twisted
Friday, December 19, 2008 6:51:00 AM
This is so idiotic I can't really contain myself. This is such a bad idea on so many levels that I have lost what minuscule faith I had left in the our government.

Wait,..it's a loan.. And if GM and Chrysler don't shape up in a few months, they can call the loan.

And they are going to pay it back with WHAT? They're f*cking broke!!! Isn't loaning money to people that have no prayer of paying it back how we got in this mess to begin with? It ain't rocket science.

OK, I need some B/SOTL help. I'm going to write the government to see if I can get some bailout money. Seriously. My little construction company could certainly use some, times are tough, and I figure a couple of million could get me through till the economy improves, so I figure I start with asking for half of Billion. I'm serious. I very serious. Equality in the eyes of our government, why shouldn't they. Why is my company any different? They'd have to give me a reason for refusing.

My questions is where does one start? State senators? Straight to the White House? Dept of the Treas? Maybe that Gov of Illinois, he seems to have all the contacts.

I'm serious about this but need a little help on where you guys think I should start.

jimmy@ctconnect.com
Friday, December 19, 2008 6:53:00 AM
... they REALLY need to cut the CEO's and all of the other executive jobs in half for starters ...

... and I'm sorry, but people on an assembly line (imho) should not be getting more than $30/hr for starters and should NOT he allowed to rack up 10-20hrs of overtime per week.

topper7788
Friday, December 19, 2008 7:06:00 AM
twisted,

Boy, your upset now, wait to you realize how much it's going to take to put the industry back together again,,

Unless the general economy turns around a lot quicker than most people think.....

Figure $100 million plus over the next 2-3 years...

Of course we could always let them tank... Heck the 1930's were not that bad was it?

twisted
Friday, December 19, 2008 7:16:00 AM
^ I assume you meant 100 Billion.

You know they'll be back in a few months needing more. How much our good money is the gov't willing to throw after bad.

But seriously, who do I contact for a gov't loan. I'm really going to apply. What can it hurt and I'll see how far I can get with it. Any suggestions out there. Who did GM start with, Senators?

jpotts
Friday, December 19, 2008 7:18:00 AM
I heard an economist on the radio (writes for Business Week) about the Japanese automakers.

Their sales in the US have dropped by something like 20 - 30%.

Their sales in Japan have dropped by 30%.

Next year, Japanese auto analysts ate forecasting that Toyota will lose $8 billion. Anyone who knows how the Japanese do business realizes their their government will step in and bail-out their business.

If you think things are bad now, let GM and Chrysler go under. What you'll get will be close to the Great Depression, as well as the loss of a major chunk of our manufacturing sector. And with the ungodly amounts of regulations on automobiles these days, it would take billions of dollars to create a new domestic auto start-up. No one in their right mind would sink that kind of money into a new domestic automaker.

With only Ford left, it will be very easy for foreign auto companies - who are almost exclusively backed by their governments - to go into the hole a couple of years to run Ford out of the US auto market.

That's how they got market penetration in the first place.

But what I find more discouraging is not the prospect of an automaker bail-out, but the fact that people criticize this bail-out without having any other viable alternative.

Bankruptcy may fix prospects for the near future, but it won't increase auto sales (people are not walking away from domestic automobiles, they buying less automobiles period).

03screw
Friday, December 19, 2008 7:20:00 AM
"(people are not walking away from domestic automobiles, they buying less automobiles period). "

- - - - -

Not Pacman, he's pimping a new F-150

topper7788
Friday, December 19, 2008 7:24:00 AM
yes Billion, sorry...

Jpotts,

Remember, the 30% Japanese down represents 30% from last year when most manufactures were UP from 06, and 06 was UP from 05 etc..

Domestics, while "only" down 20 to 30%.. (of course Chrysler is down like 45%) they were DOWN in 07 from 06, 06 from 05 etc., etc,

Kind off a apple and orange thing comparing that..

With that being said however, the WHOLE industry is in retail meltdown right now! (excluding 1 or 2 minor players)

twisted
Friday, December 19, 2008 7:46:00 AM
OK, I grant you that some "foreign" auto makers are or have been subsidized by their gov'ts, to what extent or to what impact I really haven't done the research on. But it is such a global industry it's difficult to call Toyota, Nissan or Honda a "foreign" company. They have factories and employees in this country, pay taxes, create local economies where they locate, etc. I just don't see GM as a special case that requires a precedent setting intervention of the "supply and demand / survival of the fittest" market place.

There is no indication that management or UAW has any idea of how to pull itself out of this mess they have jointly made for themselves.

I don't buy the hype that it'll be the end of the world if they go under. The industry has to evolve and this just prevents that.

Didn't all these folks vote for "Change" last month?

law492
Friday, December 19, 2008 8:02:00 AM
Last night I heard a car dealer ad telling chrysler employees to use their $25,000 certificate at that particular dealership because they will give the most for their trade-in. Is there some sort of special 25 K giveaway for chrysler employees if they buy product? Give employees a giveaway and screw the rest of the public? F U chrysler, you DESERVE to go under if that's the case. As for the lazy u.a.w. workers, season's greetings.
neopuritan
Friday, December 19, 2008 8:25:00 AM
Bankruptcy is good on so many levels.

It'll buy time to restructure/refi loans, force new uaw contracts, if any at all, dismantle mgmt contracts, fire upper mgmt, and so much more than merely token trimming, which is all they offer now. Unlike a (uaw) bailout (who is really holding the puppet strings), bankruptcy will be very effective for the painful, yet necessary cutting out of overgrown tumors.

topper7788
Friday, December 19, 2008 8:27:00 AM
Law,

"Employee" purchase is common in the industry, both domestic and Import, deals vary by manufacturer... "Bonus" certificates are also commonly used especially by domestics to "spur" extra sales when appropriate..

This time of year Chrysler is known for "extra" employee deals.. These deals are generally also availible to dealership employees..

Now, I think you must have misheard something, Chrysler is NOT giving there employees $25,000 to shop for a car... Heck that would mean they could just go to the dealer and get a FREE car... Not going to happen... There have been in the past by all the domestic manufactures some goofy good deals at times.

I once got a NEW $27,000 Wrangler for about $17,000 at a time when there was no retail rebate and Wranglers were "hot" at the time.. I sold it 3 years later for about what I paid

... but not FREE.

topper7788
Friday, December 19, 2008 8:40:00 AM
neopuritan,

"Bankruptcy is good on so many levels"

Yes, one of my employee's brother in law works for a local company that munufacters some little tiny widgets that have something to do with fuel injection..

He was told last week that if GM declares bankruptcy they would most likely be out of business within 60 days and in no case survive 4 months... Guess that's one of those "good on so many levels" ??

He states his company employs like 700 people..and they are one of thousands of companies in that position.. He was not kidding, he was beside himself as he has worked their for over 20 years.. (they are not union and have nothing to do with the "evil" UAW)

teedubbya
Friday, December 19, 2008 8:51:00 AM
have to be honest I'm torn on this one. I don't think we can afford to let the industry go under, but we do let other industries do so.

The whole premise that other countries socialist policies create an unfair advantage in a capitalistic environment thus necessitating socialist policies of our own is amusing comming from some of the folks espousing this no matter how right they may be. If that mentality was consistently applied to other industries folks in here heads would blow off their shoulders.

That said... we have to do something. I'm not why we think the big three always have to exist.... I don't think so. Nowhere in the constituiton or bible does it say thou shall not forsake Chrysler. But for sure we can not let the whole industry fail.....

tough complicated deal here.

neopuritan
Friday, December 19, 2008 9:10:00 AM
topper, I apologize, I did not intend to be insensitive to the many whose jobs are so intertwined with the success/failure of these big companies. Your friend, however is an unwitting and unfortunate victim of a business paradigm that will end up in catastrophic failure one way or another. Greed's effect (read: sin) is rarely confined to the just the one. Others suffer innocently.
neopuritan
Friday, December 19, 2008 9:16:00 AM
Bankruptcy often sees the reemergence of leaner, efficient, effective companies.

Besides, if no one want to buy the car, are we (taxpayers) going to pay them to keep them coming down the assembly line? Where we going to put them?

Oh, wait, I get it. This is what BHO wants, free money, free mortgages, free gas, a Chrysler in every driveway... Hm, 300C Hemi or Ram truck Hemi.... tough decision...

topper7788
Friday, December 19, 2008 9:20:00 AM
TW,

I agree with you on many levels, been a free market kind of guy my whole life... But this is a lesser of two evils I think? Bail outs, hand outs, whatever outs... I guess a little socialism is better than a depression?

Personally an end of the Detroit 3 would be a long term benefit I think as I am a import dealer..

That's assuming I survive in business, which who knows right now... another year at the industry level we are at and I can't even guess how many dealers will be left for ANY manufacturer... The "new" estimates floating around the industry just raised the forcasted dealer failures from 2000 in 2009 to maybe as high as 4000!!! Very scary numbers...

My buy in contract has a 6 month "out" clause, I have already contacted my attorney just in case I want to option out... My partners are domestic dealers and if they fail??? who knows... I have been in this business for 30 years and have NEVER seen a market like this, EVER... (domestic or import)

teedubbya
Friday, December 19, 2008 9:27:00 AM
^ agreed .... this is not a black and white stick figure issue..... its complex with many variables involved

I think I am settling in on:

There is no devine right for the big three to exist and I don't think all three will exist throughout my lifetime. However a sudden disappearance of all three (and debatably any one) is no good for any of us. So we may need a little socialist policy (read very little) to allow for a morphing of the industry rather than sudden disappearance....

IE taper off to minimize withdrawal...... but ultimately there is no reason any one of those companies should have the right to exist just because.

teedubbya
Friday, December 19, 2008 9:29:00 AM
and on a personal level topper I remember you entering this market area and have given thought to the trying times (if not financially just stress etc) this must be.

I truly hope it turns into an opertunity for you.

twisted
Friday, December 19, 2008 9:39:00 AM
Back to my original questions, who do you guys recommend I write to so I can get my gov't bailout loan?

I'm gonna do this and see how far I can get.

topper7788
Friday, December 19, 2008 9:44:00 AM
neopuritan,

As you either know or can surmise I am a car dealer.... The failure of the Detroit 3 in itself is one thing..

The "gloom and doom" proponents are from what I can see correct in their estimate of the cascading effects though the economy...

Now to what extent I have no idea, weather its only 1.8 million jobs and not 3 million jobs is not the issue... (by the way it is also estimated that Canada would loose about 1/2 million jobs too).. the low end from what I have heard in economic looses far exceed ANY cost of "bail out" of the industry...

Again, I am an import dealer, but if no one buys cars it really does not make a difference to what you sell..

The BASIC issue facing my industry is the overall global economics, not the Detroit 3... Of course the Detroit 3 are at the forefront today, as the banks were a few short weeks ago... Whats next?

If housing, auto, and retail don't make some kind of recovery next year WE ARE ALL IN TROUBLE (well at least a lot more of us than today) ...Not saying we need to see 2006, but some improvement needs to come off today's lows.... Market stabilization would seem to be a good start? housing? Not saying a rally, but some kind of return to normal... Heck I really don't know enough about it... Just a small business person trying to survive...

Well that's my rant! Carry on...