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Last post 5 years ago by Phil222. 46 replies replies.
Government Shutdown is an Act of Economic Self Harm
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rfenst Offline
#1 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 7:07 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,302
"Beer brewers are facing bottlenecks. Airline passengers are facing queues. Around 800,000 federal employees are not being paid. These are the casualties of America’s government shutdown, which began on December 21st and is now the longest on record. It shows few signs of ending; its costs are climbing.

Historically, such shutdowns seem barely to have budged the juggernaut that is the American economy. Economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea) estimated that the 16-day funding lapse in October 2013 lowered real gdp growth in that quarter by 0.3 percentage points. This time, as only around 40% of federal employees are affected, most estimates of the weekly impact are even smaller. Economists at Moody’s, a rating agency, reckon that for each week it continues, the dent to gdp growth will be 0.04 percentage points."

The Economist



The administration now calculates that the shutdown reduces quarterly economic growth by 0.13 percentage points for every week that it lasts — the cumulative effect of lost work from contractors and furloughed federal employees who are not getting paid and who are investing and spending less as a result. That means that the economy has already lost nearly half a percentage point of growth from the four-week shutdown. (Last year, economic growth for the first quarter totaled 2.2 percent.)

NYT
bs_kwaj Offline
#2 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 8:35 AM EST
Joined: 02-13-2006
Posts: 5,214

Freakin' commie socialist nazi facsist ner'do-well Trump hatin' freakin' new world order American hatin' dufus childish ignorant Democrats!!

Beer



DrafterX Offline
#3 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 8:37 AM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,548
Well, if Obama wants credit for the current economy I guess he's gotta own this too....

Thanks Obama... Not talking
cacman Offline
#4 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 8:56 AM EST
Joined: 07-03-2010
Posts: 12,216
Be sure to thank your local Democrat
dstieger Offline
#5 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 10:02 AM EST
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
Self harm? Or maybe lack of self help? Not same thing. Even if you accept everything in the NYT piece, the harm to Trump is debatable. Sure he'll claim credit for every bit of seemingly good economic news...and his base will applaud him....but I'm not certain that he'll be harmed by any dips short of a recession.
Speyside Offline
#6 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 10:28 AM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Interesting articles Robert. I wondered what the economic damage would be. Now I can place numbers to it.
deadeyedick Offline
#7 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 10:30 AM EST
Joined: 03-13-2003
Posts: 17,087
Meh. Once it's over the impact will be forgotten quickly and we will move on to the next disaster.
DrafterX Offline
#8 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 10:50 AM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,548
We at least boosted Puerto Rico's economy last weekend... Mellow
Mr. Jones Offline
#9 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 11:38 AM EST
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,421
No we DIIIIID-DENT..... ^^^^

IT WAS TOTALLY CAUSED BY "THE TONIGHT SHOW
W/ JIMMY FALLON " visiting the island and raising relief funds
During his Two Night Puerto Rico special shows....
DrafterX Offline
#10 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 11:42 AM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,548
I was referring to the 300 Democrats and families who went to lay around da beach and see Hamilton there... Mellow
Gene363 Offline
#11 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 12:42 PM EST
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,814
deadeyedick wrote:
Meh. Once it's over the impact will be forgotten quickly and we will move on to the next disaster.


True, and the Federal deficit will continue to grow.
delta1 Offline
#12 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 2:42 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,784
depends on how long the shutdown lasts...if it continues another month or two, it may have longer lasting consequences if it impacts the annual economic growth number significantly...analysts will be quick to point to it as one reason for the target numbers falling short, and since it has been tagged a Trump Shutdown, he'll take some blame...
DrafterX Offline
#13 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 3:05 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,548
But when we start planting steel slats along the border the economy will boom... In the steel and steel slats planting industries anyways... Mellow
frankj1 Offline
#14 Posted: Thu, Jan 17 2019, 5:31 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
DrafterX wrote:
But when we start planting steel slats along the border the economy will boom... In the steel and steel slats planting industries anyways... Mellow

good point
delta1 Offline
#15 Posted: Fri, Jan 18 2019, 4:08 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,784
DrafterX wrote:
But when we start planting steel slats along the border the economy will boom... In the steel and steel slats planting industries anyways... Mellow


I dunno...Trump has made Chinese steel much more expensive than it used to be...we get most of our steel from there...
frankj1 Offline
#16 Posted: Fri, Jan 18 2019, 4:38 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
delta1 wrote:
I dunno...Trump has made Chinese steel much more expensive than it used to be...we get most of our steel from there...




