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MACS to Florida Journey Journal
delta1 Offline
#201 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 27,369
other than screening material, any recommendations for mosquito repellant?
Sunoverbeach Online
#202 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 11,826
rfenst wrote:
, but we could be out of here fast (or not), so I cannot make a decision if it is best to do yet.

Waiting to see if Macs makes his move before you decide to run for it. Smart
HockeyDad Offline
#203 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 43,503
Where’s rfenst heading to? Cali?
MACS Offline
#204 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Yeah... where ya going, Robert?

Photographer was here today. Took pictures inside and outside.

Wife is bipolar on the move. One day she's fine, next day she's grumpy. Ol' MACS has completely run out of "give a sh*t".
dkeage Offline
#205 Posted:
Joined: 03-05-2004
Posts: 14,349
MACS wrote:
Yeah... where ya going, Robert?

Photographer was here today. Took pictures inside and outside.

Wife is bipolar on the move. One day she's fine, next day she's grumpy. Ol' MACS has completely run out of "give a sh*t".



WOMEN are bipolar....
MACS Offline
#206 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
dkeage wrote:
WOMEN are bipolar....


Amen, brother... amen.
rfenst Offline
#207 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 36,825
HockeyDad wrote:
Where’s rfenst heading to? Cali?

Tahoe Baby!!!
(in my dreams)
rfenst Offline
#208 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 36,825
MACS wrote:
Yeah... where ya going, Robert?

Photographer was here today. Took pictures inside and outside.

Wife is bipolar on the move. One day she's fine, next day she's grumpy. Ol' MACS has completely run out of "give a sh*t".

Nowhere yet. Just want to get out of our house while the market is still hot, rent for a year or so, then figure it all out. If our son is really going to stay in South Florida/Miami and our daughter buys a home in Boca Raton we will move down there (regrettably). But, we still aren't in the 100% serious faze quite yet, so I am just yapping...
rfenst Offline
#209 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 36,825
When the Best Available Home Is the One You Already Have

The housing market has altered the math of moving for nearly everyone.



NYT

May 27, 2022
In this housing market, it makes less and less sense to move. American homeowners sitting on the lowest mortgage rates in modern history will find it far costlier to buy their next home. Renters facing steep inflation may be better off renewing a lease than hunting for a new one. And for most everyone, it’s gotten harder to find the right next home when there are so few vacant ones available.

The simplest and most affordable decision for many Americans will be to stay put — even if their homes become too small, too big, too crowded, too far from work, too isolated from family, or too much to maintain.

The rate at which Americans move, both across town and across the country, has been steadily declining since the 1980s. Now all of the conditions in the housing market are aligned to grind down that mobility rate even more. That’s a problem both for the broader economy — workers may need to move to reach new jobs — and for millions of households who will find it hard to change their homes to match their changing lives.

“All of this is suggesting that America may be stuck in place,” said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

One likely consequence: “Unanimously,” Mr. Yun said, “I think people would say there’s less happiness in the country as people are living in a mis-housed unit.”

Kyren Bogolub’s mis-housed unit is a two-bed, one-bath duplex in Boulder, Colo., that she shares with her partner and a third housemate. They moved in in 2020, attracted to what seemed like a temporary, cheap and dog-friendly home — a good place to finish graduate school on meager stipends.

But a year after graduating, they’re still living like this: Ms. Bogolub and her partner, Colin Sturrock, in a room that holds their bed and the two desks where they work remotely. They’ve set up the room so that one of them can change clothes even if the other is on Zoom. They’ve taped over the blinking computer lights that can make it hard to sleep at night.

“The plan was graduate, get jobs, move,” said Ms. Bogolub, who is 33. “We’ve done two of those three things.”

The third has proved far harder. Their alternatives are a study in the absurdity of the American housing market today. Boulder rents have risen more than 15 percent in the last year. Boulder County also lost more than a thousand homes to wildfires in December, making competition for housing even stiffer. Ms. Bogolub has looked into buying, too. Then a little two-bed, one-bath house a couple of blocks away sold this month: 864 square feet in need of a remodel for $1.25 million.

