gummy jones wrote:(Why am I doing this?!?)
because you're a masochist... either way I appreciate your thought out response. It's more interesting than what I usually see here.
Quote:
You assume too much and too little in your equation all at the same time. You fail to account for murders that may be prevented by armed law abiding gun owners
What percentage of gun related homicide do you think is prevented by armed law abiding gun owners? Remember, this number wouldn't "disappear" it would only be reduced by the amount the regulation reduced gun ownership.
Quote:
...and are also assuming that the guns the bad guys use magically leave circulation when used or just disintegrate somehow.
the US produces approximately 3.5MM guns per year for sale within the US. Assuming the number of guns remains somewhat constant, there is a reduction of approximately 1% of the firearms annually (I don't know where they go)... If all gun sales were to magically stop, the number of guns in circulation will decrease by that amount annually (incidentally, that percentage will reduce as the number of guns in circulation goes down... ) so no I don't think that all guns will magically disappear. The model simply has a point where there are no guns... this is not the same as saying that this will be achieved.
Quote:
Further, you assume that the only way for bad guys to get guns is theft, ignoring the global economy, porous borders and illegal manufacture.
This is a good point. Regulations will have a bigger impact on local production (3.5MM annually) and illegally obtained local guns, and a lower impact on illegally imported guns. Unfortunately, I cannot find any data on number of illegally imported guns into the US. All searches pull up illegally exported guns from the US to Mexico and Canada. I can't tell you what sort of numbers we are dealing with there, but I will agree that if US regulations removed all local production of guns, some percentage could be imported illegally.
Quote:
Further, you fail to recognize the increased opportunity cost of being a criminal surrounded by an armed citizenry.
I think you're over-estimating the ambition of a criminal. I don't have the numbers, but it seems to me that most armed crime isn't just betting on the victim being unarmed. When you burgle a home you don't just plan on the victim being unarmed, you plan on them being away, or remaining asleep. The goal isn't an armed conflict. Similarly, if you mug a victim you don't wait until they prove to be armed before pointing your gun at them. The only crime I can think of that the criminal knowingly takes a risk of the victims being armed is the robbery of businesses with multiple victims/witnesses on the presence (ie convenience stores/restaurants)....
Quote:
Finally, I do not run my graphs out to infonity because I do not feel it is a realistic timeline.
The point isn't to make a realistic timeline. the point is to show the known endpoint. We know that if there are zero guns in the US, there will be zero gun homicides... (we simply have to accept this as fact... you cannot have guns homicide without guns.) We also know that at the current number of guns (approximately 300MM) we have 11K gun homicides annually. We know that a line has to go between those two points on a graph, covering the entire spectrum of guns available. The line can be linear, it can be a power function, exponential... it can have a local maxima, which I believe you are suggesting... but the line has to travel through the two known points.
Quote:
So no, I don't agree with your oversimplified hypothetical no matter how "logical" you think it is with your "basic concepts" and "common sense." You are making a guess based on your world view but an equally logical argument would be that, given the incredible quantity of guns in this country already, the number of gun murders would increase as the proportion of armed good guys:bad guys decreases. And guess what, neither of us has proof and neither of us is less logical.
That only would work as a local maxima. I would posit that the increased crime you believe you would see from the reduced number of armed citizens would never exceed the reduced number of homicides from reduced guns... especially when you consider there are the homicides committed by what are currently legally obtained guns....
Quote:
In the midst of all these unproven hypotheticals are honest, law abiding citizens who deserve a lot better than to be left defenseless against the underbelly of this nation. Life is valuable. That is the ideal I adhere to.
You seem to be unwilling to read what I write... I have zero interest in leaving "honest, law abiding citizens" defenseless. This is not a joke. Let them arm themselves with whatever they can get under the sun. That doesn't absolve us from making an honest assessment of the numbers.
Quote:
You are probably a nice guy, heck, we would probably have a lot of fun over a couple beers and a smoke, but your style of argument with your endless inferences that what you are saying is so logical and obvious that only an absolute moron could disagree reminds me of every liberal news station and talking point and I want to puke.
I am sure that you will tell me how ignorant I am being despite the irrefutable facts and osmosis and the law of causality and gravitational pull and what not but I am going to leave this conversation here. I've been at this freedom thing a long time and wasting my breath isn't on tonight's agenda.
Don't assume I'm a nice guy. But I am a lot of fun. Unless you're homeless.