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Where will you be when the Israelis bomb Iran in the spring?
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bloody spaniard Offline
#1 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 10:03 AM EST
Joined: 03-14-2003
Posts: 43,802
Panetta suspects that Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed within a few months.
That's about the time our volume of business picks up...d'oh!
daveincincy Offline
#2 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 10:39 AM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
I thought Israel bombed them (or someone) not too long ago, maybe in the last 6 - 8 months, but it didn't get much (if any) press coverage. Think
bloody spaniard Offline
#3 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 10:48 AM EST
Joined: 03-14-2003
Posts: 43,802
daveincincy wrote:
I thought Israel bombed them (or someone) not too long ago, maybe in the last 6 - 8 months, but it didn't get much (if any) press coverage. Think



Those "accidents" may have been coordinated by the Mossad w/o CIA complicity of course...Whistle
rfenst Offline
#4 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:10 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,415
daveincincy wrote:
I thought Israel bombed them (or someone) not too long ago, maybe in the last 6 - 8 months, but it didn't get much (if any) press coverage. Think


I think you are referring to Israel 's 2007 bombing of a new nuclear site or reactor in Syria.

In 1981, Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq.

Recently, there were a series of "mishaps" at one of Iran's nuclear facilities. There were explosions on more than one day. Some of the scientists were mysteriously killed or are still missing.
rfenst Offline
#5 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:13 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,415
Anyone see the documentery film Iranium yet?
DrafterX Offline
#6 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:14 AM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,577
Haven't seen it... sounds interesting tho... Mellow
daveincincy Offline
#7 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:15 AM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
rfenst wrote:
I think you are referring to Israel 's 2007 bombing of a new nuclear site or reactor in Syria.

In 1981, Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq.

Recently, there were a series of "mishaps" at one of Iran's nuclear facilities. There were explosions on more than one day. Some of the scientists were mysteriously killed or are still missing.



This was a "bombing" more recent than 2007...
rfenst Offline
#8 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:17 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,415
daveincincy wrote:
This was a "bombing" more recent than 2007...


With respect to nuclear matters- by air or mysterious means?

Or, are you talking about bombings of Gaza and/or Lebanon?
rfenst Offline
#9 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:19 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,415
bloody spaniard wrote:
Panetta suspects that Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed within a few months.
That's about the time our volume of business picks up...d'oh!


Start selling radiation gear!
daveincincy Offline
#10 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:21 AM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
rfenst wrote:
With respect to nuclear matters- by air or mysterious means?

Or, are you talking about bombings of Gaza and/or Lebanon?


Honestly, I forget. Don't think it was Gaza related though. Think
bloody spaniard Offline
#11 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 11:44 AM EST
Joined: 03-14-2003
Posts: 43,802
I don't keep a track of all those bombings. We probably don't know half of the covert activities that are ongoing anyway.

The announcement by Panetta yesterday was very suspicious however... almost as if to undermine Netanyahu after he confided his intentions to the Obama administration. Why else make it public?

The watershed moment is coming for the Israelis. Once that window is closed (this year?), Iran will have nuclear weapons & won't be afraid to use them IMO. Hopefully they'll be able to pinpoint the targets w/o causing (and absorbing) too many civilian casualties.
Yeah, yeah, I know, HD. Everything's proceeding according to plan...
rfenst Offline
#12 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 12:23 PM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,415
This is going to get ugly fast. Iran's intention is to wipe Israel of the map- they have said so. Israel asserts that Iran will have nuclear capability by the end of this Spring. U.S. estimates differ. Sanctions, if they could even work, are not scheduled to begin until July. By then, it is predicted that U.S. bunker-busters would be inadequate to destroy Iranian nuclear sites and would need to be re-configured. If war is inevitable, why shouldn't Israel just conventionally carpet-bomb the facilities - not the Iranian people-now?
rfenst Offline
#13 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 12:26 PM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,415
daveincincy wrote:
This was a "bombing" more recent than 2007...



Maybe "time flies" when you are having fun? Or, maybe I pulled the wrong dates or bombing from the Internet...
daveincincy Offline
#14 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 12:31 PM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
Gas prices should be rising soon...just because.
Kawak Offline
#15 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 12:55 PM EST
Joined: 11-26-2007
Posts: 4,025
I will be in the state of denial. It's located right next to Washington DC
bloody spaniard Offline
#16 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 1:05 PM EST
Joined: 03-14-2003
Posts: 43,802
Kawak wrote:
I will be in the state of denial. It's located right next to Washington DC




Same here, Kawak. Don't jinx us. LOL

I'm 10 miles from the DOE on one side and 20-25 miles from Fort Detrick (anthrax/micro-biological lab) on the other.
...and in between (adjacent to us on 270) is a corridor of chemical labs. Every time I see funny headwear, I get a nervous tic. May have to consider Florida. LOL
DrMaddVibe Offline
#17 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:23 PM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,552
bloody spaniard wrote:
May have to consider Florida. LOL




SCREW THAT!!!!

You're not safe here!


I'm already thinking 'bout Costa Rica...maybe Belize...last stop would be Panama or Argentina.
DrafterX Offline
#18 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:29 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,577
Belize..??? man... it's a nice place and stuff but lots of bad guys and very little law enforcement... heard some stories when I was there about people saving money to build homes only to be run off when they finished... Mellow
bloody spaniard Offline
#19 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:37 PM EST
Joined: 03-14-2003
Posts: 43,802
That's all I need is to be living out of a van by a river in Belize.d'oh!
DrafterX Offline
#20 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:40 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,577
took a tube-float trip down a river thru a cave and stuff when I was there.... crystal clear water up in the hills.... I wouldn't park by a river near town tho... Mellow
DrMaddVibe Offline
#21 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:42 PM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,552
DrafterX wrote:
Belize..??? man... it's a nice place and stuff but lots of bad guys and very little law enforcement... heard some stories when I was there about people saving money to build homes only to be run off when they finished... Mellow



Sounds just like Detroit or Philadelphia!whip
DrMaddVibe Offline
#22 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:43 PM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,552
bloody spaniard wrote:
That's all I need is to be living out of a van by a river in Belize.d'oh!






HEY!





If the van is a rockin'...don't come a knockin'!whip
daveincincy Offline
#23 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:49 PM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
DrMaddVibe wrote:
Sounds just like Detroit or Philadelphia!whip



The only difference is nobody wants to occupy the homes...people are just running away from them.
jetblasted Offline
#24 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:50 PM EST
Joined: 08-30-2004
Posts: 42,595
I'll be in Vegas in April ...
DrMaddVibe Offline
#25 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 2:55 PM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,552
daveincincy wrote:
The only difference is nobody wants to occupy the homes...people are just running away from them.



Oh...yeah...that DOES make a difference.
itsawaldo Offline
#26 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 7:19 PM EST
Joined: 09-10-2006
Posts: 4,221
I don’t want to thread jack but Nukes is scary!

I drove up the Eden’s today from Chicago to the North suburbs near where I grew up and as I drove past Tower Road I recalled that there used to be a NIKE missile base on the East side of the road. Sometimes you could see the missiles pointed up and on their launch rails when you drove on the expressway. On the West side of Eden’s was the small Army base tucked between the frontage road and the RR tracks that supported the base. As kids we used to play on the tracks and wave at the soldiers there. When you’d drive down Forest Preserve Drive just east of the base you would see the radar domes and guard shack and such. Being kids we thought it was cool, we didn’t know jack about the cold war but the space race was on too and those were missiles, shiny, white, and sleek.

This was the price of Freedom and an essential deterrent to Soviet bomber attack on Chicago at the time. The thing that scared the living crap out of me today was recalling the show last week on History/Discovery channel where they described NIKE missiles. I grew up within a half mile as the crow flies of some twenty plus armed and ready to rock and roll nuclear tipped NIKE missiles. What were we thinking? I wonder if my parents really knew how dangerous these were to be near or did they “feel” safe because of them? There was a cold war going on you know. NIKES were armed with Nuclear warheads and they were designed to fly way high over the incoming Soviet nuclear armed bombers, drop down and explode above them, annihilating the bombers and I am sure a few residents of central Wisconsin and in turn lots of fallout everywhere else. My dad when asked what would he do if the bombers came, he'd say take my family out to the yard and look south at Chicago, knowing it would be the last thing we saw.

