal, guys!

teedubbya wrote:
Fauci just took my optimism away. I don’t think there is a magic pill.

Sorry.

Fauci takes everyone's optimism away. He tends toward the negative side of things.... which is good sometimes. But he doesn't know anything more than anyone else about this two-drug combination yet. We need a bigger study, and we're going to get it soon. Then we'll know.

Speyside wrote:
Mittens, the problem is just 6 people. The next 6 could all die.

Six at 100% cure PLUS similar results out of China and Australia, and again oddly Africa is barely hit... is it other factors, or the fact that lots of them take chloroquine / hydroxychloroquine already?

These extra data points make the six cured people a bit more compelling.

Wait and see though. Trump has mentioned that it's full-steam-ahead on this, so let's see what shakes out.

Quote:
We don't have time for the FDA red tape and stop signs, but we have to know the stuff works before giving it to masses of people.

Not if they have little left to lose and are willing to sign waivers.
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izonfire Offline
#164 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
I’ll follow the green line...
USNGunner Offline
#165 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
izonfire wrote:
I’ll follow the green mile...



Yeah, probably. We'll miss you. Think
izonfire Offline
#166 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
USNGunner wrote:
Yeah, probably. We'll miss you. Think

Oh, I’m taking you with me brother...
victor809 Offline
#167 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Pudding Mittens wrote:
.
A pal called me and mentioned that Africa has a very, very low number of coronavirus cases.... and he noted that it also makes very widespread use of chloroquine / hydroxychloroquine both to prevent and treat malaria.


.


Could be as simple as they aren't testing. You'd be amazed at how many people in your population can not die of a disease if you never verify they had it.
MACS Offline
#168 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
I'm pretty much convinced that when I go back to work next week it's probably a foregone conclusion.

I also don't think it'll kill me because I'm relatively healthy and have no immune system issues.
ZRX1200 Offline
#169 Posted:
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,476
Or it could be there’s more heat there in Africa right now making it more difficult for the virus to survive outside a host
victor809 Offline
#170 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Peanutbutter.

Putting this somewhere else
teedubbya Offline
#171 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Or there could be no established causality and we are grasping at straws for something hopeful.
8trackdisco Offline
#172 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
MACS wrote:
I'm pretty much convinced that when I go back to work next week it's probably a foregone conclusion.

I also don't think it'll kill me because I'm relatively healthy and have no immune system issues.


Why exactly are you going back to work at a place where....
- you hate it
- dangerous
- corona hot spot
- and you are quitting in 6 weeks anyway.

You Sir..... are a blooming idiot.

Offense intended.
victor809 Offline
#173 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Oh don't get upset at MaCS. He might survive.
8trackdisco Offline
#174 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
victor809 wrote:
Oh don't get upset at MaCS. He might survive.


I’m more concerned for you.......
victor809 Offline
#175 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
8trackdisco wrote:
I’m more concerned for you.......


I'm worried I might survive too.
8trackdisco Offline
#176 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
Oh no!.... Wisconsin has lost their minds. They are mandating the closure of ......... massage parlors.

With all the stresses, massages are critical. A good massage... hell, even a bad one!
victor809 Offline
#177 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
8trackdisco wrote:
Oh no!.... Wisconsin has lost their minds. They are mandating the closure of ......... massage parlors.

With all the stresses, hand jobs are critical. A good hand job... hell, even a bad one!


FIFY
MACS Offline
#178 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
8trackdisco wrote:
Why exactly are you going back to work at a place where....
- you hate it
- dangerous
- corona hot spot
- and you are retiring in 8 weeks anyway.

You Sir..... are a blooming idiot.

Offense intended.


Fixed that for you...

If I go back and work the last 2 months, it'll go by quickly, and even if they're only paying me 50% of my sick time when I retire... it's still $7,500-$8,000 and it'll go into my 401a along with my vacation time. That's a fat chunk o change when you add them together, buddy. And since I won't be contributing to my investments after May 20 it'll max me out for CY2020 when you add my cash-outs to what I've put in so far.
8trackdisco Offline
#179 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
victor809 wrote:
I'm worried I might survive too.


Prayers sent?Eh?
rfenst Offline
#180 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
It took all three of her children (one a pediatrician) to convince my 81 mother to stop working. She's part-time at an auto dealership that must be a petri dish. Hope she gets her job back...
8trackdisco Offline
#181 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
MACS wrote:
Fixed that for you...

If I go back and work the last 2 months, it'll go by quickly, and even if they're only paying me 50% of my sick time when I retire... it's still $7,500-$8,000 and it'll go into my 401a along with my vacation time. That's a fat chunk o change when you add them together, buddy. And since I won't be contributing to my investments after May 20 it'll max me out for CY2020 when you add my cash-outs to what I've put in so far.


