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Last post 4 years ago by DrafterX. 155 replies replies.
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And they said it wouldn't work...
dstieger Offline
#101 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
delta1 wrote:
this latest is a distraction from Trump's policies toward immigration have fueled the "crisis" in the first place. The numbers of people swarming to our borders have increased dramatically since we've announced restrictions on asylum and cut aid to the three countries from where the migrants are coming: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras. We've contributed to the worsening conditions in those countries, motivating people to leave...



Seems to me the calculus would be "hmmm....they're reinforcing the border and future dacca protections seem unlikely....maybe we shouldn't go there right now"

I'm having trouble with blaming Trump for illegal crossings....really? Trump calling attention to and trying to 'fix' illegal crossings is causing the 'crisis'? I'm dubious

How much of what sort of aid was cut to those three countries? I missed reports on that. Must have been on the down low, I guess
delta1 Offline
#102 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
DrafterX wrote:
Trump's fault.. ok..
It can't be California offering free health care to illegals... Surely that's not gonna attract more illegals... Mellow



not all his fault, but he's contributed to the spike in numbers...lots of other issues, including the need for manual laborers to do necessary work that Americans don't want to do...

our past policy of helping Mexico prop up their economy has resulted in a huge drop-off in Mexicans trying to enter the US illegally and expanded our trading relationships in ways that benefit us both...why not use a similar game plan in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras?
delta1 Offline
#103 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
dstieger wrote:
Seems to me the calculus would be "hmmm....they're reinforcing the border and future dacca protections seem unlikely....maybe we shouldn't go there right now"

I'm having trouble with blaming Trump for illegal crossings....really? Trump calling attention to and trying to 'fix' illegal crossings is causing the 'crisis'? I'm dubious

How much of what sort of aid was cut to those three countries? I missed reports on that. Must have been on the down low, I guess


another calculus is: dammm...they're gonna make it harder to get in.... we'd better go while it's easier...


here is one article about cuts in aid: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-cuts-off-aid-el-salvador-guatemala-and-honduras-2019-3
dstieger Offline
#104 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
That article says 'reportedly', 'threatened', 'will be'.....

Congress is the appropriating branch....so, again, 'what aid was cut?'
DrafterX Offline
#105 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
It musta happened.. everybody but Trump tells the truth.. Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#106 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I don’t blame trump for the immigration problem. I just don’t buy his smokescreen. I do blame him for the actions that have caused harm once folks are detained.


I blame congress. That’s where the fix must come from. Trump is just pretending for the base.

I also think think there is a problem but it’s way overstated and stoked for political gain.
teedubbya Offline
#107 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Not everyone but trump tells the truth but the truth is certainly a stranger to him and he does accuse everyone else of lying.
DrafterX Offline
#108 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
You don't think the huge number of illegals in makeshift detention centers might be the cause of people not getting the (free) treatment they came for..?? But that's Trump's fault.. Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#109 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I think the changes that have been made to policy are at fault for that specific part. But you will never agree which is cool.
DrafterX Offline
#110 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Ya... Besides, we all know Obama woulda never caged kids right..?? It was Trump that made the policy to cage kids.. Mellow
delta1 Offline
#111 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
dstieger wrote:
That article says 'reportedly', 'threatened', 'will be'.....

Congress is the appropriating branch....so, again, 'what aid was cut?'



Congress appropriates and the executive executes, and has discretion in the execution...


here's an article that says the cuts are a done deal, one that many folks want Trump's State Dept. to reconsider

https://thehill.com/latino/440436-bipartisan-lawmakers-urge-trump-to-reconsider-central-america-aid-cuts


so...you're also a Trump skeptic...not believing that he'll do what he says...that his pronouncements are only blustering to see what happens...
frankj1 Offline
#112 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
in today's news...
"Mexican official says there is no secret US immigration deal".
The Mexican foreign minister said Monday about Trump's claim on twitter there is no "fully signed and documented" agreement that would be revealed soon, thus directly contradicting President Trump.

so the newly signed big deal that just needs to pass in Mexico's Legislative body (per Trump) is not true.

Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico's top diplomat, did say that both sides agree that if the flow of migrants is not significantly reduced in the coming months, they would be willing to renew discussions...

seems reasonable. would have been a reasonable release by the POTUS.
DrafterX Offline
#113 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
He screwed up... Here come the tariffs... Mellow
frankj1 Offline
#114 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
I'd like him more if he paid his taxes!
dstieger Offline
#115 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
delta1 wrote:
Congress appropriates and the executive executes, and has discretion in the execution...


here's an article that says the cuts are a done deal, one that many folks want Trump's State Dept. to reconsider

https://thehill.com/latino/440436-bipartisan-lawmakers-urge-trump-to-reconsider-central-america-aid-cuts


so...you're also a Trump skeptic...not believing that he'll do what he says...that his pronouncements are only blustering to see what happens...


