teedubbya
6 years ago
I do believe in letting people save face though and didn’t do that here.

I learned that from my neighbors dad. He was an elementary school principal, super short, and wore shorts with black socks and zipper boots. One day there was a raccoon in his garage and he went in with a golf club to get it out. You have never seen a pair of zipper boots run so fast in your life. He didn’t give it a way out. I seriously think about that a lot.

So Robert I am sorry. I won’t edit anything and you know what I think. But it’s nothing personal and we’ll get along just fine on my end.
teedubbya
6 years ago

If you really knew anything about it you would have answered my questions hours ago, and I cant help what they named it.

But I'm sure you're really important in your field. That's what is scary. You cant even answer simple questions and you're an expert! Lol! You should go work for Trump.

2 million will die! says Fauci.



RobertHively wrote:




I’m gonna stop. I see no need to get in an endless loop.

I answered some but not all of your questions because some of the questions were so fundamentally flawed they were not worth answering. It would require answering more than your question to get to why the question was irrelevant.

your impressions of doctor f’s interpretation of the various modeling and how modeling works is flawed as well but I don’t think we are accomplishing anything here.

I’m sorry I called you dumb.
RobertHively
6 years ago

I do believe in letting people save face though and didn’t do that here.

I learned that from my neighbors dad. He was an elementary school principal, super short, and wore shorts with black socks and zipper boots one day there was a raccoon in his garage and he went in with a golf club to get it out. You have never seen a pair of zipper boots run so fast in your life. He didn’t give it a way out. I seriously think about that a lot.

So Robert I am sorry. I won’t edit anything and you know what I think. But it’s nothing personal and we’ll get along just fine on my end.

teedubbya wrote:




Save face? You're the expert that cant answer simple questions about something you are supposedly well versed in. How can I even take you seriously. I never claimed to be in the health field. 5 hours later and you still haven't really said anything. You got insults but that's about it. Waste of time.
teedubbya
RobertHively
6 years ago
Novel

a : new and not resembling something formerly known or used New technologies are posing novel problems.
b : not previously identified transmission of a novel coronavirus novel bacterial strains


Coronaviruses are a group of related viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans, coronaviruses cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses include some cases of the common cold (which has other possible causes, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.


Well this one hits about as hard as RB after a 3 week bender. (Not hard for all you non health experts) I think SARS even beat it's ass...

And the testing seems questionable with it being such a Novel virus and stuff, and with all the supposed false positives. If only we had a health expert among us


tonygraz
6 years ago
Novel - (a) boring book that's longer than a short story
(b) Dunno what this stuff is and nobody done seen it before

And Frank has not made a vas deferens.
RobertHively
6 years ago

Weak Tony.

I got sh*t to do today and I'm tired from staying up til almost 2am. Lol

Stay in your bunker and hide from Common Cold-19.

Everything will be ok.
teedubbya
6 years ago
I can’t take the time to explain the various tests, who is using what or why, their accuracy (depending on test), and how it was developed or verified. It would take too long and you really don’t care.

1. There are not enough tests. Large amounts of Folks that should be tested (living and now dead) simply are not getting tested. That’s the real issue.

It is fun to pretend there are an extreme number of false positives or negatives. Absurd to think there is remotely enough of either to bridge the gap from lack of testing making them non-diagnostic. But fun in a nonsensical way.

If there were that number of false positives or false negatives (there are some for sure but not in those numbers) it would effect the death rate and/or actual counts in ways you wouldn’t expect. Ways that don’t support the over counting theory.

I do appreciate that you are being clear you are not serious and just effing around. My worry wasn’t you it was others. This thing is wicked and while you may show no symptoms carelessness can and will kill others. We have zero immunity. This is not some mass hysteria that all but a select few bought in to. There will be for sure some wrong or changing assumptions.

I do regret and apologize for my approach. This thing is not a flu and not a cold particularly to anyone with direct experience. The level of political reaction to it certainly is debatable.

