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Exponential Curves.
victor809 Offline
#151 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
teedubbya wrote:
Victor KC is starting to flare.


wonderful. I haven't been tracking cities, just states and Columbia itself.

We had a bit of an increase here... but given our total cases has been in the 100-200 level, nothing significant.

If KC is going the way of FL/CA etc then we may get some of that fallout.

Do you think it's from the protests there, the bars opening or both? MO has been fully open for what.... 3 weeks now?
teedubbya Offline
#152 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
victor809 wrote:
wonderful. I haven't been tracking cities, just states and Columbia itself.

We had a bit of an increase here... but given our total cases has been in the 100-200 level, nothing significant.

If KC is going the way of FL/CA etc then we may get some of that fallout.

Do you think it's from the protests there, the bars opening or both? MO has been fully open for what.... 3 weeks now?



Dunno and it’s not extreme yet.... just an uptick. Remember to include KCK with KCMO
HockeyDad Offline
#153 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
delta1 wrote:
the spike in positive tests in many states can be attributed to the masses of people protesting for social equality...at least partially

would've been simple to determine that...

just ask anybody who tested positive, "did you attend any mass public rallies in the past 14 days?"


but we are also pretty sure that some of the spike can be blamed on the numbers of bars, pubs, restaurants with bars, etc that recently re-opened...

Gov has decided to shut down bars in 7 of the counties with highest numbers and recommended to another 6 counties that they should close their bars...our county was one that he recommended, and the county commission voted to do so today


It is rather obvious that the possibility that the protests for social justice caused a spike in Covid cases has been discounted. It just never even comes up on the news. I have heard that attending mass public rallies is not a data point being collected during testing though.

It does appear that we have shifted from Sally’s birthday party as the cause to bars. There’s now talk that Los Angeles County may be out of hospital beds in two weeks. LA County bars have only been open 9 days before getting shut down again. Covid-19 appears to really like to get its drink on.

Up here in the Bay Area my county is one of the ones recommended to shut down bars. Weird thing is we never opened bars, gyms, personal services, or indoor dining up here yet we have a spike in cases. We are the slowest counties in the state to open yet we have this spike.
HockeyDad Offline
#154 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
teedubbya wrote:
Victor KC is starting to flare.


I think we can all agree that nobody cares about KC. Flyover Covid.
victor809 Offline
#155 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
HockeyDad wrote:
I think we can all agree that nobody cares about KC. Flyover Covid.


hehehe..... this is truth
teedubbya Offline
#156 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Huh. It’s come up in the news I’ve watched and in conversations at work. We expected it. It’s obvious. It’s not an either or.

Sadly many of the cases are avoidable but we’ve chosen not to avoid them.
teedubbya Offline
#157 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
HockeyDad wrote:
I think we can all agree that nobody cares about KC. Flyover Covid.



Flyover Super Bowl championship covid to you. The last Super Bowl ever.
HockeyDad Offline
#158 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
teedubbya wrote:
Flyover Super Bowl championship covid to you. The last Super Bowl ever.


I’m just glad I’m not a 49ers fan or that would hurt.
frankj1 Offline
#159 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
thought I posted that MA had tracked protesters specifically and the positives were 1 dot something.
victor809 Offline
#160 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
frankj1 wrote:
thought I posted that MA had tracked protesters specifically and the positives were 1 dot something.


Doesn't matter. HD is convinced that no one tracks it and the media is complicit.
frankj1 Offline
#161 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
he never RSVP'd for my birthday party either.
HockeyDad Offline
#162 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063


Never-mind. Victor’s surely right. I don’t need to be running afoul of the party line.

CDC tracking information on COVID surely provides data on whether the people who tested positive for the novel virus attended a protest. There prolly a page for Massachusetts mandatory protestor Covid tracing too.
HockeyDad Offline
#163 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
frankj1 wrote:
he never RSVP'd for my birthday party either.


I’m not going to no birthday parties. We need to be sheltering in place. Little Timmy’s birthday party took out half of Florida.
victor809 Offline
#164 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
HockeyDad wrote:
Never-mind. Victor’s surely right. I don’t need to be running afoul of the party line.

