After seeing a dip in imports in the October report for the first time in 10 months, cigar imports to the U.S. roared back in the November report, up a staggering 30.4% over the November 2003 figures.
The Cigar Association of America reported that 31.57 million premium, handmade cigars came into the U.S. market in November, compared to 24.21 million in 2003. That brings the year-to-date totals to their highest level since the end of the Cigar Boom in 1998 at 279.25 million for 2004, already surpassing the 2003 all-year total of 274.32 million.
For 2004, then, with just a modest December report, imports will surpass 300 million units for only the third time in the last 30-plus years.
And, despite the pressure from regulators and anti-tobacco legislatures, only the Cigar Boom years of 1997 and 1998 will exceed the 2004 totals. It’s an amazing achievement, especially when you consider that imports did not exceed 100 million on a consistent basis since 1994.
Despite this, we think it unlikely that substantial pressure on cigars per se will be exerted because the spate of laws prohibiting smoking in public in so many states and localities removes cigars – much more noticeable than cigarettes – from public view and therefore from a level of public attention which cigars reached consistently in the boom times of the late 1990s. It may be the only positive aspect of the anti-tobacco laws yet unearthed for cigar smokers.
While cigar imports were going through the roof, prices were holding steady. Of the “big three” exporting nations, the Dominican Republic remained dominant, with nearly two-thirds of the total imports and prices increased only one percent – an average of 93.9 cents each against 92.9 cents in 2003.
Honduran imports accounts for 26.5% of the total and were much less expensive on average, costing just 74.8 cents each this year. That’s essentially the same as last year’s average value of 74.5 cents each.
Nicaraguan imports totaled 4.28 million in November, or 13.6% of the total. The average value of a cigar imported from Nicaragua actually dropped in 2004 against 2003, falling from an average of 53.3 cents last year to just 51.6 cents this year. No wonder there are so many bargains in Nicaraguan handmades!
What about the U.S.? American exports of large cigars totaled 12.73 million in November 2003, mostly machine-made. More than a third of the total went to China and about a quarter went to Canada. For the year, exports are up 42% (!) to 160.6 million. The average value per cigar of our exports – remember, they’re machine made – a modest 13 cents.
