https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/deficit-tracker/ 

2019 deficit is bigger than the 2018 deficit which is bigger than the 2017 deficit which is bigger than the 2016 deficit....

and the dow is at about 25,600 right now. Barely up from a year ago this time.

I'll read it but I can say without doubt we are paying it. it is how it mechanically works no matter how someone tries to spin it.

Even trump admits it in his actions. He is lifting or delaying some because he doesn't want prices to go up for Christmas.

Edit... but after reading it if my mind changes I will admit it. Facts are facts.... but my guess is it is a convoluted trickle down type theory rather than a hard and fast mechanical who pays it sort of thing. Because to be honest that's just not really disputable. It takes spin.

As for trickle down itself the tax breaks for corporation sure didn't seem to work that way but the import taxes do. Weird how corporations share the tax burden but not the tax break.

To be fair, he didn't "admit" anything... that could be a 3 month delay due to cowardice, or because north Korea wrote him a really nice, sweet, romantic letter asking him to spare the chinese these evil tariff taxes...

It could be coincidence the delay is to Dec 15.

But, standard economic theory, accepted by literally everyone, is that these tariffs are not going to be borne by the producer.

If China chooses to take the tariff hit so as their exports do not decrease they take pay the tariff taxes and American consumers do not. I China chooses not to take the tariff hit their exports decrease and American consumers take the tariff hit if they choose to buy those Chinese products. This is not rocket science.

The importers pay the tarrif not the exporter.

The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) is breathing a small sigh of relief as President Trump delays the implementation of additional tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese Goods.

"The announcement today that the Trump Administration will be delaying the additional 10% tariff on some footwear until December 1 is an acknowledgment that tariffs are indeed paid by Americans,” the group’s president and CEO Matt Priest said in a statement. “It is no coincidence that the Administration is allowing certain shoes to come in without raising taxes in hopes that prices do not rise at retail during the holidays. Our industry's loud unified voice left a clear impression that shoe tariffs are already extremely high, upwards of 67.5%, and any further tariffs would directly raise costs on consumers and cost footwear jobs."

Priest, also says while the FDRA is pleased with the decision to delay new tariffs on certain shoes, they are not satisfied.

"We will continue to fight for any exclusions on new tariffs and we will fight to delay new tariffs on shoes until the entire tariff threat is lifted off the backs of American families,” he said.

To be fair, the importers negotiate with the exporter frequently. So they can say "hey, I've got a 15% tariff I now have to pay, can you lower your price to me by 15% so I can keep selling?"

But that's a negotiation.... and isn't likely going to go all one way. Maybe the exporter drops their price 7.5% and the importer has to then raise their price 7.5%.... or some other negotiated split.

But there is almost 0 chance that all the exporters will willingly lower their price 15% (off their already slave labor prices) across the board just to allow the importer to pay those extra tariffs and keep sales exactly where they are. Any president who says that is an absolute idiot and probably should have their degree from wharton revoked for having zero understanding of fundamental business practice.

How much Americans pay in tariffs
So how much do Americans currently pay in tariffs? Here’s an example:

Start with a shoe that costs $25 to make in China. Add the average 11 percent footwear tariff when it hits U.S. shores, and now it costs $27.75. A typical retail markup is anywhere from three to five times the cost of the shoe. Using the low-end retail multiplier of three, and that shoe now sells in a retail store for $83.25. Which means $8.25 ($2.75 in tariff on the $25 cost multiplied by three) of that $83.25 price tag was a tariff, paid by the consumer.

What if there’s a further 25 percent tariff levied on that shoe on top of what exists from the 1930 tariff?

The $25 shoe with a 36 percent tariff has a base cost of $34. Taking the retail multiplier of three times, and now the retail price tag is $102, with $27 of that price a tariff ultimately paid by the consumer.

While the retail multiplier of three to five may seem to suggest there is lots of wiggle room for retailers to absorb the tariff instead of passing it onto the consumer, industry groups say the average margin on a pair of shoes is around 2 to 3 percent once factoring in all the players in the supply chain that take a piece of that markup and all the costs that go into running that supply chain.

“It’s like insanity breeding more insanity. More tariffs are going to have a multiplier impact; hurt the GDP, hurt the economy, hurt everything we stand for,” Helfenbein says. Further tariffs will cause a chain reaction where retailers cut back orders, raise prices and lay off workers, he says.

