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The CDC Guidelines for reopening...
fiddler898 Offline
#1 Posted:
Joined: 06-15-2009
Posts: 3,782
...that the White House didn’t want you to see.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6883734-CDC-Business-Plans.html
victor809 Offline
#2 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Because no one wants to follow a data driven plan. Because if the data says you can't re-open, then you wouldn't be able to re-open.

A non data driven plan is much better. That way you can reopen when your gut tells you you should.
DrafterX Offline
#3 Posted:
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,560
That's why Victor can't get rid of da hep.... Mellow
victor809 Offline
#4 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
DrafterX wrote:
That's why Victor can't get rid of da hep.... Mellow


nah man... I cured my hep by peeing on the side of your house.

Now you've got the hep. Didn't ya notice?
rfenst Offline
#5 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,360
victor809 wrote:
Because no one wants to follow a data driven plan. Because if the data says you can't re-open, then you wouldn't be able to re-open.

A non data driven plan is much better. That way you can reopen when your gut tells you you should.

Now that Pence has covid I wonder how quickly they try to open stuff up. They might learn something. Next one sick will be the POTUS. Imagine if they were both on ventilators Pelosi takes over. Ouch! Not smart for trump and pence to go without masks...
victor809 Offline
#6 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
rfenst wrote:
Now that Pence has covid I wonder how quickly they try to open stuff up. They might learn something. Next one sick will be the POTUS. Imagine if they were both on ventilators Pelosi takes over. Ouch! Not smart for trump and pence to go without masks...


Stop... stop.... I really can only get so erect.

Nah. As amused as I'd be, those two aren't going to get sick. And they aren't going to learn anything.

They're going to use this as an excuse to say "See, it's not so bad, now everyone is going to be forced to go out and spend money to help those of us who own businesses! .... er... I mean the economy!"
delta1 Offline
#7 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,810
so two staffers close to Pence and Trump have tested positive...

think Trump's peeps in the WH are now gonna get serious about the virus? they gonna start wearing masks and practicing social distancing?
rfenst Offline
#8 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,360
fiddler898 wrote:
...that the White House didn’t want you to see.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6883734-CDC-Business-Plans.html

Of course not, it requires money for people to pay for childcare and life expenses if they are desired to return to work. Only one place that stimulus money can come from and those in charge are playing a game.
delta1 Offline
#9 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,810
trying to line their own pockets and shift as much money to their wealthy friends and fave corporations as possible under the cover of a national emergency...

let the little guys fight over the crumbs
rfenst Offline
#10 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,360
delta1 wrote:
trying to line their own pockets and shift as much money to their wealthy friends and fave corporations as possible under the cover of a national emergency...

let the little guys fight over the crumbs

That is how revolutions begin to simmer.
Speyside Offline
#11 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Robert, I never thought in my lifetime we would see the possibility of a coup d'état here. I was wrong.
rfenst Offline
#12 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,360
From my brother, a Pediatrician, to his Chasidic Jewish community:


10/20 Update, Outdoor Activities, Dr. Fauci's Meeting &
the Reopening of Minyanim, New Pediatric Condition


I understand that the COVID-19 illness situation is far better now than it has been. At the same time, we have many thousands of people in our kehilla who have come through this Pandemic not infected by the virus, still not immune to the virus, and still vulnerable to infection by it. This includes hundreds of entire families as well as the many elderly or other high-risk individuals who effectively secluded themselves during the entire Pandemic.

The COVID-19 virus is very contagious and potentially very dangerous and it demands our respect now, just as it did two months ago. Any person who is still not immune to the virus will get infected by it if they come in close contact with it, just as tens of thousands of people got infected by it during this Pandemic.

At the same time, doctors, Rabbonim and leaders of the kehilla are aware that some in our kehilla have relaxed restrictions on their own and have begun intermingling socially, allowed their children to intermingle with other children or are davening in minyamin in a manner that clearly contradicts the BMG Psak.

I do hope that clear, unified guidance will be issued shortly for the kehilla. Until then, I am making a personal appeal to you — please don't forget the mageifa that was just brought upon us! Please respect this virus and the destructive power that it has demonstrated.