My point is that it took a crapload of bombs, planes, subs to remind the commies that if they do us in, we do them in and it kept Nukes at bay, but what do you do about a people that live to hate? How do you deter them?

Israel goes to war so do we and who knows how China and Russia will react, throw in that the Arabs hate the Persians and maybe December 2012 is more than a prophecy…..what a cluster eff.
HockeyDad Offline
#27 Posted: Fri, Feb 3 2012, 8:11 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
Best case: I'll be sitting at my desk sipping cognac and finalizing some no-bid reconstruction contracts.

Worst case: I'll be sitting in Washington-Dulles airport in the United Airlines Red Carpet Club lounge sipping cognac and finalizing some no-bid reconstruction contracts.

(I tried to stop this war. Now I'm just giving the people what they want. Don't blame me.)
frankj1 Offline
#28 Posted: Sat, Feb 4 2012, 12:02 AM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
HockeyDad wrote:
Best case: I'll be sitting at my desk sipping cognac and finalizing some no-bid reconstruction contracts.

Worst case: I'll be sitting in Washington-Dulles airport in the United Airlines Red Carpet Club lounge sipping cognac and finalizing some no-bid reconstruction contracts.

(I tried to stop this war. Now I'm just giving the people what they want. Don't blame me.)

blame you? might be the best thing ever! you can't really be for these lunatics. it's throwdown time.

but seriously, Iran doesn't want it to go down this road, do they?
HockeyDad Offline
#29 Posted: Sat, Feb 4 2012, 8:06 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
frankj1 wrote:
but seriously, Iran doesn't want it to go down this road, do they?


No Iran does not. Israel does. The US military industrial complex does. The picture has been painted....just remember who painted the picture.
Humastronaut Offline
#30 Posted: Sat, Feb 4 2012, 10:41 AM EST
Joined: 07-26-2011
Posts: 231
Fiji!
frankj1 Offline
#31 Posted: Sat, Feb 4 2012, 6:49 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
HockeyDad wrote:
No Iran does not. Israel does. The US military industrial complex does. The picture has been painted....just remember who painted the picture.

Oh there's a clear picture painted alright, but it's by Iran's leaders, and if you can't see it then check out the lyrics they have supplied in unambiguous terms:

Israel must be removed from the face of the Earth.

Crystal clear. They do not want to be misinterpreted. Old words that never stopped from them, and others. They are proud of it, they are not hiding in shameful shadows. This is no whisper campaign. The difference today is they have finally decided to make their dream come true. Such is the unavoidable destiny of modern holocaust denyers like their Maynard G. Krebs look-alike leader. The citizens of Iran, not so sure they totally buy into it but they are oppressed by their gov't. Never read about that from you.

But it's an ancient hatred for them, they are not neo-nazis. Might have even inspired Hitler's nutty little Aryan master race blueprint, I dunno, but this is not a new idea for them or other radical Muslims.

You have issues with Israel and Israeli policy. Fine. Many agree with you. But don't you see that what Iran et al really despise is Judaism? And Israel sticks in their craw. You absolutely never address that underlying FACT other than citing some new negative that Israel has done to cause it now. But they have hated forever. They will continue to hate. It isn't because of settlements. This is not an Arab/Israeli skirmish. There is simply zero desire for a life in peace side by side in their dream.

Their not-so clandestine military policies, along with those kooks from Syria, have been to dispassionately lead Palestinians to slaughter in an effort to destabilize Israel, take her down, corrupt the world's view of her. But it just ain't working and Syria as they know it, may be disappearing. What to do if you are Iran?

You are correct in one sense, Iran does not want war either, they want a laydown.

Has Israel ever said they plan to erase another nation from the map? The truth, as you know it too, is nope.

They won't allow anyone to erase them. You call that provocative agitation. Unfathomable.

