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victor809 Offline
#201 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 1:41 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
teedubbya wrote:
It is all about managing the workloads trying not to overwhelm local health care systems and hopefully improving outcomes. That's what's funny about the automobile accident screaming chimps. Try having them all at once let alone having the idiot drivers drive in to masses of people that are not in cars.

In the end I still don't know the end game. it seems to me like most people need to get sick at some point. the vaccine would be one good end point but we are acting like it is a certainty. we don't know for sure how long it will take, its efficacy or even if our own antibodies provide immunity. Combine that with once the vaccine is developed how is it mass produced and distributed (hopefully better than the tests?)

I'm not smart enough to see a good way out. I think the path that has been laid out is about as good as it gets and the states or localities not following it are playing with fire.... especially since their economy isn't in a vacuum and relies on others.

This thing is going to eff things up for a long time. The immediate gratification crowd is going to be disappointed.


I vacillate on an "end game".
If the end game really is just avoiding over-stressing our hospital infrastructure... I'd almost argue it was successful. We bought ourselves (theoretically) enough time to stock up on necessary PPE (yes, I know, I'm laughing too) and we can theoretically open everything right now. Areas that get hit hard, will use the now-developed supply chains to ensure necessary equipment gets to the hospitals...

It almost seems like some countries did the self-isolation so well that they actually were able to control the spread of the virus. They could theoretically open up with very few transmitted cases. In theory, with appropriate controls they could keep on top of those and actually not see any spiking.

For a while I thought we were going to try to achieve that. We fail miserably at that though. If you look at our graph of new cases compared to countries which actually shut down... we've been holding steady at 20-30k new cases a day for 3 weeks now. most countries go down after the peak. Not us. That means to me that if we re-open we'll see some fun spikes.

Vaccine would be excellent.
Herd immunity is possible, but not without first going through a pretty significant death rate (looks like a couple magnitudes larger than currently)
delta1 Offline
#202 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 1:49 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,794
teedubbya wrote:
It is all about managing the workloads trying not to overwhelm local health care systems and hopefully improving outcomes. That's what's funny about the automobile accident screaming chimps. Try having them all at once let alone having the idiot drivers drive in to masses of people that are not in cars.

In the end I still don't know the end game. it seems to me like most people need to get sick at some point. the vaccine would be one good end point but we are acting like it is a certainty. we don't know for sure how long it will take, its efficacy or even if our own antibodies provide immunity. Combine that with once the vaccine is developed how is it mass produced and distributed (hopefully better than the tests?)

I'm not smart enough to see a good way out. I think the path that has been laid out is about as good as it gets and the states or localities not following it are playing with fire.... especially since their economy isn't in a vacuum and relies on others.

This thing is going to eff things up for a long time. The immediate gratification crowd is going to be disappointed.


therein lies the problem...Americans will never concede their right to travel wherever they wish in this great land...doesn't matter if they are contributing to the spread...some may bail from "hotspots" not knowing they are carriers into otherwise "safe" zones


that's just the yahoos...we have a huge interstate/nationwide supply chain, product and mail delivery systems that keep grinding along...
delta1 Offline
#203 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 3:18 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,794
I'm guessing here...but the death rate and numbers of deaths has prolly been trimmed some by the mitigation steps...

less crowded hospitals and ERs with enough available beds and medical resources, and with doctors and nurses and aides, means better outcomes for some patients who might've died otherwise
KingoftheCove Offline
#204 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 4:00 PM EST
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,636
SImple perspectives....
1) we chit the bed initially.............mostly our fault.......but certainly China has to own up to their mistakes and outright lies...........to the worldwide community

2) we finally implement the only hand we had left to play..............somewhat effectively........ (accurate objective evaluation of our stay at home efforts won’t be possible for a while yet)

3) we’re faced with a difficult decision where an early return to “normal” might wipe out what we achieved, while waiting too long causes more damage than it’s preventing (economic AND social).................a real chitty situation.

So we are left to try and figure out a way to reopen things while preventing a massive spike in cases.............a tricky bit of business I can assure you.

A vaccine? Yeah..........forget about that bullchit. There ain’t gonna be an effective vaccine any time soon, and in my humble opinion, there will never be one. Only hope is continued improvements and developments in treatment.

Good news is things have yet to get ugly.................................hoping it stays that way................. but...
victor809 Offline
#205 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 4:05 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:


A vaccine? Yeah..........forget about that bullchit. There ain’t gonna be an effective vaccine any time soon, and in my humble opinion, there will never be one. Only hope is continued improvements and developments in treatment.


