Billy Goat round in circles?

Took the EV out for a spin this afternoon. Fun for short trips.

My friends, BOTLs, DMV,

I take a moment to share a sadness at Casa Brewha -

Today at 3:20 PM, while I was at the local park driving my car around the parking lot using my phone, I got the message:
“Summons Unavailable.”
This left the car over 15 feet away. My only choice was to walk to it. Truly pedestrian, I know.

At that moment, my one month free trial of FSD (Full Self Driving) ended. My sadness knows no bounds.

Now I am faced with ether paying eight thousand dollars for the software, of coughing up $99 a month - or else -
Yes, I will have to drive myself. Just like in the 20th century…

Only a quality single malt can give me some semblance of solace.

I was told that Europe was balls deep on EV's...what happened?







Ten years ago this week, we posted one of out most viral stories, highlighting the over-capacity in the auto industry: "Where the World's Unsold Cars Go To Die," which highlighted the 'endgame' of automakers' 'channel stuffing' efforts to disguise the sudden lack of demand for all the exciting new models that they had forecast would boom to the moon...

And now, as MishTalk's Mike Shedlock reports, we are seeing similar pictures across Europe...

"Some are parked here for a year, sometimes more."

Le Monde reports Belgium’s ports drowning under glut of Chinese electric cars: ‘Some are parked here for a year, sometimes more’

Due to China’s overcapacity in production – as it aims to capture a quarter of the European electric vehicle market – the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge are inundated.

You probably need to see it to appreciate the challenges the automobile industry faces in transitioning to electricity. You also need to come here to understand how the Chinese industry’s overcapacity has flooded the European market. That morning, as the sun unexpectedly lit up the maze of highways leading to this remote arm of the port of Antwerp, Belgium, a huge cargo ship from the Norwegian company Höegh Autoliners unloaded thousands of cars at one of the terminals of International Car Operators (ICO), a subsidiary of the Japanese group Nippon Yusen Kaisha.

Alongside Swedish-Norwegian Wallenius Wilhelmsen, it is one of the main operators of the now merged port of Antwerp-Bruges, the world’s largest automotive terminal, through which the production of some 40 brands used to transit. But that was before the emergence of their Chinese competitors.

Car Parks

Quartz reports Cars are piling up at European ports at an alarming rate

Imported vehicles are seriously piling up at European ports, turning them into “car parks.” Automakers are distributors are struggling with a slowdown in car sales as well as logistical bottlenecks that make it hard to alleviate the buildup of new, unsold vehicles.

Some Chinese brand EVs had been sitting in European ports for up to 18 months, while some ports had asked importers to provide proof of onward transport, according to industry executives. One car logistics expert said many of the unloaded vehicles were simply staying in the ports until they were sold to distributors or end users.

“It’s chaos,” said another person who had been briefed on the situation.

This is another part of the escalating trade war between China and the rest of the world.

Yesterday, I commented China Produces 55 Percent of All Steel, Biden and Trump Eye Tariffs

On April 22, I cautioned A Big Deflationary Push From China But Will Biden or Trump Allow That?

China keeps returning to a well that has run dry, using exports as a means for growth. China is about to hit a brick wall, with global consequences.

My #1 issue looking ahead to 2025 is a global trade war with serious repercussions.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/where-unsold-evs-go-die-belgiums-ports-drowning-under-glut-chinese-imports 


But hey, it's all my fault the whole EV thing isn't selling.

Artificial demand only goes so far.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has threatened Tesla with "civil penalties" if it does not comply with handing over data in connection with its December recall of Autopilot. Since then, the automaker has pushed out an over-the-air software update to prevent Autopilot misuse. However, last month, the federal agency launched a query into whether the update was sufficient.

According to Bloomberg, NHTSA published a letter on its website - addressed to Tesla Director of Field Quality Eddie Gates.

The letter demanded data on drivers, including mileage and cabin camera data racked up by drivers while using Autopilot, and the number of times drivers were warned to pay attention while using the software after the company's December recall.

NHTSA said all the data must be handed over by July 1. Tesla can submit an extension no later than five business days before the response due date. If Tesla cannot provide the requested information, the federal government will fine the company.

According to the letter, if Tesla fails to comply, it could face a fine of up to $135 million, or $27,168 per violation per day.

In December, Tesla announced its largest-ever recall covering 2 million vehicles in the US over its advanced driver assistance system. Shortly after, the automaker offered a five-part software remedy. However, after the update, the Feds were still concerned about 20 crashes.

Last month, NHTSA said, "Tesla's weak driver engagement system was not appropriate for Autopilot's permissive operating capabilities" and that this results in a "critical safety gap."

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/nhtsa-threatens-tesla-135-million-fine-if-it-fails-hand-over-autopilot-data-july-1 

Couple this with:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-lays-off-charging-car-013911289.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/is-the-affordable-new-tesla-model-2-happening-after-all-its-all-up-in-the-air-at-this-point/ar-AA1nC33x 

https://electrek.co/2024/03/14/tesla-offering-lfp-battery-retrofits-earlier-model-3-under-warranty/ [/i][/color]

What a time to be alive!*









*your expectations may vary.

I’m loving my EV!

?si=LNefLoBOSUqHeXBv

Nice thing with the EV is no more oil changes. My ICE needs an oil change right now.

My ice needs a good Speyside Scotch.

Ford is cutting battery orders in yet another sign that the EV market, despite a constant tailwind from the U.S. taxpayer, is starting to slow.

The company is cutting the orders to curb electric-vehicle losses as it scales back its EV strategy in a slowing plug-in market, according to insiders who spoke to Bloomberg.

Ford CEO Jim Farley has said the company's EV unit “is the main drag on the whole company right now" and CAT said its “cooperation with Ford is moving forward as normal”.

The company responded by saying it wouldn't comment on relationships with suppliers.

Bloomberg notes that with plummeting EV prices and weakening demand, Ford's losses per electric vehicle exceeded $100,000 in the first quarter, doubling last year's deficit.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that Ford's projected EV unit losses this year will nearly offset profits from its Ford Blue division, which produces traditional internal combustion engine vehicles like the Bronco SUV and gas-electric hybrids such as the Maverick truck.

BI analysts said of the results: “That raises questions about the prudence of investing heavily in EVs.”

Ford's order reductions highlight industry challenges as U.S. automakers face weaker-than-expected EV demand and battery makers in South Korea, China, and beyond struggle with unsold inventory.

This has affected prices for key metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, leading to multiyear lows and stalling new projects. Ford has reduced EV production costs but had to cut prices to stay competitive with Tesla.

Ford CFO John Lawler said in April: “We’ve seen prices coming down quite dramatically and that’s why we haven’t been able to keep up from a cost reduction standpoint.”

He continued: “But we’re targeting to take out as much cost this year as we can on Model e and all in the spirit of driving toward that contribution margin positive.”

He concluded: “Model e has to stand on its own. It needs to be profitable and it has to provide a return on the capital we’re investing.”

Thus, its no surprise to us (or to our readers, we're sure) why, exactly Ford is cutting back on its EV investments.

Recall we noted from the Epoch Times just days ago that on April 24, Ford reported it lost $132,000 for each of its 10,000 electric vehicles sold in the first quarter of 2024, according to CNN. The sales were down 20 percent from the first quarter of 2023 and would “drag down earnings for the company overall.”

The losses include “hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford. Those investments are years away from paying off.” Ford is the only major carmaker breaking out EV numbers by themselves. But other marques likely suffer similar losses.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bidenomics-work-ford-slashing-battery-orders-losses-ev-approach-100000 

Catch a falling government funded/fueled knife America! Serpentine!!!!

Ford needs Bob Iger to come aboard to make things right.

Too big to fail + union workers + advancing the cause = they’ll be ok.

Now, where have I heard that old "We bailed them out before" posts?

Transitioning conventional truck fleets to electric vehicles (EVs) pushes up annual operational costs, which subsequently increases economic inflation, according to a recent report from transportation and logistics firm Ryder.
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Florida-based Ryder analyzed the potential cost of transportation if internal combustion engine trucks are converted to EVs. There is a 5 percent cost increase for light-duty EVs and a 94–114 percent increase for heavy-duty trucks, the May 8 report states. For a fleet of 25 mixed vehicles—light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks—costs surge by 56–67 percent.

As transportation costs have a direct bearing on the price of goods sold in markets across the country, Ryder estimates such increases to eventually add about 0.5–1 percent to overall price inflation in the economy.

“There are specific applications where EV adoption makes sense today, but the use cases are still limited. Yet we’re facing regulations aimed at accelerating broader EV adoption when the technology and infrastructure are still developing,” said Karen Jones, executive vice president and head of new product development for Ryder.

“Until the gap in TCT [total cost to transport] for heavier duty vehicles is narrowed or closed, we cannot expect many companies to make the transition; and, if required to convert in today’s market, we face more supply chain disruptions, transportation cost increases, and additional inflationary pressure.”

In California, the annual TCT increase for a heavy-duty EV tractor was approximately $315,000, with the number rising to more than $330,000 in Georgia. In both cases, equipment costs were the biggest contributor to the increase, rising by 500 percent.

Ryder noted there were 16.4 million Class 3 to Class 8 commercial vehicles in operation in the United States, out of which only an estimated 18,000 EVs have been deployed.

“Therefore, if companies are required to convert to EVs in the near future, availability and production of EVs may be far less than the vehicles needed to run America’s supply chains,” the report states.

The report points to a statement made by Clean Freight Coalition (CFC) that there is currently no network in the United States where truck drivers can take rest breaks and charge their EV batteries at the same time.

CFC estimates that electrifying the United States’ current commercial vehicle fleet would necessitate a $1 trillion investment.

Moreover, the International Council on Clean Transportation calculates that almost 700,000 chargers will be required to accommodate the 1 million Class 4, 6, and 8 electric trucks expected to be deployed by 2030. This alone will consume 140,000 megawatts of electricity per day, which is equivalent to the daily electricity needs of roughly 5 million U.S. homes.

“Ryder’s analysis underscores the reasons EV adoption for commercial vehicles remains in its infancy. In addition to the limited support infrastructure and EV availability, the business case for converting to EV for most payload and mileage applications, is extremely challenging,” the report reads.

Robert Sanchez, chairman and CEO of Ryder, said that although the company is actively deploying EVs and charging infrastructure, it has not seen any “significant adoption” of this technology.

“For many of our customers, the business case for converting to EV technology just isn’t there yet, given the limitations of the technology and lack of sufficient charging infrastructure,” he said.
Stuttering EV Adoption

The Ryder report comes as the Biden administration announced last month that it plans to spend nearly $1.5 billion to make the U.S. freight industry “zero-emissions.”

As part of the program, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will offer $1 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act to cities and states “to replace Class 6 and Class 7 heavy-duty vehicles—which include school buses, trash trucks, and delivery trucks—with zero-emissions vehicles,” the White House said.

“Freight movement continues to represent a significant share of local air pollution, increasing the risk of asthma, heart disease, hospitalization, and other adverse health outcomes for the millions of Americans, especially overburdened communities, who live and work near highways, ports, railyards, warehouses, and other freight routes,” it stated.

The goal to transition to a zero-emissions freight sector “will prioritize actions to address air pollution hot spots and tackle the climate crisis, mobilizing a broad range of government resources, and reflect public participation and meaningful community engagement, furthering the President’s commitment to environmental justice for all.”

