DrMaddVibe
2 years ago

Macs, please consider that I am talking about the coming decades. And the cars that would need the infrastructure don't exist yet. And yes, there are pockets like Chicago where people who can't charge at home has issues getting filled up.

It is true that may cannot afford a new car - the average price of which is about $48,000 (so say the intranets). A cheap Tesla starts at $39,000 - still out of reach for many - to your point. There is of course a growing body of used EVs - not that I think people should be compelled to buy one.




To be clear - I don't have a dog in this fight. I like my car and am happy to tell people about the tech. But I am not for anyone being forced to buy one. Really. Honest injun.

Brewha wrote:




You might want to go back and look on your posts on this thread and the others the OP listed. Kinda counter to what you want to backpeddle with now isn't it? You acted more like a Biden Secretary of Transportation assistant than a skeptical toe-dipper when it came to pushing the EV narrative. Comical. When are you going to walk backwards the COVID 1984 hysteria you helped divide and amped up? Yeah.

Pepperidge Farms remembers.
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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago
On with the "show"!

Tesla competitor Rivian predicts zero growth this year as founder blames the Fed for making him cut a tenth of his staff


For months Elon Musk has been blaming high interest rates for his softening sales growth despite evidence showing that half of all new car buyers in America can afford his EVs. Now, Rivian founder RJ Scaringe joined the chorus, pinning the fault for his firing of every tenth employee indirectly on Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.

In a statement, the CEO sought to assure investors that Wednesday’s announced layoffs combined with flat 2024 sales guidance and billions more in expected losses wasn’t a warning sign demand had peaked. Just the opposite, he emphasized, noting that the EV market remained in its infancy with 1.5 billion combustion engine vehicles on the world’s roads still to be replaced by clean, zero-emission cars like his R1S sport utility vehicle.

“We firmly believe in the full electrification of the automotive industry, but recognize in the short term the challenging macroeconomic conditions,” he said, citing broader headwinds outside his control.

Yet the Irvine, Calif.–based automaker almost exclusively depends on customers in the U.S., where equity markets hit new record highs this month amid robust ongoing strength in the labor market and a gross domestic product expanding at a faster pace than anywhere else in the industrialized world. Even Fox News host and former Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow admitted he had trouble finding fault in the data.

‘Historically high interest rates’

So what exactly are these challenges Scaringe blames then? During the investor call he was more specific.

“Our business is not immune to existing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, most notably the impact of historically high interest rates, which has negatively impacted demand,” Scaringe said.

It’s true that big-ticket items like cars are more sensitive to rates, which are predicted to remain higher for longer to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating. But Rivian caters to a well-heeled crowd of brand-conscious tech enthusiasts that can afford premium-priced vehicles, including his R1T pickup and R1S.

If you listen more closely, Scaringe revealed some of his customers are simply tired of waiting years in some cases for their car, or their lifestyle requirements may have shifted in the meantime owing to different choices. Incumbents failing to deliver attractive EVs hasn’t helped to raise interest in the sector, either, he added.

Unfortunately for the overall industry, Tesla has soaked up most demand from higher income early adopters in the U.S. market, a group upon which Rivian depends. That’s why its longer-term future hangs on the outcome of the March 7 unveiling of its competitor to Tesla’s Model Y, the new R2 midsize SUV that will spearhead its global expansion. It’s no understatement to say this is a make-or-break model for Rivian.

“There is a lack of choice of highly compelling EV products in that $45,000 to $55,000 price range, recognizing the average price of a new vehicle transaction was around $48,000,” he said. “We remain very bullish on the R2 segment and the R2 product itself.”

Avoiding comparisons

In a bid to avoid ongoing comparisons with Tesla and whether Rivian can outcompete Musk’s company, Scaringe sought to shift focus to the promise of hypergrowth by framing EVs as a product relevant for the remaining 93% of car buyers who haven’t adopted the technology given considerations like range and charging infrastructure.

Much like some of Rivian’s customers, investors once dazzled by fantasies of an unimaginably high “total addressable market” do not have the same outlook as they did when they bought into the company’s IPO at the peak of the EV bubble.

Scaringe has little choice now but to look for savings, and this is forcing him to take a giant risk. A major event that will determine the company’s performance this year is a massive multi-week shutdown of production at Rivian’s R1 manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill. Scaringe aims to onboard new suppliers and jettison others in an attempt to reduce material costs and boost assembly line speeds.

