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Last post 11 days ago by USNGunner. 58 replies replies.
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China's confirmed WuRona cases are BS...
clintCigar Offline
#1 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 2,252
I've been suspecting China's confirmed cases were BS. Apparently they are not counting positive tests in people that are asymptomatic. So they quarantine these people and only count the ones that come back with symptoms they cannot control or heal on their own. WTF

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/life-after-lockdown-has-china-really-beaten-coronavirus
delta1 Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 20,700
predictable...can't trust anything put out by China's media...

they punish/ kill dissenters...whom the Chinese govt consider to be enemies of the people
Pudding Mittens Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,170
delta1 wrote:
they punish/ kill dissenters...whom the Chinese govt consider to be enemies of the people

A rich real estate tycoon over there recently publically called their president Xi a "power-hungry clown". That was the last anyone ever heard from him, he promptly disappeared.

Kinda dumb, really. You can either have an awesome rich life (leave the country if they let you, or stay and just shut your mouth), or shoot your mouth off and disappear.

He chose unwisely.
.

USNGunner Online
#4 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,055
21 "MILLION" chinese cell phone accounts have gone dormant/missing.

Think that over.
teedubbya Offline
#5 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
Our numbers aren’t exact open or accurate
DrMaddVibe Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 48,263
delta1 wrote:
predictable...can't trust anything put out by China's media...

they punish/ kill dissenters...whom the Chinese govt consider to be enemies of the people




Shhh...don't tell TW that, he'll blow a seal.
teedubbya Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
Why would I care? I don’t trust the Chinese government. I trust ours a little more but not much.

I’m always amazed at how some folks draw strange conclusions based on their inability to understand complex or nuanced thought. Black or white. Anything else is fecepost. Fence post bad (in my Frankenstein voice)

And leave my personal life out of this. Who I blow is my business.
MACS Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 67,301
delta1 wrote:
predictable...can't trust anything put out by China's media...

they punish/ kill dissenters...whom the Chinese govt consider to be enemies of the people


I believe there was a chinese billionaire that insulted their emperor and got "disappeared".
teedubbya Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
At least fatty fat fat is cool now. He wrote a love letter and stuff. And the House of Saud executed the people they sent to kill the wp reporter. So they are good too.

We bitch about trump but I’ll give him this. To my knowledge he’s not killed anyone. Maybe called them names because his feewings got hurt but not killed anyone yet.
jjanecka Offline
#10 Posted:
Joined: 12-08-2015
Posts: 4,274
Yeah and we all know the Clintons killed a lot of people.
delta1 Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 20,700
teedubbya wrote:
At least fatty fat fat is cool now. He wrote a love letter and stuff. And the House of Saud executed the people they sent to kill the wp reporter. So they are good too.

We bitch about trump but I’ll give him this. To my knowledge he’s not killed anyone. Maybe called them names because his feewings got hurt but not killed anyone yet.



but dammm................... does he drop a lot of hints
DrMaddVibe Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 48,263
teedubbya wrote:
Why would I care? I don’t trust the Chinese government. I trust ours a little more but not much.

I’m always amazed at how some folks draw strange conclusions based on their inability to understand complex or nuanced thought. Black or white. Anything else is fecepost. Fence post bad (in my Frankenstein voice)

And leave my personal life out of this. Who I blow is my business.


I told you that when you spouted about Chinese data, not to trust anything the commies were saying and your cheese slid off your cracker. They're liars. Always have been, and always will be.

I don't know how you get your lips around a seal, but I bet your momma is proud.
teedubbya Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
ok
frankj1 Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 32,835
note to self:
get sticky cheese
delta1 Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 20,700
we need a ruling from Drafter about whether DMV's use of the "yo momma" card was appropriate...
KingoftheCove Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 6,130
Cell phone accounts.................Eh, whatever........
The Chinese data is bogus........period.
danmdevries Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 12,311
The US data is bogus as well.

I don't know how other places are doing it, but we test pretty much only when they crash and need to go on a vent.

Presumptive cases outnumber tests at least 6:1 and of those tested, I've not seen a negative result yet. So I'd consider any data on positives to be at the minimum only 20% of actual, but more likely sub 10%.

Multiply the numbers by 8-10 to get closer to reality.
teedubbya Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
^ this. I’m seeing that too.

Plus there is some data We have not being shared for various reasons.
KingoftheCove Offline
#19 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 6,130
teedubbya wrote:
^ this. I’m seeing that too.

Plus there is some data We have not being shared for various reasons.

“You can’t handle the truth!”

in my best Jack Nicholson voice....
teedubbya Offline
#20 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
Hey king just curious what you are seeing. Are you seeing any stratification of the us data we do have? Even as simple as broken down by male and female?

Some localities have been forthcoming with this but I think some of this is close hold at the fed level.
KingoftheCove Offline
#21 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 6,130
danmdevries wrote:
The US data is bogus as well.

I don't know how other places are doing it, but we test pretty much only when they crash and need to go on a vent.