Perhaps true, but far, far, from my (too) understated point.

In my head, my commentary was about you, not Trump. I may be a little bit sorry. I like you, Al and I respect that you're impassioned about things enough to debate them here...a frequently hostile environment.

My unstated point was that using lies and dubious 'facts' to support arguments or debate does nothing to advance the discussion. Doesn't work for Trump and doesn't work for the talking heads on MSNBC. Sure, it functions as an applause line for those that already agree with you. But it doesn't persuade others; in fact, I believe that it usually will solidify opposing opinions and risk losing respect for future positions.

I thought that you used recent, 'factual' aid cuts to those three countries as justification to say that Trump is largely responsible for increased illegal migration to the US....and I further inferred a point that less US financial support made living conditions worse, thus more people chose to leave and try to come here. Maybe I misinterpreted...but if the cuts haven't even happened yet, the effects shouldn't be too tangible yet to the vulnerable, I wouldn't think.

A discussion about the actual aid, what it is for, how it is used, and US responsibility to maintain current levels probably would be a worthy separate discussion.

teedubbya Offline
#116 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I don't know about those other sources but we are clearly cutting aid to the majority of central and south american countries. Here is an interesting source where you can plug whatever countries you want in to it. I have not checked to make sure it is snopes worthy lol but make the assumption the .gov address means it is blessed by this administration. The 2018 and 2019 data is not completely reported but non the less gives you a pretty good picture of where things are and the intent has not been a secret.

https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/HND?fiscal_year=2019&measure=Obligations

Some examples... I just picked these randomly probably based on hearing their names in the news.... I dunno


Honduras - (2017,2018,2019) - 181M, 111M, 48M (I think this is to be expected, not sure where it will land)
El Salvador (same years) 118M, 88M, 55M (Same caveat)
Mexico (same years) 290M, 69M, 2.3M (Same Caveat)

2018 should be fairly complete. 2019 obviously not but glancing through several other countries seems to be trending less than 2018 sometimes by a lot. It's not a stretch to say assistance/funding levels for these countries is going down pretty dramatically.... which is the stated goal of the administration. Some in here think that's actually a good thing. There was a time when I was firmly among them. I'm not sure where I stand today because I'm not a big fan of giving our money to different countries. This may be a nice little experiment and the results may help me shape my new position.

It's pretty safe to say we are reducing finding to central and south american countries, threatening to make asylum requests much more difficult, and changing how we handle folks that enter the country.

To me that is stipulated and the argument is about the cause/effect relationship, desired results and merit (good or bad).

EDIT with additional information:

The amounts above were run on obligations. Following are distributions for the same years. Anyone working with government budgets will understand this and why things look like they do. Obligations are first and must be present for distribution. Timeframes will be slightly different however and the lines blur a bit. Thus the obligations will show things sooner than the distributions and there will be what looks like carry over. It all makes sense on a spreadsheet somewhere. None the less I wanted to show both. 2019 will be more stark on distributions.... it does show we are spending more than I would think but its probably a scramble to spend the obligated...who knows)

Same years in distribution

Honduras (150M, 125M, 70M)
El Salvador (95M, 110M, 62M)
Mexico (300M, 63M, 27M)


Again some of it is accounting... IE how do we spend 300M on Mexico during a period that has only 290M obligated. It's a timing issue but ultimately obligations drive disbersement. It will ultimately all tie and disbersment will not exceed obligation.
dstieger Offline
#117 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
Interesting tool.....I will look at that. I'm curious about the caveat on each of those: "Partially Reported Years: 2018, 2019" ...IF that means that expenditures still to be reported are NOT reflected in those totals....well, than any conclusions are still premature
teedubbya Offline
#118 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
dstieger wrote:
Interesting tool.....I will look at that. I'm curious about the caveat on each of those: "Partially Reported Years: 2018, 2019" ...IF that means that expenditures still to be reported are NOT reflected in those totals....well, than any conclusions are still premature



Just edited to add disbersement. On disbersement I would think it would mean exactly what you indicate and your conclusion would be correct. Obligation is a different animal and for this purpose indicates amount set aside to disperse if you will. Thats sloppy laymans terms but is the jist of it.

