victor809 wrote:I'll admit where I'm wrong. It will be worse than I initially expected. I think I was guessing 5k dead, no more than 10k.
It's looking like it will be worse than that. But I don't think it's gotten bad.
I suppose I should put a number on "bad". We have 333MM people. I'd define "bad" as maybe 300k dead, 3MM permanently damaged by lung scarring. About 0.1% of the population dead, 1% of the population scarred. At that level, there will still be people who don't know anyone who died of the virus.
We survived the Spanish flu of 1918 with 0.5% of the population dying, and almost no one talked about it in our lifetimes... until we got another pandemic.
So, what do you define as "bad"?
Well, to be honest, back in January, for some reason (ignorance and being out of the loop for many years), I had an inflated opinion of “our” abilities to address this, and I figured, unless chit really went sideways, we’d easily keep the death toll under 3,000, and squash the virus.
Then I started seeing the numbers, the etiology, anecdotal evidence of Chinese shenanigans..............that’s when I put up my first post Feb 11.
I guess I’d have to say the situation we’re in now is bad.
And if I have to play prognosticator, the situation we will be in by the end of April will be MUCH worse.....
UNLESS....
We as a nation just stay the fuq at home for the entire month of April.......
OR....
We catch a break via a decent therapy or the virus mutates into a less virulent structure.