rfenst
  • rfenst
  • Herf-A-Holic Topic Starter
13 years ago
There are claims of polling bias heating up (as usual)- wondering which you consider unbiased (and accurate if any)...
DrafterX
13 years ago
Fox is Fair & Balanced.... 😟
victor809
13 years ago
7-11's Coffee cup poll.

Apparently in past years it has tracked very close to national levels.
HockeyDad
13 years ago
In Obama's upcoming recession, the polls will not matter.



(Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods dropped sharply in August suggesting the main engine of economic growth was stalling, offsetting hopeful signs of an improvement in the labor market.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. That primarily reflected weak aircraft and automobiles demand, although orders for a wide range of goods also fell.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders for durable goods -- items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years -- to fall 5 percent.

The sharp drop underscored the weakness in the economy, whose growth pace in the second-quarter was cut down to a 1.3 percent annual pace from 1.7 percent, mainly because of a drought in the Midwest, and dimmed hopes of a pick-up in activity.

"It just shows the manufacturing side of the economy continues to labor here, and in fact, contract. Orders are so critical to what is ahead," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.
Brewha
13 years ago
PBS – because they are a liberal rag . . . .
daveincincy
13 years ago
At least 47% will vote for Obama regardless of the economic situation....but that number could drop by as much as 25% (possibly more) if the weather is bad.
Brewha
13 years ago
Not the full 47% - A lot of the disabled vets don’t have picture ID’s with current address and expiration date . . . . .
rfenst
  • rfenst
  • Herf-A-Holic Topic Starter
13 years ago

In Obama's upcoming recession, the polls will not matter.



(Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods dropped sharply in August suggesting the main engine of economic growth was stalling, offsetting hopeful signs of an improvement in the labor market.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. That primarily reflected weak aircraft and automobiles demand, although orders for a wide range of goods also fell.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders for durable goods -- items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years -- to fall 5 percent.

The sharp drop underscored the weakness in the economy, whose growth pace in the second-quarter was cut down to a 1.3 percent annual pace from 1.7 percent, mainly because of a drought in the Midwest, and dimmed hopes of a pick-up in activity.

"It just shows the manufacturing side of the economy continues to labor here, and in fact, contract. Orders are so critical to what is ahead," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

HockeyDad wrote:



Not in the least but surprising to me. The political question that arises is whether Obama can escape this/whether Romney will be able to pin it on Obama.

Yesterday's labor analysis from UCF indicated that employers are increasingly offering labor assignments employment with no benefits and no guarantee of continuing work at the completion of a task or time period) as opposed to traditional jobs (full time with benefits). But, short-term/part-time hiring forecasts for the holidays are greater than what was expected. Housing starts are up. and, we are still at least a couple years away from beginning to see the real "light at the end of the tunnel". Weaker than expected new jobs was blamed both on uncertain economics and election uncertainty...

But, I digress. Which poll do you think is unbiased?
Mathen
13 years ago

Not the full 47% - A lot of the disabled vets don’t have picture ID’s with current address and expiration date . . . . .

Brewha wrote:




So uh, where does this statistic come from? Disabled vet right here with a very current driver's license.
Mathen
13 years ago

we are still at least a couple years away from beginning to see the real "light at the end of the tunnel".

rfenst wrote:



This is unfortunately most likely 100% spot on regardless of who wins the election. Historically speaking, every time there has been a period of recession (well... at least for the last 500 or so years) that was caused by a financial catastrophe, the "down period" has been almost exactly as long as the bubble that preceded it. We had a seven year housing bubble, so... Got about three more years before the news actually starts getting good again.
DrMaddVibe
13 years ago
Polls are rigged to produce a desired effect.

That's Political Science 101.

That being said, there are a few "voices" that beat to their own drum. One in particular has been correct most of the time.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ 

Have fun listening to the polls! It's almost as bad as listening to Sharpton & Jackson for advice!!!!🐴
Brewha
13 years ago

So uh, where does this statistic come from? Disabled vet right here with a very current driver's license.

Mathen wrote:



No Statistic – I was just taking a shot at the new voter regs.
rfenst
  • rfenst
  • Herf-A-Holic Topic Starter
13 years ago

This is unfortunately most likely 100% spot on regardless of who wins the election. Historically speaking, every time there has been a period of recession (well... at least for the last 500 or so years) that was caused by a financial catastrophe, the "down period" has been almost exactly as long as the bubble that preceded it. We had a seven year housing bubble, so... Got about three more years before the news actually starts getting good again.

Mathen wrote:



Economics is a new science. It is really only about 100-125 years old. The pre-1900 economic history is not as clear as analysts would like it to be. So, much of what is presumed about the economy pre-1900 is based on scant government records and individual business and banking records that have survived.

Interestingly, the Great Depression was not the first depression the U.S. ever suffered. There are many, many accounts and some records of wide spread depressions and recession here in the U.S. and worldwide that date back a few centuries. My point is two-fold: This is not the first terrible recession we have ever had (I personally remember the '70's Recession(s); gas price spikes and food price freeze(s) along with W.I.N. buttons from Gerald Ford which stood for Whip Inflation Now!); and I believe we will recover yet again. The issue will be how long it is going to take- which does not have a good outlook.

Anyhow, I know I keep repeating myself, but I do not believe the U.S. fully pulled itself out of the Great Depression until WWII came along. This one is going to take a long time too. Unfortunately, there is a world-wide recession/depression occurring at the same time right now, which means our recession is even worse and might get much worse. And, we cannot use our industrial capacity to get out of the recession quicker because the rest of the world isn't buying right now.

And then, there are several competing political opinions about this mess, who is responsible for it and what needs to be done to solve it.

But, again, I digress. Which Presidential Poll(s) do you consider to be unbiased?
rfenst
  • rfenst
  • Herf-A-Holic Topic Starter
13 years ago

Polls are rigged to produce a desired effect.

That's Political Science 101.

That being said, there are a few "voices" that beat to their own drum. One in particular has been correct most of the time.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ 

Have fun listening to the polls! It's almost as bad as listening to Sharpton & Jackson for advice!!!!🐴

DrMaddVibe wrote:



Well, for once we might agree: I believe Rasmussen is likely credible.
daveincincy
13 years ago
I always lie to pollsters. 😰
Mathen
13 years ago

I always lie to pollsters. 😰

daveincincy wrote:




Pollsters never ask me anything. Like, ever


(I think I would lie to them too, just for giggles.)
snowwolf777
13 years ago
They "normalize" and "extrapolate" for over-sampling, missing demographics, unbalanced demographics, etc. Depends on who commisions the poll, and who is conducting it (i.e., someone who makes a living doing it, or some "unofficial" organization).

All that being said, Rasmussen seems to be the most above-the-board. I watch the polls, but they're such a small piece of the puzzle in my world. I dismiss them pretty rapidly if they're conducted by any party or news organization. The questions can be skewed to skew the results.
snowwolf777
13 years ago

No Statistic – I was just taking a shot at the new voter regs.

Brewha wrote:



Never allow facts to get in the way of a good emotional debate.
rfenst
  • rfenst
  • Herf-A-Holic Topic Starter
13 years ago

I always lie to pollsters. 😰

daveincincy wrote:



I am getting at least 5 and up to 10 calls per week at home and on our cells. My high school age kids even get them. Some are obviously biased from the start.
SMGBobbyScott
13 years ago
Gallup, Rasmussen, and CNN are usually pretty reliable...their methods are validated (sample size, sampling process, etc.), they use a very good sample size, and they don't use questions that "lead" you down a predetermined path like some other organizations do.
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