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Last post 3 years ago by BuckyB93. 40 replies replies.
Time to GET OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET???
Mr. Jones Offline
#1 Posted:
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,359
fog

I have zero stocks except a small $2k
IRA FROM a past job...
I went 100% cash right after ****ashima
Japan meltdown...
I missed the great rise in the stock market TOT.A.L.Ly...
BUT
BEFORE JAN. 20TH...YOU MIGHT WANNA HEDGE YOUR BETS..

If I was young and 100% totally in stocks and mutuals...I'd sell at least ...

"FIDDY" PERCENT INTO CASH...

THAT is JMHO...
HockeyDad Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,065
Another 2 trillion coming in fresh stimulus money.
teedubbya Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
So after your first few sentences were supposed to follow your advice in the last few got it
DrafterX Offline
#4 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,508
the peoples in Georgia will be pissed if it doesn't come.... Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#5 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
To be clear....

I was just kidding and stuff
Mr. Jones Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,359
I was in on the 2008 to very early 2011
Regain in value...

My portfolio went down 65%in that 2007-08 housing crash...

But...

It went back up to 98% of its pre-crash amount...

The day I friggin sold it...

I call that SMART...any way you look at it...

TW...you can eat my starfish and lose 65% your 401K just because ur DDUUUUPPPPIIIITTTTTT and a gambler...

Only dupit people can't see a correction coming...

Fiddy percent is a good compromise...

Post me on Jan.14, 2022 and tell me how much $$$ 💰💰
You made on your 401k...

OR

HOW MUCH YOU LOST...

BWUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Mr. Jones Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,359
TW

Ur 5:17 post came too late !!!

🤑🤑🤑🤑LOL good buddy !!!
teedubbya Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I’ve already moved a few things around but nothing major I’m pretty diversified anyway mostly in pitchforks and gash
DrafterX Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,508
thinking I should prolly stop throwing away my beer cans... Mellow
MACS Offline
#10 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
Historically speaking, the stock market is not concerned with a dem or rep presidency. Goes up and down on an upward trajectory. Only people on a roller coaster who get hurt are the ones that get off before the ride stops (yes, been listening to Dave Ramsey and Chris Hogan). If you plan on withdrawing money within the next few years, then yeah, get out now while it's topped out.

IMO the stimulus packages have not helped. We're much deeper in debt than we were, and we're going to feel that pinch. It's going to drop, and I think it's gonna be a doozy. I'm not even close to the person you should be listening to, but I'm just telling you what I think.

That said... in 2008 when the market sh*t the bed it went from 13k to 6500... if you got out then, you fked up bad... because now it's at 31k.

I have thought about getting out of the market in my 457b... only 30% of it is in, anyway. My 401a I will leave alone because I can't draw from it without a penalty for 8.5 years anyway.
gummy jones Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 07-06-2015
Posts: 7,969
If you have a long time horizon it's all probably irrelevant and you should stay in and regularly dollar cost average

If you want to try to time it some build up 20% cash but selling small caps and any weakest positions so you can buy in strong when the next dip happens (I'm saying will happen by July)
MACS Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
^Like I said... seriously considering going back to 100% fixed for my 457b (for now) because I think it will drop like a stone in the next few months. Not because of the prez, but because of the inflated market and the fact we'll be bazillions in debt if Jo-Jo passes another fkn stimulus.

The dollar ain't looking good... but thanks to fkn covid, neither is the euro.

Then put 30-40% back in when it's gone down as much as I think it will.
Cheno Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 06-06-2019
Posts: 1,935
I got some very high risk stocks in a play account I use. I been doing alot of moving around the last week or so and it is doing good. I am almost all in on a rumor on one stock in that account now and if it goes through, woohoo! If not oh well, better luck next time. I feel at almost 37 my 401k is decent enough right now and aggressive enough that I will be fine when I retire. Be greedy when others are fearful. BUY BUY BUY.
deadeyedick Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,957
Snooorr!

I have been saying our debt will catch up to us since 1970. Hasen't happened yet. There will be another dump sometime but I (and you) can't predict when. Most panic selling lasts a few months just like it did with the COVID last year. If you stayed the course you are most likely up for 2020. My overall portfolio increased 14.3% last year at that includes bonds and money market which holds the total down.

I'll stay in and only pull out what the gobment says I have to.
MACS Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
^DED - my 401a is 50% fixed and 50% Fidelity... and it got me almost 16% last year. My 457b was 100% fixed until the covid crash. Then I put 30% of it into Fidelity... and I got 6% overall and only had 30% of it invested for 2 qtrs.

88% of my money is in the 457b, though. d'oh! If it was the other way around, I would have fkn killed it last year.
deadeyedick Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,957
Saying you are in Fidelity means nothing. It's like saying you like a Ford. Could be most anything. Balanced fund?
MACS Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
deadeyedick wrote:
Saying you are in Fidelity means nothing. It's like saying you like a Ford. Could be most anything. Balanced fund?