Even after work is completed, the slog to coordinate the subsequent ramp-up will affect production in the second half as well. As a result, output this year is predicted to stagnate at 57,000 vehicles, after more than doubling in 2023.

If all goes well, however, the company should exit the year with what he called a “modest” fourth-quarter gross profit. Underlying annual operating losses are forecast to narrow to $2.7 billion from $4 billion last year.

Overall, however, the reality of stagnant sales for a growth stock expected to continue booking heavy losses amid continued executional risk will likely dim investor enthusiasm. Shares are set to open 15% lower on Thursday
when trading begins.

https://fortune.com/2024/02/22/rivian-elon-musk-tesla-interest-rates-growth-evs-federal-reserve/ 

Totally predictable.
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RayR
2 years ago
^ If all you have holding your business together and driving consumer demand is the reliance on artificially low interest rates by the FED and government subsidies you ain't got much of a business to begin with. Maybe they should try capitalism, making a product customers want at a price they can afford.
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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago
Oh...doesn't that make the most sense?
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Abrignac
2 years ago

^ If all you have holding your business together and driving consumer demand is the reliance on artificially low interest rates by the FED and government subsidies you ain't got much of a business to begin with. Maybe they should try capitalism, making a product customers want at a price they can afford.

RayR wrote:


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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago
Huh...thought you blocked him?

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Abrignac
2 years ago

Huh...thought you blocked him?

DrMaddVibe wrote:



I do. But occasionally I peek to see if he has anything worthwhile to say that would lead to me unblocking him. Have to quote him to see his posts. Probably hit the post button by accident afterwards.
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Brewha
2 years ago

You might want to go back and look on your posts on this thread and the others the OP listed. Kinda counter to what you want to backpeddle with now isn't it? You acted more like a Biden Secretary of Transportation assistant than a skeptical toe-dipper when it came to pushing the EV narrative. Comical. When are you going to walk backwards the COVID 1984 hysteria you helped divide and amped up? Yeah.

Pepperidge Farms remembers.

DrMaddVibe wrote:



I think I speak for many here what I say this is what we all love about you DrMaddVibe.

You never stoop to name calling - no middle school posting for you.
Always seeking to understand the view of others through adult discussion and debate.
No judging - everyone has a right to their opinion.
Never posting an option that you did not find online - because that make it a fact.

Bravo DMV!
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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago

I think I speak for many here what I say this is what we all love about you DrMaddVibe.

You never stoop to name calling - no middle school posting for you.
Always seeking to understand the view of others through adult discussion and debate.
No judging - everyone has a right to their opinion.
Never posting an option that you did not find online - because that make it a fact.

Bravo DMV!

Brewha wrote:



You've proven time and again that "thinking" isn't your strong suit. Hell its not even in your wheelhouse. You're more of an emotional hot mess with feelings over facts.

So, that's a big NO from you? Ok. You said it and meant it. Got it.
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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago
So much for the "pennies on the dollar" claim a few would claim!


The Tesla Model S Takes 135 Hours To Charge

The Model S Performance boasts a near-class-leading EPA-estimated 405-mile range claim, but the Plaid is only marginally worse, with its 396-mile range estimate. Fitting the larger 21-inch wheels reduces this to 348 miles. The Performance returns a 124/115/120 MPGe energy consumption estimate on the city/highway/combined cycle, making it the most efficient Model S. The Plaid with 19-inch wheels slightly worsens this to 119/112/116 MPGe, but the 21-inch wheels have the worst effect on efficiency, returning a 102/99/101 MPGe estimate.

Tesla Model S Range And Charging Times
Battery Capacity 100 kWh
Range 348-405 miles
Level 1 AC 110V Charging time (0-100%) 135 Hours
Level 2 AC 220V Charging time (0-100%) 18 Hours
Level 3 DC 350V Charging time (10-80%) 30 Minutes
(Specifications sourced from Tesla)

If you plug the Model S's empty battery into a Level One household plug point at 120-volts, you will wait around 135 hours for a full charge. You can cut this time down to 18 hours if you use a Level Two 240-volt outlet, but a 72-ampere system reduces the time even further, down to eight hours. Using Tesla's 350-volt Level Three direct current fast charger means the battery will charge from 10 to 80 percent in 30 minutes.

