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Last post 3 years ago by victor809. 232 replies replies.
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30 days ago....
USNGunner Offline
#151 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
MACS wrote:
Really... I've gotten e-mails from: HOA, Duluth Trading Co, Nationwide Financial, Round Table Pizza, CalPers, and Kaiser Permanente about "what we're doing" about the corona virus.

I'm sorry... but IDGAS.



Right? What in the actual **** is that about? Every business in the world feels the need to reassure us they're not doing anything to get it? Brick wall
delta1 Offline
#152 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
some peeps have different ideas about what are most important, and under stress reveal who they are by what they do...
opelmanta1900 Offline
#153 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
thinking about torching the local toilet paper production facility to drive up the cost of the stock I'm trying to resell...
izonfire Offline
#154 Posted:
Joined: 12-09-2013
Posts: 8,642
opelmanta1900 wrote:
thinking about torching the local toilet paper production facility to drive up the cost of the stock I'm trying to resell...

Very revealing...
RobertHively Offline
#155 Posted:
Joined: 01-14-2015
Posts: 1,761

Ok King,

Yesterday I bought over a hundred dollars worth of seeds for the garden I grow every year.

I waited for the spot price on silver to hit bottom, and it did today so I cleaned up there.

Then we went to Walmart and bought a ton of food. Only food. No toilet paper for us. We already have a ton from our Sams trip in January, and besides I could always wipe my ass with leaves.

In truth though, you kinda have to stock up every so often when you live out in the boondocks. Our Sams is over two hours away and in another state. Lol! Some people say they have to stock up because of Corona, I say because it's Friday.

Hope you all have a good weekend.

KingoftheCove Offline
#156 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,600
teedubbya wrote:
Saw some interesting data from China and Europe concerning the folks that don’t die. I want to wait until it’s validated but the path back for a large percentage that don’t die is brutal, for an even larger percentage underneath that it includes pneumonia and lung scarring. The bucket that are lucky and it’s just flu like is smaller than you think. This isn’t the flu. That rhetoric is dead.

This was a tidbit one of my former colleagues relayed to me some time ago, which I found disturbing, along with the fact that it’s being “down played” a bit too much. He didn’t use “large percentage”, but rather the term significant, as in 30ish percent, which is still scary as hell. I’m trying to get follow up data on this, but everyone is too fuqin busy trying to put out fires!
It’s fuqin weird really.
We have an incredibly fast worldwide information system (da internet, etc) and yet, it appears we simply can’t get reliable data in a timely fashion...............because of all the political BS.
Pizzes me off............... big time.
Speyside Offline
#157 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
King, TW, no one is listening. Those who are have already taken appropriate precautions. Then there are those who have completely panicked.
grmcooper Offline
#158 Posted:
Joined: 10-10-2006
Posts: 20,430
Get your koolaid here! Nice cold koolaid here!
DrafterX Offline
#159 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,508
Cooper..!! Laugh
teedubbya Offline
#160 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Surprised this one fell.
Speyside Offline
#161 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Well, now it's 41 days ago, what did you expect?
teedubbya Offline
#162 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
True true.

It’s scary how much this thing is following the predicted models. It’s almost like science unfortunately knew more than the politicians calling it the flu.
delta1 Offline
#163 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
wonder if the UK will pay a price for their initial plan to avoid social distancing and let everyone congregate as usual?

their plan was to "develop herd immunity" within their population...

then an expert ran some models and said they'd kill about 225K to 500K peeps as they succumb to the illness after they get the virus.....to acquire herd immunity...whoops...


so they're a few weeks behind...be interesting to see what their infection numbers are as they do their testing...

but eventually we'll naturally acquire it if enough peeps get the virus and survive, or a vaccine is produced and widely distributed and used
KingoftheCove Offline
#164 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,600
Eh..........................I will bump 60 days after my first...

But here’s a freebie in the mean time........and at least some of you already know this.

The Chinese government is lying...........and I mean............... lying on a scale that is going to be difficult to fully comprehend.
An accurate total of their real numbers no one will ever know, but we will get a fairly reliable estimate.
Less than 4,000 deaths????
Preposterous....

Hunkered down and praying those older therapies buy us time...
USNGunner Offline
#165 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
KingoftheCove wrote:
Eh..........................I will bump 60 days after my first...

But here’s a freebie in the mean time........and at least some of you already know this.