Yes, balanced. I didn't want to say which...
frankj1 Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
MACS wrote:
Yes, balanced. I didn't want to say which...

just give us your fidelity password and we'll take it from there
Mr. Jones Offline
#19 Posted:
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,359
I must preface my remarks and statement...

I am 64...

You dude's have 30-25 yrs...

Have at it...

Sounds like you have been playing it well...

Us old guys can't lose 50% again...
I guess my advice is for 55+++..

I shoulda stayed in it from 2011 till now...
I f'd up..
Prolly would be sitting on 25-40++%more money???

But when you lose 65% OF YOUR RETIREMENT SAVINGS and are going thru a divorce...
"I said...I like what I had...I lost way over half...I gained it back minus 2%...sell sell sell and get the "F" out !!!

Glad I did...

Then ,
the FBI-SSG STOLE A MILLION IN CASH FROM MY HUT...THAT WAS WAY WORSE THAN THE 2007-08 HOUSING STOCK MKT CRASH...NOT EVEN TAKING INTO ACCT THE 5+ years of FBI-SSG GANGSTALKING and
9+ murder attempts on my sorry tradecraft 😎😎😎trained frame (only reason I'm alive)... 😎😎😎
rfenst Offline
#20 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
How do you guys manage/calculate the taxes on what you personally trade?
gummy jones Offline
#21 Posted:
Joined: 07-06-2015
Posts: 7,969
I do my best to pay no short term gains

I used to mess around with margin, shorts, etc but it wasn't worth the headaches
MACS Offline
#22 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
frankj1 wrote:
just give us your fidelity password and we'll take it from there


I do not have a Fidelity account. My 457 and my 401 are both with Nationwide, which was offered at work along with AIG/Valic. Since AIG/Valic reps were never there and very unreliable, I chose Nationwide. Wicked Smaht...

Nationwide allows me to manage my own account, if I choose not to use their "pro" account (only a .70% charge) to manage my funds. They also provide research and prospectuses for all funds they have. I got more time than I have sense... so I had been doing a lot of reading and research. With what I have read and researched... Fidelity and Vanguard balanced funds have been doing very well for many years. *shrug*

Can't argue with success, right?
MACS Offline
#23 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
rfenst wrote:
How do you guys manage/calculate the taxes on what you personally trade?


For me, personally... I pay nothing in taxes until I withdraw some. Standard tax withholding is 20% if I choose to withdraw. Nationwide reports it to the IRS and pays the taxes before I ever get the money. If it was too much or too little... that's up to me to reconcile at tax time.
Cheno Offline
#24 Posted:
Joined: 06-06-2019
Posts: 1,935
rfenst wrote:
How do you guys manage/calculate the taxes on what you personally trade?


If I get anything big, or hit a jackpot when I was going to a casino (been a few years) I would just ask my FIL who is our tax man. If I need to adjust anything I would just estimate what I need to pay extra on my pay checks so I don't owe at tax time.
BuckyB93 Offline
#25 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,111
I was putting some money aside in a savings account to buy the kids their first car when they come of driving age in the next 2 or 3 years. They don't know it exists, I'm telling them they have to get a job and save on their own for one.

On a whim, I moved it from a regular savings account to it's own little brokerage account with Ameritrade back in August (no fee trades). It's something to play with and see if I could grow it a little rather than have it sit in a boring savings account letting the bank make money off of it.

So far it's up about 35%. It's mostly all tech stock stuff. Not individual companies but ETFs, no bonds. It's completely unbalanced and lots of overlap between the ETFs. It would give a real financial advisor heartburn. Maybe someday I'll spend some time to streamline it.

Approx breakdown of the portfolio's main ETFs:
25% FAANG & NASDAQ-100 index (QQQ, some other FAANG picks)
23% Innovation (ARKK, ARKW, LOUP)
23% Green Energy (TAN, PBW, LIT, QCLN)
13% Heath Care Genom (ARKG)
6% Next Gen NASDAQ (QQQJ)
5% each in Consumer Discretionary (IBUY) and FinTech (ARKF)

If you do a canned x-ray analysis on what's in the bucket of the various ETF's and break it down into the major stock sectors, they fall into a Large Cap, Aggressive Growth benchmark.

Energy: 0.25%
Materials: 3%
Industrials: 10%
Consumer Discretionary: 16%
Consumer Staples: 1%
Health Care: 18%
Financials: 1.5%
Information Technology 37%
Communication Services: 11%
Utilities: 3%
Real Estate: 0.25%

80% US stock
15% Asia stock
5% Europe stock

45% Large Cap
30% Mid Cap
25% Small Cap

Riding the wave after the COVID crash. If and when the market crashes again, I'll bail out before I lose the principle. If that's the case, I'm no worse off than if it was sitting in a generic savings account. If it totally bellies up overnight and my secret kids car fund goes poof then the kids will have to walk in the snow... up hill... both ways like the good old days. Besides, the bus schedules are free and I can dumpster dive for unclaimed lottery tickets to buy them some good walking shoes.

