FGM, I'm a huge baseball fan. I watch and study it every day and have been a Braves fan since the Murphy/Horner days back when they sucked.
I honestly think you have a shot, but it's going to be tough. St. Louis is playing well and will be hard to keep from taking the division. For that matter, I have a feeling the Phillies are going to overtake the Braves within the next week. If you have to fight for the Wild Card you're in for the fight of your life with the Braves or Phillies and Giants.
The Red's line-up is scary. Votto is crazy good. I compare him to Adrian Gonzalez - when he comes to the plate I cringe. You need to bolster the starting rotation and bullpen. Cueto is a stud. This kid could throw a no-hitter at any time, but he can't do it by himself. (I think he's on the mound today against the Braves). Arroyo tends to fade in August and September - if he does you're done.
Yes, you have a shot, but you'd better continue to hit HRs and score a ton of runs down the stretch.
My $0.02. I wish you bad luck in the weekend series though. : )