The virus is still within our midst and is a present, true potential
danger to our kehilla.

Please don't relax restrictions for yourself or you family yet.

Please be patient until clear guidance for the kehilla comes out
as we, with the help of Hashem, pave a pathway forward.



Outdoor Family Activities!

Many Ocean County parks are open for family walks, hikes and bicycling.
Take your family and go!

Go to an open parking lot, or a field, or an open lot, or a hill.
Walk around or run around, play catch or frisbee, hold races or
hold the children's hands!
Take your family and enjoy the outdoors!

Bring your masks and wash hands well before and after you go.
Stay distant from other families as much as you reasonably can.

If you have an open porch or back yard,
Consider a family barbecue!

Please enjoy this time together!



Dr. Fauci's Meeting & the Reopening of Minyanim

On Thursday, May 7, the Orthodox Union hosted a webinar featuring a question/answer session with Dr. Anthony Fauci. Dr. Fauci is an immunologist who is one of the world's most preeminent experts on infectious diseases. He is the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease and has been an advisor to six U.S. presidents, beginning with President Ronald Reagan. Since January 2020, he has been a lead member of President Trump's White House Coronovirus Task Force addressing the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

I was privileged to hear Dr. Fauci speak and am presenting here a summary of the discussion. I have paraphrased the questions and Dr. Fauci's responses in an attempt to most clearly convey the content of the discussionbetween him and Rabbi Moshe Hauer of the Orthodox Union.

I hope that this discussion will be useful as a primer to read, understand, and appreciate the roadmaps that the Agudas Yisrael and Orthodox Union have both just publicly issued to help community leaders and Rabbonim reopen our kehillos.


Q #1. Minyanim are interwoven into the fabric of Orthodox Jewish life.
How will we be able to open minyanim back up? All at once or in gradual increments?

A #1. Unfortunately, social interactions in group settings like minyanim create a core risk for the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Nevertheless, the reintroduction of minyanim will be encouraged, but in a modified, gradual, incremental manner, with strict Social Distancing protocol in place for a while.

Many factors must be taken into consideration before taking this step, including how frequently minyanim will be held, how frequently individual mispallelim will be able to attend minyanim, how to ensure constant physical separation, before, during and after each minyan, and how to manage the minyanim and the entire process is an orderly way.

The initial phase of re-establishing minyanim will require that minyanim consist of no more than ten people, have at least six feet of distance between mispallelim, and have masks worn by every participant.

How and when you do this needs to be decided locally by the leaders of each community in consideration of local COVID-19 infection levels and the readiness of each community.

Q #2. As we open minyanim, how will we best re-integrate the elderly or other potentially vulnerable high-risk individuals?

A #2. As we move toward the re-opening of societal functions, the elderly along with individuals with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, immune-deficiency or other underlying conditions must be protected from the COVID-19 virus. Individuals in the high-risk group must be the last to join in the process of opening minyanim. The healthy and young go first and lead the elderly and vulnerable first, before bringing them in. As 14-day periods pass, new cases of infection will be monitored to asses a safe time to do this.

Q #3. Members of the Orthodox Jewish community have stepped forward in a major way to donate blood plasma to help treat people who are seriously sick with COVID-19 illness. It seems natural for someone to think "If my plasma is being used to help treat people who are sick with COVID-19 illness then I must be immune to the illness!" Please comment on this.

A #3. When a COVID-19 antibody test result is positive for antibodies, at this point it would be an assumption to say that the antibodies are necessarily effective and protective. In fact, I think that the disease is probably producing effective and protective antibodies, and while I do think that this will be shown to be the case, we do not know this definitely at this time.

In addition, we must wait for studies that identify the minimum serologic titer levels that demonstrate immunity. For example, if a person takes an antibody test for measles, we know definitely the minimum titer level above which a person is immune. We do not know this yet with COVID-19.

Furthermore, even after we determine that antibodies are effective and protective, and after we determine the minimum serologic titer levels that demonstrate immunity, we will still need to determine how long the antibodies will remain effective and protective. Long-standing immunity, in which a person can not contract the illness again, can not be assumed.