The Chinese government is lying...........and I mean............... lying on a scale that is going to be difficult to fully comprehend.
An accurate total of their real numbers no one will ever know, but we will get a fairly reliable estimate.
Less than 4,000 deaths????
Preposterous....

Hunkered down and praying those older therapies buy us time...


The Chicoms lying? Whaaaauuuuuutttttt!? Yeah, Iran as well. The mass graves are visible by satellite.

A friend of mine pointed me at Oregano oil. He's been using it when ever he gets a sore throat or thinks a cold is coming on and says it really really works for him.

It's supposed to help stimulate the immune system. There is also a study from a Holistic Medical site that was done in 2003 with SARS that looks like it stops the viral reproduction.

https://holisticprimarycare.net/topics/topics-h-n/infectious-disease/117-oregano-oil-proves-effective-against-coronavirus.html

Invulnerable? Nope. But the wife and I are taking it every morning. I figure why the hell not? Worst case I'm out $20 for the bottle of oil. I'm all for hedging my bets. Especially given where I work and being essential and all. Brick wall
teedubbya Offline
#166 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
The sad part is we used to be able to call out such countries for such things. It’s kind of hard to do so when your own level of disinformation rivals theirs. Credibility is a terrible thing to waste.

At least oregano oil won’t hurt you. Stay away from the silver swindlers are pushing.
victor809 Offline
#167 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
teedubbya wrote:
The sad part is we used to be able to call out such countries for such things. It’s kind of hard to do so when your own level of disinformation rivals theirs. Credibility is a terrible thing to waste.

At least oregano oil won’t hurt you. Stay away from the silver swindlers are pushing.


hehehe.... come on TW. If someone's gonna be dumb enough to try this crap you should encourage it.
DrafterX Offline
#168 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,508
I heard cow urine cures it... Mellow
victor809 Offline
#169 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:
Eh..........................I will bump 60 days after my first...

But here’s a freebie in the mean time........and at least some of you already know this.

The Chinese government is lying...........and I mean............... lying on a scale that is going to be difficult to fully comprehend.
An accurate total of their real numbers no one will ever know, but we will get a fairly reliable estimate.
Less than 4,000 deaths????
Preposterous....

Hunkered down and praying those older therapies buy us time...


Meh. Hasn't gotten terrible yet. The financial cost people will bear from trying to make sure this doesn't get too bad will be extraordinarily debilitating for some.

I'm also not sure we can say how much the Chinese govt is lying. Remember, with a top-down control they do have the ability to control the spread of this virus much more than we do. By end of Jan everyone had to stay home. A lot of people live in large apartment buildings with food and stores on the first level. They were required to stay in those buildings. For others each household was allowed to leave the house 1x a week to get food. And china has the ability to enforce a lot of that. There are cameras positioned frequently along every highway, designed to get the driver's and passenger's faces, cameras on a lot of local streets.

Basically, with the ability to lock your population down, I wouldn't be too surprised if that allowed them to bring the spread under control quickly after the mess at the beginning.

But we'll see. in the end information will get out
teedubbya Offline
#170 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
For the record I wasn’t dissin usn or oregano oil. Just silver.
USNGunner Offline
#171 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
teedubbya wrote:
For the record I wasn’t dissin usn or oregano oil. Just silver.


Didn't take it that way. That whole copper and silver thing is hinky I think as well. And I'm not a "holistic", "anit-vax", "Mother Earth" kind of guy.

But my buddy has been using the oregano oil for a long time and I can't remember the last time I saw him down with a cold or flu. I got looking into it, and there's enough anecdotal evidence to tip my "what the hell" switch. I'll hedge my bets. Why not.

I'm also using my pepper spray as a social distancing guideline. If you're in range? You're too close. Shame on you
victor809 Offline
#172 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:
I posted this:

Just gonna say this once, cause I care about a few of you azzhats.

You better start paying attention to what’s going on.
The situation is considerably worse than most of you think.
I’m not trying to get all Jonsey here, but I do have some knowledge and sources of info.
It’s not just the virus that’s going to cause problems because it will kill a certain percentage of people.
It’s the ancillary damage it will cause to the global economy, which has already started.

Start preparing.


For the most part, the response here, and some other places where I essentially said the same thing, was...
- nothing burger
- flu is worse
- media driven
- nothing I need to worry about
and so on.

