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WSJ Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
rfenst Online
#1 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

WSJ
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.


Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.

I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.

any experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.


Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.


Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
MACS Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
Huh... imagine that. NOW we've got herd immunity.

Anyone want to bet it'd be a different angle if Trump was still the president? Bueller? Bueller?

It'd be funny if it wasn't so f---ing pathetic.
delta1 Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
there is HOPE, if true...

and there was a story about early treatment using monoclonal anti-body infusion among coronavirus patients speeding up their recovery while avoiding hospitalization in ICU and serious illness

https://www.latimes.com/science/newsletter/2021-01-21/coronavirus-today-the-elusive-antibody-treatment-coronavirus-today
HockeyDad Offline
#4 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,065
April of which year? We will still be locked down in California this April.

The governor is starting to dangle out there that some counties might get indoor dining at 25% next week!
rfenst Online
#5 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
delta1 wrote:
there is HOPE, if true...
https://www.latimes.com/science/newsletter/2021-01-21/coronavirus-today-the-elusive-antibody-treatment-coronavirus-today

How dare you post alink to a liberal rag like LAT!


Sarcasm
Speyside Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Wow! Thanks Robert, that is fantastic. The death rate is about what the initial expectation was. Maybe we can get back to normal sooner than later.
plinytheelder Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 10-24-2006
Posts: 8,833
So, let me get this straight, a Rupert Murdoch owned media outlet is stating something that doesn't seem likely and can only make some people believe (as opposed to all the people) that Trump was right all along?

In Colorado, they're still on Cat1B only for vaccinations. No under 70's and no younger people and they're going to get to herd immunity in a month and a half?

There is no way that is true.
BuckyB93 Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,111
We could have it by tomorrow. It will take some coordination though. Need to draft up an executive order claiming as much, get Biden to sign it, then issue a press release.
BuckyB93 Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,111
NINE!
rfenst Online
#10 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
plinytheelder wrote:
So, let me get this straight, a Rupert Murdoch owned media outlet is stating something that doesn't seem likely and can only make some people believe (as opposed to all the people) that Trump was right all along?

In Colorado, they're still on Cat1B only for vaccinations. No under 70's and no younger people and they're going to get to herd immunity in a month and a half?

[size.9]There is no way that is true[/size].

Meh. WSJ is a conservative, business-oriented news paper that supported Trump. The Opinion was not that of WSJ. Just some highly educated and experienced write-in individual.
plinytheelder Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 10-24-2006
Posts: 8,833
rfenst wrote:
Meh. WSJ is a conservative, business-oriented news paper that supported Trump. The Opinion was not that of WSJ. Just some highly educated and experienced write-in individual.


The reason I put Rupert Murdoch owned is because before he bought the WSJ, they didn't have opinion pieces that weren't based on facts.
delta1 Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
corona virus according to cons:

first, the coronavirus is a fake...

then it's going to magically disappear...

then, the virus is real, but hydroxychloroquine, lysol and UV lights will fix it, and masks and shutdowns are silly

then, deaths rates from COVID by CDC and Dems are exaggerated and extremely inflated...

then it's gonna disappear on the special day, Nov 3...

Dems are lying about their death rates... they downplayed the numbers, which were much higher than they said

now, the pandemic is here and seriously, who thinks herd immunity is achievable anytime soon?
Mandobro Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 04-10-2013
Posts: 714
So, herd immunity by April. Great, which strain?
Speyside Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Dr Markay, highly respected. I back tracked this. At least to me, he makes sense medically.
teedubbya Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I don't buy it knowing what I know. But MACS really needs to take Trumps deek out of is mouth and annunciate better.
frankj1 Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
Mandobro wrote:
So, herd immunity by April. Great, which strain?

herd immunity to cow pox?
delta1 Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
teedubbya wrote:
I don't buy it knowing what I know. But MACS really needs to take Trumps deek out of is mouth and annunciate better.



he was talkin outta his azz...but either way...
MACS Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
Ya'll can both eat a deek.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/major-covid-19-metrics-are-falling/618068/

I'm sure this is all because of Biden's great leadership, though, right?
MACS Offline
#19 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
delta1 wrote:
corona virus according to cons:

first, the coronavirus is a fake... IIRC nobody said it was fake, just overblown (still true)

then it's going to magically disappear... Well isn't it "disappearing" now that Trump isn't in office?

then, the virus is real, but hydroxychloroquine, lysol and UV lights will fix it, and masks and shutdowns are silly C'mon, man

then, deaths rates from COVID by CDC and Dems are exaggerated and extremely inflated... Still are... what happened to the regular ol' flu?

then it's gonna disappear on the special day, Nov 3... Nobody said that, they said restrictions would be relaxed and whataya know...

