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Last post 11 years ago by 8trackdisco. 46 replies replies.
Which Presidential Election Polls Do You Trust as Unbiased?
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rfenst Offline
#1 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 8:16 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,490
There are claims of polling bias heating up (as usual)- wondering which you consider unbiased (and accurate if any)...
DrafterX Offline
#2 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 8:20 AM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,601
Fox is Fair & Balanced.... Mellow
victor809 Offline
#3 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 8:34 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
7-11's Coffee cup poll.

Apparently in past years it has tracked very close to national levels.
HockeyDad Offline
#4 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 8:46 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,219
In Obama's upcoming recession, the polls will not matter.



(Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods dropped sharply in August suggesting the main engine of economic growth was stalling, offsetting hopeful signs of an improvement in the labor market.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. That primarily reflected weak aircraft and automobiles demand, although orders for a wide range of goods also fell.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders for durable goods -- items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years -- to fall 5 percent.

The sharp drop underscored the weakness in the economy, whose growth pace in the second-quarter was cut down to a 1.3 percent annual pace from 1.7 percent, mainly because of a drought in the Midwest, and dimmed hopes of a pick-up in activity.

"It just shows the manufacturing side of the economy continues to labor here, and in fact, contract. Orders are so critical to what is ahead," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.
Brewha Offline
#5 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:02 AM EST
Joined: 01-25-2010
Posts: 12,207
PBS – because they are a liberal rag . . . .
daveincincy Offline
#6 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:14 AM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
At least 47% will vote for Obama regardless of the economic situation....but that number could drop by as much as 25% (possibly more) if the weather is bad.
Brewha Offline
#7 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:19 AM EST
Joined: 01-25-2010
Posts: 12,207
Not the full 47% - A lot of the disabled vets don’t have picture ID’s with current address and expiration date . . . . .
rfenst Offline
#8 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:23 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,490
HockeyDad wrote:
In Obama's upcoming recession, the polls will not matter.



(Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods dropped sharply in August suggesting the main engine of economic growth was stalling, offsetting hopeful signs of an improvement in the labor market.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. That primarily reflected weak aircraft and automobiles demand, although orders for a wide range of goods also fell.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders for durable goods -- items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years -- to fall 5 percent.

The sharp drop underscored the weakness in the economy, whose growth pace in the second-quarter was cut down to a 1.3 percent annual pace from 1.7 percent, mainly because of a drought in the Midwest, and dimmed hopes of a pick-up in activity.

"It just shows the manufacturing side of the economy continues to labor here, and in fact, contract. Orders are so critical to what is ahead," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.


Not in the least but surprising to me. The political question that arises is whether Obama can escape this/whether Romney will be able to pin it on Obama.

Yesterday's labor analysis from UCF indicated that employers are increasingly offering labor assignments employment with no benefits and no guarantee of continuing work at the completion of a task or time period) as opposed to traditional jobs (full time with benefits). But, short-term/part-time hiring forecasts for the holidays are greater than what was expected. Housing starts are up. and, we are still at least a couple years away from beginning to see the real "light at the end of the tunnel". Weaker than expected new jobs was blamed both on uncertain economics and election uncertainty...

But, I digress. Which poll do you think is unbiased?
Mathen Offline
#9 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:33 AM EST
Joined: 05-27-2011
Posts: 2,338
Brewha wrote:
Not the full 47% - A lot of the disabled vets don’t have picture ID’s with current address and expiration date . . . . .



So uh, where does this statistic come from? Disabled vet right here with a very current driver's license.
Mathen Offline
#10 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:36 AM EST
Joined: 05-27-2011
Posts: 2,338
rfenst wrote:
we are still at least a couple years away from beginning to see the real "light at the end of the tunnel".