Boulder County lost more than a thousand homes to wildfires in December, making competition for housing in the area even stiffer. A mailbox and basketball hoop remain from a burned home in Louisville, Colo.

By comparison, the bedroom with the two desks doesn’t seem so bad — even for two adults in their 30s with decent jobs.

“That’s what’s sort of mind-boggling,” said Ms. Bogolub, who now works for the Colorado Geological Survey. “If we can’t really get this going, I don’t know who can.”

In the mid-1980s, about one in five people in America moved annually, most of them within the same county. By 2021, that number had fallen to one in 12. And all signs this spring point to even more people stuck as Ms. Bogolub has been: New mortgage applications and home sales have fallen. Money spent remodeling housing has soared. And renters are renewing their leases at record levels.

The housing market has altered the math of moving for nearly everyone. With rents rising at record pace, tenants typically face smaller price hikes sticking with their current landlord than signing a new lease. That’s because landlords want to avoid the costs of finding new tenants and turning over a property.

“You get a discount to stay put,” said Jay Parsons, the chief economist at RealPage, a platform used by property managers to process and track rents. The problem isn’t just that it’s more expensive to move, he said. The buildings with the most vacancies today are also the most expensive ones.

In the calculus for homeowners, mortgage rates fell to a modern low earlier in the pandemic. With widespread refinancing, four in five mortgage-holders today have an interest rate under 5 percent (half have a rate at 4 percent or lower). Now those bargain rates will have the effect of locking many homeowners in place if interest rates remain elevated after a recent rise.

These dynamics are further connected to each other. When people buy a home or find a new rental, they create a chain of vacancies that open up behind them.

“Most people are living off of other people’s decisions to vacate a unit,” said Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and demography at the University of Southern California.

Every newly built home has a similar effect, enabling a series of vacancies, including among rentals. Conversely, every person who doesn’t move helps clog the local market for others.

Economists have primarily worried about the long-term decline in long-distance moves, given that migration from one part of the country to another has tended to be a source of upward mobility.

What causes inflation? It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems.

Is inflation bad? It depends on the circumstances. Fast price increases spell trouble, but moderate price gains can lead to higher wages and job growth.

How does inflation affect the poor? Inflation can be especially hard to shoulder for poor households because they spend a bigger chunk of their budgets on necessities like food, housing and gas.

Can inflation affect the stock market? Rapid inflation typically spells trouble for stocks. Financial assets in general have historically fared badly during inflation booms, while tangible assets like houses have held their value better.

But today the most prosperous parts of the country also have the most expensive housing. That deters people from moving where they might find better jobs, ultimately constraining America’s economic growth, economists say.

Since the housing bust of the mid-2000s, however, nearly all of the nationwide decline in mobility has come from a drop in local moves, and in local moves by renters, Mr. Myers and colleagues find.

Over this time, the supply of new housing built in America has increasingly fallen behind demand. Millennials, now the largest living adult generation, came of age over the same period trying to form their own households and later buy their own homes. The combination of that demographic pressure and the mounting housing shortage helped set up the affordability crisis today.

In 2019, on the eve of the pandemic, there were 19.4 million more renters in America than in 2006. And so we’d expect there to be many more renter movers by then, too. But by 2019, there were actually 3.6 million fewer renters who had moved in the previous year than in 2006.

“That’s a precipitous decline,” said Riordan Frost, who studies mobility at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. “It’s really only going to get lower as people are unable to afford the asking rent” on a new unit.

All of this matters, he said, not just because people need to move for better jobs, or better-fitting homes. America remains deeply segregated by race and income, and research shows that the neighborhoods where children grow up influence their fortunes in life. If people don’t move as often, Mr. Frost said, families in segregated or less prosperous places have fewer chances to break out of those patterns.

