If the virus is as contagious as claimed, why wouldn't they be closer to herd immunity?
We shelter ourselves away because we're told we shouldn't contract it.
They have nightly golden shower contests.
You'd think more people would get the virus and if they don't die then they'd be part of the cool herd.
tailgater wrote:
.... You simply don't understand numbers do you. This is math, we work from the best numbers we have and do a bit of math....
Our best model (that I know of) is the cruise ship. Closed environment, nearly everyone tested.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/ With that information, we can estimate what percentage of sweden's population has been infected:
Current cases: 22,700
Current fatalities: 2,769
Country's population: 10.23MM
If we want to work from the estimated 50% asymptomatic point, we can assume that 45,400 swedes have been infected (maybe a little more, because testing in Sweden has been limited). This is 0.4% of their population. Do you understand what that number means? That in a herd of 1000 people... 4 have it. That sound like a "herd immunity" to you?
Now, let's try from the other angle. With a roughly 1.2% fatality rate, we can estimate infections from their current fatalities. If 2,769 represents 1.2% of the total cases, then they have likely had about 230,750 cases.... well, that's a much bigger number than doubling the positive testing (as I said earlier, sweden's testing has been limited, and because of that their fatality rate has appeared high). Well THIS number must give us herd immunity right? I mean, that's a big number.
Well... what sort of percentage infection does that give us? oohhhh... 2.25%. Yeah, that's not going to get us there yet.
I don't know what number is required to get effective herd immunity, but logic suggests it would be a number which would cause a very high percentage of people an infected person interacts with to be immune.... so greater than 50%... I've seen 60% thrown out there before.
So when Sweden gets to around 60,000 or 70,000 fatalities then we can start expecting they have reached herd immunity. They are currently averaging around 750 fatalities a day... so only 2 more months.
