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Last post 3 months ago by KingoftheCove. 31 replies replies.
Is there a real system to the bid intervals/ bid to win numbers?
vanhalenps4 Offline
#1 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
I'm new to the site and the bidding process having only put in one order with 14 winning bids. The only thing I did was put in prices I would pay without much other thought. I am trying to track down a winning strategy to get the lower prices on the win sheet.. So I have been paying attention to the "bid to win" amounts and trying to see what the intervals are but they aren't consistent..
For example it seemed like once you got above $10 you had to be a dollar over the top bid, and $2 for 20 and up. This is standard for auction sites. But then I see bid to win 54 on a listing that is at 53?
And sometimes the bid to win is $2.50 over and still not over the max bid of the other person..
Just my opinion but I think singles should have a 50 cent interval.

I have some suspicion that the site uses your bid to squeeze a few more dollars out of the other guy who had some room in his max bid.. Otherwise, why show a "bid to win" of $4 more that is instantly outbid by the original person? This isn't on real high profile in demand items that have a lot of bidders, usually only 3 bids at closing

I guess this all changes somewhat on auctions that have more than one unit because sometimes you can get in for the same price as the high bidder if you push out someone who has it at a lower price...

Can someone explain the methods here for me? PS I've read everything on the site FAQ a few times
Pudding Mittens Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 08-15-2016
Posts: 745
.
See my post below for the optimal techniques and strategy to maximize your results with CigarBid:

http://www.cigarbid.com/...Bidding-war#post4382877

Put another way, basically, your odds of winning are better if:

1. you bid as early as possible and NEVER MODIFY bids, and
2. you select auctions with high quantities, not just 1 item.

#1 is because for the same dollar amount, an earlier bid takes precedence over a later bid. So if you and some guy both bid $20, you'll win over him if you placed the bid earlier than he did. Modifying an existing bid puts you "at the back of the line" again, so never do it.

#2 is because if there are 5 or 10 items in an auction, cheapa$$ lowball bids are more likely to work than if there is only 1 item. If there's only 1, there will be fierce competition for it. If there are 10, the competition is spread among more units, and if there are 9 guys who made serious bids plus you who made a crazy-low bid, you're getting the item for that tiny price. If there were 1 or 2 or 3 units, you'd lose.

So given #1 and #2 above, you wait till a large number of auctions have just opened simultaneously (at midnight each night, usually), then immediately pull up a list of these newly-opened auctions sorted by quantity descending, and totally ignore low-quantity auctions. For the high-quantity auctions you rapidly look at them and place $1 starting bids with crazy-low AutoBid maxes, and you do it as fast as you possibly can.

When you run out of auctions that have just opened moments ago and have high quantities, you do NOTHING, because remember, modifying bids sends you to the back of the priority line and can lead to last-minute impulsive bidding wars, too. Your rule is to make lots of bids right after midnight, then DON'T TOUCH ANYTHING after that. You just sit there and watch.

If your AutoBid maxes are cheapa$$ and "chiselly" enough, you'll only win a tiny percentage of auctions, but they'll be amazingly good deals when you do win, and if you do this in high enough volume, even a tiny percentage of wins will get you a good amount of ultra-cheap stuff.