CDC tracking information on COVID surely provides data on whether the people who tested positive for the novel virus attended a protest. There prolly a page for Massachusetts mandatory protestor Covid tracing too.


...where's that eyeroll emoji....
BuckyB93 Offline
#165 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,110
frankj1 wrote:
thought I posted that MA had tracked protesters specifically and the positives were 1 dot something.

Not sure how they would track who was and who was not participating in the protests. (personal editorial: If officials did actually track who was at the protests and who was not, that would make me very uncomfortable and it would probably lead to another series of protests protesting the tracking of people who protest).

Maybe they were just going on the word of the individual being tested. Did it encompass all who participated (every man, woman, and child) - not likely. Did these test sites get folks who didn't participate coming in for a free test - probably. Either way, who cares. The more data the better assuming it's clean and real data.

It sounds these short term, localized, free testing pop up sites yielded numbers similar to the numbers for general testing that has been done in the state so far.

The first test results from a pop-up coronavirus testing site targeting people who had attended one of the dozens of police brutality protests held in the greater Boston region are in.

A spokesperson for the Boston Public Health Commission said a total of 1,288 individuals were tested over two days at the facility set up in Roxbury.

The city said 14 of the tests came back positive for COVID-19, or 1.08 percent of the tests.

City officials have previously said they cannot say for sure if they people who were tested at the pop-up site had actually attended one of the large, outdoor protests over the previous days and weeks.

Gov. Charlie Baker on Monday said the state is opening 50 pop-up testing sites for people to be tested for COVID-19.

Anyone who has attended a large gathering in the last two weeks are encouraged to get tested, he said.


https://www.wcvb.com/article/boston-covid-19-testing-results-targeting-george-floyd-protesters/32884377

Updated: 3:58 PM EDT Jun 16, 2020


"Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced Tuesday that the state has received the results of the thousands of coronavirus tests conducted on residents who have participated in protests, marches and rallies since the death of George Floyd a month ago.

He said a total of 17,617 tests were conducted statewide at 52 free, pop-up testing sites set up on June 17 and 18. Of those tested, 2.5% came back positive for COVID-19, which Baker said is “reasonably consistent” with the overall statewide numbers."


https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/gov-baker-to-talk-coronavirus-boston-state-hospital-redevelopment/2147467/
By Marc Fortier • Published June 23, 2020 • Updated on June 24, 2020 at 5:21 am

One thing that might fall from a superficial look at the two test reports: increase the number tested (1,300 in a localized population vs 17,600 over a broader population) and you get an increase in positives (1.8% just from a single site vs 2.5% over 52 different sites).
victor809 Offline
#166 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Bucky wrote:
Not sure how they would track who was and who was not participating in the protests. (personal editorial: If officials did actually track who was at the protests and who was not, that would make me very uncomfortable and it would probably lead to another series of protests protesting the tracking of people who protest).

There's actually a lot of suspicion right now in the groups that were protesting that government agencies have been tracking the protesters. It's pretty easy from cell phone data (thus a lot of groups recommend getting a burner phone specifically for the protests). I don't know if there is any truth to it, nor do I think we've seen any fallout from it.

Apparently the FBI has used a spy plane on the protests recently, and has also been trawling social media and has apparently arrested people for "inciting violence" because of facebook posts:
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/federal-agents-monitored-facebook-arrest-protesters-inciting-riots-court-records-n1231531

This article describes how they can do it, but does explicitly state there isn't any evidence it is used against protesters at this point:
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/06/quick-and-dirty-guide-cell-phone-surveillance-protests

teedubbya Offline
#167 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
The other way isn’t specific to individuals but rather where the protests were vs the virus. It’s not precise to the individual of course but gives a picture with certain confidence intervals. It’s not ignored despite the screaming chimp politics.
BuckyB93 Offline
#168 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,110
victor809 wrote:
There's actually a lot of suspicion right now in the groups that were protesting that government agencies have been tracking the protesters. It's pretty easy from cell phone data (thus a lot of groups recommend getting a burner phone specifically for the protests). I don't know if there is any truth to it, nor do I think we've seen any fallout from it.

