Biden, Putin Warn of Danger to Relations if Crisis Over Ukraine Escalates
Moscow has built up troops near Ukraine and issued demands to NATO and the U.S.
WSJ
President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin warned each other of the potential for a dangerous downturn in relations if the current crisis over Ukraine further escalates, but kept a pathway open for diplomacy.
In a 50-minute conference call Thursday, Mr. Biden renewed a warning to Mr. Putin that Russia would face punishing economic sanctions if Moscow turned away from diplomacy and attacked Ukraine, a senior U.S. official said.
Mr. Putin countered that such action would lead to a dangerous rupture in ties between the two countries, a Putin foreign-policy aide said.
“Our president immediately responded, saying that if the West decides ultimately under whatever conditions to introduce such unprecedented sanctions, it could lead to the total breakdown in relations between our countries,” Yuri Ushakov told reporters.
Thursday’s call came at what a senior Biden administration official described as a “moment of crisis” over Ukraine. Mr. Putin requested the call, giving him a chance to speak directly with Mr. Biden before their negotiators meet for a series of talks next month. It was the second time they talked about Ukraine this month, the previous being a two-hour call on Dec. 7.
Since the fall, Mr. Putin has ordered troops to mass near Ukraine in what U.S. and European officials say could be a prelude to an invasion. In doing so, Mr. Putin is trying to force the U.S. and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to address Moscow’s objections to the military alliance’s ties with Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet states, the current and former officials said.
Both sides described the tone of Thursday’s discussion as serious and substantive. The senior U.S. official, however, said that Washington continues to monitor the deployment of Russian forces in Crimea and near Ukraine.
A military buildup along the Ukrainian border is further straining ties between Russia and the U.S., after clashes over cybercrime, expulsions of diplomats and a migrant crisis in Belarus. WSJ explains what is deepening the rift between Washington and Moscow. Photo Composite/Video: Michelle Inez Simon
During the call, the U.S. official said, Mr. Biden outlined two paths that Mr. Putin faces: one of de-escalation and diplomacy, and another in which Russia takes military action against its Ukrainian neighbor and encounters a serious response from the West.
That, Mr. Biden and top officials have said, would include stringent economic sanctions, stepped up military aid to Ukraine and a reinforced U.S. military presence along NATO’s eastern flank near Russia. The Kremlin’s sharp reaction to the warning of sanctions was seen by some U.S. officials as an indication that Moscow appears to be taking that threat seriously.
Mr. Biden has rebuffed Russian demands that the U.S. call a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion and rule out potential membership for Ukraine, a position the U.S. official repeated Thursday.
“Our position is very clear,” the official said. “These are decisions to be made by sovereign countries, obviously in consultation with the alliance and not for others to determine.”
Mr. Putin sparked the current crisis, current and former U.S. officials said, with his troop deployments and demands for security guarantees that would prevent the eastward expansion of NATO and deny membership in the alliance to parts of the former Soviet Union.
“It’s almost as if Putin and the Kremlin were saying: ‘Wait a minute, we’re a nuclear superpower, pay attention to us,’” said Angela Stent, a Brookings Institution fellow and former U.S. national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia. “Key Western players have been distracted, and Putin took the initiative and, in essence, created a crisis where there wasn’t a crisis in order to secure concessions from the West.”
Russia’s foreign ministry this month posted two proposed accords that would redefine European security on its website—a draft treaty with the U.S. and one with NATO nations—after handing them to a senior State Department official. The treaty was released in English and Russian versions and came complete with signature blocks for the two sides.
“You should give us guarantees,” Mr. Putin said on Dec. 23 at his annual press conference. “Now!”
In the call Thursday, Mr. Putin argued that the U.S. would be acting much the same if Russia was deploying weapons near the U.S. border, Mr. Ushakov said.
Mr. Biden said that the U.S. had no intention of deploying offensive missiles in Ukraine that could strike Russia, Mr. Ushakov added.
A White House official said Mr. Biden made clear that the U.S. was providing only defensive security assistance to Ukraine and wasn’t deploying offensive weapons that can strike Russia. “This was not a new commitment. It was a restatement of our current policy,” the White House official said.
The military assistance the U.S. has provided to Ukraine so far consists of antitank weapons, counter-battery radars, patrols boats and battlefield systems.
Mr. Biden had tried to plot a different relationship with his Russian counterpart. Before his first summit meeting with Mr. Putin in June, Biden administration officials made clear that they were seeking predictable and stable ties with Moscow.
Though the two leaders didn’t resolve major issues at their summit, they expressed interest in maintaining a working relationship and reiterated the formula codified by former President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” That theme, Mr. Ushakov said, also came up in the Thursday call.
Mr. Putin, however, hasn’t been satisfied with the status quo in Europe, which he has said presents a long-term threat to Russian security, and he saw an opportunity to press longstanding demands for a sphere of influence along his country’s periphery.
Though NATO said in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would one day be members, the alliance wasn’t moving to fulfill that vow. Russia had annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and the war between Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists simmered on at a low level.
Moscow has grown increasingly concerned that Ukraine was moving toward the West and perhaps eventual NATO membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was cracking down on pro-Russian politicians and media inside his country, giving the Kremlin less leverage on Ukraine’s internal politics.
Ukraine’s military, meanwhile, has by increments been acquiring Western weapons systems and training from NATO members, though it remains far less capable than Russia’s forces.
Dara Massicot, a Rand Corp expert on the Russian military, said that Russia’s troop deployments have left the Kremlin with a range of diplomatic and military options as it seeks to pry concessions from Washington and NATO.
“They are creating this artificial sense of urgency. A lot of their demands are years old. They are using military force to underscore the point. They are trying to set the pace for negotiations and force concessions,” she said. “It is almost like Ukraine is the hostage.”
