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Last post 12 years ago by rfenst. 18 replies replies.
the unfree mkt
Stinkdyr Offline
#1 Posted:
Joined: 06-16-2009
Posts: 9,948
>>The Federal Reserve sent ideas to U.S. lawmakers about how to help the troubled housing market, warning that home prices will continue to fall if no action is taken. Meanwhile, minutes from a Fed meeting show that officials are disappointed in efforts to bolster the housing market. Fed officials "generally saw few signs of recovery in the housing market, with house prices continuing to decline in most areas and the overhang of foreclosed and distressed properties still substantial," according to the minutes.>>

You know, America was once a land where free markets were allowed to be free. Its citizens too.


fog
DrMaddVibe Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,498
We need another TARP or buyout package...maybe some stimulus and shovel ready J-O-B-S too...a little side of "green" jobs and what do you say to increasing the government size with more bloated agencies?

Still not enough?


Well, we can always start ANOTHER war to pay for it all!

Applause
borndead1 Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 11-07-2006
Posts: 5,216
Ummm....housing prices SHOULD be falling! They were artificially high for years!
wheelrite Offline
#4 Posted:
Joined: 11-01-2006
Posts: 50,119
borndead1 wrote:
Ummm....housing prices SHOULD be falling! They were artificially high for years!


Eureka we agree !!!!Herfing
borndead1 Offline
#5 Posted:
Joined: 11-07-2006
Posts: 5,216
wheelrite wrote:
Eureka we agree !!!!Herfing



My ex wife's mom bought a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house with a 1 bedroom guest house (on top of the garage) and a small inground pool in La Crescenta, CA back in 2001. She paid $314K for it. In 2006 her house was appraised at almost $600,000. WTF!!!!!!!! DOUBLED in value in 5 years????? Housing prices are a joke.
wheelrite Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 11-01-2006
Posts: 50,119
borndead1 wrote:
My ex wife's mom bought a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom house with a 1 bedroom guest house (on top of the garage) and a small inground pool in La Crescenta, CA back in 2001. She paid $314K for it. In 2006 her house was appraised at almost $600,000. WTF!!!!!!!! DOUBLED in value in 5 years????? Housing prices are a joke.


agreed...
rfenst Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,349
wheelrite wrote:
agreed...



Holy sh1t! I agree with both of you.
Supply and demand at work (with a dose of subsidy thrown in for good measure...).
frankj1 Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
borndead1 wrote:
Ummm....housing prices SHOULD be falling! They were artificially high for years!

absolutely. this is a market correction. my home was purchased to be my home, no one assured me it would also fund my retirement
rfenst Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,349
frankj1 wrote:
absolutely. this is a market correction. my home was purchased to be my home, no one assured me it would also fund my retirement


Mine will, if only because it will be paid off in full. Next time there is hyperinflation in housing (e.g. 5-10 years from now) I amgoing to sell high and then rent until prices crash- like I wish i had this time around. My house is down 60% from its peak...
pgje51 Offline
#10 Posted:
Joined: 01-13-2006
Posts: 5,013
I was reading a local realtor rag and the data they spewed indicated that there would be another 5-6 miliion units in default over the next 4-5 years
which could take 8-10 years to absorb at current sales levels.

My home value is down 53% from it's peak and estimated at $10K below what I bought it for in 2002. I was hoping to down size in the next 3-4 years
in prep for retirement. I'm not optimistic about the timing of my plan anymore.
engletl Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 12-26-2000
Posts: 26,493
Thankfully I bought cheap and haven't seen any major depreciation in my homes value
DrafterX Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,559
I was able to buy my home also about 3 years ago... have to insure it for over twice what I paid for it... ThumpUp
frankj1 Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
rfenst wrote:
Mine will, if only because it will be paid off in full. Next time there is hyperinflation in housing (e.g. 5-10 years from now) I amgoing to sell high and then rent until prices crash- like I wish i had this time around. My house is down 60% from its peak...

well, it will help fund my retirement if I sell after paying off the mtg in a way...instead of rent that would have vaporized it will be like I have been making monthly payments to the bank that I will be getting back when I sell. If the house goes up in value it will enhance my lifestyle in retirement. If not, then I got to live where I liked with a big rebate at the end. Maybe made no interest, but interest paid out was deductible and the principle comes back if the market is flat. But there was no promise of it being an investment that must turn a profit, just a home. Currently my house is worth more than I paid 11 years ago but I bought low at the time for what I have.