Still think you are crazy.
8trackdisco Offline
#182 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
rfenst wrote:
It took all three of her children (one a pediatrician) to convince my 81 mother to stop working. She's part-time at an auto dealership that must be a petri dish. Hope she gets her job back...


All auto dealers are Petri dishes.
MACS Offline
#183 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
8trackdisco wrote:
Still think you are crazy.


Well, you've met me, so....
rfenst Offline
#184 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
8trackdisco wrote:
All auto dealers are Petri dishes.

It's a pretty cool Honda dealership. Price on the car is printed in the window of each car. No negotiation. Period. Sales people get bonused on how many units they sell per month, not price of the vehicles. Makes buying a car much less stressful. Take it or leave it.
Pudding Mittens Offline
#185 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
victor809 wrote:
Could be as simple as they aren't testing. You'd be amazed at how many people in your population can not die of a disease if you never verify they had it.

Pudding Mittens wrote:
Of course there are other factors aplenty:

6. probable severe lack of testing in many areas

ZRX1200 wrote:
Or it could be there’s more heat there in Africa right now making it more difficult for the virus to survive outside a host

Excellent point, very well could be a big factor. If so, summer has to get here fast!

At today's press conference, they said they're going to do two things in parallel starting now:

1. Doctors able to prescribe the two drugs off-label for COVID-19
2. A larger-scale formal well-controlled study of the two drugs against COVID-19.

#2 will provide high-quality, high-reliability results on effectiveness within months.

#1, though, should provide a large number of anecdotal results within a week.

The quality of #2 is better than #1, but #1 is going to be much faster and very persuasive if hundreds or thousands of "holy schitt it cured all / almost all my patients in only 6 days!" results start to emerge from doctors in the field.

Prediction: I am a medical layman, but my job and hobbies all involve pattern recognition and interpreting multiple partial data-points to infer conclusions. Data points:

1. French study showing, at 6 days, control (nothing but conventional care) 12.5% cure, anti-malarial only 57% cure, combination 100% cure (but only a 6-patient group got both).

2. Chinese data indicating the anti-malarial is very effective. Grain of salt, it's China, they lie a lot.

3. Australian data indicating the anti-malarial is very effective. Has more weight than China's reports.

4. Almost no COVID-19 in Africa where the anti-malarial is widely used. Many other variables though, likely little testing, need comparision of COVID-19 rates vs. anti-malarial use per-region across Africa to see if there's good correlation, which I don't think anyone's done yet.

5. The anti-malarial drug was seemingly effective against the similar coronavirus SARS, although the data wasn't high-quality and highly-controlled.

6. Azithromycin kills other virii (Zika, Ebola) in vitro, currently unknown if in vivo, and it's also well-known to seemingly help with viral infections in vivo somehow despite being an antibiotic that's only supposed to help bacterial infections. The mechanisms of help against viral infections are not well-understood, but have been widely noted for years, and may be, in whole or in part, related to the in vitro virus-killing action that's been observed.

7. A mechanism of action for the anti-malarial to interfere with viral replication is known.

IMO while each point separately is merely mildly-to-moderately suggestive, considered together, data points #1-7 are collectively persuasive, therefore I predict this two-drug combination will be highly effective and a cure or a mostly/usually-cure.

Dr. Fauci seems to not be a fan of doing what I just did (inferring things from the weight of multiple partial data points) and instead he seems to only want to talk about high-quality conclusive studies, but in this situation, assembling partial data points and making inferences is useful. So don't get too upset when he downplays this.
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USNGunner Offline
#186 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
Pudding Mittens wrote:
Dr. Fauci seems to not be a fan of doing what I just did (inferring things from the weight of multiple partial data points) and instead he seems to only want to talk about high-quality conclusive studies, but in this situation, assembling partial data points and making inferences is useful. So don't get too upset when he downplays this.
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And in a perfect world I would concur. But sometime you have to drop your pants and slide on the ice. Folks are dying, it's worth a shot. Time to sort the bio-mechanics out later. Let's nip this shiite in the bud. Now. Frying pan
Pudding Mittens Offline
#187 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
USNGunner wrote:
And in a perfect world I would concur. But sometime you have to drop your pants and slide on the ice. Folks are dying, it's worth a shot. Time to sort the bio-mechanics out later. Let's nip this shiite in the bud. Now. Frying pan

Agreed 100%. Life-and-death exigent circumstances, ESPECIALLY involving a pair of drugs both with safety profiles well-understood via prior use in hundreds of millions of people for decades, definitely call for loosening data quality standards (within reason) and inferring things from multiple partial or non-perfect data sets.

