tonygraz
6 years ago
I never met my paternal grandfather as he died in he "Spanish" flu, leaving my 13 year old father at the head of a large family.
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USNGunner
6 years ago

I never met my paternal grandfather as he died in he "Spanish" flu, leaving my 13 year old father at the head of a large family.

tonygraz wrote:



Which actually started here and the army took with them to Europe. That is a really interesting while horrifying story worth reading about.
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KingoftheCove
6 years ago

I'll admit where I'm wrong. It will be worse than I initially expected. I think I was guessing 5k dead, no more than 10k.
It's looking like it will be worse than that. But I don't think it's gotten bad.
I suppose I should put a number on "bad". We have 333MM people. I'd define "bad" as maybe 300k dead, 3MM permanently damaged by lung scarring. About 0.1% of the population dead, 1% of the population scarred. At that level, there will still be people who don't know anyone who died of the virus.

We survived the Spanish flu of 1918 with 0.5% of the population dying, and almost no one talked about it in our lifetimes... until we got another pandemic.

So, what do you define as "bad"?

victor809 wrote:


Well, to be honest, back in January, for some reason (ignorance and being out of the loop for many years), I had an inflated opinion of “our” abilities to address this, and I figured, unless chit really went sideways, we’d easily keep the death toll under 3,000, and squash the virus.

Then I started seeing the numbers, the etiology, anecdotal evidence of Chinese shenanigans..............that’s when I put up my first post Feb 11.

I guess I’d have to say the situation we’re in now is bad.
And if I have to play prognosticator, the situation we will be in by the end of April will be MUCH worse.....
UNLESS....
We as a nation just stay the fuq at home for the entire month of April.......
OR....
We catch a break via a decent therapy or the virus mutates into a less virulent structure.

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victor809
6 years ago

Well, to be honest, back in January, for some reason (ignorance and being out of the loop for many years), I had an inflated opinion of “our” abilities to address this, and I figured, unless chit really went sideways, we’d easily keep the death toll under 3,000, and squash the virus.

Then I started seeing the numbers, the etiology, anecdotal evidence of Chinese shenanigans..............that’s when I put up my first post Feb 11.

I guess I’d have to say the situation we’re in now is bad.
And if I have to play prognosticator, the situation we will be in by the end of April will be MUCH worse.....
UNLESS....
We as a nation just stay the fuq at home for the entire month of April.......
OR....
We catch a break via a decent therapy or the virus mutates into a less virulent structure.

KingoftheCove wrote:



Definitely don't disagree that it will get significantly worse between now and end of April. I think we just have different definitions of "bad".

I think the "hording toilet paper and prepping in a bunker behind barbed wire" is a bit premature until we've lost at least a full single digit percentage point of our population. Our country has lost people without resorting to anarchy, we can do it again.

I was looking at some fun graphs showing a second "peak" that pops up after you clear the first one... essentially a re-infection peak about 1/4 of the height of the first.. so whenever we finally cross this peak (still hasn't happened) we'll have another to look forward to after we get through the first.

This virus is good at spreading. The high percentage of people who can be infected and asymptomatic allowed it to get all around the country before we did anything. Combine that with our shortage of test kits, which caused a "you can't get a test without showing symptoms" policy, which ensured we'd have a number of infected go completely undetected during the critical time for containment.

We failed at containment... utterly and completely.
We're now at the stage where we're watching the mortality catch up with the infection rate.... which is interesting in and of itself.
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victor809
6 years ago
On the up-side there's some porn star who says she'll sex up whoever discovers the cure....

Kinda wish I'd stuck with biochem now.
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frankj1
6 years ago

On the up-side there's some porn star who says she'll sex up whoever discovers the cure....

Kinda wish I'd stuck with biochem now.

victor809 wrote:


so that's why Trump was touting those drugs!
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victor809
6 years ago

so that's why Trump was touting those drugs!

frankj1 wrote:



I hear pudding's trying to take credit for them too. He's determined to get a piece of that porn star ass.
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opelmanta1900
6 years ago



I think the "hording toilet paper and prepping in a bunker behind barbed wire" is a bit premature until we've lost at least a full single digit percentage point of our population.

victor809 wrote:


Tin foil underwear is a go though, right?
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victor809
6 years ago

Tin foil underwear is a go though, right?

opelmanta1900 wrote:



tin foil underwear was a go before the first coronavirus patients sniffled.
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KingoftheCove
6 years ago
Not bad until we’ve “lost at least a full single digit percentage point of the population”...........??
Hmmm......losing 1% would mean 3.5 million dead.....