Obligation is the plan or ceiling. It should be capturing things pretty clearly. You can not spend money that is not obligated. You can spend some money previously obligated that will appear in the next year. Clear as mud?

It's pretty clear how we intend to spend but the whole effect of the cuts have not been realized yet. However the other governments know it is coming, know it has already started, and likely have already taken certain actions..... just like the States do when funds are obligated or deobligated.


I dunno.... to me the writing is pretty clearly on the wall. But yes we are in the transition period. I'm just trying to throw some facts out there (and can be wrong...if so I'll stand corrected). I don't really know what impact this has on immigration and am not saying good or bad. As I said, I think my thoughts are restructuring based on new information. Not sure where I will land. We will learn from all of this.
teedubbya Offline
#119 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
That site is pretty cool. You can filter by agency etc. Again... I assume .gov is legit but have not researched the site itself. Buyer beware

Thinking about this some more while the 2018 could get some minor adjustment on the disbersment side, I wouldn't expect much if anything on the obligation side. It's probably pretty solid.

2019 disbersment (I think they are calling it distribution, we use disbersment... it does have a slight distinction but old habits die hard) I would expect to change quite a bit as more money is spent (of course).

2019 obligation - I don't know how they are counting this. It likely is not for the year but YTD (monthloy or quarterly or something like that) but I don't know for sure.

Again... I'm just thinking through this and not trying to be definitive. But I think our intent and actions are clear.
dstieger Offline
#120 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
It's also interesting that of the totals reported there, DoD spending on 'foreign aid' is more than a quarter of the total....or around 60+% of the biggest Agency contributing, Agency for International Development.

Quite a reach to assume that the federal government won't spend more than intended
teedubbya Offline
#121 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
dstieger wrote:
It's also interesting that of the totals reported there, DoD spending on 'foreign aid' is more than a quarter of the total....or around 60+% of the biggest Agency contributing, Agency for International Development.

Quite a reach to assume that the federal government won't spend more than intended



I can only speak from my experience but you can not spend funds unless they are obligated.


It's pretty interesting to see where $$ goes and from which agencies. DOD may not mean what we think... IE who would think HHS plays the role it does in the border situation.

Without knowledge and just guessing I would think it DOD spending remains similar but overall goes down that would mean we are targeting the "humanitarian" stuff... but admittedly thats out of my league.
dstieger Offline
#122 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
I was trying to be funny...but, I have a little experience, too -- not much with multi-FY funds, but enough to know that it isn't impossible to obligate prior FY $$ in certain conditions
teedubbya Offline
#123 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
dstieger wrote:
I was trying to be funny...but, I have a little experience, too -- not much with multi-FY funds, but enough to know that it isn't impossible to obligate prior FY $$ in certain conditions



Yup You got it. I didn't catch the sarcasm but do now :)

And shenanigans do happen. The year to year shuffle is interesting, does happen but it's limited and there are rules.
teedubbya Offline
#124 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
A stick figure illustration of one of the many problems with government.

Budgets. There is no incentive to save money from your current budget. The only result will be a decreased future budget. The only way to save is to cut budgets up front which is not really the best approach but probably the only approach under the current system,

And example from many years ago from a fairly small component.... prolly 50M plus per year LOL

towards the end of the year it was recognized that efficiencies resulted in money left at the end of the year. Every cent was spent to acquire carpet squares and other various office improvement supplies. None of which was installed (I don't know if due to different budget or not enough funds).

None of the above was ever installed and were stored in a conference room. 5ish years later the unit moved and donated the stuff to charity. It was all a way to maintain budget. It happens all the time. Another example is travel budgets. It is always tight until the last quarter when a sweep is done and there is a scramble to spend it all. Routine.
dstieger Offline
#125 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
Departments have been making some efforts to get away from that mentality, but it has been a very slow going effort. There have been some strides and I do think that a lot of agencies, or at least divisions have lost the 'penalization' mentality; and actually reward better forecasting and proven efficiencies. I wish I could say that its the norm, but there has been a little progress
teedubbya Offline
#126 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
dstieger wrote:
Departments have been making some efforts to get away from that mentality, but it has been a very slow going effort. There have been some strides and I do think that a lot of agencies, or at least divisions have lost the 'penalization' mentality; and actually reward better forecasting and proven efficiencies. I wish I could say that its the norm, but there has been a little progress


You are right that in the last 20 years (my only experience) it has gotten a little better, but I'd say not much or not enough. It doesn't help its a pet peeve of mine so I may amplify it a bit.

