America's #1 Online Cigar Auction
first, best, biggest!

Last post 4 years ago by tonygraz. 919 replies replies.
19 Pages«<456789101112>»
Corona Virus
teedubbya Offline
#351 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
It’s real.

You know it’s also possible a drug can be taken and someone gets better having nothing to do with the drug.

It’s also possible the next person taking it has catastrophic effects due to it. That’s why the trials are done.

That’s not saying it won’t work. It’s saying it’s not proven

I still hope it’s true.
DrafterX Offline
#352 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
I agree... but i find it interesting how well the country is following shelter in place orders... to some extent anyways... I'm not staying home but limiting my travel... Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#353 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I deal with epidemiologists every day. Haven’t found one that will minimize it like some want to all of them say we will see worse on this one but fear the next one more.

When trump says no one could have seen or predicted this he is an idiot. It was widely sent and predicted. He didn’t believe as did many of his like. They still don’t want to.
frankj1 Offline
#354 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
what next one?
DrafterX Offline
#355 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Just thinking of future shelter in place orders... prolly thinking too much... Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#356 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
There will be a next one. A worse next one. It is predictable and not a surprise. This one was not a surprise either despite what the great orange liar says.
DrafterX Offline
#357 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Is that really necessary?? Gotta make it Trump's fault..?? What else can we do..?? Huh
DrafterX Offline
#358 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Hope and Change used to be cool.. Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#359 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I didn’t make it his fault. He’s just a denial like he is a birther. He didn’t make the virus. He just didn’t believe it early enough and still goes back and forth.

He constantly says no one could have believed this. Bs. I personally worked on some of the stuff he discounted.

Yea he was asleep at the switch and it was intentional.

So yea. You may not like it but it’s true. He’s not responsible for the virus, just his reaction or lack there of. It’s not like folks weren’t trying to get him to believe and to start things up. He and his minions denied and refused to take action.
DrafterX Offline
#360 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
What could he have done different..?? Huh
teedubbya Offline
#361 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
he could have not disbanded some of the pandemic prep that had already been done. Including the playbook and the position in nsc.

He could have mobilized resources in January when folks were urging him to.

He could have realized this isn’t the flu as folks were trying to tell him and seen it for what it is. Folks were trying to get his attention. (We only have 15 cases and it should be close to zero soon)

I can’t say it enough. This isn’t a surprise and isn’t unbelievable. Another will come. But his mantra is it’s a surprise and unbelievable.

He tore down Obama era plans because well. Obama.

His bs cost us this time. Bigly.

I could go on but you really don’t want to know and can’t be convinced. He’s normally a bumbling fool and it’s embarrassing. This time we were damaged MORE because of him. It’s not his fault but it’s worse because of him.
teedubbya Offline
#362 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
And to top it off he’s a poopy head.
DrafterX Offline
#363 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Well, if we had known Frank and I coulda convinced him.. you shoulda said somethin... Mellow
MACS Offline
#364 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,776
Welp... can't say nobody here has tested positive for it any more. A deputy from another team did.

At present, nobody on my team is even sick.
teedubbya Offline
#365 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Good luck brother. Get through the next few weeks.
DrafterX Offline
#366 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
It's warming up so it'll be gone soon.. Mellow
DrafterX Offline
#367 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
I'm just glad we got 350 million dollars going to the Kennedy center so we can stop it... Mellow
MACS Offline
#368 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,776
Found out that our local costco is open from 7am-8am Tuesday and Thursday for first responders.

Cops, fire, doctors, nurses...

Very cool.
danmdevries Offline
#369 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 17,372
MACS wrote:
Found out that our local costco is open from 7am-8am Tuesday and Thursday for first responders.

Cops, fire, doctors, nurses...

Very cool.


I rarely do the Costco thing, but Meijers (big box store in the midwest) gives us an hour on Monday and Wednesday mornings. And they enforce it, you need your badge to get in.

I went last Monday and it was nice. Huge line outside when I walked out at 0755.

Very nice gesture.
danmdevries Offline
#370 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 17,372
DrafterX wrote:
It's warming up so it'll be gone soon.. Mellow


No. It won't.