Dems are lying about their death rates... they downplayed the numbers, which were much higher than they said

now, the pandemic is here and seriously, who thinks herd immunity is achievable anytime soon?

rfenst Online
#20 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
MACS wrote:
I'm sure this is all because of Biden's great leadership, though, right?

I give more credit to Trump as he got the ball rolling, got the vaccine made fast and safe, and began deployment.
Smooth light Offline
#21 Posted:
Joined: 06-26-2020
Posts: 3,598
This is what happens when you pass the ball off to someone who can't dribble.
tonygraz Offline
#22 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,175
Based on the stupidity shown by some, I doubt there will be a herd immunity until late May if at all. As to what happened to the regular flu - masks, hand washing, surface cleaning and sanitizing kept it from getting started. Too bad trump and the idiots that follow him didn't do anything from day 1 to stop the covid.
tailgater Offline
#23 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
delta1 wrote:
corona virus according to cons:

first, the coronavirus is a fake...

then it's going to magically disappear...

then, the virus is real, but hydroxychloroquine, lysol and UV lights will fix it, and masks and shutdowns are silly

then, deaths rates from COVID by CDC and Dems are exaggerated and extremely inflated...

then it's gonna disappear on the special day, Nov 3...

Dems are lying about their death rates... they downplayed the numbers, which were much higher than they said

now, the pandemic is here and seriously, who thinks herd immunity is achievable anytime soon?


You say "cons" like it's a plural.
Most of this is poppycock.
MACS Offline
#24 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
tonygraz wrote:
Based on the stupidity shown by some, I doubt there will be a herd immunity until late May if at all. As to what happened to the regular flu - masks, hand washing, surface cleaning and sanitizing kept it from getting started. Too bad trump and the idiots that follow him didn't do anything from day 1 to stop the covid.


Yeeaaahhhh... stopped the flu, but not the covid... and the flu was starting to be bad before the covid d'oh!
tailgater Offline
#25 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
teedubbya wrote:
I don't buy it knowing what I know. But MACS really needs to take Trumps deek out of is mouth and annunciate better.


Can you provide an example of how his numbers are wrong?
From the WSJ article, not Robert's post which is incomplete.

I'll admit it seems/feels hopeful. But after 12 months of Chicken Little from every news source I think anything would.
tailgater Offline
#26 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
tonygraz wrote:
Based on the stupidity shown by some, I doubt there will be a herd immunity until late May if at all. As to what happened to the regular flu - masks, hand washing, surface cleaning and sanitizing kept it from getting started. Too bad trump and the idiots that follow him didn't do anything from day 1 to stop the covid.


And I missed you most of all, scarecrow.

rfenst Online
#27 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
tailgater wrote:
And I missed you most of all, scarecrow.


From what I have read, he's right about the flu.
tonygraz Offline
#28 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,175
Didn't tail call the King of the Cove a scarecrow when he first warned us of the covid about a year ago ?
8trackdisco Offline
#29 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
So many different reports it’s obvious nobody knows what is going on.

Everything from April Herd Immunity to No Promises for Traditional Family Christmas.

Media outlets are just selling space, tv and airwaves. Selling the sensationalism.
MACS Offline
#30 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
Indeed, sir. And we're told to "follow the science"... but it's a new virus and the science has been playing catch-up the whole damn time. And scientists would never, ever come to conclusions that their investors want them to, or that they have preconcieved notions about, right?
8trackdisco Offline
#31 Posted:
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 59,992
MACS wrote:
Indeed, sir. And we're told to "follow the science"... but it's a new virus and the science has been playing catch-up the whole damn time. And scientists would never, ever come to conclusions that their investors want them to, or that they have preconcieved notions about, right?


In an Al Davis voice...... Just Sell, Baby.
rfenst Online
#32 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,100
tonygraz wrote:
Didn't tail call the King of the Cove a scarecrow when he first warned us of the covid about a year ago ?

He was so right on the money that it is almost scarry.
tailgater Offline
#33 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
tonygraz wrote:
Didn't tail call the King of the Cove a scarecrow when he first warned us of the covid about a year ago ?


I'd like to see that post. Not saying I didn't. But I don't recall.

Besides, I called you the scarecrow because blaming Trump proves you don't have brain.
teedubbya Offline
#34 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
And yet the very same folks that have been so vocally wrong all along continue to be vocal and continue to be wrong.

