America's #1 Online Cigar Auction
first, best, biggest!

And too be clear I am kidding.

We can survive another 4 years of him and once he’s gone the cult of trump will be seen for what it was and the pendulum will swing. It always does.

You're really an optimist aren't you tw....

Who's 500% matching those donations anyway?

Honestly a little surprised that a statement like that can't be audited for fraud.

But then again why start now....

I'm not contributing if he signed it for you!

yah! I think DeVoss let him keep all the tuition monies too.
TOGA! TOGA! TOGA!

Naw, he's West Coast now.

I believe he was on the invitation list to Chinatown with Sen. Pelosi back in February. Guess that beats Hardees and Ruth's Ozark Crawfish Boil and Bait shop!

Settle down Z, he wasn't talking about Bader Ginsberg.

Damn, thanks for the three way idea!!!

I don't think he was thinking of Ruth's Chris.

How is it that only YOU get those exclusive offers TW?
Color me jealous...

They figured out the exact moment I became team trump.

I had his forwarded to Putin

hoping you're wrong.
fearing you're right.

+2

Wait a minute....

What is this hoping you’re wrong fearing you’re right crap?!

We’ve got a bunch of states that have been opening for more than two weeks and I think a couple even at three weeks. Stick to you’re guns.....they’re all gonna die! Don’t go all wish washy now in case you need to backslide out of your bet.

From my brother (the ultra-orthodox Jewish pediatrician):

5/21/20 Why We Still Need Social Distancing Now


B’chasdei Hashem, the situation in Lakewood is much better now than it has been at any time since the COVID-19 Pandemic began. New cases of COVID-19 infection in our Kehilla have, B’H, dropped drastically — to the point that it may seem like the illness is out of our Kehilla.
This has many people asking a similar question:

“If the virus is not in Lakewood anymore, why do we need to continue
these drastic restrictions? Why can’t things go back to normal, to the way it
was before COVID-19? How long are we supposed to be locked down like this?!”

In fact, the COVID-19 virus and illness is not prevalent right now in Lakewood. Everyone can see that our Tefillos and Hishtadlus had a great impact. However, even though we do not see the illness amongst us now, it is definitely not entirely gone. The COVID-19 virus still poses a great danger for our Kehilla were it to flare up — even briefly.
While there are specific ways that we can responsibly loosen some of the restrictions on ourselves, it is important to understand what is happening now, what could happen, and what we expect to come.

Our responsible actions as individuals now — while still very difficult for us —
may likely mean the difference between life and, Chas V’Sholom, death
for vulnerable members of our Kehilla.

Here are two key points:
The first point that is important for our Kehilla to know:

It is established throughout history
that pandemic outbreaks of illness come in waves.

After the first wave of a pandemic illness a “lull” comes. During the lull, the illness recedes from the community, like a tide of water that pulls back from the land after a tidal wave crashes in, and the illness seemingly disappears. However, following the lull a second pandemic wave comes, sweeping through the population once again. While the second wave of illness is usually not as large as the first wave of illness, its destructive powers are nevertheless the same.
We have just lived through the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 illness. We witnessed before our eyes the awesome, devastating, destructive power of the COVID-19 virus. B’Chasdei HaShem, now, at this very moment, we are right in the middle of the lull — and it feels like ...finally, finally, finally... THE VIRUS IS GONE!!!
However, we must realize that the risk of a future second wave is a real and present dangerous risk to our Kehilla.
The second point that it is important for our Kehilla to know:

Although COVID-19 illness is almost gone in Lakewood at this moment,
the COVID-19 virus is still actively infecting people
throughout New Jersey and New York.

In our pediatric practice alone, we have 100-200 entire families who had no symptoms of illness during this whole period! Lakewood may has perhaps thousands of entire families who are not immune to the COVID-19 virus and who are vulnerable to infection. In addition, the vast majority of the elderly and other high-risk individuals properly quarantined themselves early on, and did not get infected during this Pandemic. They are all still not immune to the virus and are vulnerable to infection.
At the same time, there are hundreds of newly active cases of COVID-19 illness in the towns around us. Should we let our guard down and push the restrictions aside, a single contagious individual could re-introduce the virus back into our community. Lo Aleinu, a spark could be lit that would wreak havoc again.
Our Kehilla is not automatically safe now. We are at risk even now — even before a second wave. It is our responsibility to recognize this risk and to act individually in a way that protects those in our Kehilla who are still susceptible to COVID-19 infection and its potential extreme dangers.