Been thinking about this one a bit. I mean... the common cold mutates enough that a vaccine is essentially useless to develop. If this particular coronavirus shares enough commonalities... we could be screwed in that regard.

Upside to that though, if it's mutating a lot, then we would likely result in a less deadly version... (a disease which can infect you and have you continue your day-to-day activities while spreading it to everyone else will quickly outcompete one which infects you and sends you to a quarantine ICU for weeks until it's killed off).... But that's a long term result... not short term
victor809 Offline
#206 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 4:08 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
The washington post has a graph of early April data.... comparing general "deaths" in the US against the seasonal data, and then adding in the reported COVID-19 deaths... suggests we may be undercounting COVID deaths by like 20- 30%.

And that's early April... data isn't available for the rest of April yet.
HockeyDad Offline
#207 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:21 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,135
Where are they hiding all those dead people?
teedubbya Offline
#208 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:24 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
It’s not mutating all that much. It is mutating but nothing substantial. I do think we will end up with an effective vaccine but it is a long way off.

delta1 Offline
#209 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:25 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,794
US numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities are going through the roof...far exceeding any other country in the world...

why?
teedubbya Offline
#210 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:27 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
HD prolly in Cali so they can vote in the fall
victor809 Offline
#211 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:44 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
HockeyDad wrote:
Where are they hiding all those dead people?


If they were hiding them, how would we be counting them?
delta1 Offline
#212 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:44 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,794
nah...Dems got CA locked up...

send them to Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin...true battleground states where every fraudulent vote is important...GOP has a lot of dead people on their voter rolls there...makes for entertaining exit interviews on election day, though
delta1 Offline
#213 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:45 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,794
victor809 wrote:
If they were hiding them, how would we be counting them?


you didn't see "Weekend at Bernie's"?
victor809 Offline
#214 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:47 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
delta1 wrote:
US numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities are going through the roof...far exceeding any other country in the world...

why?


Combination of good-old american "You can't tell me what to do"-edness mixed with a healthy dose of leadership so phenomenally uneducated that it thinks disinfectant or UV should be taken internally.
KingoftheCove Offline
#215 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:51 PM EST
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,636
teedubbya wrote:
It’s not mutating all that much. It is mutating but nothing substantial. I do think we will end up with an effective vaccine but it is a long way off.


I really hope you’re right.............but........just not gonna happen.
Then again, it might depend on how you define “long way off”...............5-10 years.........OK.......that’s a possibility.........maybe.

A vaccine for a Corona virus has never been accomplished............not even CLOSE, despite substantial efforts with SARs and MERs............there’s a myriad of reasons..........but making an efficacious vaccine for this particular type of virus has proven impossible thus far.
And I seriously doubt that will change in the near to mid term.

If I was Emperor, I’d say focus research $$ on treatment.
(Unfortunately, as King, I don’t wield that level of authority.)
victor809 Offline
#216 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 5:54 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Dunno man.... treatment for a virus isn't something we've had a ton of success at identifying either. At least the concept and methodology for vaccine development is something we have a good handle on, even if not for Coronaviruses specifically.

We've not had a ton of success with treatments for viruses. I mean.... suppression drugs for Herpes and HIV.... but this is a much different scenario than that.
KingoftheCove Offline
#217 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 6:02 PM EST
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,636
victor809 wrote:
Dunno man.... treatment for a virus isn't something we've had a ton of success at identifying either. At least the concept and methodology for vaccine development is something we have a good handle on, even if not for Coronaviruses specifically.

We've not had a ton of success with treatments for viruses. I mean.... suppression drugs for Herpes and HIV.... but this is a much different scenario than that.

Think
Yeah...........when ya put it that way.........fuggit............just let it go........time for a reset anyway.
teedubbya Offline
#218 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 6:06 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Been reading some things from the gates foundation. It’s encouraging. I think we have and will have some success.

But I agree it’s not a certainty we will get one at all.

By far off I’m thinking the year and a half or two plus another 6 months to a year for mass production and distribution.

That’s totally a guess/opinion and I waffle back and forth.

That translates to 2-4 years.
delta1 Offline
#219 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 6:16 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,794
nobody has the stomach for stay at home social distancing mitigation of most of society for that long...

we'll have to try to cope with masks and gloves and distancing along with periodic disinfection/sanitizing of workplaces...more telecommuting...staggered work shifts...enforcement of stay at home if you're sick policies...testing and contact tracing.... quarantine, like with TB cases...
HockeyDad Offline
#220 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 6:40 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,135
delta1 wrote:
US numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities are going through the roof...far exceeding any other country in the world...

why?


