victor809
6 years ago

It is all about managing the workloads trying not to overwhelm local health care systems and hopefully improving outcomes. That's what's funny about the automobile accident screaming chimps. Try having them all at once let alone having the idiot drivers drive in to masses of people that are not in cars.

In the end I still don't know the end game. it seems to me like most people need to get sick at some point. the vaccine would be one good end point but we are acting like it is a certainty. we don't know for sure how long it will take, its efficacy or even if our own antibodies provide immunity. Combine that with once the vaccine is developed how is it mass produced and distributed (hopefully better than the tests?)

I'm not smart enough to see a good way out. I think the path that has been laid out is about as good as it gets and the states or localities not following it are playing with fire.... especially since their economy isn't in a vacuum and relies on others.

This thing is going to eff things up for a long time. The immediate gratification crowd is going to be disappointed.

teedubbya wrote:



I vacillate on an "end game".
If the end game really is just avoiding over-stressing our hospital infrastructure... I'd almost argue it was successful. We bought ourselves (theoretically) enough time to stock up on necessary PPE (yes, I know, I'm laughing too) and we can theoretically open everything right now. Areas that get hit hard, will use the now-developed supply chains to ensure necessary equipment gets to the hospitals...

It almost seems like some countries did the self-isolation so well that they actually were able to control the spread of the virus. They could theoretically open up with very few transmitted cases. In theory, with appropriate controls they could keep on top of those and actually not see any spiking.

For a while I thought we were going to try to achieve that. We fail miserably at that though. If you look at our graph of new cases compared to countries which actually shut down... we've been holding steady at 20-30k new cases a day for 3 weeks now. most countries go down after the peak. Not us. That means to me that if we re-open we'll see some fun spikes.

Vaccine would be excellent.
Herd immunity is possible, but not without first going through a pretty significant death rate (looks like a couple magnitudes larger than currently)
delta1
6 years ago

It is all about managing the workloads trying not to overwhelm local health care systems and hopefully improving outcomes. That's what's funny about the automobile accident screaming chimps. Try having them all at once let alone having the idiot drivers drive in to masses of people that are not in cars.

In the end I still don't know the end game. it seems to me like most people need to get sick at some point. the vaccine would be one good end point but we are acting like it is a certainty. we don't know for sure how long it will take, its efficacy or even if our own antibodies provide immunity. Combine that with once the vaccine is developed how is it mass produced and distributed (hopefully better than the tests?)

I'm not smart enough to see a good way out. I think the path that has been laid out is about as good as it gets and the states or localities not following it are playing with fire.... especially since their economy isn't in a vacuum and relies on others.

This thing is going to eff things up for a long time. The immediate gratification crowd is going to be disappointed.

teedubbya wrote:



therein lies the problem...Americans will never concede their right to travel wherever they wish in this great land...doesn't matter if they are contributing to the spread...some may bail from "hotspots" not knowing they are carriers into otherwise "safe" zones


that's just the yahoos...we have a huge interstate/nationwide supply chain, product and mail delivery systems that keep grinding along...
delta1
6 years ago
I'm guessing here...but the death rate and numbers of deaths has prolly been trimmed some by the mitigation steps...

less crowded hospitals and ERs with enough available beds and medical resources, and with doctors and nurses and aides, means better outcomes for some patients who might've died otherwise
KingoftheCove
6 years ago
SImple perspectives....
1) we chit the bed initially.............mostly our fault.......but certainly China has to own up to their mistakes and outright lies...........to the worldwide community

2) we finally implement the only hand we had left to play..............somewhat effectively........ (accurate objective evaluation of our stay at home efforts won’t be possible for a while yet)

3) we’re faced with a difficult decision where an early return to “normal” might wipe out what we achieved, while waiting too long causes more damage than it’s preventing (economic AND social).................a real chitty situation.

So we are left to try and figure out a way to reopen things while preventing a massive spike in cases.............a tricky bit of business I can assure you.

A vaccine? Yeah..........forget about that bullchit. There ain’t gonna be an effective vaccine any time soon, and in my humble opinion, there will never be one. Only hope is continued improvements and developments in treatment.

Good news is things have yet to get ugly.................................hoping it stays that way................. but...
victor809
6 years ago



A vaccine? Yeah..........forget about that bullchit. There ain’t gonna be an effective vaccine any time soon, and in my humble opinion, there will never be one. Only hope is continued improvements and developments in treatment.