If you don't want to send aid (money/arms) to Israel or any country. Fine. Believe in that, it's an arguable political position with merit. I can understand that position/vision/philosophy.

I'll never convince you, not really my goal. Just want to make sure the truth stays alive here and anywhere there are deniers and people gullible enough to believe the neuveau slick marketing of Israel's enemies spinning the softening of their destroy-Israel policies.

Don't bother speaking for me...I pray there will not be a war with Iran. You guessed wrong.
frankj1 Offline
#32 Posted: Sat, Feb 4 2012, 11:37 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
rfenst wrote:
This is going to get ugly fast. Iran's intention is to wipe Israel of the map- they have said so. Israel asserts that Iran will have nuclear capability by the end of this Spring. U.S. estimates differ. Sanctions, if they could even work, are not scheduled to begin until July. By then, it is predicted that U.S. bunker-busters would be inadequate to destroy Iranian nuclear sites and would need to be re-configured. If war is inevitable, why shouldn't Israel just conventionally carpet-bomb the facilities - not the Iranian people-now?

exactly Robert. Yet some otherwise very intelligent people can't "feel" it and insist people like us want constant war. No one wants war, no one. Your suggestion woukd save lives.
HockeyDad Offline
#33 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 9:15 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Aerospace & Defense Index Fund: Ticker ITA
or
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust Aerospace & Defense: Ticker PPA


Unless you study the individual companies and under stand exactly what they make, these two choices are the easiest way to play it. The downside is these funds are running near their 52 week highs already even those most defense firms have been posting significant declines in earnings. The budget deal and already announced defense spending cuts would make it appear that things will only get worse. The fact that these stocks are running at 52 week highs anyway tells me that a lot of people are already way out in front of you on the "War with Iran" trade but there should still be money to be made.

Now if you want to go a little risky and play the Israeli defense industry, most of it is government owned like Rafael and Israeli Aerospace but a nice technology company that you can buy is Elbit Systems (ESLT). They are big on electronics upgrade systems and have a line of drone aircraft. A nice thing about this company is because they are not government owned, they will sell their systems to anyone in the world who has cash.

Another way to go that is even simpler is oil. We all now oil is going up when the shooting starts. Unlike the defense contractors, oil has not moved up yet. The trick with oil is it may be a short term spike so you have to move quick both in and out. The safer way to go would be to just buy oil companies instead of the commodity through an ETF like (USO). The oil companies you want are the ones not buying a bunch of oil from the Persian Gulf because you're betting that Iran cuts off the Straits of Hormuz temporarily through action or just fear.

An added advantage of have some investment money in oil or oil companies is that when gasoline prices skyrocket in the USA, it will take the edge off the pain a little knowing you're making some of that back in the stock market.
HockeyDad Offline
#34 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 9:37 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
When investing for the war with Iran, you also need to take into consideration what kind of war it will be. Based on effectiveness with the wars with Iraq and Israel's various wars with their "neighbors" since 1973, we can get some idea of how the entire scenario can play out when we put those things in context with recent statements in the news.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said last fall that a US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities might delay its alleged nuclear weapons program by only up to three years and he warned of unintended consequences. Former Defense Secretary Gates said the exact same thing.

Wikileaks also revealed US intelligence documents showing doubts about the effectiveness of any raids.

Time magazine even recently reported that a senior Israel Defense Forces commander said “I informed the cabinet we have no ability to hit the Iranian nuclear program in a meaningful way.”

So we now have three different sources saying that an attack by Israel or the USA will only delay Iran from developing a nuclear weapon if they choose to do so. Now we can extrapolate from that a bit to get an idea of what kind of war must be coming.

The first Iran war could be either a air war from Israel or an air/cruise missile war from the USA. This does some damage, destabilizes the Middle East, and spikes oil at a minimum. The net effect is it delays Iran's nuclear program by a few years while Iran rebuilds, hardens, and hides better. Now we know an air war can't eliminate the program so that leaves only one option left.

The second Iran war will be a ground war. The ground war must be conducted by the USA. Israel need to lead the USA into that war because Israel has nowhere near the capability and if they attacked Iran in the first war and accelerated the nuclear program or shifted into a desire for nuclear weapons, a ground war has to happen.

