Will the upstart Texas Rangers really beat the mighty New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series? That’s what the sports simulation site WhatIfSports.com is claiming.
The site used its computers to run 1,001 simulated series between the two teams. And surprisingly, the Rangers won the ALCS 61.2% of the time, with the series going to an average of six games. And that’s with only using Cliff Lee one time.
So much for Daily News sportswriter Filip Bondy’s claim that “the Yanks should win this series just by throwing their pinstriped uniforms onto the field and reading from a few pages of The Baseball Encyclopedia.” I guess computer simulations don’t account for mystique, aura, and the power of pinstripes!
I think the Yankees will win the series in seven games, but nonetheless, I found reading WhatIfSports’ prognostications entertaining. Here is what the site’s simulation software is predicting to happen in each game:
Game 1: CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson: Most sportswriters are giving CC the edge in this battle of the initials, but the site thinks C.J. will beat CC, 2-1.
Game 2: Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis: In this “offensive spectacle,” WhatIfSports predicts that the Yankees will win, 7-6.
Game 3: Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee: The consensus in the press is that Lee, who almost was traded to the Yanks this year, will beat the Yankees. The computer simulation agrees, giving him a 5-2 victory.
Game 4: A.J. Burnett vs. Tommy Hunter: Sports radio listeners have been griping this week about Burnett being named as the Game 4 starter. And the numbers in this simulation prove their point, with Hunter beating Burnett and the Yankees, 5-2.
Game 5: CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson: The site predicts a battle of the bullpens in this game, with the Yanks eking out a 5-4 victory.
Game 6: Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis: WhatIfSports predicts that the Rangers win this game, 4-3, and the series. Here’s their writeup on the end of the series:
After 50 years filled with ineptitude and failure, the Texas Rangers are heading to the World Series with a nail-biting 4-3 triumph in Arlington.
The Rangers hit up Hughes early, racking up four runs in the 1st thanks to 2-run homers by Hamilton and Cruz. Colby Lewis bounced back from a brutal Game 3, confining New York to three runs on seven hits in an eight-inning performance. Texas made it interesting in the 9th, as Feliz surrendered a double to Lance Berkman and an Elvis Andrus error allowed Gardner to reach first. However, Feliz was able to smoke Francisco Cervelli, capping off the coronation for the Rangers.
Who would the Rangers be facing in the World Series? WhatIfSports predicts the Phillies to beat the Giants in six games in the NLCS.
I don’t think you can really predict everything that happens in the playoffs like this, but I also don’t think the ALCS will be the cakewalk that some in the media are expecting.
The simulation series also doesn’t account for the very likely chance that if the Yankees were losing two games to one, that Sabathia, not Burnett, would pitch Game 4.
At any rate, it should be interesting to watch and see if the real-life players match to what the computer simulator says they will do.
\:d/ 🖐 🖐 🖐
GO RANGERS
wheel,