Hope that helps.
.
tamapatom Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 03-19-2015
Posts: 7,231
Bid numbers are whole numbers unless the quantity being sold (represented as a factor of X=Q/2) is an even number, in which case the increment is raised in multiples of the price in Base 4. The initial base integer is set on a reverse exponential scale, customized to double at a slower factor. Or in this case, as a reverse exponential, the rate of bid increment size would decrease. Consequently, the highest incremental multiple starts at the first bid and as the price increases, the rate decreases. This is not always noticeable and is most evident in setting the incremental price change dependent on the ratio between opening bid price and list price. Of course, you also need to factor in the number of lots being offered - the increment is lowered by 1.8008304590 (the phone number for Cbid support) per each two cigars being auctioned. All cigar bids use this formula, but since the starting prices, list prices, quantity and the number of lots being offered varies from bid to bid, the incremental bid bump ups appear to be random. But in fact it is a highly tuned algorithm intended to frustrate buyers into overbidding and raising revenues.
Palama Offline
#4 Posted:
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 11,901
vanhalenps4 wrote:
I'm new to the site and the bidding process having only put in one order with 14 winning bids. The only thing I did was put in prices I would pay without much other thought. I am trying to track down a winning strategy to get the lower prices on the win sheet.. So I have been paying attention to the "bid to win" amounts and trying to see what the intervals are but they aren't consistent..
For example it seemed like once you got above $10 you had to be a dollar over the top bid, and $2 for 20 and up. This is standard for auction sites. But then I see bid to win 54 on a listing that is at 53?
And sometimes the bid to win is $2.50 over and still not over the max bid of the other person..
Just my opinion but I think singles should have a 50 cent interval.

I have some suspicion that the site uses your bid to squeeze a few more dollars out of the other guy who had some room in his max bid.. Otherwise, why show a "bid to win" of $4 more that is instantly outbid by the original person? This isn't on real high profile in demand items that have a lot of bidders, usually only 3 bids at closing

I guess this all changes somewhat on auctions that have more than one unit because sometimes you can get in for the same price as the high bidder if you push out someone who has it at a lower price...

Can someone explain the methods here for me? PS I've read everything on the site FAQ a few times


Try not to overthink this.

I don’t know if there is a “system” that would work 100%. To me, every auction is different in the sense that people will have their reasons and own “system” (...or lack thereof...) for bidding. Maybe they don’t have a nearby local B&M or the shpo charges w-a-y too much so they’re okay paying more. To many on the forum it would be an overbid but to them, they’re still saving money so it’s a win-win. Others are just too dumb / lazy to do some research and blindly overbid just for the sake of winning. Yes, yes, losing is a sign of weakness but I like my wallet with MORE, not less money. Of course, ymmv.

Imo, your current “system” is fine. If I read you correctly, you put in a price that you’re comfortable with and then walk away. When I was actively bidding, that’s exactly what I would do. It’s not a bad thing to put in a super low-ball bid just you can track the winning prices and then when you really wanna win, use that info to strategize your max bid. There were times when, in order to maximize my shipping costs, I would chase a bid and go past some of the previous winning bids but I’d be okay not winning if the price was just too high.

Anyway, take this with a grain of salt and hope you eventually come up with your own “system” that you’re happy with.
Palama Offline
#5 Posted:
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 11,901
Btw, Pudding has some *EXCELLENT” advice and you’d do well to incorporate his “system” into yours.
midmofan Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 04-25-2014
Posts: 875
$30 on a Victor Sinclair 5-pack usually wins....
vanhalenps4 Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
tamapatom wrote:
Bid numbers are whole numbers unless the quantity being sold (represented as a factor of X=Q/2) is an even number, in which case the increment is raised in multiples of the price in Base 4. The initial base integer is set on a reverse exponential scale, customized to double at a slower factor. Or in this case, as a reverse exponential, the rate of bid increment size would decrease. Consequently, the highest incremental multiple starts at the first bid and as the price increases, the rate decreases. This is not always noticeable and is most evident in setting the incremental price change dependent on the ratio between opening bid price and list price. Of course, you also need to factor in the number of lots being offered - the increment is lowered by 1.8008304590 (the phone number for Cbid support) per each two cigars being auctioned. All cigar bids use this formula, but since the starting prices, list prices, quantity and the number of lots being offered varies from bid to bid, the incremental bid bump ups appear to be random. But in fact it is a highly tuned algorithm intended to frustrate buyers into overbidding and raising revenues.


I said I was new to the site but there's no need to state the obvious.
KingoftheCove Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 5,471
NEVER LOSE A BID!