KingoftheCove wrote:



Been thinking about this one a bit. I mean... the common cold mutates enough that a vaccine is essentially useless to develop. If this particular coronavirus shares enough commonalities... we could be screwed in that regard.

Upside to that though, if it's mutating a lot, then we would likely result in a less deadly version... (a disease which can infect you and have you continue your day-to-day activities while spreading it to everyone else will quickly outcompete one which infects you and sends you to a quarantine ICU for weeks until it's killed off).... But that's a long term result... not short term
victor809
6 years ago
The washington post has a graph of early April data.... comparing general "deaths" in the US against the seasonal data, and then adding in the reported COVID-19 deaths... suggests we may be undercounting COVID deaths by like 20- 30%.

And that's early April... data isn't available for the rest of April yet.
HockeyDad
6 years ago
Where are they hiding all those dead people?
teedubbya
6 years ago
It’s not mutating all that much. It is mutating but nothing substantial. I do think we will end up with an effective vaccine but it is a long way off.

delta1
6 years ago
US numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities are going through the roof...far exceeding any other country in the world...

why?
teedubbya
6 years ago
HD prolly in Cali so they can vote in the fall
victor809
6 years ago

Where are they hiding all those dead people?

HockeyDad wrote:



If they were hiding them, how would we be counting them?
delta1
6 years ago
nah...Dems got CA locked up...

send them to Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin...true battleground states where every fraudulent vote is important...GOP has a lot of dead people on their voter rolls there...makes for entertaining exit interviews on election day, though
delta1
6 years ago

If they were hiding them, how would we be counting them?

victor809 wrote:



you didn't see "Weekend at Bernie's"?
victor809
6 years ago

US numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities are going through the roof...far exceeding any other country in the world...

why?

delta1 wrote:



Combination of good-old american "You can't tell me what to do"-edness mixed with a healthy dose of leadership so phenomenally uneducated that it thinks disinfectant or UV should be taken internally.
KingoftheCove
6 years ago

It’s not mutating all that much. It is mutating but nothing substantial. I do think we will end up with an effective vaccine but it is a long way off.

teedubbya wrote:


I really hope you’re right.............but........just not gonna happen.
Then again, it might depend on how you define “long way off”...............5-10 years.........OK.......that’s a possibility.........maybe.

A vaccine for a Corona virus has never been accomplished............not even CLOSE, despite substantial efforts with SARs and MERs............there’s a myriad of reasons..........but making an efficacious vaccine for this particular type of virus has proven impossible thus far.
And I seriously doubt that will change in the near to mid term.

If I was Emperor, I’d say focus research $$ on treatment.
(Unfortunately, as King, I don’t wield that level of authority.)
victor809
6 years ago
Dunno man.... treatment for a virus isn't something we've had a ton of success at identifying either. At least the concept and methodology for vaccine development is something we have a good handle on, even if not for Coronaviruses specifically.

We've not had a ton of success with treatments for viruses. I mean.... suppression drugs for Herpes and HIV.... but this is a much different scenario than that.
KingoftheCove
6 years ago

Dunno man.... treatment for a virus isn't something we've had a ton of success at identifying either. At least the concept and methodology for vaccine development is something we have a good handle on, even if not for Coronaviruses specifically.

We've not had a ton of success with treatments for viruses. I mean.... suppression drugs for Herpes and HIV.... but this is a much different scenario than that.

victor809 wrote:


:-k
Yeah...........when ya put it that way.........fuggit............just let it go........time for a reset anyway.

teedubbya
6 years ago
Been reading some things from the gates foundation. It’s encouraging. I think we have and will have some success.

But I agree it’s not a certainty we will get one at all.

By far off I’m thinking the year and a half or two plus another 6 months to a year for mass production and distribution.

That’s totally a guess/opinion and I waffle back and forth.

That translates to 2-4 years.
delta1
6 years ago
nobody has the stomach for stay at home social distancing mitigation of most of society for that long...

we'll have to try to cope with masks and gloves and distancing along with periodic disinfection/sanitizing of workplaces...more telecommuting...staggered work shifts...enforcement of stay at home if you're sick policies...testing and contact tracing.... quarantine, like with TB cases...
HockeyDad
6 years ago

US numbers of confirmed cases and fatalities are going through the roof...far exceeding any other country in the world...

why?

delta1 wrote:



The man bun, vegans, and gluten issues.
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