Apparently the FBI has used a spy plane on the protests recently, and has also been trawling social media and has apparently arrested people for "inciting violence" because of facebook posts:
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/federal-agents-monitored-facebook-arrest-protesters-inciting-riots-court-records-n1231531

This article describes how they can do it, but does explicitly state there isn't any evidence it is used against protesters at this point:
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/06/quick-and-dirty-guide-cell-phone-surveillance-protests



There's some really hard hitting and in depth critical thinking right there: "suspicions" and "explicitly state there isn't any evidence." Wow, good stuff!

Tracking via cell phone. It happens everyday with everyone who carries a cell phone. It's called GPS. Don't want to be tracked, shut your phone off. You choose to allow yourself to be tracked by enabling these features on your phone. It's not some government bug that has been secretly placed on your person. You freely opt in to allow your data to be tracked and shared on the cell network. By the way, this data is used quite frequently to crack criminal cases. Look up the trial of Aaron Hernandez, the Patriot's TE who was convicted of murder as one example. It will also help you locate nice restaurants within walking distance of your current location.

Monitoring social media posts: Another thing that is used quite frequently by not only the government but anybody who wants to learn more about you - prospective employer for example. If you're looking for a job, employers often look into your social media information and posts to see if you are the type of character they want to employ. Nothing illegal or revolutionary here. You chose to have this information shared and put out publicly.

FBI spy planes: You are out in public. An overhead plane snaps some pictures or videos of you. Nothing illegal or questionable about this. Again, overhead aircraft routinely capture footage of things going on in public. Any outcry of news films with the eye in the sky above a scene of an accident, a sporting event or even a traffic jam?

You are really on some super sleuthing conspiracy stuff here. Maybe Mr. Jones could learn a thing or two from your in depth critical assessments of government conspiracies.

When I say that it would make me uncomfortable, I'm talking about cataloging and creating profiles of random people who don't openly share their personal information and movements.
teedubbya Offline
#169 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
It's really not that complicated and if anyone thinks there isn't anyone modeling what is causing spikes where (including the effects of protesting) I have a bridge to sell you.
victor809 Offline
#170 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Dude... unwind your panties. It wasn't supposed to be "hard hitting".

It was literally in response to: "If officials did actually track who was at the protests and who was not, that would make me very uncomfortable"

They are tracking. Maybe not in the most "hard hitting" way, but they are tracking. Definitely through spy planes, definitely through social media.

If you were going to post a "I'd be super concerned if they were doing that!" post, then maybe you should have known what I posted.
delta1 Offline
#171 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,753
that's part of how the FBI is tracking down criminals who used the cover of mass protests and police engagement with protesters to burglarize, burn and destroy property...using social media to publish facial shots of the looters, arsonists and vandals for the public's help in id'ing them and phone records to establish their presence at the property damaged...



seems there are significant numbers of people who are only interested in the protest, not the arson and looting...many still out there marching...peacefully...

so no major police presence needed...and not much media coverage either, since there's no blood, smoke, confrontations, breaking glass, or criminals running wild...

so much for the view that "they're all thugs and terrorists"...Trump's inability to make these distinctions and paint everybody with a generalized brush will hurt him across the political spectrum in Nov '20
frankj1 Offline
#172 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
BuckyB93 wrote:
Not sure how they would track who was and who was not participating in the protests. (personal editorial: If officials did actually track who was at the protests and who was not, that would make me very uncomfortable and it would probably lead to another series of protests protesting the tracking of people who protest).

Maybe they were just going on the word of the individual being tested. Did it encompass all who participated (every man, woman, and child) - not likely. Did these test sites get folks who didn't participate coming in for a free test - probably. Either way, who cares. The more data the better assuming it's clean and real data.

It sounds these short term, localized, free testing pop up sites yielded numbers similar to the numbers for general testing that has been done in the state so far.

The first test results from a pop-up coronavirus testing site targeting people who had attended one of the dozens of police brutality protests held in the greater Boston region are in.