It is a risk to assume a person is protected by antibodies at this time. Until we determine these matters, do not relax restrictions. We must continue Social Distancing protocols.

Q #4. What does a positive antibody test tell us about contagiousness, about whether or not a person is still shedding the virus into the environment?

A #4. Nothing. Through a certain point in the beginning, a person with a positive antibody test could still be shedding the virus. The test that is used to determine if a person is shedding the virus is a nasopharyngeal PCR test. If the test is done two days in a row, separated by 24 hours, and both tests are negative, this demonstrates that the person is not shedding the virus.


Q #5. Our High Holidays (Yomim Noraim) are coming in the fall. This is a time when the entire community comes together in prayer. What should we expect? How should we think and plan?

A #5. Here is my thought process: If we continue in a measured, organized fashion to re-open minyanim with strict Social Distancing protocols in place, and we closely monitor the levels of new cases of the illness, we will see that new cases of the illness will continue to drop well into June, July and August. However, we expect that fall will bring increased levels of the virus and potential for increasing cases of the illness.

The potential for a dangerous "second wave" of the pandemic will exist in the fall. But whether or not we will have a second wave, or how severe it will be, will depend on how prepared we are.

We will need to have systems well in place to identify new cases of infection immediately, to trace all contacts of the infected person rapidly, to quarantine all potentially exposed contacts of the infected person right away. We will need to test quickly, isolate quickly, and have a strong surveillance system well in place. This all must be in place to avoid a dangerous second wave of the illness.

However, even so, we now live in a new reality. This will be a new normality for a long time.

The risk of the COVID-19 virus will be with us and will follow its cycle of high risk in the fall and winter and low risk in the spring and summer. A vaccine will be developed and then it will need to be administered across the entire population in order to achieve herd immunity, that is to say, in order that we reach the point when the vast majority of the population is immunized. At that point, the virus will no longer be in our midst. This process will take at least two cycles – which is two years.



Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome

In earlier COVID-19 Info emails, a disclaimer was included at the top of every email — COVID-19 information is changing continuously. All information contained herein is subject to change at any time. On April 22, I shared with readers the observation of how COVID-19 illness had been sparing children of significant symptoms — as though the mageifa was passing over our children. Indeed, it was true.

But, as you may well have heard, over the last few weeks a new, potentially serious pediatric condition has emerged that caught doctors by surprise. The new formal name of the condition is “Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Potentially Associated with COVID-19.” News reports have mistakenly called it "Kawasaki Disease."


Important Points Regarding the New Pediatric Condition

• It is rare.
• It is most probably an after-effect of the COVID-19 illness.
• It is not contagious and does not spread from person to person.
• Although it is a potentially serious condition, most children who
have had it have done well.



First, it is important to know that this condition is still rare. While many children with this condition have been hospitalized, and some required intensive care, the good news is that, to date, most children have done well.

This mysterious condition has presented with different patterns of illness. The common feature of this condition is a long-lasting high fever in a child
who feels and looks ill.

In addition to the fever, some children have had severe abdominal pain, vomiting and diarrhea. Others have had certain features of Kawasaki disease, which is a rare condition that can cause symptoms such as beet-red, cracked lips, red swollen hands, an intense body rash, and bilateral conjunctivitis without any discharge. Some children have had heart or kidney issues, blood clotting problems, or respiratory symptoms. Others have presented with toxic shock, while some even have had evidence of Cytokine Storm Syndrome. (See the 5/3/20 email for discussion of the Cytokine Storm in COVID-19 illness, an exaggerated immune response that has caused organ damage in adults with COVID-19.)
It is highly suspected that this condition is a late-stage inflammatory response to COVID-19 illness. Many, but not all, children with this condition tested positive for COVID-19. Even in those children who did not test positive, COVID-19 illness is still suspected because the tests themselves have had varied accuracy. One suspected possibility is that the antibodies the affected children are making to the COVID-19 virus are creating an immune reaction in the child's body. Noone knows for sure yet.
However, the good news so far is that, to date, most children with the condition have done well.

As parents, it is important to know that this condition is rare. It is NOT a contagious illness that can be spread from one person to another. It is most likely a late-stage reaction to COVID-19 illness.