The key is Americans pay it whether passed on to the consumer or not. It is not a tax on the Chinese. It is an import tax, you chose to import, pay more tax. Maybe you will produce here instead.



You may agree but don't misrepresent the mechanics. We can't tax them in this instance, we have to tax us.

This CAN happen but the tax is still paid by the importer. The exporter may choose to help offset the difference but it is clearly a tax on us, not them and what happens downstream may vary.

Doesn't Ivanka trump have a footwear line? (answer- yes she does).

I read an interesting analysis of this earlier today... essentially was looking at these industry specific delays to the tariff and really implied that the white house is no longer really enacting a trade war as much as they are specifically picking winners and losers.

Wonder if anyone peripheral to the white house made any shares purchases right before this announcement.

Agreed.
We have had to face this with our business. We tanked a container of filter materials to china when the first retaliatory tariff came around, as our China partner would have to pay an additional 15% on the cost we were selling. They couldn't profit off that price, and we couldn't get the US manufacturer to drop the price any more, so the deal got cancelled.

I pay sales tax. A place here has tax free weekends occasionally. Not the real ones right before school starts but their own version. It amounts to a 10% discount. The tax is still paid. You can spin it anyway you like but the tax is there..... and technically I still paid it.

It is a different issue to me than should we be implementing these tariffs and do they accomplish good etc. Thats a decent debate.

But if you think they are good why be deceitful about how they work. It's another mexico will pay for the wall.

Because "I want to help people" is not the rhetoric which sells with his base. "This will hurt others" is.

actually its you wont be paying anything.... they will... its chicken sh1t

if it's a good idea admit who is paying and why... its not china paying it any more than mexico is paying for a wall.

What Is A Tariff And Who Pays It?
Earlier this month, President Trump escalated his trade war with China by announcing 10 percent tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports—which took effect yesterday. But he showed a troubling lack of understanding about how the levies work. Pointing to earlier import duties he imposed, Trump bragged that “China is paying us billions of dollars in tariffs.” Treasury, he added, is collecting “tremendous amounts of money, which is great for our country.”

Where to begin?

What is a tariff?

A tariff is a tax on imported goods. Despite what the President says, it is almost always paid directly by the importer (usually a domestic firm), and never by the exporting country. Thus, if the US imposes a tariff on Chinese televisions, the duty is paid to the US Customs and Border Protection Service at the border by a US broker representing a US importer, say, Costco.

The Chinese government pays nothing, just as the US government pays no tax to Canada for that nation’s tariffs on imported dairy products. Rather, an importer or supplier for a Canadian supermarket pays the duty on Wisconsin cheese that lands in the grocer’s dairy counter (though I suspect few Canadian retailers are selling much US cheese these days, given the recent unpleasantness between the two countries).

Who actually pays the tariff?

OK, so the importer remits the tariff to its nation’s customs service, but who really pays the tax on imported goods? The answer, I am sorry to say is, it depends.

A business will, if it can, pass its higher after-tax costs on to consumers. Thus, the price of Chinese TVs sold in the US may rise rapidly. But the firms selling those TVs eventually will face competition from companies that sell lower-cost TVs made in a third country that is not subject to the import tax. In that case, some of the tax may be paid by the firm’s shareholders in the form of lower profits or by its workers in the form of lower compensation.

Or, the firm may switch to a non-Chinese supplier and, in effect, nobody will pay the tariff. Still, demand for imported goods subject to the tax won’t go to zero right away—so the government will collect some revenue from the import tax. That’s what the president was bragging about.

Adam Smith explains.

There is lots of economic theory about the effect of tariffs on consumption and prices. After all, tariffs are hardly new and economists since Adam Smith have been writing about their problems for centuries.

In the short run, higher prices for imported goods will reduce consumption of those goods. But in the longer term, the decline in competition from foreign products makes domestic firms less efficient. And less competition will result in higher prices, not just for those goods subject to the tariff but for competing goods that are not—such as those made domestically. In the case of Trump’s tariffs on China, that means US consumers will pay somewhat higher prices. Thus, not only will the price of Chinese TVs rise, but so will the price of Mexican TVs and US-made TVs (yes, there still are a few).

In the case of Trump’s tariffs, US prices will rise but not by much and US demand will decline but not by much. Chinese exports to the US will fall but most likely be replaced by imports from producers of competing products in other countries.