“If people are failing to move to adapt to changing family circumstances, that has colossal social costs,” said Michael Andersen, a researcher at the Sightline Institute, which advocates greater housing construction. That means young families who can’t move near relatives for help, or aging Americans isolated from social networks.

In coming years, many households may simply not move out of a kind of paralysis of indecision.

Joe Swiderski and his wife have lived in the same Washington row home since 2013. They would like more space for their two daughters, now 7 and 2. But they refinanced during the pandemic into a 20-year loan that shaved three years off their mortgage and cut their interest rate to 2.5 percent. That has made what should be a fairly simple decision — a growing family needs a bigger house — much more complicated, Mr. Swiderski said.

“What are you going to weigh more?” he said. A bigger yard, or a higher interest rate? The lack of storage, or the soaring price of housing? “What’s finally going to be the tipping point?” he said. “We don’t necessarily know.”

Ms. Bogolub, in Boulder, will most likely stay put for now, too, if her landlord again offers to renew their lease without raising the rent. In the time she and Mr. Sturrock have lived in this home, however, their lives have changed in at least one way that could ease their housing search: A couple of months ago, their dog died.

“When that happened,” Ms. Bogolub said, “I was kind of like, ‘Well, I guess on one hand this probably improves our options for rental units.’”




Emily Badger writes about cities and urban policy for The Upshot from the Washington bureau. She's particularly interested in housing, transportation and inequality — and how they’re all connected. She joined The Times in 2016 from The Washington Post. @emilymbadger
MACS Offline
#210 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Screw Emily... I'm outa here.

And one can still obtain a decent interest rate with a good credit score and a hefty down payment.
Palama Offline
#211 Posted:
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 19,768
^^^ You think Drafter saw her tits once? Gonz

Edit: I Googled her pic...hard pass...titties or no titties. Not talking
HockeyDad Offline
#212 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 43,503
Boulder is the Berkeley of Colorado. Californians ruined it many years ago.
Whistlebritches Offline
#213 Posted:
Joined: 04-23-2006
Posts: 21,713
HockeyDad wrote:
Boulder is the Berkeley of Colorado. Californians ruined it many years ago.



Amen to that...........if you were in Boulder in the 80's or 90's you do not want to go back EVAH!!!
delta1 Offline
#214 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 27,369
My wife and I gave some thought to moving a few years ago...we were annoyed by the heavy traffic, smog, crowds and overwhelming presence of homelessness in SoCal. After weighing the positives and negatives, we decided to stick it out, and have decided that was the right decision especially after we both retired and no longer do the daily slog on the "freeways" and also since we moved to Corona, close to our son and his family and our daughter and her family.

My wife's brother and his wife and his older son and his family own homes in Temecula. His other son lives in Downey, about 40 miles away.

My older sister has moved into an assisted living senior community about a mile away, and needs my wife and me to look after her affairs.

My other sister lives in Cerritos, about 35 miles away. Her kids and grandkids are also in the area so we gather for family get togethers.

So with all of our families living in a 50 mile radius, and since we are family centric, we are firmly rooted.
rfenst Offline
#215 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 36,825
MACS wrote:
Screw Emily... I'm outa here.

And one can still obtain a decent interest rate with a good credit score and a hefty down payment.

Your situation is very different from most peoples'.
rfenst Offline
#216 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 36,825
I have too much equity tied-up in my house and that equity is decreasing with every upward tick of the interest rate.

IMO, this is our last best chance to max out on our equity for quite some time and save/invest it until the next recession when we would be able to buy a place at a deflated price.

Plus, I don't want the maintenance surprises, expenses and headaches. I'll end-up in a mini lot-line retirement-type community in South Florida with a community center/pool, nice tennis courts for my wife and a golf course, etc., etc. -half way between where each of my kids ends up living down there.
HockeyDad Offline
#217 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 43,503
rfenst wrote:
Your situation is very different from most peoples'.