It is very important to know that a child with this condition will have had a high fever for many days, and will feel and look sick. However, it should be reassuring to know that pediatricians often see children who have fevers that last for many days who get better fully. As long as the child appears fine, especially on Tylenol and Motrin, that is the most important thing.


Important Things to Know if Your Child Has a Fever

• Fever is a very common symptom during childhood and is
one of the healthy ways a child's body fights infection.
• Even an extended fever for many days in a child usually
goes away on its own.
• The most important thing to do when your child has a fever
is to look at the whole child:
#1: Does the child look overall fine to you or does the child
appear ill to you?
#2: Does Tylenol or Motrin make the child perk up and make
him or her look fine to you?
• If the answer to #1 or #2 above is "yes" (which is the most
common situation) you can feel reassured that your child is fine.
• If the answer to #2 is "no," then call your child's doctor.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
victor809 Offline
#13 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
So, here in MO they've opened up.

Went out to dinner Friday night to a restaurant we actually got to sit down in. That was nice.

But I can tell you right now, they are not being careful enough. People were too excited to go out again. If this is how "reopening" is going to happen in cities that may have a higher infection rate, we will likely see a second wave.

A few notes....
Groups of people came together from different households. There were tables of 5-8 people all eating together. Those aren't people from the same household (especially since they were all like mid 20s).... this is one or two individuals from each household gathering and sharing food/drink/possibly virus.

In an attempt to make a 6' distance between tables, the people sitting at the tables had to be shoulder to shoulder... so anyone in those large groups above really were right on top of each other...

They had a couple empty tables to keep space between occupied tables. By 9 or 10, the waitstaff just didn't care enough to enforce that... those tables kept getting filled.

The "no dining at counters" thing kept getting half enforced... people would sit at the bar, order food, start eating it, then when the table opened up move the food to the table. Nothing like making sure your bartender is facing your plate of food for a few minutes before taking it somewhere to eat.

No servers wore masks at all. Even the ones bringing out the food.

Because I'm an idiot I ordered two separate dishes that required eating with my hands. Given I had just touched the menu (paper, so definitely hadn't been wiped down between uses)... I've likely got whatever was anywhere in that building.


Anyway... an interesting experience. Columbia isn't a huge hotspot or anything, so I doubt there's a huge risk. But from what I've seen, our population simply isn't capable at this time to open up responsibly.
Speyside Offline
#14 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Meh,

We will keep roughing it. Social interaction is over rated. I like my life, I think I'll keep it. Open, don't open. I do have an opinion on how and why, but F it. I really don't care who dies and who has chronic conditions because of this, other than my family and friends.
rfenst Offline
#15 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,360
Victor, I never would have sit down in that restraunt.

I always wear a mask when I have to go out around others and expect others too as well. But this behavior was at a restaraunt, in a restaurant. Of all places, a resteraunt needs to wear a mask.

Local Costco requires a mask for entry. "No mask, we'll give one, but you must wear it."
tailgater Offline
#16 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
delta1 wrote:
so two staffers close to Pence and Trump have tested positive...

think Trump's peeps in the WH are now gonna get serious about the virus? they gonna start wearing masks and practicing social distancing?



Why do people insist on saying things like this?

Testing positive means almost nothing if you're below 60 years old and in decent health.

Yet everyone thinks that testing positive is a big deal.


Speyside Offline
#17 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Rfenst,

I agree with you. Any shopping I do I tell the cashier to change their gloves before touching anything of mine and to disinfect the card transaction machine before I tap my card. If they won't do both of those I walk out. I am not interested in going to a sit down restaraunt anytime in the foreseeable future.
tailgater Offline
#18 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
rfenst wrote:
Victor, I never would have sit down in that restraunt.

I always wear a mask when I have to go out around others and expect others too as well. But this behavior was at a restaraunt, in a restaurant. Of all places, a resteraunt needs to wear a mask.

Local Costco requires a mask for entry. "No mask, we'll give one, but you must wear it."


In Massachusetts it's now an order to wear masks in public places where "proper social distancing" can't be practiced.
All stores.