I just looked it up. Guppies, Tetras, Piranahas and Barracudas are all fish. This is fun.
teedubbya
6 years ago
By the way I hear a vaccine for the common cold should drop in the next 18 months or so. [sarcasm]
Speyside
6 years ago
Not a waste of time Robert. Always look at varied opinions. Will it change your viewpoint? Prolly not. Will you be more informed? Maybe. Will you understand multiple points of view? Probably.

You clearly disagree with TW, that's fine. The numbers are frustrating. I get the idea that the economy has tanked and there are people who will die because of that for multiple reasons. I consider the idea that opening back up will cause more deaths, and the economy could tank much worse due to that. Where the balance point is I have no idea.

I tend to error on the side of caution for my family and I. Though I am fortunate in that money is not a consideration for any of us. Since there has been so little testing, I think about 3.35M or roughly 1%. My thought is infection percentage is a total unknown. Same thing for deaths. So I will continue to error on the side of caution.
opelmanta1900
6 years ago
china now admitting the numbers they reported from wuhan were way low... nearly 4,000 people killed in a matter of months... one heck of a common cold...
victor809
6 years ago
Wow... this thread got stupid for a while.
Hively... you probably should learn the difference between "overreacting" and "undercounting". These are two very different concepts which you shouldn't conflate if you're trying to be taken seriously.
You probably should read up a little on how diagnostic tests are approved for use before you start demanding answers from TW. Your very questions show you have no understanding of FDA guidelines for diagnostics (and no, I'm not going to go into it here for you either.)
You also probably shouldn't use satirical posts (such as the list of 25 things to do) as support for an argument you're trying to be taken seriously in. You essentially quoted Monty Python as evidence that horses are invisible.

Anyway..... on to the other side
TW.... you probably shouldn't apologize for calling people dumb for saying dumb things. It will make them think they should continue saying dumb things.
Also... RE the raccoon. Your teacher should have read Sun Tzu. "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard."

There. My work is done here
RobertHively
6 years ago

Wow... this thread got stupid for a while.
Hively... you probably should learn the difference between "overreacting" and "undercounting". These are two very different concepts which you shouldn't conflate if you're trying to be taken seriously.
You probably should read up a little on how diagnostic tests are approved for use before you start demanding answers from TW. Your very questions show you have no understanding of FDA guidelines for diagnostics (and no, I'm not going to go into it here for you either.)
You also probably shouldn't use satirical posts (such as the list of 25 things to do) as support for an argument you're trying to be taken seriously in. You essentially quoted Monty Python as evidence that horses are invisible.

Anyway..... on to the other side
TW.... you probably shouldn't apologize for calling people dumb for saying dumb things. It will make them think they should continue saying dumb things.
Also... RE the raccoon. Your teacher should have read Sun Tzu. "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard."

There. My work is done here

victor809 wrote:




Wait, we take each other seriously? I thought this was a discount cigar forum?

The FDA. Lol! Didnt you just scold me for using satire as a small part of my argument?







RobertHively
6 years ago

china now admitting the numbers they reported from wuhan were way low... nearly 4,000 people killed in a matter of months... one heck of a common cold...

opelmanta1900 wrote:




Of course it's worse than a common cold, but even using our inept government's numbers... influenza kills more people, thus far anyway.
RobertHively
6 years ago

I can’t take the time to explain the various tests, who is using what or why, their accuracy (depending on test), and how it was developed or verified. It would take too long and you really don’t care.

1. There are not enough tests. Large amounts of Folks that should be tested (living and now dead) simply are not getting tested. That’s the real issue.

It is fun to pretend there are an extreme number of false positives or negatives. Absurd to think there is remotely enough of either to bridge the gap from lack of testing making them non-diagnostic. But fun in a nonsensical way.

If there were that number of false positives or false negatives (there are some for sure but not in those numbers) it would effect the death rate and/or actual counts in ways you wouldn’t expect. Ways that don’t support the over counting theory.

I do appreciate that you are being clear you are not serious and just effing around. My worry wasn’t you it was others. This thing is wicked and while you may show no symptoms carelessness can and will kill others. We have zero immunity. This is not some mass hysteria that all but a select few bought in to. There will be for sure some wrong or changing assumptions.

