One Iranian Miscalculation After Another
The Tehran regime pays the price for underestimating Netanyahu and Trump.
WSJ Editorial Board
Strikes continue in waves, but Israel has already pulled off against Iran’s military what it did to Hezbollah in September: a decapitation. Nearly the entire top echelon of Iran’s army and Revolutionary Guard has been killed, and the longer Iran takes to regroup the more of its ballistic-missile and nuclear programs it loses.
“There are no free wars,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Israelis on Friday, and Iran has landed a few missiles out of the many it fired at Israeli cities. But a series of mistakes has led Iran to the catastrophic scenario it has long sought to avoid: open war with Israel without the aid of proxies and before obtaining nuclear weapons.
How did Tehran miscalculate so badly? For months President Trump made clear that he wanted to avoid a military confrontation and make a nuclear deal. He all but begged the regime to come to terms, and his envoy Steve Witkoff made a generous offer—too generous—that would have let Iran continue enriching uranium domestically for some years.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed it out of hand. “Who are you to decide whether Iran should have enrichment?” he asked. The Iranians evidently thought they would pay no price for blowing past the President’s 60-day ultimatum and his red line on nuclear enrichment. So long as they kept talking, they presumed they could string along Mr. Trump, who would shield them from Israel.
Did they think Tucker Carlson called the shots and the U.S. would roll over each time it was pushed? On deadline day Iran said it would begin enrichment at a secret site, another Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty violation.
Tehran underestimated Mr. Trump, who knew Israel’s plan but declined to expose or block it. Democrats now criticize him for that, and a different President may well have prevented Israel’s campaign to eliminate the Iranian sword of Damocles that looms over its head and ours. Instead Mr. Trump kept a flexible enough posture to embrace the attack after its early success.
The Iranians also underestimated Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose bet on Mr. Trump has paid off. After direct ballistic-missile attacks on Israel in April and October 2024 were parried, Mr. Netanyahu didn’t “take the win,” as President Biden advised. He knocked out Iran’s key air defenses, creating a window for today’s air campaign with Mr. Trump in power.
That unforced Iranian error served as a practice run for Israel’s air force, as did all the missions against the Houthis. Was it worth it, for Iran, to have its Yemeni proxy send Israelis to bomb shelters but hit nothing?
Hezbollah, with its enormous Iranian arsenal, was long supposed to be Iran’s insurance policy. Were Israel to strike the nuclear program, Iran’s Lebanese proxy would rain missiles on Tel Aviv. Instead Hezbollah fired at empty towns in northern Israel for 10 months after Oct. 7, 2023, until Mr. Netanyahu crushed it. Hezbollah is in no position now to help Iran to fight or deter Israel.
The Middle East war Iran started is becoming an historic defeat. What began in the south of Israel with Hamas death squads—funded, armed and trained by Iran—is ending in Tehran, Natanz, Isfahan and, we hope, Fordow. Destroying the latter enrichment facility underneath a mountain likely requires U.S. planes, but leaving it intact would be a mistake, akin to putting out only half a fire.
Mr. Trump says Iran has a last chance for a deal, so how about this? Dismantle Fordow and the rest of the enrichment program right now or lose them, and much more, by force. Iran doesn’t hold the cards here, and its leaders would be wise to take such a deal. But if history is a guide, they will refuse and suffer more defeats.