I've been wearing masks to the stores since we were told we should. (The week after we were told we shouldn't, but that's more convenient to ignore for now...).
I told my kids, who by age are virtually bullet proof to this virus, to wear masks. Out of respect for the employees we all should.

But once we start to open restaurants the mask order will no longer apply. You can't eat/drink with a mask. I'm sure they'll make the servers wear them, but will that really matter? They're handling your food already.
It's either safe, or it's not. A mask won't change that.

victor809 Offline
#19 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
tailgater wrote:
In Massachusetts it's now an order to wear masks in public places where "proper social distancing" can't be practiced.
All stores.

I've been wearing masks to the stores since we were told we should. (The week after we were told we shouldn't, but that's more convenient to ignore for now...).
I told my kids, who by age are virtually bullet proof to this virus, to wear masks. Out of respect for the employees we all should.

But once we start to open restaurants the mask order will no longer apply. You can't eat/drink with a mask. I'm sure they'll make the servers wear them, but will that really matter? They're handling your food already.
It's either safe, or it's not. A mask won't change that.



A mask would have helped. A server walking with your plate of food in front of them is slightly less dangerous if they have something covering their face reducing airflow. It's not that these masks are n95 (although that would be awesome)... it's simple airflow. You restrict airflow and the exhaust air will not travel as far. Maybe some of it doesn't make it as far as your plate... maybe you get a lower viral load (some early information suggested lower exposure levels impacted severity)....

The amount of crap that comes out of our mouths unintentionally is .... kinda disgusting. And I'm not talking about a trump rally ... I mean just general droplets of spit. Anything to reduce the flow of it is a small help.

But you are right, the customers cannot wear masks. Defeats the entire purpose of eating/drinking. That's where the real risk will come in for even well managed restaurant openings.... multiple households gathering in close confines at a table, without masks.
victor809 Offline
#20 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
rfenst wrote:
Victor, I never would have sit down in that restraunt.

I always wear a mask when I have to go out around others and expect others too as well. But this behavior was at a restaraunt, in a restaurant. Of all places, a resteraunt needs to wear a mask.

Local Costco requires a mask for entry. "No mask, we'll give one, but you must wear it."


I mean.... we're in a tiny town in MO with less than 100 cases total. The risk isn't huge that they had it.

Plus I'm kinda bored... so death or crippling illness sounds like something new to try... so I'm ok with that.

And honestly.... in the end none of it matters. We tried to all pull together as a nation to fix this. We made a lot of progress... but it's broken down now. Idiots are marching on capitols to get things opened up. As long as that is happening, we have failed in the plan to actually work together and resolve the issue. Once people started their organized maskless gatherings we essentially shifted to "well, guess we're going to have to have 1% of the country die" mode.

If we've decided to kill 1% of the country, I'm going to at least have a hot meal at a restaurant.
HockeyDad Offline
#21 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,163
We’re still shut down in the San Francisco Bay Area even though California is opening up and the worst infection areas were down in LA.

We need to finish off all the mom and pop businesses first before we open up.
victor809 Offline
#22 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
HockeyDad wrote:
We’re still shut down in the San Francisco Bay Area even though California is opening up and the worst infection areas were down in LA.

We need to finish off all the mom and pop businesses first before we open up.


Stop lying... it's the bay area. the mom and pop stores already closed because of rent.
Gene363 Offline
#23 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,838

To maintain the six foot distancing requirement I suppose servers will be tossing you your food from six feet away.
delta1 Offline
#24 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,810
tailgater wrote:
Why do people insist on saying things like this?

Testing positive means almost nothing if you're below 60 years old and in decent health.

Yet everyone thinks that testing positive is a big deal.




it's a big deal if you're positive and continue working with, and in close proximity to, people older than 60...of which there are many in the WH


but I guess if you're getting tested every day, unlike the vast majority of people who are being told to return to work, young and old, healthy or with underlying health conditions...no biggie
teedubbya Offline
#25 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
there is a lot wrong with the statement. None worth arguing about. Folks have made up their minds.
tailgater Offline
#26 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
delta1 wrote:
it's a big deal if you're positive and continue working with, and in close proximity to, people older than 60...of which there are many in the WH


but I guess if you're getting tested every day, unlike the vast majority of people who are being told to return to work, young and old, healthy or with underlying health conditions...no biggie


It IS a big deal if you are close to the elderly.