That’s how you win....
RMAN4443 Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 09-29-2016
Posts: 5,994
tamapatom wrote:
Bid numbers are whole numbers unless the quantity being sold (represented as a factor of X=Q/2) is an even number, in which case the increment is raised in multiples of the price in Base 4. The initial base integer is set on a reverse exponential scale, customized to double at a slower factor. Or in this case, as a reverse exponential, the rate of bid increment size would decrease. Consequently, the highest incremental multiple starts at the first bid and as the price increases, the rate decreases. This is not always noticeable and is most evident in setting the incremental price change dependent on the ratio between opening bid price and list price. Of course, you also need to factor in the number of lots being offered - the increment is lowered by 1.8008304590 (the phone number for Cbid support) per each two cigars being auctioned. All cigar bids use this formula, but since the starting prices, list prices, quantity and the number of lots being offered varies from bid to bid, the incremental bid bump ups appear to be random. But in fact it is a highly tuned algorithm intended to frustrate buyers into overbidding and raising revenues.

I was going to say that...Anxious
Sunoverbeach Offline
#10 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2017
Posts: 1,824
Maths is no good. Head making burning smells
vanhalenps4 Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
So ... I just put a bid of 18.50 on 6 out of 6 units of 25 cigars... Now on my own page it says BID TO WIN: 21.50, but that's not going to get anyone anything... Except I will be paying more... If someone puts 21.50 on one unit, does my cost go up to 21.50 for all 6? I don't plan on getting them for that price but maybe one unit at my max.
KingoftheCove Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 5,471
vanhalenps4 wrote:
So ... I just put a bid of 18.50 on 6 out of 6 units of 25 cigars... Now on my own page it says BID TO WIN: 21.50, but that's not going to get anyone anything... Except I will be paying more... If someone puts 21.50 on one unit, does my cost go up to 21.50 for all 6? I don't plan on getting them for that price but maybe one unit at my max.

What is your max bid?
Also, bid increments can vary from one to three dollars, maybe even higher on Liga boxes, etc.......but I wouldn’t know cause that’s outa my range.
vanhalenps4 Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
KingoftheCove wrote:
What is your max bid?
Also, bid increments can vary from one to three dollars, maybe even higher on Liga boxes, etc.......but I wouldn’t know cause that’s outa my range.


I just put it at 25 as an experiment to see if I will get one for that low. I really shouldn't be spending money right now.. Do you think it will go to 25 and the next option for bidders will be 28 then 31?

They seem to have a lot end around 31
RMAN4443 Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 09-29-2016
Posts: 5,994
Go check out the MY LOTS PAGE.....it will tell you there you are winning x of X lots for whatever price you bid, and it will show you your max bid if you have one entered
vanhalenps4 Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
RMAN4443 wrote:
Go check out the MY LOTS PAGE.....it will tell you there you are winning x of X lots for whatever price you bid, and it will show you your max bid if you have one entered


Thanks but I'm past that point, I know that I'm winning them as of now, just trying to figure out how they set the bid increments
KingoftheCove Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 5,471
Yeah, if you bid on all 6, and someone bids, say, 21.50, they will get a notification that they have been outbid, and all 6 of your units would cost you 21.50 if no one else bid on any of them.
vanhalenps4 Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
KingoftheCove wrote:
Yeah, if you bid on all 6, and someone bids, say, 21.50, they will get a notification that they have been outbid, and all 6 of your units would cost you 21.50 if no one else bid on any of them.


That seems really efficient for finding the true market value, but also very easy for the site to have shill bidders that max out the bids without winning themselves.
Palama Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 11,901
vanhalenps4 wrote:
That seems really efficient for finding the true market value, but also very easy for the site to have shill bidders that max out the bids without winning themselves.