Mine as well. The daughter is headed to physician assistant school in August in NYC. After she leaves we don’t have a relative west of Texas.
MACS Offline
#218 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Most of my family is on the east coast, too. Wife has a sister in Ohio, a cousin in Mississippi and her brother and our son will be the only relatives left on the west coast.
MACS Offline
#219 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Realtor sent the comps in my neighborhood. One house is listed at $599k, but has a lot of upgrades. The other is listed at $577k and looks like toasted arse.

I'm hoping for somewhere in the middle.
Sunoverbeach Online
#220 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 11,826
$588k would round it out nicely
MACS Offline
#221 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
I would be pleased with that amount.

Market has cooled a bit thanks to ol' Bidey's economy, inflation and interest rate hikes. F--- that guy.
Sunoverbeach Online
#222 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 11,826
As one with a spouse who keeps talking about buying bigger, I'm down with a chilly market
MACS Offline
#223 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Sunoverbeach wrote:
As one with a spouse who keeps talking about buying bigger, I'm down with a chilly market


Our house is 1350 sq ft. 2 story, with all the bedrooms upstairs. 3BR 2.5BA.

The one we really want is in construction... One story - 4BR 3BA, 3 car garage... 2657 sq ft. So twice the size. Thought when you got old you were sposta get smaller. Wife wants 4BR because she knows one is automatically a man cave. lol

This community is under construction with a bunch scheduled to be done in Oct/Nov. Some may be ready sooner, but we shall see. May have to rent for a bit, but I really don't want to move twice.
DrafterX Offline
#224 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 96,149
Bedroom man-cave won't work.. you'll need to convert part of da garage or if your roof line allows it, over the garage.. Mellow
Palama Offline
#225 Posted:
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 19,768
MACS wrote:
Our house is 1350 sq ft. 2 story, with all the bedrooms upstairs. 3BR 2.5BA.

The one we really want is in construction... One story - 4BR 3BA, 3 car garage... 2657 sq ft. So twice the size. Thought when you got old you were sposta get smaller. Wife wants 4BR because she knows one is automatically a man cave. lol

This community is under construction with a bunch scheduled to be done in Oct/Nov. Some may be ready sooner, but we shall see. May have to rent for a bit, but I really don't want to move twice.


Sounds sweet! How much is that doggie in the window?

And like you said, as you get older you’d want a smaller place but at least it’s one level. Going up and down stairs may become an issue later on. Three bedrooms with a Man Cave, who wouldn’t want that? Better yet, a 3 car garage does give even more options.
MACS Offline
#226 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
The doggies we're looking at are in the 350-400k-ish range.

No frickin' fences around the yards, though... so that'll be an added expense. Can't have Tank running around willy-nilly. He's a handsome mother funker... someone would dog-nap him.
Palama Offline
#227 Posted:
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 19,768
MACS wrote:
The doggies we're looking at are in the 350-400k-ish range.

No frickin' fences around the yards, though... so that'll be an added expense. Can't have Tank running around willy-nilly. He's a handsome mother funker... someone would dog-nap him.


Holy chit! Gonz

We could sell our home, buy two of those doggies and have $50K to $100K leftover! d'oh!

MACS Offline
#228 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Location, location, location... so I'm changing locations. BigGrin
HockeyDad Offline
#229 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 43,503
We may have hit a kink…corporate relocation package coming for the wife.

Not mandatory….awaiting an offer we can’t refuse.
Sunoverbeach Online
#230 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 11,826
New construction with what you described around here is running $550-700k right now depending on the property size.
MACS Offline
#231 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Afternoon folks... just got a message from the realtor that showed my house at 4pm today.

"Thank you. They loved it. I will be sending an all-cash offer to your realtor in the morning."

Told my realtor and she texted me... "Boom!"