But to suggest that people don't know this unless they contract the virus?
That NOW they'll take it serious?

If anything, knowingly contracting the virus and being asymptomatic would likely reinforce the notion that this isn't a big deal after all.


The elderly are the ones at risk.
They can catch this from the young.

That's not reason enough to shut down the world.

delta1 Offline
#27 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,810
you've changed the focus here...you were asking why I wondered what would be the White House's response to two of their peeps testing positive...

up to then, they never wore masks, seldom practiced social distancing at public events, and when questioned why they didn't think it was important to set a good example for the American public, show leadership during a crisis, largely ignored the question

well, they just issued a statement that all personnel will now wear masks in the WH, will restrict access, will test staff daily, will observe social distancing where possible and will do more teleworking...

doubt if Trump will wear a mask tho...he says he's tested every day (must be nice)
delta1 Offline
#28 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,810
tailgater wrote:
It IS a big deal if you are close to the elderly.

But to suggest that people don't know this unless they contract the virus?
That NOW they'll take it serious?

If anything, knowingly contracting the virus and being asymptomatic would likely reinforce the notion that this isn't a big deal after all.


The elderly are the ones at risk.
They can catch this from the young.

That's not reason enough to shut down the world.





correct...see the article about new health guidelines for people in the WH, issued today


and correct...

but it is reason in some places where voluntary isolation, social distancing and responsible behavior in public places, let alone the mixed work/employee populations common to many businesses, is difficult to achieve and the number of positive carriers keep going up, the number of severely ill people hospitalized increase and there is danger of overwhelming the medical care facilities in the area...
frankj1 Offline
#29 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
death of elderly isn't the only devastating damage to people.
it's starting to feel like the common thought is no one else has to worry any more than with the flu or a cold.

victor809 Offline
#30 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Washington Post has some article on increased frequency of strokes in younger people due to COVID. Apparently blood clots is a symptom of the disease... and we all know what happens when one of those is in the brain.

Not statistical, just anecdotal. I can't actually get any reliable information right now on what these rates are. Too much of a PITA to filter through all the non-data news.
rfenst Offline
#31 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,360
delta1 wrote:
you've changed the focus here...you were asking why I wondered what would be the White House's response to two of their peeps testing positive...

up to then, they never wore masks, seldom practiced social distancing at public events, and when questioned why they didn't think it was important to set a good example for the American public, show leadership during a crisis, largely ignored the question

well, they just issued a statement that all personnel will now wear masks in the WH, will restrict access, will test staff daily, will observe social distancing where possible and will do more teleworking...

doubt if Trump will wear a mask tho...he says he's tested every day (must be nice)

It's about time.
tonygraz Offline
#32 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,284
The Deaths of children in NYC and the similar cases in CT and other states tends to show that no group may be exempt from a serious illness from this virus.
Gene363 Offline
#33 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,838
Today we keep a lot of people alive that would have died i the past, most of them are likely to be much more vulnerable to death if the are infected.

In March and probably long before, Michael Osterholm* was saying people with other health problems were at a higher risk from the C-19. You people are obese and even back during the Vietnam War I remember surgeons treating wounded soldiers being appalled at the amount of heart and circulatory problems in young patients normally only seen in the elderly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=4s


*
Quote:
Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
victor809 Offline
#34 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Gene363 wrote:
Today we keep a lot of people alive that would have died i the past, most of them are likely to be much more vulnerable to death if the are infected.