The first war will be good for the oil investments. The second war will be truly good for the military industrial complex investments.
HockeyDad Offline
#35 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 9:53 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
One of the things we don't know is how ferocious the first war will be.

Option 1: Israel sends some planes, bombs some stuff, and Iran shakes their fist. (Copy of the Israeli attack on Syrian and Iraqi nuclear facilities)

Option 2: Iran shoots down a few Israeli planes, Islamic Jihad displaces Hamas in Gaza and opens fire, Hezbollah opens fire from Lebanon, full scale fighting starts between Jewish colonists and Palestinians in the West Bank resulting in Palestinian displacement, Iran opens fire with long range missiles.

Option 3: Some combination of stuff from option 2 plus Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. This probably accelerates pulling the USA involuntarily into the fray and speeds up the timetable for the ground war during Iran II. If Israel starts the shooting, the Straits need to get closed to drag the USA in.


Although it results in Israeli casualties (sometimes you have to break a few eggs), option 3 is what Israel wants if they cannot succeed in convincing Obama to do the entire war for them as an "October Surprise". Option 3 is the best for our war investments.

The best option for Iran is option 1 following by rebuilding, hardening, and hiding while accelerating the program. With all the warfare going on in the middle east, Iran has stayed out of it since their war with Iraq in the 1980s.

When you place your investment bets, you need to keep in mind that you are betting on option 1 versus option 3 because option 3 accelerates the ground war and the big payoff.
HockeyDad Offline
#36 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 10:01 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
What we do not need to worry about is whether or not a war will happen. Israel will absolutely not tolerate a nuclear armed neighbor.

The worst thing that could happen is Iran develops a nuclear weapon and then does nothing with it like Pakistan or North Korea. The mere threat would force Israel to totally reconsider their big dog status in the region and would act as a deterrent to future Israeli wars with their neighbors and maybe even encourage a "need" for peace. Meanwhile it would embolden those same neighbors like Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel is not about to give up its ability to attack anyone and anytime with impunity even though the track record of those attacks has been more of a cluster than successful.
HockeyDad Offline
#37 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 10:19 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
frankj1 wrote:
Crystal clear. They do not want to be misinterpreted. Old words that never stopped from them, and others. They are proud of it, they are not hiding in shameful shadows. This is no whisper campaign. The difference today is they have finally decided to make their dream come true. Such is the unavoidable destiny of modern holocaust denyers like their Maynard G. Krebs look-alike leader. The citizens of Iran, not so sure they totally buy into it but they are oppressed by their gov't. Never read about that from you.

But it's an ancient hatred for them, they are not neo-nazis. Might have even inspired Hitler's nutty little Aryan master race blueprint, I dunno, but this is not a new idea for them or other radical Muslims.




Holocaust deniers, Hitler, Neo-Nazis.....

You've done more than an adequate job of representing the Israeli lobbying effort here just as it goes on daily in Washington DC. We get it. The USA must attack Iran immediately to save Israel. You left out "existential threat" which is another one of the favorite buzzwords used for every flavor of the month concern for Israel.

Lemme help you a bit more......

Israel is now suggesting that Iran is developing a long range missile with a range of 6200 miles but the USA doesn't agree about this claim. If it were true, the USA would be in range!
HockeyDad Offline
#38 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 10:23 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
rfenst wrote:
If war is inevitable, why shouldn't Israel just conventionally carpet-bomb the facilities - not the Iranian people-now?



Because Israel wants the USA to do it for them but Israel won't wait forever. We have to factor this into our bets on option 1 or option 3 and when to place the bets.
HockeyDad Offline
#39 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 10:28 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
frankj1 wrote:
exactly Robert. Yet some otherwise very intelligent people can't "feel" it and insist people like us want constant war. No one wants war, no one. Your suggestion would save lives.



What is this "no one wants war" crap?