Presumptive cases outnumber tests at least 6:1 and of those tested, I've not seen a negative result yet. So I'd consider any data on positives to be at the minimum only 20% of actual, but more likely sub 10%.

Multiply the numbers by 8-10 to get closer to reality.

Well, I’ve pretty much quit crunching numbers...........too depressing............besides my contacts are now too busy and out of touch.
But based on my last calculation, 8 to 10 as the multiplier is quite low Dan..................unfortunately.
Just my opinion...
Still 2 weeks from my upcoming “60 Days Ago” post.................yeah...............I won’t be doing that one.
KingoftheCove Offline
#22 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 6,130
TeeDub ^^
teedubbya Offline
#23 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
Got it.
victor809 Offline
#24 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 21,433
KingoftheCove wrote:

Still 2 weeks from my upcoming “60 Days Ago” post.................yeah...............I won’t be doing that one.


You should.

Post mortems are always important.
KingoftheCove Offline
#25 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 6,130
teedubbya wrote:
Got it.

TeeDub........I’ve been doing simple top down macro stuff............at first, just out of curiosity, and after being contacted by friends, etc.
Doing traditional Incidence, Prevalance, Mortality cuts by sex, age, socioeconomic, comorbidity, etc..........is futile at best for US data currently, as the chit is just moving too quickly. Maybe in a few months?

The Chinese data as we know it? Not even worth analyzing in my opinion with respect to validity and reliability.
The Euro data coming in, especially the Latin countries, is troubling.

Still believe that the best case scenario is our normal lives will be disrupted for a while.
Worst case? I originally said chit could get ugly. I’m amending that to really ugly.
teedubbya Offline
#26 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
Pretty much how I’m seeing it at the moment myself.
delta1 Offline
#27 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 20,700
ummmmm..................should I start hoarding toilet paper and bottled water,...then buying more guns and ammo???
victor809 Offline
#28 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 21,433
News reports seem to be indicating that hospitals are getting direction not to test as it is... not enough kits I guess in some areas still. Essentially just assume people with the symptoms have COVID-19. Sounds like what danm's seeing is not uncommon.

We probably shouldn't bother criticizing china's numbers right now
Pudding Mittens Offline
#29 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,170
.
I have simply downgraded my expectations to be the worst possible conceivable outcome.

Therefore, only two things can happen:

1. What I am expecting is what happens
2. Something much better than I am expecting is what happens.

I can't be disappointed no matter what! Winning!!!!!!!!
.
victor809 Offline
#30 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 21,433
Pudding Mittens wrote:
.
I have simply downgraded my expectations to be the worst possible conceivable outcome.

Therefore, only two things can happen:

1. What I am expecting is what happens
2. Something much better than I am expecting is what happens.

I can't be disappointed no matter what! Winning!!!!!!!!
.


You'll get there. Real champions actually adopt misanthropy, so that worst case becomes best case.

but baby steps. :)
danmdevries Offline
#31 Posted:
Joined: 02-11-2014
Posts: 12,311
victor809 wrote:
News reports seem to be indicating that hospitals are getting direction not to test as it is... not enough kits I guess in some areas still. Essentially just assume people with the symptoms have COVID-19. Sounds like what danm's seeing is not uncommon.

We probably shouldn't bother criticizing china's numbers right now


It's pretty reliably diagnosed clinically in the hospitalized patients, which according to WHO data is about 20% of infected.

The tests really offer us nothing in the clinical setting.

They would be much more beneficial if they were quickly resulted and widely available for outpatients/general public. But even then, it's just for data collection. But could allow for closer monitoring and easier triage to inpatient once someone is symptomatic. Right now we send you home, even if it requires sending you home with an oxygen tank, and tell you to come back if it gets worse. Well, we're finding dead people in their houses a few days later after we've sent them home. But they weren't tested or resulted, so it's not included in the covid data.

If I've got a patient with ARDS, and we find out 7 days later they're sars-2 positive, it does absolutely fuxkall to get that test result.
Pudding Mittens Offline
#32 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 1,170
victor809 wrote:
Real champions actually adopt misanthropy, so that worst case becomes best case.

I like the cut of your jib, son!
.

victor809 Offline
#33 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 21,433
danmdevries wrote:


If I've got a patient with ARDS, and we find out 7 days later they're sars-2 positive, it does absolutely fuxkall to get that test result.

hehhehe
USNGunner Online
#34 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,055
danmdevries wrote:
It's pretty reliably diagnosed clinically in the hospitalized patients, which according to WHO data is about 20% of infected.

The tests really offer us nothing in the clinical setting.

They would be much more beneficial if they were quickly resulted and widely available for outpatients/general public. But even then, it's just for data collection. But could allow for closer monitoring and easier triage to inpatient once someone is symptomatic. Right now we send you home, even if it requires sending you home with an oxygen tank, and tell you to come back if it gets worse. Well, we're finding dead people in their houses a few days later after we've sent them home. But they weren't tested or resulted, so it's not included in the covid data.