This is going to be with us well into the summer before we even start to think we're getting a handle on things.
tonygraz Offline
#371 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,253
Most big grocery stores here have reduced their hours, but also have an early morning first hour for seniors and other at risk folks. We did three trips to those stores yesterday at early hours and no one was questioned as to whether they qualified. Last night they announced a limit of 50 customers in a store at the same time. A 35 year old, recently married died today of the corona and his wife is in critical condition.
Sunoverbeach Offline
#372 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 14,665
Meijers is only Midwest? Ya other poor bastids are missing out on a marginally better class of Walmart
victor809 Offline
#373 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Bones33 wrote:
I wasn’t talking to you. I was talking to Mr. Frank. Stay out of our conversation.


Wasn't your entire comment because frank specifically called out my name in a question?

Wouldn't that imply you should have "stayed out of our conversation"?

Or do rules only apply to other people in your head?
victor809 Offline
#374 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Here's a paper that's apparently scheduled for publication in May2020. It serves as a review of actual research done on chloroqunone over the decades:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220301145?via%3Dihub

It's very short, and very easy to read. Bottom line?

There have been about 6 different in-vitro studies showing antiviral effects of chloroquinone
but every time the studies are moved to in vivo, they fail to show any effect.

In two of the animal studies it actually made the infection worse due to some specific properties of the drug

The authors note the studies going on in china now, and are encouraging the release of preliminary data as soon as possible.

The authors also note the very narrow toxic range of chloroquinone (this is how idiots who try to prescribe for themselves end up in critical care. It has very little to do with the source of the material, aquarium or not)

I know you guys want to be hopeful and sh$t. But I don't see a real reason to be yet.
danmdevries Offline
#375 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 17,372
We're not seeing any difference with plaquenil/azith.

Giving it to the sick ones to try to do something.

But its certainly not the miracle cure touted
victor809 Offline
#376 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
danmdevries wrote:
We're not seeing any difference with plaquenil/azith.

Giving it to the sick ones to try to do something.

But its certainly not the miracle cure touted


I'm thinking it's the same reason people tout some of those cold cures.
With a certain percentage of people who are sick, given time, they get better.

"I had the cold and took that zinc de-snotifier! In 5 days I was better!"
..... Huh. Most people get better in 5 days.

"I had the coronavirus and took Puddin's Patented Pulmonary PeP and I got better!" ...
.... quick, go on Fox News and tell everyone!

(let's ignore the people who took it and didn't get better in almost the exact percentage of the illness mortality)

This is why double blinded studies have to be done for any actual believable data
Gene363 Offline
#377 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,815
victor809 wrote:
I'm thinking it's the same reason people tout some of those cold cures.
With a certain percentage of people who are sick, given time, they get better.

"I had the cold and took that zinc de-snotifier! In 5 days I was better!"
..... Huh. Most people get better in 5 days.

"I had the coronavirus and took Puddin's Patented Pulmonary PeP and I got better!" ...
.... quick, go on Fox News and tell everyone!

(let's ignore the people who took it and didn't get better in almost the exact percentage of the illness mortality)

This is why double blinded studies have to be done for any actual believable data



It's always critical to use genuine placebo for reliable results.
danmdevries Offline
#378 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 17,372
We all want a cure.

We all want TREATMENT.

But there is none.

It's a function of how this virus works. It directly destroys lung cells in its replication cycle. It's like a fast track to emphysema - consolidating airspaces into cavities that no longer work. Then the body's reaction to the dead cells ends up with tissue swelling and further damage.

Initial viral load seems to be a deciding factor for those of us that are getting exposed. Get a small load and the body can react properly, create antibodies, and fight it off. But if you take in a large load up front, the tissue destruction in the lungs is too great to fight off, as that is the first step in the virus's attack. Once your lungs are fried, they're fried, and you're fuxxed.
Pudding Mittens Offline
#379 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
teedubbya wrote:
You know it’s also possible a drug can be taken and someone gets better having nothing to do with the drug.

It’s also possible the next person taking it has catastrophic effects due to it. That’s why the trials are done.

Of course. But trials take time, people are dying, this stuff looks like it works, and it's relatively safe for most people especially at the short 5-day treatment course they're using for COVID-19 (and of course docs can exclude the rare people who shouldn't have it) and safety testing for "catastrophic effects" was completed decades ago.

Risk vs. benefit, exigent circumstances, all that. Do the studies, but don't wait for them, in this particular case.