Here we are, about where I'd thought we'd be.
It's going to get "interesting" in another 30 days.
But not to worry.........China has already rid itself of the virus and has no new cases!
Everything will be back to normal in a few short weeks, cause well heck, if China got rid of the virus, then we certainly can as well.

Carry on...


We at 60 days yet man?

This has been the longest 30 days ever....
KingoftheCove Offline
#173 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,600
victor809 wrote:
We at 60 days yet man?

This has been the longest 30 days ever....

9 or 10 more to go, but I ain’t posting the update.
At this point, no need.
The chit rolled right in about where I figured it would be...............more than 2 weeks EARLY!

Still praying for a miracle...............we need one.
USNGunner Offline
#174 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
^^^^^^

This.
victor809 Offline
#175 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:
9 or 10 more to go, but I ain’t posting the update.
At this point, no need.
The chit rolled right in about where I figured it would be...............more than 2 weeks EARLY!

Still praying for a miracle...............we need one.


You and I have much different definitions of bad.

I don't think this has gotten too terrible yet. Biggest issue has been our poor management of it (in both overreaction and underreaction... oddly)

I will say, this is way more contagious than I thought it was. AND I like the lung damage touch.... life long scarring is impressive.

But the extent of the disruption to our lives at home right now is we can't go out to dinner on the weekends.
Oh, and the woman's had to work like 16hr days because the data centers in India are shut down and her projects are getting screwed.
teedubbya Offline
#176 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
This is a rare example where it moved so fast you can see how wrong folks opinions were just a week or two ago let alone months ago. We can also see how closely they mirrored their preferred sources of information.

And I am not excluded from that. I have nonhodgekins lymphoma and recent open heart surgery (both caused by and creating immune issues) yet went to Baltimore the last week of February to mingle with about 3500 of wait for it............the nations best healthcare quality improvement folks, who work in health care settings across the country, several of which have recently been on stage with the Prez. What a great way to spread it.


Dumb. It was in Baltimore the last week of February I figured out what was heading towards us even though I’d been following it since the first of the year. Should have known better.
KingoftheCove Offline
#177 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,600
victor809 wrote:


I don't think this has gotten too terrible yet.

Yeah.........we have different definitions of bad.
Reminds me of what you said to my initial post on Feb 11.

In all seriousness, this isn't going to be that bad.


Think

It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.
But if things aren’t bad now? I guess getting worse isn’t that bad, right?
victor809 Offline
#178 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:
Yeah.........we have different definitions of bad.
Reminds me of what you said to my initial post on Feb 11.

In all seriousness, this isn't going to be that bad.


Think

It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.
But if things aren’t bad now? I guess getting worse isn’t that bad, right?


I'll admit where I'm wrong. It will be worse than I initially expected. I think I was guessing 5k dead, no more than 10k.
It's looking like it will be worse than that. But I don't think it's gotten bad.
I suppose I should put a number on "bad". We have 333MM people. I'd define "bad" as maybe 300k dead, 3MM permanently damaged by lung scarring. About 0.1% of the population dead, 1% of the population scarred. At that level, there will still be people who don't know anyone who died of the virus.

We survived the Spanish flu of 1918 with 0.5% of the population dying, and almost no one talked about it in our lifetimes... until we got another pandemic.

So, what do you define as "bad"?
teedubbya Offline
#179 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
We lost roughly 400,000 in ww2 over several years.
delta1 Offline
#180 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
if the latest projection from Trump is that if we can keep the total deaths at close to 100,000, we'll have done great, but a likelier number could be 240,000 deaths...

with a mortality rate at approx 1.5%, that means the experts are expecting 8 million to 15,000,000 Americans to get infected...

Those are REALLY bad numbers, and we're not even close yet...

if we're flattening the curve, it isn't flat yet...and when it does get flat how long will it stay flat before dropping? could be several more months...
tonygraz Offline
#181 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,175
I never met my paternal grandfather as he died in he "Spanish" flu, leaving my 13 year old father at the head of a large family.
USNGunner Offline
#182 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
tonygraz wrote:
I never met my paternal grandfather as he died in he "Spanish" flu, leaving my 13 year old father at the head of a large family.


Which actually started here and the army took with them to Europe. That is a really interesting while horrifying story worth reading about.
KingoftheCove Offline
#183 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,600
victor809 wrote:
I'll admit where I'm wrong. It will be worse than I initially expected. I think I was guessing 5k dead, no more than 10k.
It's looking like it will be worse than that. But I don't think it's gotten bad.
I suppose I should put a number on "bad". We have 333MM people. I'd define "bad" as maybe 300k dead, 3MM permanently damaged by lung scarring. About 0.1% of the population dead, 1% of the population scarred. At that level, there will still be people who don't know anyone who died of the virus.