This is why SOCIAL DISTANCING and MASKS
are still so important now.

Yes, this is difficult, and we don’t necessarily see what it accomplishes. But right now, going into the future, Social Distancing and masks are our main lines of defense, for ourselves, our loved ones and our community.
The fact that we are not seeing new cases in Lakewood now means that we have had great Siyata D’Shmaya, and we must be encouraged by this. At the same time,

Our Kehilla is still at great risk.

The only way that our lives will be able to return to the pre-COVID-19 normal days that we knew is when a vaccine is developed that can help create a high enough level of immunity throughout our entire community to protect everyone.

---

In upcoming emails, we hope to, B’ezras HaShem, address many questions people have, including:

If the current situation is safer than before, how does it change the measures we are taking to prevent the virus from coming back? How will it make things easier for us?

What about the people who already had the illness?

What about the entire families and our elderly and high-risk loved ones who did not have the illness?

What about going away for Shavuos? Should we? Is it safe?

How can antibody testing help us?

What about camp and summer activities?

Children playing together?

Learning and davening in Shul?

As well as more information about the rare new pediatric condition affecting children.

Please stay tuned.

My post that has been sitting here was meant for another thread. Had not read rfensts post. its a good read.

5/24/20 How We Can Protect Ourselves and Our Kehilla;
Shavuos Planning

THIS EMAIL IS INTENDED FOR FAMILIES OF KINDER PEDIATRICS OR
OTHER FAMILIES WHO SEEK THE GUIDANCE OF KINDER PEDIATRICS....

Please note that the COVID-19 information contained in this email
is up-to-date as of today and is subject to change in the future.

---

In the previous email we described two types of risks that our Kehilla faces regarding the COVID-19 virus: We discussed a current risk that the potentially life-threatening COVID-19 virus can infect people at any time because the virus is still active in towns and regions all around us. We also discussed a
fall/winter time risk of a second Pandemic wave of the illness, which would have the repeat potential to be exceptionally dangerous.

In this email we would like to discuss the different RISK GROUPS within
our Kehilla, addressing who among us is most at risk of and least at risk of
COVID-19 infection, both currently as well as during the fall/winter period. We would like to discuss the key forms of Hishtadlus those of us who are most at risk of COVID-19 infection can do to protect ourselves, as well as how those among us who are least at risk can help reduce the overall risk to the Kehilla.

Although this email will discuss the risk issues related to Shavuos travel,
the entire discussion is relevant to every single family, regardless of
Shavuos plans.

---

Shavuos is coming!

With Shavuos approaching at the end of the week our office has received many questions regarding YomTov travel:


Can we go away for YomTov? Is it safe? Would you recommend it?


Compared to Pesach time, the COVID-19 situation in Lakewood is,
Baruch Hashem, vastly better. Nevertheless, Shavuos travel presents its own set of risks and challenges for us. As we have described in past emails, the COVID-19 virus has not disappeared from around us, nor from around the communities of our loved ones, and our Kehilla continues to be at real risk.

We still have a lot to learn about the COVID-19 virus, however we have a good understanding of infectious disease outbreaks in general. For example, and at the risk of sounding overly simplistic, we know that during infectious disease outbreaks, only people who are not immune get infected, not people who are immune.

An infectious disease does not target or infect immune people.
The disease targets and infects only people who are not immune.


In our Kehilla we now have two subsets of people that form two entirely different RISK GROUPS: People who are immune to COVID-19 and
people who are not immune to COVID-19.


THE FIRST RISK GROUP: People who are Immune to COVID-19 Illness

Our Kehilla has, Baruch Hashem, many, many people who had and recovered from COVID-19 illness, whose bodies generated antibodies against the virus. A person who had clear COVID-19 symptoms AND who tested positive for antibodies is presumed to be immune to the COVID-19 virus right now.

While we are davening that COVID-19 immunity will last a lifetime, it is well established that many illnesses, including certain coronaviruses, generate only a temporary (ie., 2-3 month) immunity or only a season-long immunity. Lifelong immunity is not the only form of immunity to a disease.


At this time, the length of time COVID-19 immunity will last is not known. It could be short-term immunity or it could be life-long immunity.


However, we can presume that COVID-19 antibodies that develop in a person who had COVID-19 symptoms will provide at least short-term immunity. We can assume that the person is immune and is safe from getting infected again, as well as from spreading the infection to others. For now.


IF YOU HAVE PRESUMED IMMUNITY TO COVID-19 VIRUS:
Recognize that you have a responsibility to others who are not immune,
and your supportive actions in public help them feel comfortable
doing what they need to do to be safe.