This is unfortunately most likely 100% spot on regardless of who wins the election. Historically speaking, every time there has been a period of recession (well... at least for the last 500 or so years) that was caused by a financial catastrophe, the "down period" has been almost exactly as long as the bubble that preceded it. We had a seven year housing bubble, so... Got about three more years before the news actually starts getting good again.
DrMaddVibe Offline
#11 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:56 AM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,635
Polls are rigged to produce a desired effect.

That's Political Science 101.

That being said, there are a few "voices" that beat to their own drum. One in particular has been correct most of the time.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Have fun listening to the polls! It's almost as bad as listening to Sharpton & Jackson for advice!!!!horse
Brewha Offline
#12 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 9:59 AM EST
Joined: 01-25-2010
Posts: 12,207
Mathen wrote:
So uh, where does this statistic come from? Disabled vet right here with a very current driver's license.


No Statistic – I was just taking a shot at the new voter regs.
rfenst Offline
#13 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 10:11 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,490
Mathen wrote:
This is unfortunately most likely 100% spot on regardless of who wins the election. Historically speaking, every time there has been a period of recession (well... at least for the last 500 or so years) that was caused by a financial catastrophe, the "down period" has been almost exactly as long as the bubble that preceded it. We had a seven year housing bubble, so... Got about three more years before the news actually starts getting good again.


Economics is a new science. It is really only about 100-125 years old. The pre-1900 economic history is not as clear as analysts would like it to be. So, much of what is presumed about the economy pre-1900 is based on scant government records and individual business and banking records that have survived.

Interestingly, the Great Depression was not the first depression the U.S. ever suffered. There are many, many accounts and some records of wide spread depressions and recession here in the U.S. and worldwide that date back a few centuries. My point is two-fold: This is not the first terrible recession we have ever had (I personally remember the '70's Recession(s); gas price spikes and food price freeze(s) along with W.I.N. buttons from Gerald Ford which stood for Whip Inflation Now!); and I believe we will recover yet again. The issue will be how long it is going to take- which does not have a good outlook.

Anyhow, I know I keep repeating myself, but I do not believe the U.S. fully pulled itself out of the Great Depression until WWII came along. This one is going to take a long time too. Unfortunately, there is a world-wide recession/depression occurring at the same time right now, which means our recession is even worse and might get much worse. And, we cannot use our industrial capacity to get out of the recession quicker because the rest of the world isn't buying right now.

And then, there are several competing political opinions about this mess, who is responsible for it and what needs to be done to solve it.

But, again, I digress. Which Presidential Poll(s) do you consider to be unbiased?
rfenst Offline
#14 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 10:13 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,490
DrMaddVibe wrote:
Polls are rigged to produce a desired effect.

That's Political Science 101.

That being said, there are a few "voices" that beat to their own drum. One in particular has been correct most of the time.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Have fun listening to the polls! It's almost as bad as listening to Sharpton & Jackson for advice!!!!horse


Well, for once we might agree: I believe Rasmussen is likely credible.
daveincincy Offline
#15 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 10:20 AM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
I always lie to pollsters. Anxious
Mathen Offline
#16 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 10:26 AM EST
Joined: 05-27-2011
Posts: 2,338
daveincincy wrote:
I always lie to pollsters. Anxious



Pollsters never ask me anything. Like, ever


(I think I would lie to them too, just for giggles.)
snowwolf777 Offline
#17 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 10:42 AM EST
Joined: 06-03-2000
Posts: 4,082
They "normalize" and "extrapolate" for over-sampling, missing demographics, unbalanced demographics, etc. Depends on who commisions the poll, and who is conducting it (i.e., someone who makes a living doing it, or some "unofficial" organization).

All that being said, Rasmussen seems to be the most above-the-board. I watch the polls, but they're such a small piece of the puzzle in my world. I dismiss them pretty rapidly if they're conducted by any party or news organization. The questions can be skewed to skew the results.
snowwolf777 Offline
#18 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 10:43 AM EST
Joined: 06-03-2000
Posts: 4,082
Brewha wrote:
No Statistic – I was just taking a shot at the new voter regs.