True, they “mine” for the max bid but also risk becoming the lead bidder, thus setting the new max bid. And, if they’re just fishing around and had no real intention of winning, they may get stuck with cigars or accessories they don’t want / need. I mean, how else do you explain why some of us have so many extra lighters and cutters? Brick wall
vanhalenps4 Offline
#19 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
Palama wrote:
True, they “mine” for the max bid but also risk becoming the lead bidder, thus setting the new max bid. And, if they’re just fishing around and had no real intention of winning, they may get stuck with cigars or accessories they don’t want / need. I mean, how else do you explain why some of us have so many extra lighters and cutters? Brick wall


I mean they could have bots that know the max bid and always bid up to 1 or 2 less if there is no one else bidding that much.. We wouldn't know the difference.

It reminds me of trading stocks with a set buy/sell price.. The platform you are trading on gives that information to the market makers who have their own agenda, can manipulate the bid/ask to hit your stop loss to accumulate shares and then send the price upward. Like playing in a casino against a dealer who can see your cards
vanhalenps4 Offline
#20 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
Palama wrote:
True, they “mine” for the max bid but also risk becoming the lead bidder, thus setting the new max bid. And, if they’re just fishing around and had no real intention of winning, they may get stuck with cigars or accessories they don’t want / need. I mean, how else do you explain why some of us have so many extra lighters and cutters? Brick wall


I could help you out with getting rid of a cutter and lighter if you want. You should have seen my cutting and lighting today. It was pitiful!
KingoftheCove Offline
#21 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 5,471
vanhalenps4 wrote:
That seems really efficient for finding the true market value, but also very easy for the site to have shill bidders that max out the bids without winning themselves.

It's really cheap too...

They pay ZRX in fivers of LFDs and WOAMs to work 3 nights a week, driving up bids...
Palama Offline
#22 Posted:
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 11,901
vanhalenps4 wrote:
I could help you out with getting rid of a cutter and lighter if you want. You should have seen my cutting and lighting today. It was pitiful!


Dude! You shoulda asked me 4 years ago! I once won 7 single flame torches for $3 each (...yah, I know, I overpaid...). Also multiple Xikar X1s. Gave almost all of the lighters away. Unfortunately I don’t know where the box(es) with all my extras is (are). When we did our renovation about 3 years ago, I had to move all that stuff into our storage locker. Ran across them once or twice and pulled out a cutter and lighter for my nephew. Dunno where in blazes they are now. Brick wall
ZRX1200 Offline
#23 Posted:
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 49,521
Shill bidding is good business!

Anyone ever gotten a package from Trish?

Wow is all I’m gonna say.
frankj1 Online
#24 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 28,407
vanhalenps4 wrote:
I mean they could have bots that know the max bid and always bid up to 1 or 2 less if there is no one else bidding that much.. We wouldn't know the difference.

It reminds me of trading stocks with a set buy/sell price.. The platform you are trading on gives that information to the market makers who have their own agenda, can manipulate the bid/ask to hit your stop loss to accumulate shares and then send the price upward. Like playing in a casino against a dealer who can see your cards

why would you be bidding on a site that you feel is capable of doing that?

Bigger question, how could it not be illegal? If not, how could they continue to pull it off without customers leaving in droves?

I have to believe they are in enough action that they don't need to pull that kind of slimy trick...and I don't even buy anymore.
Bambamcam Offline
#25 Posted:
Joined: 04-29-2019
Posts: 1
Make your bid the last bid as soon as it closes! Don't bid otherwise or else you're bidding against yourself. I've also noticed some of the bid to win is much higher than the lowest price on freefall bidding.always cross reference your bid to win auctions and freefall items.I've been doing this for quite sometime now. Go for bundles of 20 or 10 than boxes. A lot cheaper to get and cheaper on shipping. A lot of CAL boxes are cardboard anyways. Lol. Cheers and have fun!
LHerfing
vanhalenps4 Offline
#26 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
frankj1 wrote:
why would you be bidding on a site that you feel is capable of doing that?

Bigger question, how could it not be illegal? If not, how could they continue to pull it off without customers leaving in droves?

I have to believe they are in enough action that they don't need to pull that kind of slimy trick...and I don't even buy anymore.


