Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has made his Prediction on who will reclaim the White House this year.
Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris.
Based on thirteen keys or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.” - He did add a caveat that this prediction is subjected to change with any major scandals for Harris or Major negative down swings in the current economy.
The 13 Keys
1 Party mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 No primary contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3 Incumbent seeking re-election The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4 No third party There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5 Strong short-term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6 Strong long-term economy Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7 Major policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8 No social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9 No scandal The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10 No foreign or military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11 Major foreign or military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12 Charismatic incumbent The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13 Uncharismatic challenger The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
drglnc wrote:
