Where will you be when the Israelis bomb Iran in the spring? · Page 2

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DrMaddVibe
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#21

Belize..??? man... it's a nice place and stuff but lots of bad guys and very little law enforcement... heard some stories when I was there about people saving money to build homes only to be run off when they finished... 😟

DrafterX wrote:

Sounds just like Detroit or Philadelphia![whip]

DrMaddVibe
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#22

That's all I need is to be living out of a van by a river in Belize.#-o

bloody spaniard wrote:

HEY!

If the van is a rockin'...don't come a knockin'![whip]

daveincincy
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#23

Sounds just like Detroit or Philadelphia![whip]

DrMaddVibe wrote:

The only difference is nobody wants to occupy the homes...people are just running away from them.

jetblasted
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#24

I'll be in Vegas in April ...

DrMaddVibe
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#25

The only difference is nobody wants to occupy the homes...people are just running away from them.

daveincincy wrote:

Oh...yeah...that DOES make a difference.

itsawaldo
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#26

I don’t want to thread jack but Nukes is scary!

I drove up the Eden’s today from Chicago to the North suburbs near where I grew up and as I drove past Tower Road I recalled that there used to be a NIKE missile base on the East side of the road. Sometimes you could see the missiles pointed up and on their launch rails when you drove on the expressway. On the West side of Eden’s was the small Army base tucked between the frontage road and the RR tracks that supported the base. As kids we used to play on the tracks and wave at the soldiers there. When you’d drive down Forest Preserve Drive just east of the base you would see the radar domes and guard shack and such. Being kids we thought it was cool, we didn’t know jack about the cold war but the space race was on too and those were missiles, shiny, white, and sleek.

This was the price of Freedom and an essential deterrent to Soviet bomber attack on Chicago at the time. The thing that scared the living crap out of me today was recalling the show last week on History/Discovery channel where they described NIKE missiles. I grew up within a half mile as the crow flies of some twenty plus armed and ready to rock and roll nuclear tipped NIKE missiles. What were we thinking? I wonder if my parents really knew how dangerous these were to be near or did they “feel” safe because of them? There was a cold war going on you know. NIKES were armed with Nuclear warheads and they were designed to fly way high over the incoming Soviet nuclear armed bombers, drop down and explode above them, annihilating the bombers and I am sure a few residents of central Wisconsin and in turn lots of fallout everywhere else. My dad when asked what would he do if the bombers came, he'd say take my family out to the yard and look south at Chicago, knowing it would be the last thing we saw.

My point is that it took a crapload of bombs, planes, subs to remind the commies that if they do us in, we do them in and it kept Nukes at bay, but what do you do about a people that live to hate? How do you deter them?

Israel goes to war so do we and who knows how China and Russia will react, throw in that the Arabs hate the Persians and maybe December 2012 is more than a prophecy…..what a cluster eff.

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#27

Best case: I'll be sitting at my desk sipping cognac and finalizing some no-bid reconstruction contracts.

Worst case: I'll be sitting in Washington-Dulles airport in the United Airlines Red Carpet Club lounge sipping cognac and finalizing some no-bid reconstruction contracts.

(I tried to stop this war. Now I'm just giving the people what they want. Don't blame me.)

frankj1
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#28

HockeyDad wrote:

blame you? might be the best thing ever! you can't really be for these lunatics. it's throwdown time.

but seriously, Iran doesn't want it to go down this road, do they?

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#29

but seriously, Iran doesn't want it to go down this road, do they?

frankj1 wrote:

No Iran does not. Israel does. The US military industrial complex does. The picture has been painted....just remember who painted the picture.

Humastronaut
Connoisseur

14 years ago

#30

Fiji!

frankj1
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#31

No Iran does not. Israel does. The US military industrial complex does. The picture has been painted....just remember who painted the picture.

HockeyDad wrote:

Oh there's a clear picture painted alright, but it's by Iran's leaders, and if you can't see it then check out the lyrics they have supplied in unambiguous terms:

Israel must be removed from the face of the Earth.

Crystal clear. They do not want to be misinterpreted. Old words that never stopped from them, and others. They are proud of it, they are not hiding in shameful shadows. This is no whisper campaign. The difference today is they have finally decided to make their dream come true. Such is the unavoidable destiny of modern holocaust denyers like their Maynard G. Krebs look-alike leader. The citizens of Iran, not so sure they totally buy into it but they are oppressed by their gov't. Never read about that from you.

But it's an ancient hatred for them, they are not neo-nazis. Might have even inspired Hitler's nutty little Aryan master race blueprint, I dunno, but this is not a new idea for them or other radical Muslims.

You have issues with Israel and Israeli policy. Fine. Many agree with you. But don't you see that what Iran et al really despise is Judaism? And Israel sticks in their craw. You absolutely never address that underlying FACT other than citing some new negative that Israel has done to cause it now. But they have hated forever. They will continue to hate. It isn't because of settlements. This is not an Arab/Israeli skirmish. There is simply zero desire for a life in peace side by side in their dream.