We must realize that part of the "market correction" is that we are finishing a cycle in which jobs and income were lost...purchases (especially huge ones like homes) slowed down... less product demand then caused more layoffs...

though not everyone will be happy, that cycle is reversing ever so slowly now. there has been hiring for a while and lots of newly lost jobs are actually government(s) related which people were demanding. But it is unlikely that the economy trend will bring back the housing cost frenzy that was artificial in the first place. Rising with the economy maybe, but rising insanely is doubtful...I hope.

Now if only colleges and health insurance could stay within the parameters of the normal marketplace...
rfenst Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,349
frankj1 wrote:
well, it will help fund my retirement if I sell after paying off the mtg in a way...instead of rent that would have vaporized it will be like I have been making monthly payments to the bank that I will be getting back when I sell. If the house goes up in value it will enhance my lifestyle in retirement. If not, then I got to live where I liked with a big rebate at the end. Maybe made no interest, but interest paid out was deductible and the principle comes back if the market is flat. But there was no promise of it being an investment that must turn a profit, just a home. Currently my house is worth more than I paid 11 years ago but I bought low at the time for what I have.

We must realize that part of the "market correction" is that we are finishing a cycle in which jobs and income were lost...purchases (especially huge ones like homes) slowed down... less product demand then caused more layoffs...

though not everyone will be happy, that cycle is reversing ever so slowly now. there has been hiring for a while and lots of newly lost jobs are actually government(s) related which people were demanding. But it is unlikely that the economy trend will bring back the housing cost frenzy that was artificial in the first place. Rising with the economy maybe, but rising insanely is doubtful...I hope.

Now if only colleges and health insurance could stay within the parameters of the normal marketplace...



There has never been a promise that homes would appreciate and that they represent a "hidden" investment, but they have historically appreciated about 3-4%. When they appreciate faster than general inflation, homeowners could be making money- so to speak- leaving out the complications of interest and leverage for the sake of discussion.

Right now,however, it is less expensive to rent than it is to own a home here in Orlando. So, lots of people have stopped making their mortgage payments. Apartment occupancy rates are at all time highs, but so too are the number of homes with loans in default, that have never been occupied (overbuilding) and/or are vacant due to foreclosure. The only thing that will clean up the glut will be dilapidation due to long-term vacancy and real population increase over time. At least that's the way I see it.
frankj1 Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
rfenst wrote:
There has never been a promise that homes would appreciate and that they represent a "hidden" investment, but they have historically appreciated about 3-4%. When they appreciate faster than general inflation, homeowners could be making money- so to speak- leaving out the complications of interest and leverage for the sake of discussion.

Right now,however, it is less expensive to rent than it is to own a home here in Orlando. So, lots of people have stopped making their mortgage payments. Apartment occupancy rates are at all time highs, but so too are the number of homes with loans in default, that have never been occupied (overbuilding) and/or are vacant due to foreclosure. The only thing that will clean up the glut will be dilapidation due to long-term vacancy and real population increase over time. At least that's the way I see it.

absolutely correct, no promise, but for decades the general population became conditioned to believe that it was a sure thing for values to always rise. I erred in using promise, guess I meant I purchased my home because it was the one we wanted to live in and we tried to ignore the notion that it would double in value over x amount of time.

Apartment occupancy rates AND rent costs are both very high where we are near Boston. Plus due to less undeveloped land than FL, there is not such a huge inventory of newly built but never sold residences. Plenty of abandoned homes, plenty waiting in queue for foreclosure. But sales are up, though prices are down.
borndead1 Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 11-07-2006
Posts: 5,216
High demand for apartments will push rent prices higher, and at the same time artificially inflated home prices will keep falling. Then people will start buying houses again.
frankj1 Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
borndead1 wrote:
High demand for apartments will push rent prices higher, and at the same time artificially inflated home prices will keep falling. Then people will start buying houses again.

yes. definitely the formula in places like Boston. and a critical piece of the "recovery". That and our better than the nation's unemployment rate.

Robert is seeing a different cost stucture reality in a state with tons of free space. for years it made little sense to buy a house when you could custom build down there, according to some family I have there. Lots of newer homes sitting there never occupied. Not the reality in eastern Massachusetts.

MA is currently ahead of most states in climbing out of the darkness and perhaps the early slowdown in new residential contruction several years ago turned out to be a blessing in disguise. One less market glut dragging down the economy.
rfenst Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,349
borndead1 wrote:
High demand for apartments will push rent prices higher, and at the same time artificially inflated home prices will keep falling. Then people will start buying houses again.


In many markets there is a housing glut where their are more rentals + homes than the population needs. Also, once apartment prices squeeze people out and they start buying homes again, home prices will level off and eventually begin to rise.

The real issue will be whether the banks are willing to lend and buyers will be able to come up with 20% down and excellent credit ratings. They really aren't right now.

Anyhow, there is definitely some light at the end of the very long tunnel.
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