Never allow facts to get in the way of a good emotional debate.
rfenst Offline
#19 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 10:45 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,490
daveincincy wrote:
I always lie to pollsters. Anxious


I am getting at least 5 and up to 10 calls per week at home and on our cells. My high school age kids even get them. Some are obviously biased from the start.
SMGBobbyScott Offline
#20 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:21 AM EST
Joined: 07-24-2012
Posts: 3,328
Gallup, Rasmussen, and CNN are usually pretty reliable...their methods are validated (sample size, sampling process, etc.), they use a very good sample size, and they don't use questions that "lead" you down a predetermined path like some other organizations do.
DrMaddVibe Offline
#21 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:25 AM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,635
SMGBobbyScott wrote:
Gallup, Rasmussen, and CNN are usually pretty reliable



Gallup? Shame on you Not talking Liar Brick wall


http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2010/07/21/gallup-caught-lying-about-the-generic-ballot-trend/
daveincincy Offline
#22 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:27 AM EST
Joined: 08-11-2006
Posts: 20,033
rfenst wrote:
I am getting at least 5 and up to 10 calls per week at home and on our cells. My high school age kids even get them. Some are obviously biased from the start.


We had some Obama minions wandering the neighborhood, going door to door, with pamphlets, etc. They were easy to spot, as they looked just like the same solicitors who try to get you to sign a petition for clean water or some chit. Anyway, I was pulling out to leave. The woman asked if my wife was home. Once I saw the Obama pin on her chest, I told her she doesn't need to bother going to the front door. She seemed a little putoff by my remark. She started walking away (seemingly to go to the next house) as I drove down the street. A few minutes later my wife calls to tell about the woman that came to the door asking if she would vote for Obama. d'oh!
ZRX1200 Offline
#23 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:28 AM EST
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,686
Validated by Jimma Carter.
DrMaddVibe Offline
#24 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:32 AM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,635
daveincincy wrote:
We had some Obama minions wandering the neighborhood, going door to door, with pamphlets, etc. They were easy to spot, as they looked just like the same solicitors who try to get you to sign a petition for clean water or some chit. Anyway, I was pulling out to leave. The woman asked if my wife was home. Once I saw the Obama pin on her chest, I told her she doesn't need to bother going to the front door. She seemed a little putoff by my remark. She started walking away (seemingly to go to the next house) as I drove down the street. A few minutes later my wife calls to tell about the woman that came to the door asking if she would vote for Obama. d'oh!



I'd LOVE to see the "minions" walk around my "neighborhood"!

Them sissyfied Cityfolk would be plum tuckered out meandering 'round the countryside...some might just not make it back to the Big City...buzzards gotta eat too!whip
DrafterX Offline
#25 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:34 AM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,601
DrMaddVibe wrote:
I'd LOVE to see the "minions" walk around my "neighborhood"!

Them sissyfied Cityfolk would be plum tuckered out meandering 'round the countryside...



they're not driving gubment Volts..?? Huh
DrMaddVibe Offline
#26 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:39 AM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,635
DrafterX wrote:
they're not driving gubment Volts..?? Huh



If you saw some of the ruts down the dirt roads...they'd be afraid they might get the car dirty!
ZRX1200 Offline
#27 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:53 AM EST
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,686
Hey don't be an inconsiderate jerk do you know how hard it is to Clean 22 inch spinner rims???
DrMaddVibe Offline
#28 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 11:57 AM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,635
ZRX1200 wrote:
Hey don't be an inconsiderate jerk do you know how hard it is to Clean 22 inch spinner rims???



Prolly a LOT longer out here in the country...seeing as how we're on wells and such...just don't have all that fancy water pressure and all.
teedubbya Offline
#29 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 12:25 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I don't trust any single poll but I do think you can look at them all and get a feel for things. I know the campaigns don't discount them entirely.
teedubbya Offline
#30 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 12:27 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
oops forgot where I was at.... I'd like to revise and extend my comments


the only truly scientific polls are the ones in here and the ones Hanity does with the callers on his radio show (if he still has one)
ZRX1200 Offline
#31 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 12:27 PM EST
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,686
My pole gets discounted in cold water........