The travel piece is absolutely alive and well. We are skimpy all year, skipping important travel only to watch less important travel crammed in at the end of the year. The attempt to address this is to slash travel budgets up front but then the same thing happens it's just more drastic.
tailgater Offline
#127 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
Huh.
(copied from the BBC website)

US President Donald Trump has inadvertently revealed some details of his immigration deal with Mexico.

He refused to discuss the plans with reporters, saying they were "secret".

But he said this while waving around a sheet of paper that had the specifics of the deal written on it - which was then photographed by news media.

President Trump made tightening the border with Mexico a major campaign pledge and the agreement averted his threat to impose tariffs on Mexico.

The document suggested that Mexico had agreed to a deadline by which it had to show its efforts at halting the movement of migrants had worked.

If the US determined that the measures had "not sufficiently achieved results in addressing the flow of migrants", Mexico would then take stronger legal action.


What has Mexico said about the deal?
Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard confirmed that Mexico had 45 days to show it was able to stem the flow of US-bound migrants by strengthening its southern border.

It is now deploying 6,000 National Guard personnel to the border with Guatemala.

"You go to the south and the first thing you ask yourself is: 'Right, where's the border?' There's nothing," he said on Tuesday. "The idea is to make the south like the north as far as possible."


Media captionA look at the steps Mexico is taking to deal with migrants
If this plan failed, the foreign minister said, Mexico had agreed to be designated a safe third country - something that has been demanded by the US before, but has long been rejected by Mexico.

If Mexico were to be a safe third country, migrants' asylum applications would be processed there rather than in the US.

Mr Ebrard earlier said the US had been insistent on this measure, and it had wanted this to be implemented straight away.

Mexico 'has 45 days to curb migrant flow to US'
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But he said: "We told them - I think it was the most important achievement of the negotiations - 'let's set a time period to see if what Mexico is proposing will work, and if not, we'll sit down and see what additional measures [are needed]'."

"They wanted something else totally different to be signed. But that is what there is here. There is no other thing."


If Mexico fails to curb migration in 45 days, other countries will be drawn into the matter.

Discussions would take place with Brazil, Panama and Guatemala - the countries currently used by migrants as transit points - to see if they could share the burden of processing asylum claims.

Mr Ebrard also said US negotiators had wanted Mexico to commit to "zero migrants" crossing its territory, but that was "mission impossible".
teedubbya Offline
#128 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Not seeing any new info ^. There are a lot of moving parts here and a lot of deception. I'm not sure everyone is following the ball.

I watched his Q&A by marine 1 and said to myself I bet that's a blank piece of paper in his hand that no one can see and won't necessarily go in to effect if they make changes first (like the tarrifs). By the way it was not blank. I don't know what it was but it wasn't blank apparently.

The real agreement is locked up in a safe next to the proof that Obama wasn't born here LOL.

As I said.... if he's smart he'll play this game sometime while being truthful so his followers will continue to believe all of these things are truthful. You will always see later.... but never seem to.
opelmanta1900 Offline
#129 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
Well there's a precedent that's been set... If we wanna see what's in a deal, we gotta pass it first...
teedubbya Offline
#130 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I'd say just as stupid but in that example there actually was a deal.
frankj1 Offline
#131 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
teedubbya wrote:
Not seeing any new info ^. There are a lot of moving parts here and a lot of deception. I'm not sure everyone is following the ball.

I watched his Q&A by marine 1 and said to myself I bet that's a blank piece of paper in his hand that no one can see and won't necessarily go in to effect if they make changes first (like the tarrifs). By the way it was not blank. I don't know what it was but it wasn't blank apparently.

The real agreement is locked up in a safe next to the proof that Obama wasn't born here LOL.

As I said.... if he's smart he'll play this game sometime while being truthful so his followers will continue to believe all of these things are truthful. You will always see later.... but never seem to.

the clip I saw last night of Trump pulling the paper from his pocket also had him saying it was his option if and when to show the contents of the document...and also said he was just waiting for Mexico to approve for him to show it...

yeah, I also thought that sounded contradictory
tailgater Offline
#132 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
So the POTUS and his admin put a plan into place.
Mexico is aware of this plan.
There are repercussions if the plan isn't implemented successfully by Mexico.

Don't worry about the delivery.
Trump tries to be a showman with everything he does. It has to be huge and great.
This is a simple edict. But it's real.
And it's spectacular.
At least when compared to what other recent admins have done on this issue.


