https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/ .

^Why do you want people to die?

Kidding. I think the article is spot on.

David

"Vastly" may be an exaggeration.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/ 

This is a fun cartoon about modeling the disease. It brings up the cruise ship as a good isolated environment in which they did sufficient testing.

Looks like maybe (depending on how the cruise ship model matches the real world) we could be at the top end undercounting the infected by 50%. So in that case double the denominator. But we don't have any handle on the numerator either... we're undercounting the dead, because we don't have the tests or the manpower to test anyone who doesn't die of it in the hospital.

It suffers from some basic flaws. But don’t interpret that as I don’t think the rate isn’t lower than 4%.

This just in! TW thinks the death rate of the coronavirus is 500%!!!!

That is possible. I heard it turns you in to a killer zombie.

I've been thinking about killing me some zombies... 🤔

WHAT!? The zombie apocalypse? I haven't bought my AR-15 yet!

This is on the first variation. It’s the third mutation that goes full zombie.

So you're saying there's a chance?

Shotguns would be more fun for killing zombies. Though high capacity magazines would be highly useful.

My Mossberg Persuader holds 8 rounds of tactical 00 buckshot, plus an additional 6 in the shell carrier. High enough capacity for zombies? I guess it depends if we are talking about the traditional slow stumbling zombies, or the hoards of the fast ones in the newer movies. If we are talking about the later, even an AR wouldn't be enough. Heck, a M249 SAW wouldn't be enough.

David

^Yeah, maybe... but I still want one. 😟

A flammable tar moat and large wall works in combination with both of those.

I started boiling the oil...

I thought you were supposed to set the manure on fire.

Mmm. Fried knishes.

I didn't read the original link yet. But of course the death rate is over estimated.
It relies on confirmed cases and year to date the educated opinion is that America has far more unconfirmed (hell, untested) cases. Due to asymptomatic, or minor symptoms, or being told to stay home by the hospital until it gets bad.
It's unfortunate, but many people have already had this virus and don't know it. And I'm not a medical expert but I don't think we will know anything unless we come up with an antibody test.
We could be at 80% and have real herd immunity, yet if we don't know it we'll continue this charade to feel good about ourselves.

I heard there's already a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus, but they're holding it back until they are able to add the autism trigger.

data helps to give us a more accurate sense of what can happen...

we don't have a real idea of the numbers of infected people, the numbers of deaths caused by the virus, or the number of re-infected...


if the idea is to save lives, then we should maintain mitigation...

if we don't care about people dying, we can "end the charade"

So we agree we should stop publishing bogus death rates.