Half off.
DrMaddVibe Offline
#32 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 12:28 PM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,635
teedubbya wrote:
I don't trust any single pole but I do think you can look at them all and get a feel for things.



And there ya have it...our Ace reporter from the bath house beat...Chip back to you and the Newsdesk crewe!Frying pan
DrMaddVibe Offline
#33 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 12:28 PM EST
Joined: 10-21-2000
Posts: 55,635
ZRX1200 wrote:
My pole gets discounted in cold water........


Half off.



SHRINKAGE OUTRAGE!
teedubbya Offline
#34 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 12:30 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I've been to the bath houses in Hot Springs. Don't knock it till you try it.
teedubbya Offline
#35 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 12:32 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
ZRX1200 wrote:
My pole gets discounted in cold water........


Half off.


at least its really not much of a discount. that is the beauty of percentages.....just like your sexlife its all relative
fiddler898 Offline
#36 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 4:43 PM EST
Joined: 06-15-2009
Posts: 3,782
538 & Nate Silver, the gold standard.
borndead1 Offline
#37 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 5:41 PM EST
Joined: 11-07-2006
Posts: 5,216
The ones that include 3rd party candidates.
jackconrad Offline
#38 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 5:46 PM EST
Joined: 06-09-2003
Posts: 67,461
"The Only Poll i trust is on Election Night "

AL GORE 2000
rfenst Offline
#39 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 6:26 PM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,490
borndead1 wrote:
The ones that include 3rd party candidates.


Are you of the opinion that a poll which is intended to show who is winning in each state, that only includes the two candidates who have real chance of winning, is biased?
borndead1 Offline
#40 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 6:30 PM EST
Joined: 11-07-2006
Posts: 5,216
rfenst wrote:
Are you of the opinion that a poll is intended to show who is winning in each state, that only includes the two candidates who have real chance of winning, is biased?



I will default to my broken record question/statement: Why aren't 3rd party candidates shown in polls or allowed in the debates? Because the whole thing is a f**king con job, that's why.
8trackdisco Offline
#41 Posted: Thu, Sep 27 2012, 8:52 PM EST
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 60,114
borndead1 wrote:
I will default to my broken record question/statement: Why aren't 3rd party candidates shown in polls or allowed in the debates? Because the whole thing is a f**king con job, that's why.


100% agree.
RWhisenand Offline
#42 Posted: Fri, Sep 28 2012, 8:57 PM EST
Joined: 01-06-2012
Posts: 49
The only pole I trust is the Las Vegas line. The bookies have skin in the game, and don't normally have a strong political affiliation.
frankj1 Offline
#43 Posted: Fri, Sep 28 2012, 9:40 PM EST
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,296
RWhisenand wrote:
The only pole I trust is the Las Vegas line. The bookies have skin in the game, and don't normally have a strong political affiliation.

so what's the Vegas line right now?
and welcome aboard.

Frank
Brewha Offline
#44 Posted: Sat, Sep 29 2012, 1:27 PM EST
Joined: 01-25-2010
Posts: 12,207
The last pole I saw in Vegas was brass . . . .
RWhisenand Offline
#45 Posted: Sat, Sep 29 2012, 10:15 PM EST
Joined: 01-06-2012
Posts: 49
frankj1 wrote:
so what's the Vegas line right now?
and welcome aboard.

Frank

Thanks for the welcome Frank, ATM I think most houses have Obama ahead. Last I checked anyway which was about a week ago.
8trackdisco Offline
#46 Posted: Sun, Sep 30 2012, 11:41 AM EST
Joined: 11-06-2004
Posts: 60,114
You can't trust any of them.

I've been exit pole interviewed twice, both times I lied about who I voted for; it is none of their damned business and I don't think I'm alone in my actions when it comes to the media.
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