I texted back... "Let's hold the 'Boom' until we see if the offer is for asking price."
Ram27 Offline
#232 Posted:
Joined: 04-30-2005
Posts: 45,938
Good luck MAC.
Sunoverbeach Online
#233 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 11,826
Tentative congrats, Macs
MACS Offline
#234 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Sh*t got real, ya know? Whoever buys it is gonna want me to get out... and I got nowhere to go in FL yet! d'oh!

Puh... details. It'll work out, right?
HockeyDad Offline
#235 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 43,503
Prolly 30 days. All cash offers cut out all the red tape.
Stogie1020 Offline
#236 Posted:
Joined: 12-19-2019
Posts: 3,314
Amazing, congrats in advance!

I hear izon has room in the tent if you need a place to crash.

But seriously, many mazels.
MACS Offline
#237 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
I'm waiting to hear the offer before I have any feelings about it.
rfenst Offline
#238 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 36,825
MACS wrote:
I'm waiting to hear the offer before I have any feelings about it.

Exactly, it means zero until it's in writing and in your hands. No inspection?

Unless you can get a significant enough, non-refundable, good faith deposit, you may want to make sure to close within 10 days or less- with an all cash buyer- and then rent it back from the buyer through the end of the month- and then get out!

Hopefully they will meet or beat your asking price!
madspackler Offline
#239 Posted:
Joined: 03-07-2000
Posts: 3,573
MACS wrote:
Sh*t got real, ya know? Whoever buys it is gonna want me to get out... and I got nowhere to go in FL yet! d'oh!

Puh... details. It'll work out, right?




Here's hoping for the best for you MACS. You can make any details work out - Everything is negotiable. The rest is just details.

The only thing you really want to see is the old house in the rear-view mirror. Under the right conditions it can be great to be homeless. Think of it as a new adventure.
MACS Offline
#240 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Offer is for 12k more than asking. Gotta be vacated by July 1st. We have until tomorrow afternoon to accept or decline the offer.

Oooof.

Nothing to think about, right? Ain't a family... it's an investment company. You know, the one's buying up all the US real estate in cash and making it hard for families to actually afford a home?

Fuuuuuudge.
HockeyDad Offline
#241 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 43,503
MACS wrote:
Offer is for 12k more than asking. Gotta be vacated by July 1st. We have until tomorrow afternoon to accept or decline the offer.

Oooof.

Nothing to think about, right? Ain't a family... it's an investment company. You know, the one's buying up all the US real estate in cash and making it hard for families to actually afford a home?

Fuuuuuudge.



There is a ton of that going around. Oh boy.
ZRX1200 Offline
#242 Posted:
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 57,451
Yup. What they’ve done around here is buy multiple homes in the same area to increase that areas “desirability”…..shady AF
Sunoverbeach Online
#243 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 11,826
True, but $12k over asking could get you a nice spot to sit while you figure out your next abode. Plus, if you don't take it, the next guy might.
MACS Offline
#244 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Sunoverbeach wrote:
True, but $12k over asking could get you a nice spot to sit while you figure out your next abode. Plus, if you don't take it, the next guy might.


My sentiments, too. Seriously doubt anyone is going to offer more than that.

Ram27 Offline
#245 Posted:
Joined: 04-30-2005
Posts: 45,938
Bird in hand worth two in the bush!
deadeyedick Offline
#246 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 14,606
Sounds like motel California to me.
DrafterX Offline
#247 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 96,149
Take da 12k and buy an RV.. stay mobile for awhile... Mellow
MACS Offline
#248 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 75,480
Looks like a lot of places that Airbnb give monthly discounts.

May need that... Mellow
DrafterX Offline
#249 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 96,149
If you buy the RV you can drive both Florida coasts and figure out where you want to be.. and take as much time as you need.. and prolly make your money back on da RV.. if you get rid of it... Mellow
Stogie1020 Offline
#250 Posted:
Joined: 12-19-2019
Posts: 3,314
If their initial offer is 12K over asking, I wonder what their final offer would be?Can your realtor find other properties in the area that they have recently purchased to see how much on average they are paying "over asking"?
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