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That was God's bush...

I bet you like the big bushy ones...

When you are a star you can spray anywhere you want. I just spray.

It’s good to spray everywhere. If it gets on someone it’s their fault. They shouldn’t be there. Some of the sheeple don’t get it.

Your mil will be closer soon.

I used to spray and run away.
But since I joined this group, I am no longer ashamed.

No way spray away. It’s your right.

If you spray Frank you contemplate this on da tree of woe... just sayin...

you have been there for me from day one!

More cowbell is always good.

link or it didnt happen

So.... Back to COVID....

Let's look at some fun numbers. CDC published some interesting numbers on pneumonia deaths over the time of the COVID pandemic.
So, in the US as a whole, over the period of time from Feb 01 to May 23, there were 83k COVID tagged deaths
Over that same time, there were 96k Pneumonia deaths (not tagged as COVID).

Now, if you look at 2017 data, total yearly mortality is about 50k a year..... We're already at 96k over a 4mo period of time. One would assume there's probably another 15-20k worth of actual pneumonia deaths remaining to occur in this year (assuming death by pneumonia is consistent year round). So for pneumonia, we could estimate we are probably 60-65k OVER our expected deaths in 2020. This is likely unattributed COVID.

With that in mind, let's start looking at some particularly "odd" states.
Like Florida....where over that period of time they experienced 5.5k deaths from pneumonia (unattributed to COVID). Over all of last year, Florida experienced 3k deaths from pneumonia. In 1/3 of the year (when they would expect 1k deaths from pneumonia) they got 5.5k.
Georgia.... Should have about 600 deaths from Pneumonia, they have 2k
Texas... Should have about 1k deaths, has 5k
California should be about 2k, instead it's 8k


It keeps going. Our actual deaths from COVID are already likely much closer to 200k than to the 100k we are counting at this point.

Anyway, thought it would be interesting to some people.
Here's where you can get the data to play with yourself:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09_tables-508.pdf

At the zoo I once saw a hippo spray **** everywhere and use it’s tail to bat it even further. People were pissed lol.

Interesting extrapolation Victor. I think your premise is correct. Frank I suspect you could see the same trend with many compromised people. Heart, diabetes, obesity, lowered immune system, and on and on. Victor, there also are going to be deaths years from now that were accelerated by COVID 19. Autoimmune disease comes to mind as a primary example.

In case you forgot, there's a virus going around. The late week peak is upon us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Lock up the women and children, baste your threshold with the blood of virgins because it's going to come back again next week after a fall off over the weekend. See... even the virus takes the weekends off.

So we are not to trust the reported numbers? I thought the smart people believed the reported numbers. Now your telling me that the numbers are not trustworthy?

Back to the graphs. I thought these were the graphs and data that we are using to determine policy and how we should react/respond. What happened to the "sky is falling" calls when the instantaneous daily reported numbers showed a rise in infection and death rates, the scrolls along the bottom of all the newscasts like it was the Final Four tournament updates? This graph shows a decay in infection rates with a short term cyclic period of about a week.

Is there a built in clock in the Rona because it looks like we have predictable peaks at the end of each week? Is that the cycle of testing and data reporting or should we lock down every weekend to avoid these swings? It's never too late to make knee jerk reactions based small snapshots in time.

Where is the spike we were promised when things began opening up? Remember the post Memorial Day spike that everyone was worried about? Memorial day was almost 2 weeks ago. Isn't 14 days the mandatory quarantine period to ensure that the Rona hasn't taken hold of it's victim?

Where did this stuff go?

So how will these protests impact these predictable vanilla numbers?

sorry, Bucky... I thought you were being facetious...

I read somewhere that the reason the virus "takes the week-end off" is because many of the folks recording the data are off on week-ends, so some week-end data gets reported on Mondays...at least that rationale was used to explain that phenomena locally...

but because of the "haphazard" appearance and the real world difficulty in tracking actual cases of a brand new infectious disease, it lends itself to an argument that the date can't be trusted...

NY, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Mexico, Brazil, United Kingdom and other nations have proven the deadly nature of the disease and should not be overlooked...heck, we in America have the highest counts of infections and deaths, and there are many among us who think the numbers are trivial, not real...

As deadly as this virus is I just cannot accept that the folks that are recording the numbers are ofF on weekends.

OK just so were clear. The virus is more dangerous than the published data shows - trust those who say so, they are the experts and have insight into the real data.

It's acting exactly as predicted except when it hasn't but don't trust the published data or the stuff we've been telling previously because those who really know what's going on have the real data and it fits their model exactly and don't question them because you are incapable of understanding the little details that we have established in our models and they aren't really models because the data fits exactly as we thought and will be able to predict what will happen this coming fall because our model predicted that things would fall off in the summer so you better watch out because a new title wave is coming because that's what we've been telling everyone so we need to make sure that we don't have egg on our face.... (whew...)

Hey look! Looters. Look over there!

Bucky, my last job was for retirement fun. I am very private and don't throw around I know more than you. That being said I have a PHD in cellular physiology and specialize in cellular membrane physiology and inner cellular physiology. I do not claim to know the epidemiology of this beast. But I do understand its interaction at a cellular level. No one is talking about the real danger of this virus. It isn't the deaths. It is the long term autoimmune damage. Also, if this thing mutates a specific wrong way, which I have every expectation it won't, we are looking at an extinction level event. The % is phenomenally minimal, yet it does exist. This does not mean I want the country to remain closed. I do want people to understand what we are facing. In truth this post was difficult for me because I am a private person. But what is going on is to important not to share.

so 2 possibly slightly contradictory quotes written by 2 different people equals you're not a racist, how?

Some of my really good friends are (insert appropriate ethnicity here) so I can't be a racist. Chicks, on the other hand, this country went to hell once they got the "equal pay for equal work" crap.

not quite, Bucky...a few clarifications are in order...I do not want to throw the baby out because of some dirt in the bathwater, as the skeptics seem to infer...

it is not the case of garbage in garbage out...there are plenty of reliable data points: number of people who have tested positive, and numbers of people who have died after testing positive, as examples...all of which point to a serious health issue that required a serious public health response...to have done otherwise would have been negligent malpractice on those officials who we have entrusted with protecting our collective health...not to mention the millions of mourning people around the world who have buried nearly half a million loved ones who are victims of the virus...

as with many new natural catastrophes, predicting outcomes is inexact...some want certainty and criticize when it isn't delivered...well the first wave was pretty serious...

Theodore, I seem to recall discussion here over recent months about long term care, like 30 to 40 years, of lung scarred victims who did not die, organ damage that will require amazing amounts of money to cope with for many years, blah blah blah.

The goal posts aren't moving, but a few place kickers are lining up for field goals at the same time.