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tailgater
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#121

Though herd immunity is probable, at this point assuming there will be here immunity has no data to back it. Also we do not have data to suggest how effective immunity will be, and how long immunity will last.

Speyside wrote:

Effectiveness is the key here.
You're right, it won't matter if it's not effective.
But the same will be true for any vaccine or treatment or cure.

So we remain in lockdown until the vaccine is proven to be effective. Or we assume that herd immunity will at least minimize the spread or impact of the virus.

The only reason herd immunity is viewed with jaundice is because it doesn't fit the current narrative.

tailgater
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#122

Aren’t cruise ships full of old people with pre-existing conditions which would skew the numbers upward?

HockeyDad wrote:

You don't understand the maths.

victor809
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#123

We can stop right there.

If you want to have a discussion, or want people to read what you type, you'd be wise to refrain from such inaccuracies, or at least add them to the end of your drivel.

tailgater wrote:

Based on your statements it is not an "inaccuracy".
You simply don't understand numbers.

you can stop reading after that statement, but I gave you the specific math necessary to estimate how close they are to herd immunity. They are not close. And if you were smart enough to work the numbers backwards you can easily estimate what it would take to reach herd immunity. You essentially have to be willing to kill off .72% of your population. And have potential lifelong disability of another possibly 6% of your population (this rate is not locked in, people are still trying to figure out this exact number).

If you don't want to be told you don't understand numbers, don't make stupid statements that indicate you don't understand numbers.

victor809
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#124

Aren’t cruise ships full of old people with pre-existing conditions which would skew the numbers upward?

HockeyDad wrote:

That would depend on the cruise ship. Some are full of young people having sex with the staff.
The death rate at that cruise ship has been consistent with countries with high testing rates, less than countries with low testing (such as US, where we test poorly and are seeing like a 5.75% death rate).

But that's why I approached the problem using two different measurements. If you want to ignore the fatality rate measurement, then feel free to apply the asymptomatic measurement, which suggests 50% asymptomatic and therefore that Sweden is at a infection level of 0.4% of their population.

Either way the two numbers are within an order of magnitude...

victor809
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#125

The only reason herd immunity is viewed with jaundice is because it doesn't fit the current narrative.

tailgater wrote:

Dude.
Again you prove you have no grasp on numbers.

I'd be totally fine with herd immunity. That's probably the best way to go, I personally think.

Are you dumb enough to think our society would be able to handle it though?

I see people whine on here about their extended family being sick and needing prayers and bullschit like that. What do you think would happen if we actually allowed enough people to get sick/die to achieve herd immunity.

What number of people would you estimate need to die to achieve herd immunity? I'm curious, because I don't think you actually know that number.

delta1
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#126

330 million peeps in US...experts say 60-70% infection rate would get us to herd immunity...are those the starting numbers we agree on?

what are the odds Trump has the will to invoke the Defense Production Act to make that many body bags?

Edited by user 6 years ago | Reason: Not specified

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#127

We prolly already have enough stockpiled.

victor809
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#128

delta1 wrote:

That's our starting numbers... and we would roll out the 1-2% lethality (should be closer to 1%, but if we're going to go all in on this the rate will probably cause a higher death rate, so 2% is probably accurate)....

What's 2% of 60% of 330MM?

(hint.... it's 4MM)

That's my estimated cost for herd immunity. I'm fine with that cost. But we all know I don't like people.
And that's just the people who die. Not the people who survive with the apparent heart and lung damage (which is apparently a larger percentage than the lethality). Those people will have to have medical care the rest of their lives.

I don't know the financial numbers behind a random 4MM culling of our population and an additional medical support for probably 10-20MM.... I don't know if that costs more or less than 30MM losing their jobs. I don't honestly care, as the first option reduces our population more, which I'm a fan of.

But, I have serious doubts that most people here will have the stomach for it when it's their extended families. They'll whine and complain on here about us needing to pray for them or their parents or brother's father's uncle or some crap like that.

delta1
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#129

We prolly already have enough stockpiled.

HockeyDad wrote:

okay...let's roll...

think the GOP will be on-board because the majority of dead people, to this point in the pandemic in the US, are poor minority elderly people who live in Dem states...they'd prolly like a higher lethality rate..

Edited by user 6 years ago | Reason: Not specified

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#130

delta1 wrote:

Glass half full!?

Funny thing will be watching the Democrats pretend they actually care about those people.

Edited by user 6 years ago | Reason: Not specified

MACS
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#131

It's the young millenial dipsh*ts who think money grows out Uncle Sam's ass and vote socialist... not the old folks. They're pretty much split. Too dangerous to kill 'em off... ya never know which way they vote until they're dead and they show up on the Dem rolls.

tonygraz
Herf-A-Holic

6 years ago

#132

I see you buy the conspiracy theory of the Repubs. Really its all a smokescreen while they make it harder to vote and throw iout some ballots. If you buy that BS, then they tell you the Dems are tax and spend and fail to mention that they spend and spend while cutting taxes for themselves.