I do regret and apologize for my approach. This thing is not a flu and not a cold particularly to anyone with direct experience. The level of political reaction to it certainly is debatable.

I just looked it up. Guppies, Tetras, Piranahas and Barracudas are all fish. This is fun.

teedubbya wrote:




Thanks for answering my question. Lol I had a few follow ups but I dont have all week.

If you get a chance, when you're not busy, PM me some links.
victor809
6 years ago

Wait, we take each other seriously? I thought this was a discount cigar forum?

The FDA. Lol! Didnt you just scold me for using satire as a small part of my argument?

RobertHively wrote:



Ah. I'm glad to see you've educated yourself enough to know more than the FDA on how to approve diagnostic tests.
Please, enlighten us on your criteria.

seriously man... when your critique of a test starts with " Does every doctor in the country agree on the validity of a test that was rushed to be manufactured" It's clear you don't even understand the science behind the developed diagnostics, the current methods for approving a diagnostic, or even what the diagnostic might do. But in your phenomenal lack of knowledge, you choose to discount the FDA?
RobertHively
6 years ago

Ah. I'm glad to see you've educated yourself enough to know more than the FDA on how to approve diagnostic tests.
Please, enlighten us on your criteria.

seriously man... when your critique of a test starts with " Does every doctor in the country agree on the validity of a test that was rushed to be manufactured" It's clear you don't even understand the science behind the developed diagnostics, the current methods for approving a diagnostic, or even what the diagnostic might do. But in your phenomenal lack of knowledge, you choose to discount the FDA?

victor809 wrote:




Why don't you break down the testing for us. The FDA is certainly a trustworthy group. I'm sure they set up the guidlines in between trying to regulate our cigars and health products.

victor809
6 years ago

Why don't you break down the testing for us. The FDA is certainly a trustworthy group. I'm sure they set up the guidlines in between trying to regulate our cigars and health products.

RobertHively wrote:



They do have guidelines. They have a very specific process for testing of drugs and diagnostics, as well as documentation manufacturers must maintain to prove both the initial testing and ongoing manufacturing compliance, and is subject to audits at any time. This used to be my career. Your dislike for their involvement in cigars and "health products" is really irrelevant to the topic at hand.

The FDA guidance for diagnostic devices is 21CFR Part 809. If you have an interest in learning what a manufacturer must do to prove that a diagnostic device is functioning properly prior to receiving approval for production, start there. I'm not going to summarize it for someone who is making decisions on a process based on the organizations involvement in banning cigars.
frankj1
6 years ago
certainly hope government doesn't try to force the issue, but wouldn't deaths from influenza be greatly diminished if society used the same methods of staying apart from others?

It seems naysayers and deniers of the severity we face are ignoring that this debatable political method has very likely kept the numbers well below what they could have been with this fast spreading virus. Seems the methods only support the dangers as opposed to being used as proof by deniers.
RobertHively
6 years ago

They do have guidelines. They have a very specific process for testing of drugs and diagnostics, as well as documentation manufacturers must maintain to prove both the initial testing and ongoing manufacturing compliance, and is subject to audits at any time. This used to be my career. Your dislike for their involvement in cigars and "health products" is really irrelevant to the topic at hand.

The FDA guidance for diagnostic devices is 21CFR Part 809. If you have an interest in learning what a manufacturer must do to prove that a diagnostic device is functioning properly prior to receiving approval for production, start there. I'm not going to summarize it for someone who is making decisions on a process based on the organizations involvement in banning cigars.

victor809 wrote:



Thanks. I'll look into it.

Yeah things they do, rules they make, make me wonder if they are trustworthy, including when it comes to regulating diagnostic testing.

Just because you have rules in place doesn't mean you follow the rules or have enough staff to enforce the rules, which leaves room for error. Maybe you get what I'm saying?

But like I said, I will read it. And I thank you for mentioning the section.

I now officially surrender. I have always wondered why you all spend hours on end in these battles, I have to say it was cathartic. Lol!
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