It's not my retirement, just a little something to play with.
ZRX1200 Offline
#26 Posted:
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,476
I got a lil’ something for you Bucky.
Speyside Offline
#27 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Sell high, buy low. I am out right now. When the adjustment hits and this bubble bursts I will go back in. This time at my point in life I probably won't go high risk high reward. I am thinking blue chip, managed well, and good dividend. Other than when adjustments seem imminent I only sell when management changes and I don't like how the running of the company changed.
teedubbya Offline
#28 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I’m going all in on pork rinds. I think they are the snack of the future!
BuckyB93 Offline
#29 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,111
Close... I think you meant hemp is the world's premiere food source. There's a handful of thematic ETF's for that too.

POTX: Global X Cannabis ETF
THCX: Cannabis ETF
MJO: Indxx MicroSectors Cannabis 2X Leveraged ETN
MJ: Alternative Harvest ETF
CNBS: Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF
YOLO: AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF
TOKE: Cambria Cannabis ETF
MSOS: AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
MJJ: Indxx MicroSectors Cannabis ETN
ACT: AdvisorShares Vice ETF


Twenty NINE!
BuckyB93 Offline
#30 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,111
There are mutual funds and ETFs for just about any investor. Not only ones that are focused on the different sectors or investment goals/strategies… but many other themes.

Christian beliefs:
“The Inspire Global Hope Large Cap ETF BLES —which made its debut on Tuesday, along with a small and midcap fund ISMD, with an identical strategy—was designed for religious investors looking to have their portfolio holdings align with their personal beliefs.”

Sexual/Identity:
“Workplace Equality ETF US:EQLT, a three-year-old fund that chooses its holdings based on the company’s support of LGBT employees and policies.”

Gender diversity:
“[The] Gender Diversity Index ETF SHE, a fund that only holds companies where women are in senior-level positions. The Gender Diversity ETF was developed for essentially political reasons, as a way to offer investors a convenient instrument for supporting a progressive cause. However, both also claim financial reasons to invest, arguing that their focus results in improved performance.”

And Drafter’s favorite:
SLIM - "The investment seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance, before fees and expenses, of an index which is designed to track the performance of companies globally that are positioned to profit from servicing the obese, including biotechnology, pharmaceutical, health care and medical device companies whose business is focused on obesity and obesity related disease and companies focused on weight loss programs, weight loss supplements, or plus sized apparel. The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in the stocks that comprise the Solactive Obesity Index. It is non-diversified."
delta1 Offline
#31 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
haha...SLIM...................servicing the obese....Solactive Obesity Index...

but with so many fatties in the world nowadays, this might be worth keeping an eye on...
frankj1 Offline
#32 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
there is a great future in plastics
8trackdisco Offline
#33 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
Is Mr. Jones really Mr. Jones, or Ricksamaven on a gallon of Red Bull?
delta1 Offline
#34 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
definitely not RICKAMAVEN, RIP...
Thunder.Gerbil Offline
#35 Posted:
Joined: 11-02-2006
Posts: 121,359
MACS wrote:

The dollar ain't looking good... but thanks to fkn covid, neither is the euro.


But the Pound is down too so AJ's inventory is looking affordable for once...
teedubbya Offline
#36 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Pork rinds are holding strong
MACS Offline
#37 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
Thunder.Gerbil wrote:
But the Pound is down too so AJ's inventory is looking affordable for once...


True... true...
izonfire Offline
#38 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
frankj1 wrote:
there is a great future in plastics

There will be residuals for years to come...
zitotczito Offline
#39 Posted:
Joined: 08-21-2006
Posts: 6,441
I retired 4 years ago and taking into account SS and pensions I put enough into my Fed 401k to pay me a fixed income until I was 93. I stopped taking anything out 2 years ago and now have enough to llast until 97. All in gov bonds and the account never goes down, it's allows me to sleep at night.

When the Covid hit I sold 70% of my Roth IRA and Regular IRA and jumped back in when the market recovered and hit 20,000. I have done very well. I have been converting the IRA to the Roth using what I would have taken out of the 401K and converted the losers and all have returned to the green. When my accounts reached the pre-Covid total amount, I started taking out the profits above that level and just keep them in cash waiting for the big crash.
BuckyB93 Offline
#40 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,111
I'm curious on the cryptocurrency/blockchain thingie. Maybe I'll do a little research, drop a little play money into one or two of those that and see how it floats.
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