Also, think we're repeating this same stuff at this point, so I'm gonna stop.
.
USNGunner Offline
#380 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
Pudding Mittens wrote:
Of course. But trials take time, people are dying, this stuff looks like it works, and it's relatively safe for most people especially at the short 5-day treatment course they're using for COVID-19 (and of course docs can exclude the rare people who shouldn't have it) and safety testing for "catastrophic effects" was completed decades ago.

Risk vs. benefit, exigent circumstances, all that. Do the studies, but don't wait for them, in this particular case.

Also, think we're repeating this same stuff at this point, so I'm gonna stop.
.


Yeah. Doom, gloom, and pessimism don't help anyone. Hell, there's enough of that now. Brick wall
Pudding Mittens Offline
#381 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
victor809 wrote:
The authors also note the very narrow toxic range of chloroquinone (this is how idiots who try to prescribe for themselves end up in critical care. It has very little to do with the source of the material, aquarium or not)

This is a plus, a valuable bonus of the drug. Not only does it clean aquariums, but gene pools too!*

( *When the idiots die immediately, and aren't admitted to take up hospital resources )
.
teedubbya Offline
#382 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I’m not arguing just talking. I hope you are right.

The 1-2% death rate factors in too.

Even if effective we don’t want everyone using or trying to use it. Worst cases maybe.

And because of the hype some folks using it for on label uses like lupus are having a rough time getting it.

There are a lot of moving parts.
teedubbya Offline
#383 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
And other things in the works as well.
Pudding Mittens Offline
#384 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
victor809 wrote:
I'm thinking it's the same reason people tout some of those cold cures.
With a certain percentage of people who are sick, given time, they get better. [.....] This is why double blinded studies have to be done for any actual believable data

(Sigh). Yes. This is all obvious and I've agreed to it many times. Yes, yes I know. Yes. No, really, I know. Honest. Yes. See above. We've been over all this already.

And here's my reply, repeated again:

The fact remains that a bunch of partial bits of data all collectively strongly hint that it may be effective, and these are exigent circumstances and the stuff is relatively safe for most people when under a doctor's supervision and it's only a 5-day course, and for many patients it's worth the risk to try it off-label and see if it works before the formal study results that we absolutely need eventually but will come too late for lots of people.

To prevent endless further repetitions of this, from now on, whenever anyone starts with this I'm just going to say "See post #384 above". Nice quick shorthand so I don't have to keep typing this same stuff over and over.
.
victor809 Offline
#385 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Pudding Mittens wrote:
(Sigh). Yes. This is all obvious and I've agreed to it many times. Yes, yes I know. Yes. No, really, I know. Honest. Yes. See above. We've been over all this already.

And here's my reply, repeated again:

The fact remains that a bunch of partial bits of data all collectively strongly hint that it may be effective, and these are exigent circumstances and the stuff is relatively safe for most people when under a doctor's supervision and it's only a 5-day course, and for many patients it's worth the risk to try it off-label and see if it works before the formal study results that we absolutely need eventually but will come too late for lots of people.

To prevent endless further repetitions of this, from now on, whenever anyone starts with this I'm just going to say "See post #384 above". Nice quick shorthand so I don't have to keep typing this same stuff over and over.
.


You're right and wrong.

Or right and selectively blind.

You see the "bunch of partial bits of data ..... hint may be effective" which yes, is why people will test it.
But you seem blind to the prior in vivo studies which saw no effect (or negative impact)

You're right we keep going around. But you bring up additional anecdotal evidence, and think it's adding to the burden of evidence that we should be using this drug.
Danm just provided anecdotal evidence that it does nothing... but that doesn't seem to put any brakes on your enthusiasm....

Just seems odd to me. This is a medicine which is necessary for some people in general... has anecdotal evidence of helping some with coronavirus, has other anecdotal evidence of helping no one with coronavirus... has actual data that in vivo doesn't help... and has some non-zero risk to patients. Maybe we should put the brakes on it a little, and make sure the people who actually need it, who it works for, have it available while a test is done.
Pudding Mittens Offline
#386 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
.
Victor, it really all boils down to risk-benefit analysis. That's essentially the whole thing. Without correctly-designed study results, that analysis is not easy.

The M.D.s just have to do what they think is best on a patient-by-patient basis. For many patients, it'll be worth a shot, if the two drugs aren't contraindicated for them personally. For others it won't be worth a shot.