DrafterX Offline
#133 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Results don't matter.. we gotta impeach him before he does anything to sway votes.. Mellow
delta1 Offline
#134 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
Trump has a proven record of trustworthiness...you can take his word on anything...even when he says he's going to cut aid to Central American countries who aren't doing enough to stop their people from trying to come to the US...
teedubbya Offline
#135 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
DrafterX wrote:
Results don't matter.. we gotta impeach him before he does anything to sway votes.. Mellow



I don't want him impeached. I want folks to see through his schtick. If you are ok with it vote again for him. No impeachment though. Hopefully the process works otherwise we deserve what we get.
delta1 Offline
#136 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
some folks like his schtick, because he's the POTUS who blows off all previous norms of "behaving like a POTUS"...they admire him like they would a yahoo who burps loudly at a State Dinner...

he entertains them while tweaking the noses of the rest of us who don't think much of how he conducts himself as POTUS...
frankj1 Offline
#137 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
I'm willing to wait for the results.
In the meantime, I feel it's legit to criticize him for, well, lots of stuff.
delta1 Offline
#138 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
don't have to wait...some results are already in...the little guy that he said he was going to work very hard for is getting the shaft...

tax cuts barely registered for most people except the fat cats and the corporations,

de-regulation has enabled big business to dump more pollution and resulted in reduced air and water quality, mostly in places where the little guy lives...

little mom and pop farmers hurt more by tariffs and trade policy...

consumer protection has been replaced by regulations that allow lenders to screw the poor...
frankj1 Offline
#139 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
should have been clearer, Al.
Willing to wait for the results of Mexico's help.

The other stuff is OTR.
DrafterX Offline
#140 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Trump hates the little peoples..?? One lived here in da hood for awhile and tho he was annoying as hell I didn't really hate him... Mellow
frankj1 Offline
#141 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
how long was he there?
and how little?
DrafterX Offline
#142 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Only a short while... Mellow
frankj1 Offline
#143 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
HA!
teedubbya Offline
#144 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Trump as a man of the little people is the best sales job ever.
DrafterX Offline
#145 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Ya.. there's no jobs and peoples are living off extended unemployment benefits and the welfare in record numbers and stuff... Sad
teedubbya Offline
#146 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
If you believe that to be true, believe it’s because of him not in spite of him, and believe it’s worth the other crap then keep supporting him.

As I said I’m not for impeachment. Let’s have a bite and if he wins again that’s what we are today and we deserve it.
frankj1 Offline
#147 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,221
why a bite?
delta1 Offline
#148 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
I don't understand why so many people are not in favor of impeachment. It is Congress's specifically authorized power to provide oversight and checks and balances when a POTUS abuses power and obstructs justice, which are impeachable high crimes and misdemeanors. Cons who say that Trump hasn't committed any impeachable offenses would be saying the opposite if Hillary or another Dem was in office and behaved as Trump has done.

Just because it is highly unlikely that the Senate would vote to convict Trump and turn him out of office is not a persuasive argument against impeachment.

Divisiveness is not an argument, because we can't be more polarized...there are only a few people remaining who are on the fence about Trump.

The main reasons to proceed:
1) make a statement for history that the POTUS is not above the law, and must adhere to his oath of office to uphold the Constitution,

2) focus/combine all the on-going Congressional investigations into: Trump's obstruction of justice, as described by the Mueller Report; Trump's campaign finance law violations where he paid hush money to keep affairs out of the public's eyes before the end of the campaign; Trump's Foundation violations; evidence of fraud by the Trump administration in organizing and financing the multiple inauguration events; evidence of corruption - violations of emoluments clause - as Trump has reportedly reaped financial windfalls operating his businesses while in office. Put all these and other on-going investigations into a single impeachment inquiry, to streamline the process and avoid a drawn out one that will be watered down if they proceed separately

3) make the hearing open to the public, so that people can hear testimony by important witnesses and see evidentiary documents

4) establish a legacy for the Trump Presidency...impeachment without conviction and removal from office is still a stain on a historical record, and future POTUS may avoid Trumpian behavior so as not to suffer similar consequence...Nixon and Clinton will always be known as the two POTUS who were impeached...Trump belongs in that group...

DrafterX Offline
#149 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
I think there has to be a crime before impeachment.. show me da money... Mellow
DrafterX Offline
#150 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Stop listening to Joy and Whoopi... Mellow
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