Their not-so clandestine military policies, along with those kooks from Syria, have been to dispassionately lead Palestinians to slaughter in an effort to destabilize Israel, take her down, corrupt the world's view of her. But it just ain't working and Syria as they know it, may be disappearing. What to do if you are Iran?

You are correct in one sense, Iran does not want war either, they want a laydown.

Has Israel ever said they plan to erase another nation from the map? The truth, as you know it too, is nope.

They won't allow anyone to erase them. You call that provocative agitation. Unfathomable.

If you don't want to send aid (money/arms) to Israel or any country. Fine. Believe in that, it's an arguable political position with merit. I can understand that position/vision/philosophy.

I'll never convince you, not really my goal. Just want to make sure the truth stays alive here and anywhere there are deniers and people gullible enough to believe the neuveau slick marketing of Israel's enemies spinning the softening of their destroy-Israel policies.

Don't bother speaking for me...I pray there will not be a war with Iran. You guessed wrong.

Edited by user 14 years ago | Reason: Not specified

frankj1
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#32

This is going to get ugly fast. Iran's intention is to wipe Israel of the map- they have said so. Israel asserts that Iran will have nuclear capability by the end of this Spring. U.S. estimates differ. Sanctions, if they could even work, are not scheduled to begin until July. By then, it is predicted that U.S. bunker-busters would be inadequate to destroy Iranian nuclear sites and would need to be re-configured. If war is inevitable, why shouldn't Israel just conventionally carpet-bomb the facilities - not the Iranian people-now?

rfenst wrote:

exactly Robert. Yet some otherwise very intelligent people can't "feel" it and insist people like us want constant war. No one wants war, no one. Your suggestion woukd save lives.

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#33

iShares Dow Jones U.S. Aerospace & Defense Index Fund: Ticker ITA
or
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust Aerospace & Defense: Ticker PPA

Unless you study the individual companies and under stand exactly what they make, these two choices are the easiest way to play it. The downside is these funds are running near their 52 week highs already even those most defense firms have been posting significant declines in earnings. The budget deal and already announced defense spending cuts would make it appear that things will only get worse. The fact that these stocks are running at 52 week highs anyway tells me that a lot of people are already way out in front of you on the "War with Iran" trade but there should still be money to be made.

Now if you want to go a little risky and play the Israeli defense industry, most of it is government owned like Rafael and Israeli Aerospace but a nice technology company that you can buy is Elbit Systems (ESLT). They are big on electronics upgrade systems and have a line of drone aircraft. A nice thing about this company is because they are not government owned, they will sell their systems to anyone in the world who has cash.

Another way to go that is even simpler is oil. We all now oil is going up when the shooting starts. Unlike the defense contractors, oil has not moved up yet. The trick with oil is it may be a short term spike so you have to move quick both in and out. The safer way to go would be to just buy oil companies instead of the commodity through an ETF like (USO). The oil companies you want are the ones not buying a bunch of oil from the Persian Gulf because you're betting that Iran cuts off the Straits of Hormuz temporarily through action or just fear.

An added advantage of have some investment money in oil or oil companies is that when gasoline prices skyrocket in the USA, it will take the edge off the pain a little knowing you're making some of that back in the stock market.

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#34

When investing for the war with Iran, you also need to take into consideration what kind of war it will be. Based on effectiveness with the wars with Iraq and Israel's various wars with their "neighbors" since 1973, we can get some idea of how the entire scenario can play out when we put those things in context with recent statements in the news.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said last fall that a US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities might delay its alleged nuclear weapons program by only up to three years and he warned of unintended consequences. Former Defense Secretary Gates said the exact same thing.

Wikileaks also revealed US intelligence documents showing doubts about the effectiveness of any raids.

Time magazine even recently reported that a senior Israel Defense Forces commander said “I informed the cabinet we have no ability to hit the Iranian nuclear program in a meaningful way.”

So we now have three different sources saying that an attack by Israel or the USA will only delay Iran from developing a nuclear weapon if they choose to do so. Now we can extrapolate from that a bit to get an idea of what kind of war must be coming.

The first Iran war could be either a air war from Israel or an air/cruise missile war from the USA. This does some damage, destabilizes the Middle East, and spikes oil at a minimum. The net effect is it delays Iran's nuclear program by a few years while Iran rebuilds, hardens, and hides better. Now we know an air war can't eliminate the program so that leaves only one option left.

The second Iran war will be a ground war. The ground war must be conducted by the USA. Israel need to lead the USA into that war because Israel has nowhere near the capability and if they attacked Iran in the first war and accelerated the nuclear program or shifted into a desire for nuclear weapons, a ground war has to happen.

