So, you are saying that the futures market (for any commodity really) is not a good predictor of the future of that market?
The market understands that in a few weeks, the ships from Russia with barrels of Russian oil that the current demand requires will suddenly not be arriving. As a result, they indicate that the demand is projected to be higher than the supply, and, as any third grader could predict, the price of oil goes up. Not because the barrel hitting the shores today cost any more to produce, but because the market is reacting to impending anticipated (and highly likely) shortfalls in production versus current demand.
It's not "fear mongering", it's a realstic near-term prediction.
Stogie1020 wrote: