Let me play Devil's Advocate:
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Started in Mexico. Affects mostly teens (no one over 65). Kills some, but not much more than the regular flu (which kills 14,000 Americans per year).
so, i start to think more and more about it as Japanese people panic to this "pandemic". Why almost only teenagers?
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From what I have seen, it does not discriminate. The people who have died here in Amerika were not teenagers.
Plus, it seems to be very mild. It has been reported that the CDC is having a hard time following the course of the sickness because some people barely know they're sick.
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and then it hit me...what if THIS is a trial run. I read that it looks like a laboratory escape. What if it was released on citizens of Mexico and "they" are recording who it affects and how it moves. It is not very fatal, but enough to get the press coverage
necessary for data collection.
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The number of people who have dies from this has been fairly small. Initial reports of 150 people dying from this in Mexico were incorrect. It ended up being only 7 people. As it stand as of 5/17/2009, only 75 people have died because of this version of Swine Flu, most of those in Mexico. And I'll bet that this virus is WAY more widespread down there than is being reported.
As for why Mexico, that's not all that hard to figure out. It isn't a place known for high standards of hygiene, and you can buy antibiotics there off the shelf, no doctor's script. Overuse of antibiotics can lead to resistant strains of other diseases, which may also be partially to blame for the deaths attributed to Swine Flu. Plus, they don't exactly have the same standards of health care or reporting as we do here in the US.
Furthermore, places like Mexico City have some of the highest populations of people crammed into a single city space. Close living conditions, bad sanitation, and an anemic health care system make a viral outbreak very feasible.
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No one knows how it got to Japan--the first case is said not to have traveled. this may mean that some people can carry the virus without getting the effects...and this reinforces the theory that it is tailored to one group--teenagers.
Why teenagers? great question. well, they are strong enough to fight the disease, so fatalities would be down..........and then it hit me.........when we are fighting wars, who do you want to eliminate? fighting-age men. Amp up the age a tad and kill all males 16-35...a perfect weapon.
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Most viruses can take up to two weeks to incubate before symptoms start to appear. Because Mexico, these days, is in the manufacturing chain for automotive production, it is very possible that people traveling back and forth to Mexico on business could have EASILY brought it back to Japan.
As for teenagers, from what I've heard ot read, this flu is not transmitted via the air. The most common airborn method it when you cough or sneeze, your bodily fluids create a fine aresol that can be inhaled by people around you. Once a viable virus makes it into the thinner tissues of the nose or throat, it xcan attack the body. Much of this depends on how viable a virus is in these conditions. Supposedly, this virus is quite weak, and required fluid transmission of some sort - mainly siliva.
Teenagers pretty frequently swap spit, being the horny little devils they are. So there's your infection vector.
And again, the death rates for this virus are thus far very, very small. So, I'm having a real hard time thinking that this is a military dry run.