A recent report from consulting firm Roland Berger noted that full electrification of the U.S. commercial truck fleet would be an expensive affair. The cost of new electric trucks is twice or three times that of their diesel equivalents. A diesel Class 8 truck costs about $180,000, and a battery-electric truck costs more than $400,000.

Earlier, the EPA finalized the “strongest ever” greenhouse gas standards for heavy-duty vehicles, a move that attracted strong criticism from trucking organizations.

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association called the standards an “assault on small-business truck drivers,” who make up 96 percent of commercial motor carriers.

On April 30, Nick Nigro, the founder of Atlas Public Policy, testified at a House hearing on fleet electrification efforts, supporting such initiatives. He insisted that such a transition is crucial to protect people’s health.

“We aren’t just racing against foreign nations to lead the development of 21st-century vehicle technology,“ he said. ”We’re also in a race to mitigate the worst effects of climate change on the planet and tailpipe pollution on human health.”

The American Lung Association estimates that transitioning to zero-emission trucks could result in $735 billion in public health benefits by 2050, he noted.

In his testimony at the hearing, Taki Darakos, the vice president of vehicle maintenance and fleet service at PITT OHIO, raised concerns about the high costs involved in electrifying fleets.

The upfront costs of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) “are much higher than their diesel equivalent, making it difficult for fleets to embrace electrification until they see meaningful year-over-year upfront purchase price declines.”

The company incorporated some EVs in its fleet, and Mr. Darakos said: “Increased vehicle weight from the batteries reduced our payload and limited our usage of haul. These limitations have impacted the company’s timeline on how and when to transition to ZEV.”

The American Transportation Research Institute estimated that electrifying the entire vehicle fleet in the United States will consume 40 percent of the United States’ existing electricity generation while requiring a 14 percent overall increase in energy generation.

“Yet our aging grid can hardly meet current demands,“ Mr. Darakos said. ”In California, where rolling blackouts and brownouts are not uncommon, utilities would need to generate an additional 57 percent beyond their current output to support an electric vehicle fleet.”

He pointed out that a truck driver can refuel a new diesel truck within 15 minutes for a journey of up to 1,200 miles. However, charging an EV truck for two hours provides a range of only about 200 miles.


Rising prices at the marketplace...now who knew?

^ That’s a start, but there are many other problems not addressed by this article. A glaring omission is the additional downtime as a result of extended charging time. Also, many more trucks and drivers would be needed to move the same amount of freight in the same amount of time as compared to today’s state of the system.

All things considered I’m willing to bet the actual cost to move freight would increase by at least 400% or greater.

I wonder how much freight could be moved if the truck had a battery bank large enough to allow the truck to trave 8 hours between charges? Eight hours being the maximum a driver can drive without taking a break. Would it reduce the total freight payload by 20-40% due to added battery weight?

Another problem is diminished charge capacity in cold weather. I guess anyone living north of I-20 can look forward to food shortages form at least the beginning of November through the end of February.

How much will it cost to get the power grid to acceptable standards? Billions, I’m sure. And that expenditure will delay the upgrades that the grid sorely needs.

Here’s another gotcha. On average Tesla batteries make up 35% of the over weight of the vehicle and are good for say 300 miles between charges. A big rig needs to go 500 miles between charges to meet current capabilities of a diesel rig. So theoretically it would need 2000 pounds of batteries vs the current 1200 pounds for a model S that weights about 3500 pounds. So in reality to get the needed capacity the batteries would make up 57% of the total Gross vehicle weight.

Interesting considering the weight of a class 8 tractor is about 32,000 pounds. If capacity scales linearly then that truck would need 18,250 pounds of batteries based on ZERO reduced cold weather capacity. The diesel used to power it only weighs about 1300 pounds. Obviously there is a difference in weight of the diesel engine vs the electric engine, but 17000 pounds. I doubt it. So freight capacity would be reduced which means more trucks on the road to move the same amount of freight.

The idea of electric powered class 8 trucks replacing diesel powered ones are little more than pie in the sky at the present.