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Last post 5 years ago by deadeyedick. 210 replies replies.
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Dow at 25000 contest
deadeyedick Offline
#101 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
delta1 wrote:
My suspicion is: it is becoming more one floor up and two floors down...as more nations respond to Trump's imposition of tariffs, "fears" of a trade war will become a "trade war"...

Stinger's guess looks like a winner...23,210...

Globalization is a process that America's capitalists, our largest corporations, have been primary engines of, and to a large degree, the biggest beneficiaries. To try to reverse course in the name of nationalism seems to ignore our history since the end of WWII, and fly in the face of pure capitalism.

This could be "sour grapes" on my part...took a little bath over the past few days...


Then I assume you think totally one-sided tariffs are just fine? I believe our history since WWII has been to give much more than we get in trade and I think our balance of payments shows that clearly.
delta1 Offline
#102 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
Tariffs haven't affected us much...here's an article about tariffs world-wide. Adam Smith, the economist/author whose philosophies are venerated by American capitalists, advocated free trade. The US economy has exceeded all other world powers in GNP since WWII...

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040115/which-countries-have-highest-tariffs.asp
deadeyedick Offline
#103 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Back up to 25000 today. With reporting season coming up things could take off either way due the (perception) of a trade war but the earnings should mostly look very good.
shaun341 Offline
#104 Posted:
Joined: 08-02-2012
Posts: 8,826
The way this year is going I need it to gain more than 10% here for it to be at my number at the end of the year. Also would be nice to see a big bump!
shaun341 Offline
#105 Posted:
Joined: 08-02-2012
Posts: 8,826
delta1 wrote:
Tariffs haven't affected us much...here's an article about tariffs world-wide. Adam Smith, the economist/author whose philosophies are venerated by American capitalists, advocated free trade. The US economy has exceeded all other world powers in GNP since WWII...

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040115/which-countries-have-highest-tariffs.asp


Complete disclosure: I did not read the article you linked

I think that tariffs have affected us greatly in a country that was built on industry and now relies on other countries greatly to supply cheaper labor and materials. I feel tariffs should be equal, and maybe...just maybe we won't end up in a country where there are rich and poor only. Where Walmart won't be the only competitively priced discount store in the country and locals can build a business from the ground up without corporate America crushing their dreams.

Tariffs are not only important for us but also for all the countries that aren't powerhouses in the world. Tariffs can affect the price of an import greatly for the entire world.

Lets give incentive to industries to make their product domestically and create jobs for the people that struggle to make ends meet. Lets get back to our roots here because it was a better place when hard work meant something here.
delta1 Offline
#106 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
Disclaimer: I'm not an economist, don't bother to keep my check book balanced and barely understand my monthly equities report, but I do pay off my credit cards every month, pay all my bills on time, pay my taxes on time, keep healthy balances in my checking and savings accts and kinda watch my equities...


I have read a few simplified articles in business publications about tariffs. If the Trump tariffs work as intended, may be ok....but there is rarely a time in the past when tariffs didn't trigger a negative reaction from the countries upon which the tariffs were imposed. They usually retaliate, and in the current case, swiftly so.

Trade wars can, and did, break out. The worst example was the US imposition of tariffs on a wide variety of imported goods in 1930...it triggered the Great Depression. That's a worst case scenario, and we are nowhere near that.

It'll take some time, a year or so, before we will know whether the tariffs have a positive or negative effect for Americans. My guess is it will help some targeted industries but, overall most Americans will pay more for goods and products because our companies won't absorb the jump in the cost of doing business if they import stuff from countries who impose their own tariffs in response to our tariffs. They won't accept a lower or no profit, so they'll either cut wages, lay people off or raise their prices...
shaun341 Offline
#107 Posted:
Joined: 08-02-2012
Posts: 8,826
I agree that prices will probably go up because the corporations will not eat the rise in tariffs after they have established their brand. I would expect for the demand to change some as well as the price changes. We take a lot of things for granted, like having the latest Iphone that nobody can tell me how it is even different then the one they built 6 months ago but cost 10% more. We may have to pay a little more for needs instead of using more money than we should on wants, but if it were to create a ton of jobs that could boost the economy I would be all for it. It goes against just about everything they have been teaching me in business classes (which is mostly outsourcing and creating scales of economy to gain a competitive advantage) right now but I feel these books were written with agendas and are currently outdated even if they are from 2014. There is one thing that I am pretty certain of, and that is we cannot keep traveling the same path and expect there to be a blue collar and middle class in existence.
delta1 Offline
#108 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
I see where you'd like to go, and I agree. Said another way, our current economic process is resulting in extreme income inequalities, with the average Americans, the blue collar and middle class getting screwed. If tariffs targeting specific resources and products can help American workers in those sectors of the economy and can change the existing dynamic some, that would be a good thing if the consequences aren't too severe on the rest of us. I hope you're right.
shaun341 Offline
#109 Posted:
Joined: 08-02-2012
Posts: 8,826
I am not sure that I am right but I would like to see that we at least tried something along the way.
delta1 Offline
#110 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
the number is getting close to its peak in January...26,157 now...
deadeyedick Offline
#111 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Well, here we are in the home stretch boys and girls. As of the end of the 3rd qtr the DOW stood at 26458 up about 7.0% for the year so far. The S&P was up about 9.0%. The mid-term elections are coming up which could have some bearing on how it ends up. I'm thinking another 3% rise is a good possibility which would put it around 27500.

Here are the wild-ass guesses:

doeshin 19755
Stinger88 23210
oscar 23211
LetsRock 23456
drnos 24500
Frank1 25000
Gummy Jones 25207
JKilburn 26111
SmokeMonkey 26317
Opelmanta1900 26382
madspackler 26420
Danmdevries 26990
Jespear 27102
Ewok126 27250
ypetryna 27318
KingoftheCove 27455
Phil222 27500
Shaun341 28001
bgz 28001.50
buckwheat 28002
Palama 28340
abjd14 28375
Zitotczito 28700
Chazbo 28750
TMCTLT 29025
Firemanmike 29100
DBIII 29113
Bassman45 29410
Abrignac 29500
DED 30015 (does not count)
DrafterX 30015
Delta1 31109
corey sellers 31768
Schreiber 32980
Gumby130 34200
deadeyedick Offline
#112 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Up another 193 today.
grmcooper Offline
#113 Posted:
Joined: 10-10-2006
Posts: 20,430
26511
cashmoneydave Offline
#114 Posted:
Joined: 08-16-2018
Posts: 753
26350
deadeyedick Offline
#115 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
You jackalopes are a little late. Entries closed about 9 months ago.Speak to the hand
delta1 Offline
#116 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
25, 598.74 ...cripes....

...terrible day, topping off a bad 4-5 days...lost more than 8% of 11% ytd gains...
deadeyedick Offline
#117 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
October has a history of being a downer. "Jitters about interest rates"? WTF?
gummy jones Offline
#118 Posted:
Joined: 07-06-2015
Posts: 7,969
if this ended today then my guess would be pretty darn good
deadeyedick Offline
#119 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Iffn' a bullfrog had wings ......

Two months to go. If the mid-terms change congress things could get real ugly fast.
frankj1 Offline
#120 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
I'm in the race by predicting flat
deadeyedick Offline
#121 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Actually the Dow closed out 2017 at 24719.22
frankj1 Offline
#122 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
deadeyedick wrote:
Actually the Dow closed out 2017 at 24719.22

just out of curiosity, was that the start date for this?
deadeyedick Offline
#123 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
I started the contest Jan 4, and by then the Dow was already above 25000 IIRC. The only thing that matters however, is where it closes out 2018, since we are not using % change as the criteria.

delta1 Offline
#124 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
We're roughly back where we started on Jan. 4, 2018.
opelmanta1900 Offline
#125 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
thanks obama?
delta1 Offline
#126 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
Hillary?
deadeyedick Offline
#127 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
It goes up and it goes down. Starting December we are at 25538. Need a big finish.

doeshin 19755
Stinger88 23210
oscar 23211
LetsRock 23456
drnos 24500
Frank1 25000
Gummy Jones 25207
JKilburn 26111
SmokeMonkey 26317
Opelmanta1900 26382
madspackler 26420
Danmdevries 26990
Jespear 27102
Ewok126 27250
ypetryna 27318
KingoftheCove 27455
Phil222 27500
Shaun341 28001
bgz 28001.50
buckwheat 28002
Palama 28340
abjd14 28375
Zitotczito 28700
Chazbo 28750
TMCTLT 29025
Firemanmike 29100
DBIII 29113
Bassman45 29410
Abrignac 29500
DED 30015 (does not count)
DrafterX 30015
Delta1 31109
corey sellers 31768
Schreiber 32980
Gumby130 34200
frankj1 Offline
#128 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
if Trump and the Chinese guy get together on the 90 day trade war cease fire being talked about, there could be some upward action triggered...and maybe save some car manufacturing jobs!
delta1 Offline
#129 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
spike yesterday and the bigger plummet today was like the pimply faced dweeb having his first roll in the hay with the campus slut...or the effect of a big Chinese buffet...
deadeyedick Offline
#130 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Was thinking Smokemonkey or Opie were looking good but we are back to Frank?
frankj1 Offline
#131 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
what was the winning prize? Was it a $25 savings bond?
shaun341 Offline
#132 Posted:
Joined: 08-02-2012
Posts: 8,826
I think I would be happy if Frank won. Been a roller coaster ride this year and breaking even is better than losing. From what I have been reading, next year is a bad year to invest in the market. 2020 though is supposed to see another boom.
deadeyedick Offline
#133 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
frankj1 wrote:
what was the winning prize? Was it a $25 savings bond?


Uh, well it was supposed to be a box worth $200 but that savings bond sounds good right now.Think
frankj1 Offline
#134 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
deadeyedick wrote:
Uh, well it was supposed to be a box worth $200 but that savings bond sounds good right now.Think

the kind that takes 7 years to mature, right?
Like all those I got for my Bar Mitzvah?
deadeyedick Offline
#135 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Into drnos territory now. He is a numbers guy, so he just may have nailed this year. Still have a few weeks to rally.......... or go down even more.
delta1 Offline
#136 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
deadeyedick wrote:
Into drnos territory now. He is a numbers guy, so he just may have nailed this year. Still have a few weeks to rally.......... or go down even more.



Gonz Gonz
horse
delta1 Offline
#137 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
dammm if it didn't drop lower...

hope Oscar or stinger don't win this, or even Let's Rock...
Abrignac Offline
#138 Posted:
Joined: 02-24-2012
Posts: 17,217
I’m thinking I’m not going to be in the top 3.
deadeyedick Offline
#139 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
Need a Santa Clause rally Gonz
jespear Offline
#140 Posted:
Joined: 03-19-2004
Posts: 9,462
27102 ?
WTF was I thinking ? d'oh!
delta1 Offline
#141 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
my guess was 31109....prolly thinking with sugar plums and dollar signs dancing in my head...I'm a greedy bassard...
frankj1 Offline
#142 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
hard to believe I was an overbidder!

Thanks, Trump...
Ewok126 Offline
#143 Posted:
Joined: 06-25-2017
Posts: 4,356
jespear wrote:
27102 ?
WTF was I thinking ? d'oh!



Lmaoooo. I picked 27250. You are almost at the same lvl as us stroked out phuggers! You ain't been smelling toast or burning leaves when this contest started have you?jester
deadeyedick Offline
#144 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
LetsRock territory. Arrrgg!d'oh!
bassman45 Offline
#145 Posted:
Joined: 07-05-2009
Posts: 4,082
Both my pick and my 401k going down the drain this quarter😥
deadeyedick Offline
#146 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
In the words of Slick Willy....... I feel your pain.
frankj1 Offline
#147 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
first time evah I find myself saying "all I want for Christmas..."
delta1 Offline
#148 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
getting scary...doeshin's number now looks plausible...I'd be happy if stinger won the prize...


around July or August, this looked like a decent to good financial year...now, it's gonna be a miserable one...
stinger88 Offline
#149 Posted:
Joined: 05-29-2012
Posts: 6,574
If I win it means that ded won’t be able to afford the contest. 😳
deadeyedick Offline
#150 Posted:
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 16,961
DED might just declare bankruptcy and move to Mexico.Think
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