tailgater wrote:https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
This is interesting data.
I had looked for this a couple months back and was unable to feret it out on the seemingly purposely confusing cdc site.
Anyway, it's obvious that we started February (where the numbers begin) on track in terms of dead people (all causes).
It spiked to weekly averages up to 40% higher than expected in April. Pretty compelling.
But what about August?
75% of expectations.
32%.
Hell, we're getting stronger!
Or maybe, if this continues we might learn that a lot of the comorbidities were real and the Covid just sped things along. Which is why we can't look at small snippets of data and form an accurate conclusion.
Yet that's what the states are doing. Massachusetts is looking at a mere 8 day rolling average. And not of people being sick. Just positive tests.
And when school starts and students get mandatory testing, who can guess what will happen to the number of positive cases?
Anyone?
Bueller?
We've got liars in our state government.
Damn liars.
And now we've got statisticians.
We're doomed.
Interesting, but I think you're trying to read too much into incomplete data. Remember, "comorbidity" isn't the dangerous word it sounds like. 98.2% of the people posting on this thread have comorbidities.... they aren't going to die next month. It seems statistically unlikely that COVID just pulled these people's deaths forward a couple months and now we're going to see lower death rates for a while. Especially since we're still losing about 1k a day due to covid.
1k a day.
Hang on.... "record scratch"...
Didn't your CDC data say there were only 2100 deaths from COVID the week of 8/22 ? Yeah, that's not accurate. Other sources show that week as still having 1k a day on average.
Also... your 32%? 370 covid deaths for the week ending 8/29? that's incorrect. Missouri had 87 Covid deaths that week, and we aren't 1/5th of the nation's cases.
I'm going to guess that data is still getting populated
edit - found this little section of the data: "Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8)."