deadeyedick
8 years ago

My suspicion is: it is becoming more one floor up and two floors down...as more nations respond to Trump's imposition of tariffs, "fears" of a trade war will become a "trade war"...

Stinger's guess looks like a winner...23,210...

Globalization is a process that America's capitalists, our largest corporations, have been primary engines of, and to a large degree, the biggest beneficiaries. To try to reverse course in the name of nationalism seems to ignore our history since the end of WWII, and fly in the face of pure capitalism.

This could be "sour grapes" on my part...took a little bath over the past few days...

delta1 wrote:



Then I assume you think totally one-sided tariffs are just fine? I believe our history since WWII has been to give much more than we get in trade and I think our balance of payments shows that clearly.
delta1
8 years ago
Tariffs haven't affected us much...here's an article about tariffs world-wide. Adam Smith, the economist/author whose philosophies are venerated by American capitalists, advocated free trade. The US economy has exceeded all other world powers in GNP since WWII...

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040115/which-countries-have-highest-tariffs.asp 
deadeyedick
8 years ago
Back up to 25000 today. With reporting season coming up things could take off either way due the (perception) of a trade war but the earnings should mostly look very good.
shaun341
8 years ago
The way this year is going I need it to gain more than 10% here for it to be at my number at the end of the year. Also would be nice to see a big bump!
shaun341
8 years ago

Tariffs haven't affected us much...here's an article about tariffs world-wide. Adam Smith, the economist/author whose philosophies are venerated by American capitalists, advocated free trade. The US economy has exceeded all other world powers in GNP since WWII...

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040115/which-countries-have-highest-tariffs.asp 

delta1 wrote:



Complete disclosure: I did not read the article you linked

I think that tariffs have affected us greatly in a country that was built on industry and now relies on other countries greatly to supply cheaper labor and materials. I feel tariffs should be equal, and maybe...just maybe we won't end up in a country where there are rich and poor only. Where Walmart won't be the only competitively priced discount store in the country and locals can build a business from the ground up without corporate America crushing their dreams.

Tariffs are not only important for us but also for all the countries that aren't powerhouses in the world. Tariffs can affect the price of an import greatly for the entire world.

Lets give incentive to industries to make their product domestically and create jobs for the people that struggle to make ends meet. Lets get back to our roots here because it was a better place when hard work meant something here.
delta1
8 years ago
Disclaimer: I'm not an economist, don't bother to keep my check book balanced and barely understand my monthly equities report, but I do pay off my credit cards every month, pay all my bills on time, pay my taxes on time, keep healthy balances in my checking and savings accts and kinda watch my equities...


I have read a few simplified articles in business publications about tariffs. If the Trump tariffs work as intended, may be ok....but there is rarely a time in the past when tariffs didn't trigger a negative reaction from the countries upon which the tariffs were imposed. They usually retaliate, and in the current case, swiftly so.

Trade wars can, and did, break out. The worst example was the US imposition of tariffs on a wide variety of imported goods in 1930...it triggered the Great Depression. That's a worst case scenario, and we are nowhere near that.

It'll take some time, a year or so, before we will know whether the tariffs have a positive or negative effect for Americans. My guess is it will help some targeted industries but, overall most Americans will pay more for goods and products because our companies won't absorb the jump in the cost of doing business if they import stuff from countries who impose their own tariffs in response to our tariffs. They won't accept a lower or no profit, so they'll either cut wages, lay people off or raise their prices...
shaun341
7 years ago
I agree that prices will probably go up because the corporations will not eat the rise in tariffs after they have established their brand. I would expect for the demand to change some as well as the price changes. We take a lot of things for granted, like having the latest Iphone that nobody can tell me how it is even different then the one they built 6 months ago but cost 10% more. We may have to pay a little more for needs instead of using more money than we should on wants, but if it were to create a ton of jobs that could boost the economy I would be all for it. It goes against just about everything they have been teaching me in business classes (which is mostly outsourcing and creating scales of economy to gain a competitive advantage) right now but I feel these books were written with agendas and are currently outdated even if they are from 2014. There is one thing that I am pretty certain of, and that is we cannot keep traveling the same path and expect there to be a blue collar and middle class in existence.
delta1
7 years ago
I see where you'd like to go, and I agree. Said another way, our current economic process is resulting in extreme income inequalities, with the average Americans, the blue collar and middle class getting screwed. If tariffs targeting specific resources and products can help American workers in those sectors of the economy and can change the existing dynamic some, that would be a good thing if the consequences aren't too severe on the rest of us. I hope you're right.
shaun341
7 years ago
I am not sure that I am right but I would like to see that we at least tried something along the way.
delta1
7 years ago
the number is getting close to its peak in January...26,157 now...
deadeyedick
7 years ago
Well, here we are in the home stretch boys and girls. As of the end of the 3rd qtr the DOW stood at 26458 up about 7.0% for the year so far. The S&P was up about 9.0%. The mid-term elections are coming up which could have some bearing on how it ends up. I'm thinking another 3% rise is a good possibility which would put it around 27500.

Here are the wild-ass guesses:

doeshin 19755
Stinger88 23210
oscar 23211
LetsRock 23456
drnos 24500
Frank1 25000
Gummy Jones 25207
JKilburn 26111
SmokeMonkey 26317
Opelmanta1900 26382
madspackler 26420
Danmdevries 26990
Jespear 27102
Ewok126 27250
ypetryna 27318
KingoftheCove 27455
Phil222 27500
Shaun341 28001
bgz 28001.50
buckwheat 28002
Palama 28340
abjd14 28375
Zitotczito 28700
Chazbo 28750
TMCTLT 29025
Firemanmike 29100
DBIII 29113
Bassman45 29410
Abrignac 29500
DED 30015 (does not count)
DrafterX 30015
Delta1 31109
corey sellers 31768
Schreiber 32980
Gumby130 34200
deadeyedick
7 years ago
Up another 193 today.
grmcooper
7 years ago
cashmoneydave
7 years ago
deadeyedick
7 years ago
You jackalopes are a little late. Entries closed about 9 months ago.=;
delta1
7 years ago
25, 598.74 ...cripes....

...terrible day, topping off a bad 4-5 days...lost more than 8% of 11% ytd gains...
deadeyedick
7 years ago
October has a history of being a downer. "Jitters about interest rates"? WTF?
gummy jones
7 years ago
if this ended today then my guess would be pretty darn good
deadeyedick
7 years ago
Iffn' a bullfrog had wings ......

Two months to go. If the mid-terms change congress things could get real ugly fast.
frankj1
7 years ago
I'm in the race by predicting flat
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