I came over to your side and now we're going to do this wink-wink nod-nod routine about how war is bad? Remember, without Iran War II and the ground war, there will not be any no-bid reconstruction contracts for Le HockeyDad.
frankj1 Offline
#40 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 10:43 AM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
Yup, market reacting to world situations. Or is it wag the dog? Ike warned us. I am not blind to your posts above, so much truth that can't be denied. I guess I am just more fixed on the mindsets of the folks with most to lose, the same folks that got us to this point and how they did so. And I don't mean the investors. Money comes, money goes, and end of the world predictions pop up every day.

Hope you have the resources to cash in. But remember to thank the ancient hatred for creating such opportunity. Guess we disagree on the whole chicken egg thing.

I naively believe your scenarios can be avoided without many lives being lost, but certainly huge paydays would go by the wayside. I continue to address the root causes. I am a bit cash strapped these days.

There has always been/is now/always will be a "need for peace". One side's version asks for acceptance of their right to exist, the other seeks the elimination of said rival or it can not rest. But at least you finally gave credence to my initial argument months ago that Israel really is surrounded by those dedicated to their demise, I first called it a seige, you strongly poo pooed the notion. I feel vindicated.

I don't know how to advise you on betting the over/under. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

Frank
HockeyDad Offline
#41 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 10:59 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
frankj1 wrote:
But at least you finally gave credence to my initial argument months ago that Israel really is surrounded by those dedicated to their demise, I first called it a siege, you strongly poo pooed the notion. I feel vindicated.



The term "surrounded" was and is still a load of crap! Jordan and Egypt have peace treaties with Israel and those are the two largest borders. The only way to make the "surrounded" claim was to declare all arabs to be enemies of Israel. (Actually that might be how Netanyahoo got elected or something close to it!. It definitely got 110% of the settler vote!)
HockeyDad Offline
#42 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 11:21 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
frankj1 wrote:
But remember to thank the ancient hatred for creating such opportunity. Guess we disagree on the whole chicken egg thing.



The neat thing about ancient hatred is it gets hard to figure out who started it after awhile.

I can't blame the Israelites for holding grudges after the whole slavery in Egypt deal and building the pyramids, conquering by the Assyrians, conquering by the Babylonians, conquering by the Persians, conquering by the Greeks, conquering by the Romans, getting renamed as Syria Palaestina and getting hauled off to Rome to build the Colosseum, and then becoming dhimmi under Muslim and Ottoman rule for a millennium.

If I went through all that, I would probably want to nuke someone too!
frankj1 Offline
#43 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 1:41 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
HockeyDad wrote:
The neat thing about ancient hatred is it gets hard to figure out who started it after awhile.

I can't blame the Israelites for holding grudges after the whole slavery in Egypt deal and building the pyramids, conquering by the Assyrians, conquering by the Babylonians, conquering by the Persians, conquering by the Greeks, conquering by the Romans, getting renamed as Syria Palaestina and getting hauled off to Rome to build the Colosseum, and then becoming dhimmi under Muslim and Ottoman rule for a millennium.

If I went through all that, I would probably want to nuke someone too!

actually, from what I remember (I was just a child) dhimmi wasn't such a bad gig.
frankj1 Offline
#44 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 2:10 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
HockeyDad wrote:
The term "surrounded" was and is still a load of crap! Jordan and Egypt have peace treaties with Israel and those are the two largest borders. The only way to make the "surrounded" claim was to declare all arabs to be enemies of Israel. (Actually that might be how Netanyahoo got elected or something close to it!. It definitely got 110% of the settler vote!)


You know, you just slay me evey time you talk about those treaties.

The "treaty" with Egypt isn't worth the parchment it was written on, now more than ever (if they finally succeed in completing their attempted revolution) and that goes back to well before the current military regime as much of the citizenry never wanted to honor it. Egypt will only honor it until the day they think they might actually be able to beat Israel. It has always been so. Israel's military is what enforced it. Muslim Brotherhood is just another restricted membership country club. Very tough sand traps, wouldn't want to belong.

Jordan, they probably would like to stay out of it. They wanted no part years ago and created the West Bank, leading to men without a country. But there is the West Bank in the circle that surrounds and somehow weapons manage to get through Jordan. Those Syrians are crafty.