Yeah, we definitely have a different opinion of bad.
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teedubbya
6 years ago
The death rate data lags but will catch up
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victor809
6 years ago

Not bad until we’ve “lost at least a full single digit percentage point of the population”...........??
Hmmm......losing 1% would mean 3.5 million dead.....

Yeah, we definitely have a different opinion of bad.

KingoftheCove wrote:



My "bad" is 0.1% dead.
My "hoard toilet paper and put up barb wire bad" is 1% dead.

(as with everything, one should moderate the response)

I was just surprised to see half the country jump to "hoard toilet paper etc..." already
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delta1
6 years ago
don't think we'll see your "bad" victor...the mortality rate of this virus is too low...
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CelticBomber
6 years ago

The Chicoms lying? Whaaaauuuuuutttttt!? Yeah, Iran as well. The mass graves are visible by satellite.

A friend of mine pointed me at Oregano oil. He's been using it when ever he gets a sore throat or thinks a cold is coming on and says it really really works for him.

It's supposed to help stimulate the immune system. There is also a study from a Holistic Medical site that was done in 2003 with SARS that looks like it stops the viral reproduction.

https://holisticprimarycare.net/topics/topics-h-n/infectious-disease/117-oregano-oil-proves-effective-against-coronavirus.html 

Invulnerable? Nope. But the wife and I are taking it every morning. I figure why the hell not? Worst case I'm out $20 for the bottle of oil. I'm all for hedging my bets. Especially given where I work and being essential and all. ](*,)

USNGunner wrote:




So, when the food runs out I know what I'm doing. I have your address and I know you're already seasoned!
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CelticBomber
6 years ago
I saw an international news report that is claiming China is already experiencing a Second Wave of infections. It's gotta be really bad over there and we'll never know just how bad....
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USNGunner
6 years ago

So, when the food runs out I know what I'm doing. I have your address and I know you're already seasoned!

CelticBomber wrote:



And half pickled with all the bourbon I'll be drinking. :D
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CelticBomber
6 years ago

And half pickled with all the bourbon I'll be drinking. :D

USNGunner wrote:




I do love a good marinade!
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victor809
6 years ago

I'll admit where I'm wrong. It will be worse than I initially expected. I think I was guessing 5k dead, no more than 10k.
It's looking like it will be worse than that. But I don't think it's gotten bad.
I suppose I should put a number on "bad". We have 333MM people. I'd define "bad" as maybe 300k dead, 3MM permanently damaged by lung scarring. About 0.1% of the population dead, 1% of the population scarred. At that level, there will still be people who don't know anyone who died of the virus.

We survived the Spanish flu of 1918 with 0.5% of the population dying, and almost no one talked about it in our lifetimes... until we got another pandemic.

So, what do you define as "bad"?

victor809 wrote:



So... I'll admit where I'm wrong.
I think Kingofthecove was right here.

Right now... after social distancing and whatnot for a month or so, we're at essentially 1MM cases and 50k+ dead (probably a good number more).

If we had no social distancing, I have no doubt we could have easily topped 150k dead at this point (easily... and I suspect much higher). And we aren't on the downward slope at this point. We would be even further from the downward slope without the measures we took.

I think if we didn't do anything, this would have been a bad pandemic, by my standards... KotC was right when he was calling this one like 60 days ago or whenever
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delta1
6 years ago
the social distancing measures are just extending the number of deaths over a longer period of time...we'll continue to see a steady number of fatalities over the next month or so, as the virus completes its spread over the country...take a look at the John Hopkins University virus site and look at the graphs/maps of the spread over time...few red zones at the start...most of the country in red now...

with the clamor to re-open and doing so without proper safety precautions we'll see an uptick, but the majority of people are afraid, especially older folks with health conditions and parents with kids, so most of them will stay in lock-down mode
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teedubbya
6 years ago
It is all about managing the workloads trying not to overwhelm local health care systems and hopefully improving outcomes. That's what's funny about the automobile accident screaming chimps. Try having them all at once let alone having the idiot drivers drive in to masses of people that are not in cars.

In the end I still don't know the end game. it seems to me like most people need to get sick at some point. the vaccine would be one good end point but we are acting like it is a certainty. we don't know for sure how long it will take, its efficacy or even if our own antibodies provide immunity. Combine that with once the vaccine is developed how is it mass produced and distributed (hopefully better than the tests?)

I'm not smart enough to see a good way out. I think the path that has been laid out is about as good as it gets and the states or localities not following it are playing with fire.... especially since their economy isn't in a vacuum and relies on others.

This thing is going to eff things up for a long time. The immediate gratification crowd is going to be disappointed.
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