We survived the Spanish flu of 1918 with 0.5% of the population dying, and almost no one talked about it in our lifetimes... until we got another pandemic.

So, what do you define as "bad"?

Well, to be honest, back in January, for some reason (ignorance and being out of the loop for many years), I had an inflated opinion of “our” abilities to address this, and I figured, unless chit really went sideways, we’d easily keep the death toll under 3,000, and squash the virus.

Then I started seeing the numbers, the etiology, anecdotal evidence of Chinese shenanigans..............that’s when I put up my first post Feb 11.

I guess I’d have to say the situation we’re in now is bad.
And if I have to play prognosticator, the situation we will be in by the end of April will be MUCH worse.....
UNLESS....
We as a nation just stay the fuq at home for the entire month of April.......
OR....
We catch a break via a decent therapy or the virus mutates into a less virulent structure.

victor809 Offline
#184 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:
Well, to be honest, back in January, for some reason (ignorance and being out of the loop for many years), I had an inflated opinion of “our” abilities to address this, and I figured, unless chit really went sideways, we’d easily keep the death toll under 3,000, and squash the virus.

Then I started seeing the numbers, the etiology, anecdotal evidence of Chinese shenanigans..............that’s when I put up my first post Feb 11.

I guess I’d have to say the situation we’re in now is bad.
And if I have to play prognosticator, the situation we will be in by the end of April will be MUCH worse.....
UNLESS....
We as a nation just stay the fuq at home for the entire month of April.......
OR....
We catch a break via a decent therapy or the virus mutates into a less virulent structure.



Definitely don't disagree that it will get significantly worse between now and end of April. I think we just have different definitions of "bad".

I think the "hording toilet paper and prepping in a bunker behind barbed wire" is a bit premature until we've lost at least a full single digit percentage point of our population. Our country has lost people without resorting to anarchy, we can do it again.

I was looking at some fun graphs showing a second "peak" that pops up after you clear the first one... essentially a re-infection peak about 1/4 of the height of the first.. so whenever we finally cross this peak (still hasn't happened) we'll have another to look forward to after we get through the first.

This virus is good at spreading. The high percentage of people who can be infected and asymptomatic allowed it to get all around the country before we did anything. Combine that with our shortage of test kits, which caused a "you can't get a test without showing symptoms" policy, which ensured we'd have a number of infected go completely undetected during the critical time for containment.

We failed at containment... utterly and completely.
We're now at the stage where we're watching the mortality catch up with the infection rate.... which is interesting in and of itself.
victor809 Offline
#185 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
On the up-side there's some porn star who says she'll sex up whoever discovers the cure....

Kinda wish I'd stuck with biochem now.
frankj1 Offline
#186 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,211
victor809 wrote:
On the up-side there's some porn star who says she'll sex up whoever discovers the cure....

Kinda wish I'd stuck with biochem now.

so that's why Trump was touting those drugs!
victor809 Offline
#187 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
frankj1 wrote:
so that's why Trump was touting those drugs!


I hear pudding's trying to take credit for them too. He's determined to get a piece of that porn star ass.
opelmanta1900 Offline
#188 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
victor809 wrote:


I think the "hording toilet paper and prepping in a bunker behind barbed wire" is a bit premature until we've lost at least a full single digit percentage point of our population.

Tin foil underwear is a go though, right?
victor809 Offline
#189 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
opelmanta1900 wrote:
Tin foil underwear is a go though, right?


tin foil underwear was a go before the first coronavirus patients sniffled.
KingoftheCove Offline
#190 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,600
Not bad until we’ve “lost at least a full single digit percentage point of the population”...........??
Hmmm......losing 1% would mean 3.5 million dead.....

Yeah, we definitely have a different opinion of bad.
teedubbya Offline
#191 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
The death rate data lags but will catch up
victor809 Offline
#192 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:
Not bad until we’ve “lost at least a full single digit percentage point of the population”...........??
Hmmm......losing 1% would mean 3.5 million dead.....

Yeah, we definitely have a different opinion of bad.


My "bad" is 0.1% dead.
My "hoard toilet paper and put up barb wire bad" is 1% dead.