A spokesperson for the Boston Public Health Commission said a total of 1,288 individuals were tested over two days at the facility set up in Roxbury.

The city said 14 of the tests came back positive for COVID-19, or 1.08 percent of the tests.


City officials have previously said they cannot say for sure if they people who were tested at the pop-up site had actually attended one of the large, outdoor protests over the previous days and weeks.

Gov. Charlie Baker on Monday said the state is opening 50 pop-up testing sites for people to be tested for COVID-19.

Anyone who has attended a large gathering in the last two weeks are encouraged to get tested, he said.


https://www.wcvb.com/article/boston-covid-19-testing-results-targeting-george-floyd-protesters/32884377

Updated: 3:58 PM EDT Jun 16, 2020


"Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced Tuesday that the state has received the results of the thousands of coronavirus tests conducted on residents who have participated in protests, marches and rallies since the death of George Floyd a month ago.

He said a total of 17,617 tests were conducted statewide at 52 free, pop-up testing sites set up on June 17 and 18. Of those tested, 2.5% came back positive for COVID-19, which Baker said is “reasonably consistent” with the overall statewide numbers."


https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/gov-baker-to-talk-coronavirus-boston-state-hospital-redevelopment/2147467/
By Marc Fortier • Published June 23, 2020 • Updated on June 24, 2020 at 5:21 am

One thing that might fall from a superficial look at the two test reports: increase the number tested (1,300 in a localized population vs 17,600 over a broader population) and you get an increase in positives (1.8% just from a single site vs 2.5% over 52 different sites).


the 2.5% was the original incorrect announcement from Baker that I posted and amended a day or two later when it was adjusted to below 2%.

The Roxbury test site probably has more significance to this specific protest and testing cycle as it is likely the section of Boston with the highest percentage of Black residents, and was the organized gathering spot for the peaceful march that ensued. Marchers were encouraged to go there for free testing, so even if mixed with cheapskate fake protesters, certainly by now we'd know if a spike akin to unmasked bar patrons resulted from protesters...I feel due to the very high percent of whom wore masks.

Nothing overwhelmingly dramatic about any of this, but it does indicate far more credibility than a random pop up test site in a white(er) suburb 10 to 50 miles away.

It is feeling like some politics are spurring much of this discussion.



HockeyDad Offline
#173 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
The arsonists and looters wore masks and kept moving all the time so Covid couldn’t catch them.
BuckyB93 Offline
#174 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,110
I don't think I, or intentionally injected politics into my post. I was just cutting and pasting from a couple sources that I found from a Google search. If there is a political spin it comes from the source that I posted although to me I don't really see it.

I'm still not convinced that we have a firm grip on the true infection rate within the state. Other than these short term open testing sites that they did, there isn't any open to all testing done in MA as far as I understand. Seems like they are still only testing those who think they have some of the signs. This is from the mass.gov site.

https://www.mass.gov/info-details/frequently-asked-questions-about-covid-19#should-i-be-tested?

"Should I be tested?

If you are a close contact of someone with COVID-19 or you are a resident in a community where there is ongoing spread of COVID-19 and develop symptoms of COVID-19, call your healthcare provider and tell them about your symptoms and your exposure. They will decide whether you need to be tested, but keep in mind that there is no treatment for COVID-19 and people who are mildly ill may be able to isolate and care for themselves at home.

For detailed information, visit the CDC’s webpage: Testing for COVID-19

You can also call 2-1-1, a 24-hour state-supported telephone hotline."


On a completely unrelated but moderately funny story. The WalMarts in MA and border states did a free Rona testing clinic for all their employees who wanted to get tested. I can only speak about the local WalMart here in town how they did their testing. Again, this little "I s#!+ you not" story only applies on how our local WalMart tested their employees and the other Walmart employees in the area that signed up for testing.

Tents like you'd buy and put up in your back yard for a party were erected in the Tire and Lube department (the garage where they install tires and change oil). It was cleaned by, I'm assuming WalMart employees ahead of time so we're all good there. Each person that wanted to be tested where given a tutorial on how the test was going to be done. They were then given the test kit and told them to collect the nose swab sample THEMSELVES in the presence of some certified tester or something.

