I'm going to stick my neck out and say something about manufacturing that I've been thinking about for a long time.
At the beginning of the 20th century local economies thrived. By local I mean that almost every small town had a functioning micro economy. A bank, grocery, livery or gas station, hardware store, funeral parlor, doctor, dentist, lawyer, barber, etc. People had to do business locally because transportation cost a fortune and took forever.
By the end of the 20th century the local and even regional economies were dead. Why? Transportation technology.
Lets use CigarBid as our example. I, for one, have not been in a cigar store in about 6 months because I have been ordering my supplies from right here. Why? Because its cheaper. Even the shipping is cheaper than what I would spend in fuel and time to drive to a local tobaccanist and walk the aisles.
If I apply the same time and money factors to the rest of my life, and millions of other Americans do the same thing as I do, you get the death of local and regional economies.
The next step is the death of national manufacturing ecnomies. Why? Transporation technology. When I'm in the grocery store I don't care if the asparagus came from Michigan or Mexico just so there's some on the shelf and the price is okay. The grocer, however, does care. If Mexican asparagus is cheaper and the supply is just as reliable then the grocer will order from Mexican farmers. The same thing is true of manufacturing. The DVD player is the same whether it comes from Beijing or Boston.
The death of U.S. manufacturing is not necessarily a bad thing, either. Sure, millions of workers will be displaced, but many of them could take early retirement and live comfortably working part-time jobs in the service sector. I know, I know, some of you are already steaming that "service sector" means Wal-Mart greeter or fast food, but that's not true. The business I co-own is in the "service sector." CigarBid is in the "service sector."
Sure, the next generation will need to look to another way of life just like the manufacturing generation was doing when it left the farm.
Fewer manufacturing jobs means that the average worker will face far less chance of injury or death on the job and will be able to retire healthier and enjoy retirement more than the average factory worker does today.
Fewer manufacturing jobs means a cleaner environment in the U.S. Less smokestack industry here means that cities will be cleaner than ever before, reducing the overall cost of healthcare for everybody here.
A final example and I'll stop. Fifteen or 20 years ago the military was keen on closing or downsizing many bases. Local communities were horrified and lobbied Congress to stop the process. Fifteen or 20 years later many of those once fearful local officials will tell you that losing the military base was the best thing that ever happend in their community because their local ecnonomy became more diversified and more healthy as a result.
Think of this as the end of the industrial revolution and the beginning of the service revolution.