(as with everything, one should moderate the response)

I was just surprised to see half the country jump to "hoard toilet paper etc..." already
delta1 Offline
#193 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
don't think we'll see your "bad" victor...the mortality rate of this virus is too low...
CelticBomber Offline
#194 Posted:
Joined: 05-03-2012
Posts: 6,786
USNGunner wrote:
The Chicoms lying? Whaaaauuuuuutttttt!? Yeah, Iran as well. The mass graves are visible by satellite.

A friend of mine pointed me at Oregano oil. He's been using it when ever he gets a sore throat or thinks a cold is coming on and says it really really works for him.

It's supposed to help stimulate the immune system. There is also a study from a Holistic Medical site that was done in 2003 with SARS that looks like it stops the viral reproduction.

https://holisticprimarycare.net/topics/topics-h-n/infectious-disease/117-oregano-oil-proves-effective-against-coronavirus.html

Invulnerable? Nope. But the wife and I are taking it every morning. I figure why the hell not? Worst case I'm out $20 for the bottle of oil. I'm all for hedging my bets. Especially given where I work and being essential and all. Brick wall



So, when the food runs out I know what I'm doing. I have your address and I know you're already seasoned!
CelticBomber Offline
#195 Posted:
Joined: 05-03-2012
Posts: 6,786
I saw an international news report that is claiming China is already experiencing a Second Wave of infections. It's gotta be really bad over there and we'll never know just how bad....
USNGunner Offline
#196 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
CelticBomber wrote:
So, when the food runs out I know what I'm doing. I have your address and I know you're already seasoned!


And half pickled with all the bourbon I'll be drinking. :D
CelticBomber Offline
#197 Posted:
Joined: 05-03-2012
Posts: 6,786
USNGunner wrote:
And half pickled with all the bourbon I'll be drinking. :D



I do love a good marinade!
victor809 Offline
#198 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
victor809 wrote:
I'll admit where I'm wrong. It will be worse than I initially expected. I think I was guessing 5k dead, no more than 10k.
It's looking like it will be worse than that. But I don't think it's gotten bad.
I suppose I should put a number on "bad". We have 333MM people. I'd define "bad" as maybe 300k dead, 3MM permanently damaged by lung scarring. About 0.1% of the population dead, 1% of the population scarred. At that level, there will still be people who don't know anyone who died of the virus.

We survived the Spanish flu of 1918 with 0.5% of the population dying, and almost no one talked about it in our lifetimes... until we got another pandemic.

So, what do you define as "bad"?


So... I'll admit where I'm wrong.
I think Kingofthecove was right here.

Right now... after social distancing and whatnot for a month or so, we're at essentially 1MM cases and 50k+ dead (probably a good number more).

If we had no social distancing, I have no doubt we could have easily topped 150k dead at this point (easily... and I suspect much higher). And we aren't on the downward slope at this point. We would be even further from the downward slope without the measures we took.

I think if we didn't do anything, this would have been a bad pandemic, by my standards... KotC was right when he was calling this one like 60 days ago or whenever
delta1 Offline
#199 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,754
the social distancing measures are just extending the number of deaths over a longer period of time...we'll continue to see a steady number of fatalities over the next month or so, as the virus completes its spread over the country...take a look at the John Hopkins University virus site and look at the graphs/maps of the spread over time...few red zones at the start...most of the country in red now...

with the clamor to re-open and doing so without proper safety precautions we'll see an uptick, but the majority of people are afraid, especially older folks with health conditions and parents with kids, so most of them will stay in lock-down mode
teedubbya Offline
#200 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
It is all about managing the workloads trying not to overwhelm local health care systems and hopefully improving outcomes. That's what's funny about the automobile accident screaming chimps. Try having them all at once let alone having the idiot drivers drive in to masses of people that are not in cars.

In the end I still don't know the end game. it seems to me like most people need to get sick at some point. the vaccine would be one good end point but we are acting like it is a certainty. we don't know for sure how long it will take, its efficacy or even if our own antibodies provide immunity. Combine that with once the vaccine is developed how is it mass produced and distributed (hopefully better than the tests?)

I'm not smart enough to see a good way out. I think the path that has been laid out is about as good as it gets and the states or localities not following it are playing with fire.... especially since their economy isn't in a vacuum and relies on others.

This thing is going to eff things up for a long time. The immediate gratification crowd is going to be disappointed.
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