In March and probably long before, Michael Osterholm* was saying people with other health problems were at a higher risk from the C-19. You people are obese and even back during the Vietnam War I remember surgeons treating wounded soldiers being appalled at the amount of heart and circulatory problems in young patients normally only seen in the elderly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=4s


*


I won't bother watching Joe Rogan podcasts... not since I listened to one years ago and it was moronic peddling of synthetic testosterone supplements. Combine that with the fact your video is from early March, seems like it wouldn't have a ton of important information given it's 2 months old.
frankj1 Offline
#35 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
anyone concerned with the economy may want to consider the staggering medical costs we might face treating those less likely than elderly to die and survive in critical shape for decades.
We are still finding out new stuff almost hourly in this short amount of time since this virus became known...and it will take time to sift fact from speculation.
Certainly if we learn that survivors won't have these issues, then we should take more steps forward, with caution.
teedubbya Offline
#36 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
One thing I am noticing that goes somewhat unreported is we are getting better at treatment. Several different approaches are being combined. We are learning a lot. I am amazed at some of the stuff I am hearing.

This thing is real. It is not the flu. It isn't just about old people and needs to be taken seriously. The politics about the economy and when and how to open up are arguable. The virus isn't.
frankj1 Offline
#37 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
despite some political grandstanding from both sides of the aisle, the Trumpless Q and A that just ended was pretty interesting.
tailgater Offline
#38 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
teedubbya wrote:
One thing I am noticing that goes somewhat unreported is we are getting better at treatment. Several different approaches are being combined. We are learning a lot. I am amazed at some of the stuff I am hearing.

This thing is real. It is not the flu. It isn't just about old people and needs to be taken seriously. The politics about the economy and when and how to open up are arguable. The virus isn't.



Eliminate the numbers from those 60 and older and we're not on lock down.

teedubbya Offline
#39 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Nope. But it’s not worth arguing.
teedubbya Offline
#40 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Actually the more I think about that I take it back. Tail is right.

He should take his calculations in to the local health department, the Governor and or the CDC or NIH. He should explain why his calculations are more accurate and theirs are wrong. They are calculating things wrong and he should help them interpret the real meaning of the data and how to proceed. Make sure to share the theory of those under 60. That will be important to them.

My only request is you please record it.
victor809 Offline
#41 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Heheh
frankj1 Offline
#42 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,223
eliminate current New York stats (fewer hospitalizations/positive tests/deaths) and the status for the other 56 states isn't quite as great either.

everyone will grasp onto anything to prove what they believe...everyone.
I really hope we can get this wagon rolling safely immediately, just not convinced it wouldn't backfire.
delta1 Offline
#43 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,810
if the experience in other nations provide lessons, and given the American history of behavior with the virus as well as current infection and mortality rates, the rush to reopen and end the shutdown in most places will result in another shutdown...

the virus treats all people, including Americans, the same...the people who avoid contact with the virus the best are the ones who don't get infected and possibly seriously ill
tonygraz Offline
#44 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,284
CT is scheduled tentatively to begin reopening in a week if the Federal Guidelines continue to be met. Restaurants have lots of restrictions and is only for outdoor dining to begin with. Lots of other restrictions will be in place and some businesses will not be allowed reopening on the 20th. I hope it works out well.

I don't know the breakdown by age or any other classification but the death toll is now around 9% of the population that tested positive (not adjusted for those not tested). It ow looks like anyone can get tested if they make an advance appointment for it. No info on wait time and no doctor referral needed.
teedubbya Offline
#45 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I do like hearing testing access is improving in some areas.
delta1 Offline
#46 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,810
yes...we've got a long way to go though, and will need to bolster our ability to contact trace people who have associated with those who test positive...otherwise testing doesn't help that much, except to identify and take some infected people off the playing field...

problem is: "people who need the test will get tested" is our standard...different standard than widespread testing where "anyone who wants a test can get tested"
teedubbya Offline
#47 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I also like seeing some localities following the CDC and the Presidents model for opening up even though the President vilifies them for doing so and there is a certain its not that bad just open it up denier crowd driving him.
HockeyDad Offline
#48 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,163
delta1 wrote:
yes...we've got a long way to go though, and will need to bolster our ability to contact trace people who have associated with those who test positive...otherwise testing doesn't help that much, except to identify and take some infected people off the playing field...


Now we’re talking! Take the infected people off the playing field and we end this thing. Bayonets and headshots.
Speyside Offline
#49 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Land mines and machine gun turrets in target rich environments, go big or go home.
Speyside Offline
#50 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
I doubt that age is the actual significant factor. Poor health is. Age comes into play because the older people are the more people are in poor health.
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