The Tesla Model S Costs $100 To Charge

Using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics portal, we learn that American citizens, on average, pay 17 cents per kWh. This value is based on a scale measuring the cost of energy across all cities, which is a fairly broad range. You'll find the cheapest electricity in cities like St. Louis and Seattle, where the current rate sits at around 13 cents per kWh. Things start to get more expensive in San Diego and San Francisco, where energy suppliers charge as much as 42 cents per kWh. Using this, we can deduce that the Model S's 100 kWh pack costs $13 to charge the battery in cheaper cities, and $42 in the most expensive cities.

Tesla Model S Charging Costs
Standard 100 kWh Battery
Low Rate States $13
High Rate States $42
DC Fast Charging $50-100
(Specifications sourced from Tesla)

Tesla's Supercharging network charges between 50 cents and $1 per kWh across all of its national stations. This pricing scale is based on how congested the stations are. When a Supercharging station is generally empty with short waiting times, you'll find yourself paying around $50 to fully charge. On occasions when the stations are busy, which is common during peak hours and festive seasons along busier road networks, the battery costs $100 to replenish.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/here-s-how-much-it-costs-to-charge-a-tesla-model-s/ar-BB1jczN6?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=05f28cafa9db4354bd347fc6a6dfbfd5&ei=89 


Then there's the inevitable battery replacement costs, insurance costs are rising on them as well as the cost for specially designed tires too. Then there this...

https://wonderfulengineering.com/elon-musks-claims-that-teslas-will-appreciate-in-value-seem-to-have-fallen-flat/ [/i][/color]

](*,) 😣 😣

NOT READY FOR PRIMETIME!
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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago
Electric 18-wheelers are even stupider than electric cars


Yet another sequence of ruinously expensive technical miracles required

“It still boggles my mind,” says Jeffrey Short, Vice President of the American Transport Research Institute.

Mr. Short was talking about the findings of a study conducted by ATRI recently, which quantifies how much additional power generation capacity would have to be added to America’s existing electric grid to convert the nation’s entire heavy truck fleet to battery electric vehicles.

“What we found were three very large challenges,” Short told the Capital Press, and ‘very large’ is quite an understatement of the magnitude of the real problem here. The numbers seem overwhelming.

First, ATRI finds that US nationwide power generation would need to increase 40 per cent over the coming years just to accommodate the additional load placed on the various regional grids to recharge all the new heavy truck batteries. Taken in a vacuum that may sound achievable to the layperson. But no such vacuum exists: The added load must be found in addition to massive new loads being demanded for low-emissions heating, passenger vehicle charging, population growth and economic expansion, server farms, and even AI, which OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently said will itself require a doubling of power generation.

Where will all the new power generation, and all the new supplies of critical minerals needed to make it reality, come from? ATRI estimates that converting the heavy truck fleet will require the US to somehow source a volume of lithium alone that equates to 35 years of current global production of that key mineral. Expanding the grid and making all the millions of heavy new truck batteries will also require massive new resources of copper, cobalt, graphite, antimony, and an array of rare earth minerals not currently in widespread production within US borders.

All this additional production will have to come available to the US market rapidly. But, as S&P Global Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin reminded me in a recent interview, “it currently takes 15 to 20 years to open a new mine” in the US, due to a vast array of permitting and litigation impediments. China controls the supply lines for most such minerals today, and the Xi government will satisfy its own needs and those of its allies before it would be willing to release massively higher volumes to the US and other western nations.

The cost of the trucks themselves must also be considered. Currently, a brand new diesel-powered 18-wheeler is priced at between $150,000 - $180,000, but ATRI says a new electric model goes for almost triple that, at between $400,00 - $500,000. Higher truck costs, higher power costs, and higher transport costs will inevitably lead to higher rates of inflation since most consumer goods are moved to market by 18-wheelers.

Then there’s the weight factor. Currently, a new 18-wheeler with an internal combustion engine averages a little more than 18,000 pounds. New battery electric trucks average 32,000 lbs, give or take.

The weight issue brings with it another major cost category: The increased impacts to roads, bridges, and related infrastructure like guardrails. America’s existing infrastructure was designed to withstand the lighter weights of internal combustion cars and trucks - all this added weight will require all transportation infrastructure to be upgraded to handle the bigger loads. That’s trillions of dollars in increased costs between now and 2050.