This was predictable and still is. As far as viruses go this is vanilla in terms of acting as expected. The science has been on it but largely ignored by not only those that don’t know any better but also by some in power that do. The vax is a pretty cool triumph of tech and knowledge gained over the last decade or so. Fascinating. It’s not new. Application to this virus is.

Had we not fought against the science and against each other in the interest of politics, alleged freedom and ignorance many of the lives lost would not have been. We, the US have embarrassed ourselves on this one. Our politics knee capped our exceptional abilities. The least common denominator knuckle draggers over influenced things.

But let’s continue the same crap. That’s why I don’t buy early heard immunity. Even with the vaccine it takes human decision making. I’m working directly on vax hesitancy, distribution, coordination, storage, public messaging etc

And those that say this as nothing but the flu (wrong), nothing but a tool to beat trump (wrong) and it would go away after the election (wrong) or that masks are worthless (wrong) and the government wants us to wear them just to scare and control us (wrong) are still out there. Not to mention the idiots that thought we’d just get to a natural herd immunity if we do nothing and 99% live so what’s the problem? They are still out there.

Vax itself is worthless vax in arms is the fix. But there is a rather large vocal cabal of truly uninformed idiots that have made trying to make progress against this pandemic more difficult the entire way. And they still are. It’s as if their superpower is to create their own personal amnesia about how wrong they have been in order to be so sure they are right now and to vocally say so.

Folks don’t ever seem to look backwards and reflect internally on how they might improve in the future. And we continue to repeat the nonsense.

It is so frustrating because there is a roadmap to manage this thing. It’s not even an entirely new road map. This may be new to you but it has been known for some time by those in the field. Folks just dont like the map or are somehow convinced they know more than those evil experts. This could have cost us less in terms of lives, long term health and quality of life implications (most important) dollars and long term inconvenience or perceived loss of freedom. We made a difficult situation more difficult with our stubbornness, ignorance and selfishness cloaked as independence.
tonygraz Offline
#35 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,175
And the trumpanzees still think trump did a good job. Over 1/2 million dead and counting. How f***ing stupid can they get.
teedubbya Offline
#36 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
This has been predictable. Predictable doesn’t mean every inch of it or I can tell you the answer next Tuesday is 12. Predictable in that it’s been pretty easy to model and fits a predictable pattern. As we learn more the models adjust.

This really has been vanilla and would have been a great test of the pandemic plans that were in place but thrown out by pure politics. The models have been so spit on they even accurately predicted outcomes of poor decision making along the way. Folks claimed the model was wrong up front, made bad decisions then tried to claim the models wrong in the tail end. It was their own doing lol.

For anyone looking at and preparing for things like this for decades rather than minutes it a has been surreal in how it played out as expected based on changing variables and decision points.
teedubbya Offline
#37 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Who knew something like this could happen? Everyone in the field. It was planned for. I worked on pandemic plans in previous administrations of both parties. They were thrown out and the science discarded out of political inconvenience.

MACS Offline
#38 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
Silence... the covid science expert has spoken!

I keel you! Gonz
teedubbya Offline
#39 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
It’s scary when folks know a hell of a lot about a particular subject you know little about and they point out when you are wrong.

There are many subjects I know very little about. This isn’t one of them. And there are many MANY people that know more about it then me. I spend most of my days listening to them rather than trying to tell them they don’t or trying to tear down their knowledge base.
teedubbya Offline
#40 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
And you are a poopy head.
Gene363 Online
#41 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,669
Yes, self-righteous politics really screwed things up.
teedubbya Offline
#42 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Most politics is self righteous. This never should have been political.
MACS Offline
#43 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,593
I ain't askeered...
teedubbya Offline
#44 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Lol I know
Gene363 Online
#45 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,669
teedubbya wrote:
Most politics is self righteous. This never should have been political.


Agree, but politicians cannot resist accumulating power, regardless of the damage, and they always have a legion of useful idiots to do their bidding.
teedubbya Offline
#46 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
On that we definitely agree
teedubbya Offline
#47 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Both parties are the same. That recognition makes me sad.
teedubbya Offline
#48 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
But none of this changes the fact MACS is a poopy head and eats donkey turds.
Gene363 Online
#49 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,669
teedubbya wrote:
But none of this changes the fact MACS is a poopy head and eats donkey turds.


No, he isn't and calling him names won't change anything, you can only change you.
Gene363 Online
#50 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,669
teedubbya wrote:
Both parties are the same. That recognition makes me sad.


But you not surprised.horse
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