I think we have both sufficiently established our positions and no change will come from more exchanges. I'd consider negotiating a Tampa/Boston peace treaty but not with preconditions. Or at least a cease fire for the Super Bowl. Can't afford to get carpal in my beer stein wrist.
HockeyDad Offline
#45 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 2:55 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
frankj1 wrote:
You know, you just slay me evey time you talk about those treaties.

The "treaty" with Egypt isn't worth the parchment it was written on, now more than ever (if they finally succeed in completing their attempted revolution) and that goes back to well before the current military regime as much of the citizenry never wanted to honor it. Egypt will only honor it until the day they think they might actually be able to beat Israel. It has always been so. Israel's military is what enforced it. Muslim Brotherhood is just another restricted membership country club. Very tough sand traps, wouldn't want to belong.

Jordan, they probably would like to stay out of it. They wanted no part years ago and created the West Bank, leading to men without a country. But there is the West Bank in the circle that surrounds and somehow weapons manage to get through Jordan. Those Syrians are crafty.

I think we have both sufficiently established our positions and no change will come from more exchanges. I'd consider negotiating a Tampa/Boston peace treaty but not with preconditions. Or at least a cease fire for the Super Bowl. Can't afford to get carpal in my beer stein wrist.




When you discard the treaties and all the work that went into them by great men, you leave Israel with pretty much no option but endless war and preferably a 500 mile ring around Israel where every living thing is killed. Now Israel would be safe. You would get a fair amount of support from this from the right wing in Israel, especially if the USA actually was the one who cleared the ring!

Any weapons getting through Jordan are getting into the West Bank by walking right past the Israeli army. The Israeli army controls the entire border between the West Bank and Jordan and has the West Bank 100% surrounded.

I'm "all in" on the Israeli war on Iran. I don't truly believe Israel has the capability to do anything effective and that is why they want the USA to do it for them. I'm not sold on why the USA needs to do if for them and sacrifice our sons, daughters, and money.

I would be fine with a Tampa/Boston peace treaty. You can have Marlborough, Shrewsbury, and Worcester and I'll take the rest of Massachusetts. Sounds fair to me.
HockeyDad Offline
#46 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 3:10 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
Of course there is another side to betting on war with Iran.

Sure, Israel may start some s&%t and that is what all the sabre rattling is about right now but is the USA ready and willing to start some s&%t? Do you have confidence that President Obama is ready to start a major war because Israel tells us we need to do so? Do you believe this based on Secretary of Defense Panetta's comments about the effectiveness? Will a big war tip over the global economy and put us back into recession and wipe out all of Obama's recent gains in job creation, GDP growth, and unemployment? Is Obama really willing to bet all that?

You have to take this into account when placing a big bet on war. If you're not sure, you wait for the November elections. When faced with the same prodding from Israel, will President Barack Romney pull the trigger? I'm not too sure that is a guaranteed bet. Will President Newt do it? (Israel is betting heavy on President Newt because they expect he'll launch the attack from his inaugural address via text message!)

Personally, I don't see Barack Romney or Mitt Obama pulling the trigger first and Newt's chances are deteriorating at getting the job. This means Israel has to be the one to pull the trigger and try drag the USA in.

Keep in mind when betting that if the USA doesn't pull the trigger or get dragged in, it is not much benefit for the US military industrial complex. Now the better play is oil.

If Israel does manage to pull the USA in and turn this into a giant Middle East conflagration, this opens the door for a third betting option that could be the best of all.......shorting all European and American stock markets as a bet that the fragile economic recovery will falter as a result of the war.
frankj1 Offline
#47 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 5:15 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
HockeyDad wrote:
When you discard the treaties and all the work that went into them by great men, you leave Israel with pretty much no option but endless war and preferably a 500 mile ring around Israel where every living thing is killed. Now Israel would be safe. You would get a fair amount of support from this from the right wing in Israel, especially if the USA actually was the one who cleared the ring!

I'm not discarding the great work of great men, I wish Arafat had not spit on the greatest work of those great men when he had a chance to change the future. But I am simply not believing that Egypt can be trusted to honor it any longer, and only their repressive gov. has kept it viable so far. That could be short lived. Scary. My opinion.