This is all hypothetical of course. I'm not saying for sure that it's being done, just that it could. The beauty of it, is when it's .50 or a buck or two, maybe $5 on the real top dollar stuff, no one feels enough sting to care. It would add up to thousands of dollars very quickly. Any site like this would be capable of doing it, with no one knowing, even people who work for the company.
Profiles could be created and destroyed every few days with no record.. What do we see, first and last initials and a city? The entire site is automated. There are probably so many people who sign up and then never bid on anything or win. Their signatures could be used for the system. It's all just code.

I shop here because it's still the best show in town. I know for a fact they lost money on shipping part of my last order. Even if it's not a 100% honest auction(hypothetically speaking of course) It's still on us to decide how much we're paying and stick to that. So within those parameters one can still do well for himself. God willing

vanhalenps4 Offline
#27 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
Palama wrote:
Dude! You shoulda asked me 4 years ago! I once won 7 single flame torches for $3 each (...yah, I know, I overpaid...). Also multiple Xikar X1s. Gave almost all of the lighters away. Unfortunately I don’t know where the box(es) with all my extras is (are). When we did our renovation about 3 years ago, I had to move all that stuff into our storage locker. Ran across them once or twice and pulled out a cutter and lighter for my nephew. Dunno where in blazes they are now. Brick wall


Much appreciated..
I was always prone to hiding things in the top of my closet. Not sure why when there was the entire forest to stow away contraband, I chose the most obvious place in the world. Cost be a fair bit as a youth. Did you check in the garage?Herfing
vanhalenps4 Offline
#28 Posted:
Joined: 05-01-2019
Posts: 89
Bambamcam wrote:
Make your bid the last bid as soon as it closes! Don't bid otherwise or else you're bidding against yourself. I've also noticed some of the bid to win is much higher than the lowest price on freefall bidding.always cross reference your bid to win auctions and freefall items.I've been doing this for quite sometime now. Go for bundles of 20 or 10 than boxes. A lot cheaper to get and cheaper on shipping. A lot of CAL boxes are cardboard anyways. Lol. Cheers and have fun!
LHerfing


I've sniped a couple at the last second with success.. Got a box of 20 Alec Bradley Tempus for $63 that way. Auction was in the mid 50s when I came upon it. Now I'd like to get some singles of that to keep the box sealed lol. I keep an eye on the freefalls but it does take much patience to watch them bounce back and forth; understood why a lot of people avoid them with some of the starting prices being what they are.
My best deal was empty wooden boxes. They send out some beaut's for less than a buck each. Got a Cohiba, a PDR, Camacho and 7 others that are very handy.
My fun here is limited not by the site, but by my bank account! Cheers
smokestaxx Offline
#29 Posted:
Joined: 01-27-2012
Posts: 4,183
I live my life like there's no tomorrow!!!!
dstieger Offline
#30 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,316
My system is a little simpler:
I bid only on cigars that I want. I put a max bid equal to the max I'm willing to pay.

The only time I deviate at all is if I'm approaching my weekly cutoff and have only won one bid...I do sometimes big a buck or two higher than normal on one or more things, so I feel better about over unit shipping cost.

It turns out that when I don't win cigars at the price I want....they magically go back up for auction again
KingoftheCove Offline
#31 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 5,471
dstieger wrote:
My system is a little simpler:
I bid only on cigars that I want. I put a max bid equal to the max I'm willing to pay.

The only time I deviate at all is if I'm approaching my weekly cutoff and have only won one bid...I do sometimes big a buck or two higher than normal on one or more things, so I feel better about over unit shipping cost.

It turns out that when I don't win cigars at the price I want....they magically go back up for auction again

+1
And I have a few items that are always on FF that I like........I know the lowest reset........and I’ll buy if I’m at my weekly cutoff with only one of two wins. Bonus is that the resets on these are usually lower than bid prices.
Guess people just don’t check FF these days.

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