The man bun, vegans, and gluten issues.
HockeyDad Offline
#221 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 6:50 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,135
San Francisco Bay Area counties have now announced the extension of shelter in place through the end of May. Currently in week 7 now heading for 11 weeks.

In unrelated news, the governor is now allowing the scheduling of surgeries to help slow the flow of layoffs of doctors and nurses as hospitals sit empty.

In other unrelated news the San Francisco restaurant association expects 50% of the restaurants in the city will not reopen.
Palama Offline
#222 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 6:57 PM EST
Joined: 02-05-2013
Posts: 23,704
HockeyDad wrote:
San Francisco Bay Area counties have now announced the extension of shelter in place through the end of May. Currently in week 7 now heading for 11 weeks.

In unrelated news, the governor is now allowing the scheduling of surgeries to help slow the flow of layoffs of doctors and nurses as hospitals sit empty.

In other unrelated news the San Francisco restaurant association expects 50% of the restaurants in the city will not reopen.


Our governor announced SAH orders till May 31 - pretty sure we're gonna suffer similar attrition rates for restaurants as well as other small businesses.
teedubbya Offline
#223 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 7:15 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Pick your poison
HockeyDad Offline
#224 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 7:23 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,135
teedubbya wrote:
Pick your poison


We’re not allowed to have that choice. The government chose the winners and losers for us.

On the bright side, California is looking to hire 10,000 coved contact tracers. Our cities and counties want to hire as well but that could become a tax revenue issue.
Mr. Jones Offline
#225 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 7:39 PM EST
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,429
Restaurant s ARE ALL TOAST...

GET TO THE REALIZATION THAT YOU WILL BE EATING
YOUR OWN COOKING FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT LEAST...

ACCEPT FAST FOOD, PIZZA AND DUNKIN DONUTS...

FORGET FINE DINING, in NYC AT MR. CHOWS, Peter Luger, Morton's,or Ruth Chris's...they are a.L.L. going bye bye...

Life for the neXT three +++ years are going to be seriously f**ked...
It will never be normal again...no more one night stands and banging strange every weekend like the last five decades...
Mr. Jones Offline
#226 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 7:41 PM EST
Joined: 06-12-2005
Posts: 19,429
Restaurant s ARE ALL TOAST...

GET TO THE REALIZATION THAT YOU WILL BE EATING
YOUR OWN COOKING FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT LEAST...

ACCEPT FAST FOOD, PIZZA AND DUNKIN DONUTS...

FORGET FINE DINING, in NYC AT MR. CHOWS, Peter Luger, Morton's,or Ruth Chris's...they are a.L.L. going bye bye...

Life for the neXT three +++ years are going to be seriously f**ked...
It will never be normal again...no more one night stands and banging strange every weekend like the last five decades...
HockeyDad Offline
#227 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 8:02 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,135
I’m anxiously awaiting “underground” supper clubs for us elite. It will look like a boarded up Gordon Ramsey restaurant but if you know the right people...
victor809 Offline
#228 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 8:40 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Those already have been in place HD. You're apparently not elite enough to have been invited.
Speyside Offline
#229 Posted: Mon, Apr 27 2020, 9:14 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
We haven't went to any of the " Supper Clubs ". We are roughing it at home. Though our chef a gastronomic genius. We have been to a couple of speak easys.
HockeyDad Offline
#230 Posted: Tue, Apr 28 2020, 9:14 AM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,135
Don’t try to trick me Victor. There are no underground supper clubs open in Missouri unless you’re counting Hardee’s. You’re lucky to even have electricity.
ZRX1200 Offline
#231 Posted: Tue, Apr 28 2020, 9:19 AM EST
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,615
How do you know he does? He might just be rubbing two bibles together.
victor809 Offline
#232 Posted: Tue, Apr 28 2020, 9:20 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
HockeyDad wrote:
Don’t try to trick me Victor. There are no underground supper clubs open in Missouri unless you’re counting Hardee’s. You’re lucky to even have electricity.


Oh I certainly have not been to any. But there have already been news stories about these underground supper clubs. So even the rubes in MO have been informed of their existence.

And you still haven't been invited to one....

Man.... sorry to hear about your lack of eliteness.
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