Lots of "dots" tell a story, we shouldn't be afraid to connect those "dots" and figure out what story that seems to be.

I highly suspect he'll get his high-quality confirmation eventually, but well after lots and lots of anecdotal success reports come flooding in.

But by then, the formal confirmation will be a mere formality, released after the pandemic's abrupt end due to massive distribution and successful use worldwide. Let's hope.

The really cool part is, this two-drug combo may be useful against other coronaviruses or even other classes of virii, leading to cures for common influenza, SARS, MERS, and very possibly whatever the next mutated coronavirus ends up being (COVID-20, 21, etc.)

Fingers crossed, but like Trump, I have a very good feeling about this.
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izonfire Offline
#188 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
Also, you have to consider, if the public is told that this is easily curable, they will all stop isolating, social distancing, wearing masks, and all other precautionary measures thinking that this is over. I mean schitt, even with all the public announcements, there are still plenty of idiots out in the streets who are too stupid to alter their behavior whatsoever. (personally, I feel very strongly that those people should be turned into biofuel, but that's for another discussion)

Perhaps they are strategically holding back information for the good of society. I remain very optimistic, no matter how much TW tries to drag me down...
Pudding Mittens Offline
#189 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
izonfire wrote:
Also, you have to consider, if the public is told that this is easily curable, they will all stop isolating, social distancing, wearing masks, and all other precautionary measures thinking that this is over. I mean schitt, even with all the public announcements, there are still plenty of idiots out in the streets who are too stupid to alter their behavior whatsoever. (personally, I feel very strongly that those people should be turned into biofuel, but that's for another discussion)

Perhaps they are strategically holding back information for the good of society. I remain very optimistic, no matter how much TW tries to drag me down...

Bingo, izonfire. You nailed it.

Connecting dots like these in the mass media, in this situation, can be highly dangerous. The public is mostly uneducated on this complicated and esoteric topic and will naively jump to conclusions with possibly disastrous results.

This kind of thing is where Dr. Fauci's tendencies make good sense. He's very hesitant to say anything before we have real proof, especially with media cameras aimed at him. It's a smart move.

The people who need to know this stuff, the experts working 24x7 to get the proof we need, already know it, they certanly don't need CNN to tell them about it. They're connecting the dots with their expert peers quietly and in private, which is ideal.

This is why I say don't let the official press conferences get you down. More is known, and more is being investigated, than you'll hear said at those events.
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delta1 Offline
#190 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
which makes our CiC, the Wizard of Alls, look even less informed in comparison...
MACS Offline
#191 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
If this crap has been going on in China since November of last year, and we had no idea until this year, I'd be willing to wager it's been here for a whole lot longer than we know; and a lot more mofos have it and have had it and got over it than we even know about.
tonygraz Offline
#192 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,175
We are all going to die !
Pudding Mittens Offline
#193 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
tonygraz wrote:
We are all going to die !

Technically correct, but hopefully of old age!
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Pudding Mittens Offline
#194 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
delta1 wrote:
which makes our CiC, the Wizard of Alls, look even less informed in comparison...

Reading between the lines of what Trump has said in the last two daily press conferences, including little offhand extra clauses and parentheticals he's added to his sentences, I suspect he was told some of this dot-connecting preliminary reasoning by the experts, but understandably in public statements at this time he can only drop hints (e.g. "just a feeling" and such) and can't get into the details.... yet.
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USNGunner Offline
#195 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
MACS wrote:
If this crap has been going on in China since November of last year, and we had no idea until this year, I'd be willing to wager it's been here for a whole lot longer than we know; and a lot more mofos have it and have had it and got over it than we even know about.


That is absolutely true. Which really has me wondering WTF? I'm wondering if the damn thing mutated as it spread.

Because it hammered the shiite out of Italia. Fast. There is a lot of traffic between Europe and China. Why didn't the cork blow sooner? Too much weird stuff going on with this.

Don't know, doesn't matter, gotta ride it out. horse
Speyside Offline
#196 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
How do we know it wasn't in China sooner than November?
teedubbya Offline
#197 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
As for the overly optimistic narrative in here I love it. Hope it’s right.

Occam’s razor usually prevails.
Speyside Offline
#198 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
"Things should be made as simple as possible — but not simpler" Albert Einstein
frankj1 Offline
#199 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
teedubbya wrote:
As for the overly optimistic narrative in here I love it. Hope it’s right.

Occam’s razor usually prevails.

I make all life or death medical decisions based on research posted on a discount cigar forum.
Jaderose taught me to do that years ago.
Speyside Offline
#200 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
And you're still alive? A miracle, a verifiable miracle. The Catholic church will put you up for sainthood. Wait, I forgot, never mind.
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