The first war will be good for the oil investments. The second war will be truly good for the military industrial complex investments.

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#35

One of the things we don't know is how ferocious the first war will be.

Option 1: Israel sends some planes, bombs some stuff, and Iran shakes their fist. (Copy of the Israeli attack on Syrian and Iraqi nuclear facilities)

Option 2: Iran shoots down a few Israeli planes, Islamic Jihad displaces Hamas in Gaza and opens fire, Hezbollah opens fire from Lebanon, full scale fighting starts between Jewish colonists and Palestinians in the West Bank resulting in Palestinian displacement, Iran opens fire with long range missiles.

Option 3: Some combination of stuff from option 2 plus Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz. This probably accelerates pulling the USA involuntarily into the fray and speeds up the timetable for the ground war during Iran II. If Israel starts the shooting, the Straits need to get closed to drag the USA in.

Although it results in Israeli casualties (sometimes you have to break a few eggs), option 3 is what Israel wants if they cannot succeed in convincing Obama to do the entire war for them as an "October Surprise". Option 3 is the best for our war investments.

The best option for Iran is option 1 following by rebuilding, hardening, and hiding while accelerating the program. With all the warfare going on in the middle east, Iran has stayed out of it since their war with Iraq in the 1980s.

When you place your investment bets, you need to keep in mind that you are betting on option 1 versus option 3 because option 3 accelerates the ground war and the big payoff.

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#36

What we do not need to worry about is whether or not a war will happen. Israel will absolutely not tolerate a nuclear armed neighbor.

The worst thing that could happen is Iran develops a nuclear weapon and then does nothing with it like Pakistan or North Korea. The mere threat would force Israel to totally reconsider their big dog status in the region and would act as a deterrent to future Israeli wars with their neighbors and maybe even encourage a "need" for peace. Meanwhile it would embolden those same neighbors like Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel is not about to give up its ability to attack anyone and anytime with impunity even though the track record of those attacks has been more of a cluster than successful.

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#37

Crystal clear. They do not want to be misinterpreted. Old words that never stopped from them, and others. They are proud of it, they are not hiding in shameful shadows. This is no whisper campaign. The difference today is they have finally decided to make their dream come true. Such is the unavoidable destiny of modern holocaust denyers like their Maynard G. Krebs look-alike leader. The citizens of Iran, not so sure they totally buy into it but they are oppressed by their gov't. Never read about that from you.

But it's an ancient hatred for them, they are not neo-nazis. Might have even inspired Hitler's nutty little Aryan master race blueprint, I dunno, but this is not a new idea for them or other radical Muslims.

frankj1 wrote:

Holocaust deniers, Hitler, Neo-Nazis.....

You've done more than an adequate job of representing the Israeli lobbying effort here just as it goes on daily in Washington DC. We get it. The USA must attack Iran immediately to save Israel. You left out "existential threat" which is another one of the favorite buzzwords used for every flavor of the month concern for Israel.

Lemme help you a bit more......

Israel is now suggesting that Iran is developing a long range missile with a range of 6200 miles but the USA doesn't agree about this claim. If it were true, the USA would be in range!

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#38

If war is inevitable, why shouldn't Israel just conventionally carpet-bomb the facilities - not the Iranian people-now?

rfenst wrote:

Because Israel wants the USA to do it for them but Israel won't wait forever. We have to factor this into our bets on option 1 or option 3 and when to place the bets.

HockeyDad
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#39

exactly Robert. Yet some otherwise very intelligent people can't "feel" it and insist people like us want constant war. No one wants war, no one. Your suggestion would save lives.

frankj1 wrote:

What is this "no one wants war" crap?

I came over to your side and now we're going to do this wink-wink nod-nod routine about how war is bad? Remember, without Iran War II and the ground war, there will not be any no-bid reconstruction contracts for Le HockeyDad.

frankj1
Herf-A-Holic

14 years ago

#40

Yup, market reacting to world situations. Or is it wag the dog? Ike warned us. I am not blind to your posts above, so much truth that can't be denied. I guess I am just more fixed on the mindsets of the folks with most to lose, the same folks that got us to this point and how they did so. And I don't mean the investors. Money comes, money goes, and end of the world predictions pop up every day.

Hope you have the resources to cash in. But remember to thank the ancient hatred for creating such opportunity. Guess we disagree on the whole chicken egg thing.

I naively believe your scenarios can be avoided without many lives being lost, but certainly huge paydays would go by the wayside. I continue to address the root causes. I am a bit cash strapped these days.

There has always been/is now/always will be a "need for peace". One side's version asks for acceptance of their right to exist, the other seeks the elimination of said rival or it can not rest. But at least you finally gave credence to my initial argument months ago that Israel really is surrounded by those dedicated to their demise, I first called it a seige, you strongly poo pooed the notion. I feel vindicated.

I don't know how to advise you on betting the over/under. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

Frank

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