Sure, Israel may start some s&%t and that is what all the sabre rattling is about right now but is the USA ready and willing to start some s&%t? Do you have confidence that President Obama is ready to start a major war because Israel tells us we need to do so?

What was the final body count of US soldiers in all those Arab Israeli wars?
No I do not believe Israel can tell Obama what to do.

I find it confusing that the same political side that hates Obama's supposed anti Israeli/pro Muslim positions and policies also has factions that claim he is another in a series of Israeli controlled puppet presidents (or the de facto leader of Israel the 51st state). Mutually exclusive claims from the same crowd (not you) Nonetheless, it is hogwash that Israel dictates our policy even though they are a favored nation in our view of a free world. It is also hogwash, especially since Obama, that Israel takes direct orders from us, most recent evidence being Netanyahooo's visit. But a high degree of agreement and cooperation seems normal enough and is to be expected by nations that are considered allies, no? Canada probably agrees with us on lotsa stuff too but no one is claiming conspiracy that we are able to keep peace on both sides of Niagra Falls.

A notable exception to Israel taking "orders" was when they did honor Bush's request to stay stay out of it when Saddam fired missles into Israeli neighborhoods. Musta been really hard for a nation so desirous of endless war..

Anyhoo, since I do not want Worcester either, let's set it free, strip them of their citizenship, ask New Jersey to annex, and ultimately recreate what Jordan hath wrought. We'll call it "New Palestine", but the residents will probably refuse any rational offers of statehood forever.

Heading out now. A great evening is about to unfold. GO PATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HockeyDad Offline
#48 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 5:48 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,187
frankj1 wrote:

What was the final body count of US soldiers in all those Arab Israeli wars?


37 dead and 170 wounded in direct combat action.

frankj1 wrote:
A notable exception to Israel taking "orders" was when they did honor Bush's request to stay stay out of it when Saddam fired missiles into Israeli neighborhoods. Musta been really hard for a nation so desirous of endless war.


You gotta admit their end of the bargain was pretty sweet.....No more Saddam, no more WMD, and no more Iraq and done and paid for all by the US of A! Nobody ever said those Jews don't know how to negotiate....

frankj1 wrote:
Anyhoo, since I do not want Worcester either, let's set it free, strip them of their citizenship, ask New Jersey to annex, and ultimately recreate what Jordan hath wrought. We'll call it "New Palestine", but the residents will probably refuse any rational offers of statehood forever.

Heading out now. A great evening is about to unfold. GO PATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Nobody ever wants Worcester! Have fun tonight!

GO GIANTS!

(You would have expected nothing less from me.)
frankj1 Offline
#49 Posted: Sun, Feb 5 2012, 10:48 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,245
HockeyDad wrote:
37 dead and 170 wounded in direct combat action.

so ends the nonesense of us doing their fighting.



You gotta admit their end of the bargain was pretty sweet.....No more Saddam, no more WMD, and no more Iraq and done and paid for all by the US of A! Nobody ever said those Jews don't know how to negotiate....

but we didn't do it for them. We did it to get the Osama bin Saddam guy, remember. The guy who took the twin towers and whose oil was gonna pay for the whole shmear. It had nothing to do with Israel.




Nobody ever wants Worcester! Have fun tonight!

Poor Worcester

GO GIANTS!

(You would have expected nothing less from me.)


You happen to be one guy I can count on, thanks for that.

Game sucked.

Frank...out.
rfenst Offline
#50 Posted: Mon, Feb 6 2012, 11:02 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,415
This thread has, once again, degenerated and become pathetic. No responsible country would stand still while its most determined and apparently soon to be capable enemy nation appears to be technologically moving close to its undeniable stated goal of annihilation of that country. Whether the U.S gets dragged in or chooses to participate is on the U.S., not the pro-Israel or the Jewish lobbies. Even though I am a Jew. Even though I believe that Israel should exist. Even though I believe in most of the concepts of Zionism, I do NOT want there to be a war, let alone one where the U.S. gets involved.
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