I wouldn't want to be an M.D. who has to make these life/health-impacting decisions for others with very limited data available. Makes me glad I went into software instead. Herfing
.
teedubbya Offline
#387 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
By definition that wouldn’t make it a miracle drug as being pushed my non medical folks, fox, and the prez.

I’m still hopeful for it and about a half dozen equally promising treatments yet to be completely vetted. Danms post is sobering to me though. I believe him.

In the end it’s largely irrelevant given the timeline we are on.
teedubbya Offline
#388 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I am fascinated by the vaccine efforts. Bill Gates discussed it a bit last night.

I also learned we began working on it the evening (1/10) we received the genetic sequence from China. Three days later NIH shared their vaccine sequence with a manufacturer. 3/16 the first human received the trial vaccine. May not seem like it but that’s phenomenal.
teedubbya Offline
#389 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Thinking through it we’ve missed an important opportunity. Has anyone consulted with Chuck Norris or RAM?
opelmanta1900 Offline
#390 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
You have access to fgm's account?
teedubbya Offline
#391 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Lol. Deleted that post but it was funny while it lasted.
opelmanta1900 Offline
#392 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
Herfing
delta1 Offline
#393 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
dammit...I missed it...was busy with the grandkids this morning...

and I really needed a good laugh, and who better to laugh at than FGM?
Pudding Mittens Offline
#394 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
teedubbya wrote:
Thinking through it we’ve missed an important opportunity. Has anyone consulted with Chuck Norris or RAM?

The coronavirus is terrified of catching Chuck Norris.
.
delta1 Offline
#395 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
Kung flu fighting...but didn't Bruce Lee kick his ass?
Pudding Mittens Offline
#396 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,291
teedubbya wrote:
I am fascinated by the vaccine efforts. Bill Gates discussed it a bit last night.

I also learned we began working on it the evening (1/10) we received the genetic sequence from China. Three days later NIH shared their vaccine sequence with a manufacturer. 3/16 the first human received the trial vaccine. May not seem like it but that’s phenomenal.

Yeah, if I remember right it took like 2 years after SARS to get the first vaccine trial started.
.
danmdevries Offline
#397 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 17,372
teedubbya wrote:
I am fascinated by the vaccine efforts. Bill Gates discussed it a bit last night.

I also learned we began working on it the evening (1/10) we received the genetic sequence from China. Three days later NIH shared their vaccine sequence with a manufacturer. 3/16 the first human received the trial vaccine. May not seem like it but that’s phenomenal.


It'll be a long way off tho.

We're going to need to analyze antibodies from recovered patients, and track them for a good amount of time (and they gotta stay alive too)

The issue is the physical damage that is done to the lung tissue by initial exposure to the virus. It's not just an inflammatory/immune response. This causes physical damage to the cells that do the air exchange.

victor809 Offline
#398 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
danmdevries wrote:

The issue is the physical damage that is done to the lung tissue by initial exposure to the virus. It's not just an inflammatory/immune response. This causes physical damage to the cells that do the air exchange.


Saw you mention this before.
Gotta admit, that part's worse than I thought....
danmdevries Offline
#399 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 17,372
victor809 wrote:
Saw you mention this before.
Gotta admit, that part's worse than I thought....


Yup.

That's why all of "us" are scared. We can treat the other stuff. We can't treat this. And we're highly susceptible because it seems like the initial exposure viral load correlates with severity of symptoms in the otherwise healthy. And we're dealing with this without proper PPE. I'd walk into a room with the confidence and swagger of McGregor if I had the proper equipment. But we don't. We don't have goggles/face shields. We don't have respirators. We get a face mask that does fxckall to protect us.

This needs to be thought of as like a toxic corrosive gas cloud more than a virulent pathogen. We're all used to the flu, the cold, and other ailments major or minor. You recover and go back to your normal. This is different. You recover, but the damage remains. It's like inhaling a cloud of acid that burns your lungs.
teedubbya Offline
#400 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Agreed damn. Long way off as impressive as it is.

That’s the problem between the miracle drugs and vax. This things moving so fast and while great won’t meet the needed time frame.

This is just the beginning and it’s ugly. It’s been hard to get that through to some.
Users browsing this topic
Guest
19 Pages«<456789101112>»