COST BE DAMNED...WE'RE NOT PAYING FOR IT!
delta1 Offline
#17 Posted: Fri, Jan 18 2019, 4:39 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,784
d'oh!


I forgot...lo siento...
moonman Offline
#18 Posted: Mon, Jan 21 2019, 10:31 AM EST
Joined: 11-21-2004
Posts: 3,978
d'oh!
rfenst Offline
#19 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 8:08 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,302
Trump wants like $5 or $6 billion.
Cost of the shutdown is estimated to be $7.1 billion. Not sure if this includes multiplier and trickle down effects.
Nevertheless, some people need to reconsider their positions...
victor809 Offline
#20 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 11:04 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
All that needs to happen is for McConnell to work with pelosi to find an agreement which gets sufficient congresspeople on board for an override.

It's time for McConnell to stop running interference for trump.
DrafterX Offline
#21 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 11:23 AM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,548
I mentioned the meeting to McConnell... It should be going down sometime today... If it's not settled today it's been decided it's the Dems fault... Mellow
ZRX1200 Offline
#22 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 11:27 AM EST
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,599
You can’t negotiate when one sides position is capitulation by the other side.
victor809 Offline
#23 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 11:56 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
You mean like "wall or nothing"?

I've said it before.
Trump is within his right (and expected) to not approve anything without a wall.
The Dems are within their right (and expected) to not vote for anything with a wall.

As both sides are correct in their actions, and performing as expected, we should continue the government shutdown. There is no compelling reason for either side to shift from their position.

Trump wanted this. He said he was going to own it. It's his.
Government was running before he decided to do this. He shifted the negotiation to add in his demand for a wall. That does not magically compel congresspeople to give it to him however. They are still supposed to do what their voters want. The dems voters don't want a wall. So we will sit here without a government.
dstieger Offline
#24 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 12:08 PM EST
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
That all supposes that neither side gets more incentive from the shutdown itself. Getting government funded may turn out to be more important to one side than a solid political win on the wall.
moonman Offline
#25 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 12:37 PM EST
Joined: 11-21-2004
Posts: 3,978
I feel smart every time I watch Jeopardy but this **** has me feeling like a moron. I can only say that it feels as though we the people are caught in the middle/ being financially punished for the government's inability to govern! WTF! Going to put my rubles under the mattress and try meditating. ram27bat
victor809 Offline
#26 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 1:00 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Honestly the function of this is the logical outcome of a country which has two polarized points of view.

You cannot ask representatives on either side to so something other than what their voters want (ie, wall on one side,no wall on the other side). It would literally be unamerican.

This stalemate is inevitable when we have a project like the wall.

It is unfortunate that trump chose to tie this stalemate to the government funding. But there is no other expected outcome.
frankj1 Offline
#27 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 1:12 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
polarized views are what they are.
But using a totally unrelated shutdown is a bad precedent to reward.

people working in areas that do not involve the wall should not be waiting for the wall issue to be resolved in order to get paid. Hostage taking is ugly, and we don't want it to become a common tool for any POTUS being denied.

The wall vs other forms of border security can be brutally negotiated without it involving any other departments.
victor809 Offline
#28 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 1:22 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Do we expect anything more from this president?

I mean... That's how he ran his businesses before being elected.
After the work is done, when the contractors are in the worst position possible, and need to be paid... You refuse to until you negotiate down to pennies on the dollar.

He is trying his same tactics here. Government needs to be funded, and he chooses this time to refuse to do anything until he gets his project which his voters want.

That's fine. But his mistake is he's not really negotiating with the people not getting paid any more. He's negotiating with other congresspeople who are beholden to other voters.

This will not go anywhere, and it shouldn't go anywhere. We deserve this.
frankj1 Offline
#29 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 1:37 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
The Lovely Caren deserves better
victor809 Offline
#30 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 1:48 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Sorry Frank...
None of us deserve better.
This isn't a sudden thing... This isn't something that's really only popped up in the past 2 years.
This insanity has been building over decades. Like a huge ship, it could have been slowly steered, if any of us were smart enough to see it. But we weren't. And now we haven't got enough time to change course.

The government, and the people who voted for it, will not change quickly. And it is going to keep heading in the direction it's been in, dictated by the people, for a long while.