Then there’s the matter of charging. Current electric heavy trucks need to charge for an hour or more for every few hours they spend on the move, which means that a lot more forecourt space will be needed as well as many more chargers: and these will need to be very powerful chargers. Long-haul, interstate trucking isn’t even regarded as feasible for current electric trucks and current public chargers: they can only manage “return-to-base” tasks.

This challenge related to heavy trucks must be considered in the context of all the myriad other unrealistic goals and moving parts of this ill-considered subsidized energy transition being forced upon us by western governments. In the US, it also must be considered in the context of a current national debt of more than $34 trillion, and the fact that another trillion dollars is being added to that almost incomprehensible number with each passing 100 days. It has already been estimated by one highly qualified electrical engineer that the “net zero” transition will require the imposition of a command economy in the USA.

How much more of a load will we force our future generations to bear before someone in a position of authority has the good sense to demand an accounting and reconsideration of this headlong rush into a green debtor’s prison?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/03/05/electric-vehicles-cars-trucks-evs-road-transport-freight/ 


This insanity isn't saving the planet. It's killing it.
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Abrignac
2 years ago
The notion that HD EV’s are anywhere near capable of replacing diesel powered HD vehicles is sheer lunacy. This is light years away from reality.

BTW, the entry level price for new fleet equipped OTR HD trucks is much closer to $225,000.
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HighSierraSmookin'
2 years ago
What does the future hold?
Well...if cobalt/lithium are mined to make batteries which will replace very vehicle on earth, this planet will look like a acne ridden teenager.
Destroying the earth to save the earth seems a wee bit counter productive.
If these people really cared about the earth they would go Hydrogen or back to horse and buggy.
Not profitable unfortunately for the elite and a huge inconvenience for them as well.
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Brewha
2 years ago

The notion that HD EV’s are anywhere near capable of replacing diesel powered HD vehicles is sheer lunacy. This is light years away from reality.

BTW, the entry level price for new fleet equipped OTR HD trucks is much closer to $225,000.

Abrignac wrote:



Frito Lay/ Pepsico don't seem to agree:

https://www.potatopro.com/news/2023/electric-trucks-food-industry-how-tesla-semi-working-out-frito-lay-pepsico?amp 

Amazon also seems to think different:

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/transportation/everything-you-need-to-know-about-amazons-electric-delivery-vans-from-rivian 


:-k
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Brewha
2 years ago

So much for the "pennies on the dollar" claim a few would claim!


The Tesla Model S Takes 135 Hours To Charge

The Model S Performance boasts a near-class-leading EPA-estimated 405-mile range claim, but the Plaid is only marginally worse, with its 396-mile range estimate. Fitting the larger 21-inch wheels reduces this to 348 miles. The Performance returns a 124/115/120 MPGe energy consumption estimate on the city/highway/combined cycle, making it the most efficient Model S. The Plaid with 19-inch wheels slightly worsens this to 119/112/116 MPGe, but the 21-inch wheels have the worst effect on efficiency, returning a 102/99/101 MPGe estimate.

Tesla Model S Range And Charging Times
Battery Capacity 100 kWh
Range 348-405 miles
Level 1 AC 110V Charging time (0-100%) 135 Hours
Level 2 AC 220V Charging time (0-100%) 18 Hours
Level 3 DC 350V Charging time (10-80%) 30 Minutes
(Specifications sourced from Tesla)

If you plug the Model S's empty battery into a Level One household plug point at 120-volts, you will wait around 135 hours for a full charge. You can cut this time down to 18 hours if you use a Level Two 240-volt outlet, but a 72-ampere system reduces the time even further, down to eight hours. Using Tesla's 350-volt Level Three direct current fast charger means the battery will charge from 10 to 80 percent in 30 minutes.

The Tesla Model S Costs $100 To Charge

Using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics portal, we learn that American citizens, on average, pay 17 cents per kWh. This value is based on a scale measuring the cost of energy across all cities, which is a fairly broad range. You'll find the cheapest electricity in cities like St. Louis and Seattle, where the current rate sits at around 13 cents per kWh. Things start to get more expensive in San Diego and San Francisco, where energy suppliers charge as much as 42 cents per kWh. Using this, we can deduce that the Model S's 100 kWh pack costs $13 to charge the battery in cheaper cities, and $42 in the most expensive cities.