I'm not making this up. This actually happened.
HockeyDad Offline
#175 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
That testing description sounds like ours in California from two months ago. Maybe just outdated.

In my county we have 11 testing sites. Anyone can get tested for free. No doctors note, visit, or referral. Only requirement is to make an appointment and half the sites can do that online versus phone only.
victor809 Offline
#176 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
HockeyDad wrote:
That testing description sounds like ours in California from two months ago. Maybe just outdated.

In my county we have 11 testing sites. Anyone can get tested for free. No doctors note, visit, or referral. Only requirement is to make an appointment and half the sites can do that online versus phone only.


Currently we are still only testing with a Dr's note.

So expect MO to start spiking.
teedubbya Offline
#177 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I thought there are only more cases because we are testing more. But now we are just testing folks with symptoms? Does this still mean the virus isn’t expanding and the media is blowing things out of proportion?

frankj1 Offline
#178 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
BuckyB93 wrote:
I don't think I, or intentionally injected politics into my post. I was just cutting and pasting from a couple sources that I found from a Google search. If there is a political spin it comes from the source that I posted although to me I don't really see it.

I'm still not convinced that we have a firm grip on the true infection rate within the state. Other than these short term open testing sites that they did, there isn't any open to all testing done in MA as far as I understand. Seems like they are still only testing those who think they have some of the signs. This is from the mass.gov site.

https://www.mass.gov/info-details/frequently-asked-questions-about-covid-19#should-i-be-tested?

"Should I be tested?

If you are a close contact of someone with COVID-19 or you are a resident in a community where there is ongoing spread of COVID-19 and develop symptoms of COVID-19, call your healthcare provider and tell them about your symptoms and your exposure. They will decide whether you need to be tested, but keep in mind that there is no treatment for COVID-19 and people who are mildly ill may be able to isolate and care for themselves at home.

For detailed information, visit the CDC’s webpage: Testing for COVID-19

You can also call 2-1-1, a 24-hour state-supported telephone hotline."


On a completely unrelated but moderately funny story. The WalMarts in MA and border states did a free Rona testing clinic for all their employees who wanted to get tested. I can only speak about the local WalMart here in town how they did their testing. Again, this little "I s#!+ you not" story only applies on how our local WalMart tested their employees and the other Walmart employees in the area that signed up for testing.

Tents like you'd buy and put up in your back yard for a party were erected in the Tire and Lube department (the garage where they install tires and change oil). It was cleaned by, I'm assuming WalMart employees ahead of time so we're all good there. Each person that wanted to be tested where given a tutorial on how the test was going to be done. They were then given the test kit and told them to collect the nose swab sample THEMSELVES in the presence of some certified tester or something.

I'm not making this up. This actually happened.


it did look like I singled you out because I quoted your post, sorry.
Also, I was attempting to limit my post to the protest march that started in Roxbury, not the full daily/weekly results of statewide testing
HockeyDad Offline
#179 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
frankj1 wrote:
it did look like I singled you out because I quoted your post, sorry.
Also, I was attempting to limit my post to the protest march that started in Roxbury, not the full daily/weekly results of statewide testing


That reminds me, what’s up with this peaceful Roxbury protest? Didn’t you guys trash and burn some stuff?

We did some serious destruction out here. Ain’t no protest like a West Coast protest.
HockeyDad Offline
#180 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,063
teedubbya wrote:
I thought there are only more cases because we are testing more. But now we are just testing folks with symptoms? Does this still mean the virus isn’t expanding and the media is blowing things out of proportion?



I don’t think Missouri counts are even added in to the US total.
frankj1 Offline
#181 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
HockeyDad wrote:
That reminds me, what’s up with this peaceful Roxbury protest? Didn’t you guys trash and burn some stuff?

We did some serious destruction out here. Ain’t no protest like a West Coast protest.

20K or so had a peaceful protest for several hours.
several hundred criminals did tremendous damage and looted that evening. They even had cars pull up as if on timers to load stolen goods.
It was very ugly. Several businesses will probably never reopen.
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