If I've got a patient with ARDS, and we find out 7 days later they're sars-2 positive, it does absolutely fuxkall to get that test result.


Right. 9-10 days to get results right here now. My wifes lab now does a "drive-thru" test for patients pre-screened by a physician who orders the test. They don't even get out of their car. ""Ding", thank you for driving through, we'll call you in a week or so."

Yeah. Frustrating.
frankj1 Offline
#35 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 32,835
Pudding Mittens wrote:
I like the cut of your jib, son!
.


some just don't pay attention.
sad.
teedubbya Offline
#36 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
You flunked Baghdad Bob Twitter 101. I’ll re work i it

SOME JUST DONT PAY ATTENTION....SAD!!!!!!!
clintCigar Offline
#37 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 2,252
victor809 wrote:
We probably shouldn't bother criticizing china's numbers right now

It's one thing to have inaccurate data due to testing shortages or length of time to get results. It's a completely different issue to intentionally not report positive test results just because someone does not come back in with serious symptoms.
KingoftheCove Offline
#38 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 6,130
I'm gonna fix this for ya Clint....


clintCigar wrote:
It's one thing to have inaccurate data due to testing shortages or length of time to get results, and generally screwing the pooch and bumbling and stumbling your way through the crisis with absolutely no fuqing clue or plan ready EARLY ON when it's MOST FUQING CRITICAL to have a good plan!

It's a completely different issue to intentionally not report positive test results just because someone does not come back in with serious symptoms, to willfully skew and falsify data, to under report and coverup death rates, to make people disappear who rustle feathers, to offer a half hearted and woefully late and inadequate apology to Li Wenliang............and only because they couldn't make him disappear first, because thankfully his message and identity was already known by too many, and so on, and so on.....

clintCigar Offline
#39 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 2,252
ThumpUp
frankj1 Offline
#40 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 32,835
China gonna do what China do, but we act like we do better.
not so fast.

Looks like our Intelligence agencies "were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February while President Trump and lawmakers played down the threat".

There's more to this, and this is related to what we know about the senators who sold "stocks in advance of the market chaos that was to come". I must admit I thought that was a nothing burger, but I was wrong, it's bad.

A decade long tradition of House and Senate Intelligence committees holding "unclassified public hearing on worldwide threats" under oath...ummmm, not this year.

Doesn't matter if you're a lib, a con, a commie...as long as you're an American this year's info that featured what was known about the virus was withheld from you. Worse still, during that period what we got from the top was...

Jan 24- "China has been working very hard...in particular, on behalf of the American people, I want to thank President Xi".

You probably know the rest of the time line release of info.
teedubbya Offline
#41 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
And we are still sitting on data.
frankj1 Offline
#42 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 32,835
just buy a new outfit for Easter.
I'll work for ya.
teedubbya Offline
#43 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
Something frilly in pastel with a nice hat?
Speyside Offline
#44 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 9,416
Man, TW, aren't you the fashion statement? But make it an Easter bonnet, tradition you know.
Speyside Offline
#45 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 9,416
Hey, COVID19 sort of looks frilly, how about a COVID19 bonnet.
Mr. Jones Offline
#46 Posted:
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 11,964
Bunch of friggin liars...

We are going to see a SECOND WAVE COME ALL OVER CHINA ....

AGAIN...

THIS TIME THOUGH...it isn't going to be "take them forcefully" to the new 10 erected COVID hospital...it will be a battle of the buldge movie scene next to a mass graves hole in the ground...ratta tat tat goes the truck mounted mini gun
As ALL the infected fall into the hole...

"Problem solved the old fashioned COMMIE WAY"...

CRUEL BUT 100% EFFECTIVE

History always repeats itself in China.
Mrs. dpnewell Offline
#47 Posted:
Joined: 08-23-2014
Posts: 1,304
Well if the infected is 10x what is being reported, then wouldn't that put the death rate at 0.15% instead of the 1.5% we are being told? That would mean that this is not all that much deadlier then the seasonal flu.

David
teedubbya Offline
#48 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
Nope.
teedubbya Offline
#49 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
That’s wrong for a whole bunch of reasons I won’t spend the time on. We are past the it’s no worse than the flu stage. Anyone wanting to believe that is just going to anyway. This is real and not just like the flu.

But I will give you one reason that’s not correct (again among many). Simple “analysis” like that completely misses the mark and feeds misinformation that folks want to believe.

Look for a danM post talking about not testing folks and sending them home with oxygen. He said something about finding the bodies days later. Said case is in neither the numerator or denominator. Your example adds them to the denominator but holds the numerator constant.
teedubbya Offline
#50 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 89,112
I gave one example. I won’t spend time on the numerous other flaws in the logic.

Here is a general one for you though. If the incredibly smart group of scientists working on this agree that is not the case why are you trying to prove them wrong? I like hope, but only if it is grounded in fact and knowledge.
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