00camper
Monday, January 26, 2009 8:39:00 AM
Is "the street" trying to tell us something? One year bill vs. 30 year bond = 308 bp. right now. Average from 1977 through 2002 = 126 bp, based on treasury CMT data from the Fed.
00camper
Monday, January 26, 2009 8:46:00 AM
Standard deviation of 149. So, plus/minus 1 sd = 273 to minus 24. Hmmmm.

HockeyDad, what say you?

rfenst
Monday, January 26, 2009 9:05:00 AM
Speak English!
HockeyDad
Monday, January 26, 2009 9:06:00 AM
I am short 20yr treasuries.
HockeyDad
Monday, January 26, 2009 9:18:00 AM
WHen the stock market crashed in 2008, everybody piled into US treasuries as the only safe-haven. This drove bond prices up and interest rates down. This also drove mortgage rates down and caused a little bit of a refinancing spike.

(The government was happy because mortgage refinancing at low rates could head off more foreclosures and the low rates on the t-bills made it cheap to borrow a trillion dollars in bailout money and normal govt operating money.)

People are now reaching the conclusion that treasuries are dead money compared to corporate debt or even stocks once again.

The government will not be happy with this. We need to borrow 2 trillion this year and it will come at higher interest rates unless the government steps in to somehow manipulate the market and/or pressure/extort our foreign lenders.

ScottHar
Monday, January 26, 2009 9:21:00 AM
Won't the government just go to Kinko's and print more money? (And pay the Kinko's bill with the newly printed money?)

ScottHar

00camper
Monday, January 26, 2009 9:23:00 AM
HockeyDad,

Gutsy.

00camper
Monday, January 26, 2009 9:25:00 AM
I think that the spread is also telling us that the market doesn't believe the "deflation" story either.
HockeyDad
Monday, January 26, 2009 9:49:00 AM
The important thing this year will be to keep China happy. We don't want to saddle our children with high interest rates so we need to keep convincing China that they are better off buying our low interest debt instead of investing in their own country.
DrMaddVibe
Monday, January 26, 2009 10:34:00 AM
Uh-oh...

BEIJING, Jan. 24 -- A top official at China's central bank hit back Saturday at comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner, who said the Obama administration believes that China is manipulating its currency.

Su Ning, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, called Geithner's remarks misleading and "out of keeping with the facts," and said they could sidetrack efforts to manage the global financial crisis, the official New China News Agency reported.

"We should avoid any excuse that might lead to the revitalization of trade protectionism. Because it will do no good to the fight against the crisis, nor will it help the healthy and stable development of the global economy," Su said during a visit to a Beijing business newspaper.

The exchange underscored both a tougher stance by the Obama administration on China's trade policies and China's concern that protectionism in the United States could be on the rise. It also serves as a reminder of how the financial crisis has complicated diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Some economists argue that China has kept its currency, the yuan, also known as the renminbi, artificially low to keep domestic prices down and create trade surpluses. That led to an imbalance, as Americans over-borrowed and became indebted to their largest foreign creditor: China.

In documents submitted to the Senate Finance Committee and released Thursday, Geithner wrote: "President Obama -- backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists -- believes that China is manipulating its currency."

China says its price advantages are the result of the low cost of labor, land and other resources. With exports and imports plunging, China is worried about the impact of the global downturn on unemployment and instability and an aggressive U.S. trade policy will only worsen the situation.

"The currency rate has already appreciated in recent years. The recent depreciation is small and temporary," said Song Hong, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Song said the trade imbalance was caused not by manipulation but because China imports so many semi-manufactured goods from elsewhere in Asia, processes them and then exports them again.

With Vietnam, South Korea and other Asian countries hard hit by the downturn depreciating their currencies, it was unrealistic to expect China to do the opposite, Song added. "It's possible a trade war will occur between the two countries. Even if the U.S. doesn't go too far in terms of protectionism, the new government will pressure China, and this can trigger trade conflicts."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/24/AR2009012400995.html?wprss=rss_world%2Fasia 

HockeyDad
Monday, January 26, 2009 10:42:00 AM
Timothy Geithner is great.....Couldn't pay his taxes correctly and we wnat him as Treasury Secretary.

Just another reason to be short treasuries!

big chief
Monday, January 26, 2009 11:08:00 AM
Not sure the 'we' do...others might.

what is everyone's take on interest rates for the next little while/couple years?

HockeyDad
Monday, January 26, 2009 11:17:00 AM
I have no opinion on the matter.
jojoc
Monday, January 26, 2009 11:48:00 AM
what is everyone's take on interest rates for the next little while/couple years?

====================

they will go up and down.

big chief
Monday, January 26, 2009 12:59:00 PM
are you sure??
big chief
Monday, January 26, 2009 1:02:00 PM
I'll take that advice to the bank.
jojoc
Monday, January 26, 2009 1:09:00 PM
glad I could help. lol