Tesla Model S Charging Costs
Standard 100 kWh Battery
Low Rate States $13
High Rate States $42
DC Fast Charging $50-100
(Specifications sourced from Tesla)

Tesla's Supercharging network charges between 50 cents and $1 per kWh across all of its national stations. This pricing scale is based on how congested the stations are. When a Supercharging station is generally empty with short waiting times, you'll find yourself paying around $50 to fully charge. On occasions when the stations are busy, which is common during peak hours and festive seasons along busier road networks, the battery costs $100 to replenish.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/here-s-how-much-it-costs-to-charge-a-tesla-model-s/ar-BB1jczN6?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=05f28cafa9db4354bd347fc6a6dfbfd5&ei=89 


Then there's the inevitable battery replacement costs, insurance costs are rising on them as well as the cost for specially designed tires too. Then there this...

https://wonderfulengineering.com/elon-musks-claims-that-teslas-will-appreciate-in-value-seem-to-have-fallen-flat/ [/i][/color]

](*,) 😣 😣

NOT READY FOR PRIMETIME!

DrMaddVibe wrote:




This is a good article that supports my point: It is Americans that are not ready for EV's - not the other way around.

IF you ran your car empty and only had a 110 VAC plug to charge, you would charge for an hour or two and then drive to a super charger. Who would wait 135 hours for a full charge? It's like pointing out that if you ran your car out of gas in a desert it would be the problem with the cars technology.

But the head line is The Tesla Model S Takes 135 Hours To Charge
(if you are bone stupid)


As Americans, many have made the emotional (and uninformed) decision that EVs are bad. Just look at some of the baseless opinions and fact stacking in just this thread. Many see EVs as a threat to the oil and gas industry (they are not) or that they threaten our way of life or freedom is some fantastic way.

But ain't that America?
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Brewha
2 years ago

What does the future hold?
Well...if cobalt/lithium are mined to make batteries which will replace very vehicle on earth, this planet will look like a acne ridden teenager.
Destroying the earth to save the earth seems a wee bit counter productive.
If these people really cared about the earth they would go Hydrogen or back to horse and buggy.
Not profitable unfortunately for the elite and a huge inconvenience for them as well.

HighSierraSmookin' wrote:




Just think if we let people build every car and truck in the world with Iron and Steel.

Why the earth would have more holes in it than your theory...
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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago

This is a good article that supports my point: It is Americans that are not ready for EV's - not the other way around.

IF you ran your car empty and only had a 110 VAC plug to charge, you would charge for an hour or two and then drive to a super charger. Who would wait 135 hours for a full charge? It's like pointing out that if you ran your car out of gas in a desert it would be the problem with the cars technology.

But the head line is The Tesla Model S Takes 135 Hours To Charge
(if you are bone stupid)


As Americans, many have made the emotional (and uninformed) decision that EVs are bad. Just look at some of the baseless opinions and fact stacking in just this thread. Many see EVs as a threat to the oil and gas industry (they are not) or that they threaten our way of life or freedom is some fantastic way.

But ain't that America?

Brewha wrote:




I forwarded your drivel to the fine people that wrote the article.

Somehow you mistook me for authoring that. I even put the link in too.

One of these days you'll find out that the "emperor"...well...I don't want to ruin the surprise for you.
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Brewha
2 years ago

I forwarded your drivel to the fine people that wrote the article.

Somehow you mistook me for authoring that. I even put the link in too.

One of these days you'll find out that the "emperor"...well...I don't want to ruin the surprise for you.

DrMaddVibe wrote:



No sir, I did not think you wrote it. Your links were clearly shown and highlighted.

You prolly saw the "bone stupid" comment I made and thought I meant you. I did not, so stop feeling special.




But back to the article; up to $100 to charge???

Real math for my car:
350 mile on a full charge
82 Kwh battery
13.5 cents per Kwh

That's $11 for a full tank - or about 3 cents a mile.
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DrMaddVibe
2 years ago

No sir, I did not think you wrote it. Your links were clearly shown and highlighted.

You prolly saw the "bone stupid" comment I made and thought I meant you. I did not, so stop feeling special.

Brewha wrote:



With you at least...there's no thinking.

As for the rest of your sentiment...nobody cares what you feel!



NOBODY!
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Brewha
2 years ago

With you at least...there's no thinking.

As for the rest of your sentiment...nobody cares what you feel!



NOBODY!

DrMaddVibe wrote:




Always like a trip to middle school texting with you DMV - thanks!
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