WHEN YOU COME TOGETHER WITH OTHERS:
Wear a Mask and Social Distance.



THE SECOND RISK GROUP: People who are Not Immune to COVID-19 Illness

Our Kehilla has, Baruch Hashem, many people, and entire families, who did not have any symptoms of illness during the entire Pandemic period. A person who did not have symptoms of illness during the Pandemic period OR who had symptoms but did not test positive for antibodies is presumed to not be immune to the COVID-19 virus.

Two Subsets: People who Carefully Protect Themselves and
People who Do Not Carefully Protect Themselves

We mentioned above that when an infectious disease outbreak occurs it targets only those people who are not immune to the disease.

The situation regarding the risk of COVID-19 infection for a non-immune person is different than other disease outbreaks (ie, measles, mumps, or whooping cough) when the non-immune person has no way to protect himself from the infection.

However, during a COVID-19 outbreak:


Masks, Social Distancing, and Hand Washing
are extremely effective ways to help a person who is not immune
protect him/herself fully from getting infected.


We now have two subsets of people
who are not immune to the COVID-19 virus:

People Who Protect Themselves Against the Virus
and
People Who Do Not Protect Themselves Against the Virus.



It is important to understand that in the event that the COVID-19 illness will return during the spring or summer, or as a Pandemic wave in the fall or winter, we can expect that, al pi teva, virtually all of the people infected with COVID-19 will be from the subset of non-immune people who do not protect themselves against the virus.

Therefore, if you have not had symptoms of illness during the Pandemic period, or even if you had symptoms but did not test positive for antibodies, please know that Masks, Social Distancing, and Hand Washing are extremely effective ways to help you protect yourself fully from getting infected.


IF YOU DO NOT HAVE IMMUNITY TO COVID-19 VIRUS:

WHEN YOU COME TOGETHER WITH OTHERS — Wear a Mask and Social Distance.

When you enter any building — Wear a Mask and Social Distance.

When you go to work — Wear a Mask and Social Distance.

When you go shopping — Wear a Mask and Social Distance

When you go to Shul — Wear a Mask and Social Distance.

And Hand Washing is always important.


THIS HISHTADLUS WILL, B'ezras Hashem,
GIVE YOU, AS A NON-IMMUNE PERSON,
THE SAME SECURITY AS SOMEONE WHO IS IMMUNE.

---

Q: I WOULD LIKE TO GO TO MY PARENTS HOUSE FOR SHAVUOS OR HAVE THEM COME TO ME. IS IT SAFE?

A: If both you and your parents (and any other adult in you or your parent's home) are in the first Risk Group of people who have presumed immunity, then it would be safe, for now, for you to move your place of quarantine to your parent's house for Shavuos, or their place of quarantine to your house.

A: If either you or your parents are in the second Risk Group of those who do not have immunity to the COVID-19 virus, it is not advisable to either of you to leave their your home unless you are protecting yourselves fully at all times. This would make a YomTov or Shabbos visit very difficult at this time. If your parents live in Lakewood you can visit them safely outdoors on YomTov.


As we prepare for Shavuos, let us not forget to continue to Daven that Hashem spare us from any further outbreaks or waves of illness. At the same time, let’s do our required Hishtadlus and act responsibly to prevent them.

I agree.

[u]He is supposed to call me back today to explain his thoughts as I noticed the saw the same issue. We'll see...


UPDATE
He says they are four to five weeks ahead of the rest of the country in their opening up following IH/CDC guidelines. Their infection rate was around 50%. It hit hard and very early. His practice and the reports from other large practices that see people in his community are not seeing very much re-infection of people who were presumed to have had the disease. He is 90% sure of his medical opinion based on this, but only for his community. He said people are still in masks and practicing social distancing. His advice for me is what he is doing. He did not get sick and has been tested for anti-bodies, which he did not have. He is advising me to plan to wear a masks for the next two years or so until there is a vaccine (and possibly proven herd immunity). He believes any mask not only protects others, but to a certain extent also helps provide some protection to the wearer. Apparently, he has spoken to Faucci when he came to study this group of orthodox jews in Lakewood, New Jersey. I, personally, will be following my brother's advice because he also has a Masters Degree in Microbiology and totally gets this stuff from that perspective as well This is about all I understood. There was a hell of alot more that I missed. YMMV.

I'm not good wif words.

So true. Sighhhhh.

understandable

Jesus Christ that’s a lot to learn! Oh wait...