When trump is gone, the same people who elected him will elect another. We will have another shutdown over something else ridiculous... The ship will not change direction.
frankj1 Offline
#31 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 2:08 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
you sure you aren't just overcome with despair about living in Misery?

kidding, Victor, as you know.
delta1 Offline
#32 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 2:20 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,784
Trump let Coulter and Limbaugh (other right wing pundits?) lead him into this corner...he was going to sign the CR until they called him out...he can't get out without their consent...so the govet. is actually being run by con extremist talking heads who urge their peeps to vote for con extremists...

just like lib pundits urge their peeps to vote, but with an eye for more moderation...so the balance of power seems to be leaning in the direction of the extreme right minority over the moderate left majority...
moonman Offline
#33 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 2:51 PM EST
Joined: 11-21-2004
Posts: 3,978
You botl sure sound like you know what you're talking about. Being the simpleton that I am it smells like BS to me. Going back to looking at Boobs. It's way more fun than this. The Shutdown is the fault of idjits like me I rectum!!!
victor809 Offline
#34 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 3:12 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
The shutdown is the fault of trump. He chose to link a very controversial item to government funding.

A reasonable person, who expects their counterparts of opposite political views to be treated how they themselves want to be treated by their elected representatives, cannot expect the wall to be resolved.

It is unreasonable for Dems to expect trump to suddenly not care about his wall, as stupid as we think it may be, it was requested by people who voted for him.

Similarly, it is unreasonable for reps to expect the Democrats to suddenly give in and vote for a wall. That would be going against their voters.

Choosing to link this intractable situation to the budget was Trump's decision and his decision only.

McConnell shoulders blame for not allowing any discussion in Congress for forcing a veto to override... But that even may not happen, as depending on the voters for individual congresspeople, they may also want a wall.

So... We come to this.
DrafterX Offline
#35 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 4:35 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,548
All Trump is asking is for funds for a project the Dems already approved.. unfortunately for him it was approved under Obama's reign.. Mellow
victor809 Offline
#36 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 5:10 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
That's not actually true.

But I can see how you'd love for it to be.
Phil222 Offline
#37 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 5:18 PM EST
Joined: 10-01-2017
Posts: 1,911
Trump is asking for Democratic leaders to deliver on maybe his biggest campaign promise in exchange for peanuts. Trump will get to talk about how his wall is gonna keep out the bad hombres in 2020, while Democratic challengers will have nothing but a short-term DACA fix to try and spin to voters.

Dems seem to have the upper-hand in this negotiation, and to deliver his wall for anything less than what they think will help them win in 2020, would be very stupid of them. It doesn't matter what they did or didn't support a few years ago. Political waters can change very rapidly. Like how Mexico was gonna pay for the wall not that long ago...
victor809 Offline
#38 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 5:21 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Sucks how Mexico shut down our government by not paying for the wall they totally promised to pay for...

;)
Phil222 Offline
#39 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 5:30 PM EST
Joined: 10-01-2017
Posts: 1,911
Agreed. Mexico is being completely unreasonable.
victor809 Offline
#40 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 5:47 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
We should probably invade them or something
Phil222 Offline
#41 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 6:03 PM EST
Joined: 10-01-2017
Posts: 1,911
It’s a regime full of bad hombres down there. Someone call Bolton. The battle plans for Mexico are probably on his desk.
RMAN4443 Offline
#42 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 6:05 PM EST
Joined: 09-29-2016
Posts: 7,683
Maybe we could drop a Wall on them?Think
victor809 Offline
#43 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 6:08 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Are we packing this wall with explosives?
Ewok126 Offline
#44 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 6:33 PM EST
Joined: 06-25-2017
Posts: 4,356
RMAN4443 wrote:
Maybe we could drop a Wall on them?Think


From Space!?
Ewok126 Offline
#45 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 6:43 PM EST
Joined: 06-25-2017
Posts: 4,356
I am thinking he will get some of his funds. He will just get it from the interest earned on the tax refunds that none of you will be receiving. For those that owe, I do not think they are extending that time line as they kept enough Federal employees to accept funds. Just not enough to pay out. lol jester

Let that sit in the bank earning interest for a few short months, wall paid for! Then we can all get back to reading his morning tweets while he is eating his ice cream.
Phil222 Offline
#46 Posted: Tue, Jan 22 2019, 9:09 PM EST
Joined: 10-01-2017
Posts: 1,911
Ewok126 wrote:
From Space!?

Exactly. This sounds like a job for our new Space Force.
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