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Exponential Curves.
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Speyside Offline
#1 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 7:55 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
A while back I posted that states that didn't open properly, cautiously were going to see non linear curves of increases in COVID 19 cases. Someone who didn't like that answer pushed back and asked what type of curves. I answered exponential and was mostly not believed. Look at the curves for Texas, Arizona, Florida, and California. They are the begginings of exponential curves. More than 1/2 of our states are seeing increases in COVID 19. I really haven't looked at the others to see if they are exponential or not. I put this in politics because most of you will see this as political. It is not. Wake up! The numbers are real and don't lie. I do not profess to be an expert in this field. TW is, my expertise is elsewhere as I have stated. This isn't ending anytime soon, in fact it has barely begun.
DrafterX Offline
#2 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 8:10 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Gloom, despair and Agony on me... Mellow
Speyside Offline
#3 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 8:16 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Dude, I suspect your state is going exponential as well. As an older overweight smoker you are in a high risk group. I know you are laughing the majority of the time. Do what you will of course. But maybe take a look at the numbers?
delta1 Offline
#4 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:20 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
at least wear a mask, Drafter whenever you're out in public and encountering other people, and especially if you go inside a building with a bunch of other people...

have there been any cases of human to puppy dog transmission?
tonygraz Offline
#5 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:47 PM EST
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,253
Not that anyone will admit.
Speyside Offline
#6 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:54 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Well, as long as Tony went there. Delta, wearing a mask won't stop Drafter from puppy dog transmission. Well, maybe depending on where he wears it.
HockeyDad Offline
#7 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 11:08 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,134
We’re fine in California. We had a lot of protests, riots, and looting and that scared off the ‘Rona. Most of our spike was caused by a birthday party in West Covina.
TheMidgetMan Offline
#8 Posted: Wed, Jun 24 2020, 11:13 PM EST
Joined: 06-18-2020
Posts: 10
Everybody was kungflu fighting
Those protesters were fast as lightning
Looking at DrafterX without a mask is mighty frightening
rfenst Offline
#9 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:39 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,323
delta1 wrote:
...have there been any cases of human to puppy dog transmission?

Actually, yes and to different zoo animals IIRC.
rfenst Offline
#10 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 6:36 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,323
Florida had 5,500 new cases yesterday.

Our governor is an idiot. He closed too late and is opening too fast.

Phased lifting of restrictions on people and businesses appears to have lured people into a sense of false comfort. So many people are not wearing masks and practicing social distancing.
ram27bat
Speyside Offline
#11 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 8:34 AM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Robert, stay safe. Your whole darned state is a hot spot. Unfortunately your governor is what he is. Has your mayor enacted masking orders like Miami has?
rfenst Offline
#12 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 8:40 AM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,323
Speyside wrote:
Robert, stay safe. Your whole darned state is a hot spot. Unfortunately your governor is what he is. Has your mayor enacted masking orders like Miami has?

Orlando/Orange County made masks required in public again. My county, Seminole County, is still a small county that moves very slowly. We have had several hot-spots within one mile of where I live.
victor809 Offline
#13 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 9:40 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Nationwide we're starting to see a fun upward swing in infections. I don't even know if I would call this a second peak, since it's really the infection hitting parts of the country it hadn't gotten to in the initial wave.
tailgater Offline
#14 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 10:09 AM EST
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
Everyone who holed up and reduced their immunity are now mingling with the general populous.
The increase is no more surprising than that resulting from increased testing.
victor809 Offline
#15 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 10:34 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
tailgater wrote:
Everyone who holed up and reduced their immunity are now mingling with the general populous.
The increase is no more surprising than that resulting from increased testing.




"reduced their immunity"?

You know this is a binary function, right?

And people in Texas aren't just now mingling with people from NYC. It is starting to spread in N Carolina/S Carolina, Georgia.. it's spiking in Florida... Arizona was #4 in new cases yesterday. Texas was #1. New York was #12 in new cases.

What we're seeing is the actual spread of the virus, minus areas that remain shut down (like NYC). We did such a piss poor attempt at our shutdown that we didn't really gain much other than a few months, at the cost of billions.

So now I suppose we can expect to just all get infected.
Brewha Offline
#16 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 1:41 PM EST
Joined: 01-25-2010
Posts: 12,175
Here in Texas - Governor "Hot Wheels" is working to out stupid Trump.
As our infection rate explodes he refuse to require masks.

And "recommending" that Texans stay home and wear mask when they go out is like telling the not to drink on a Friday night.

As a footnote; the CDC and other identify the infection rate between someone who is infected and someone who is not at 1.5% - IF THEY BOTH WEAR A MASK.








Footnote 2 - they are holding the legendary Ft. Worth Gun Show this weekend.
Cause stupid is as stupid does....
delta1 Offline
#17 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:38 PM EST
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,788
so many states responded to those on the right who demanded to be free of imposed lockdowns...many are now suffering from dramatic increases in positive cases and seriously ill patients filling up their ICU's to near capacity...

CA's Gov. Newsome bent to political pressure and relaxed his stay-at-home orders, and put out a phased in plan for re-opening, despite L.A.County being a serious hot-spot...many conservative counties didn't heed the phased in part of the plan and re-opened most businesses without implementing safety guidelines, and are now experiencing dramatic increases in positive tests...hope that doesn't mean a higher death rate in a couple of weeks


and Nero/Trump continues to fiddle
Speyside Offline
#18 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:28 PM EST
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
I prefer wearing a mask over wearing a ventilator so I choose to wear a mask. The highest level of testing has occurred in New York state. Yet their curve is in decline. Illinois has aggressively tested yet their number is in decline. Immunity appears to be short term, though there are no reports yet that have proper study protocols. And of course no peer review. I had antibodies, I no longer do.
HockeyDad Offline
#19 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:34 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,134
Here in the Bay Area most of the population of Oakland are now infected because of recent celebratory street parties that were encouraged by Governor Newsom and the Democrats while Republicans stayed home and sheltered in place.

They’re sending the US Navy hospital ship to Bakersfield because the outbreak is so bad there.

Most of the conservative counties will be all dead in three weeks and this will increase the death toll by 25 people.
teedubbya Offline
#20 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:43 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
This thing is closely following predictable models given how you change variables. It's really weird in this regard. It's really not that difficult to predict what it will do given certain actions. It really is vanilla in the context of how these things usually work. There is a concerted effort to blur this fact.

The mantra that more testing = more cases is one of those grain of truth statements that can then be twisted to mean something it doesn't. Well if this is true than that must be true too. It's absolute BS. It's one of those situations if folks cant understand the complexities of how this works in less than 30 seconds then it must be false and the folks studying these sorts of things all their lives must just be trying to trick us because they hate America and the economy. Those "experts" are bad and just trying to scare us... luckily we know more than them. (it builds off the as you increase police presence you increase crime.... you must...there are more arrests etc.)

A surge in testing may have an immediate uptick in identified cases (not cases, they are already there...because they are already there) but it would be very short term and the results will end up in a decline in most situations for a lot of reasons. It is why you test. It is also a factor that can and is factored in to modeling which is conveniently ignored by the cable news educated experts with their heads in the sand (ok not really that would be safer than where their heads really are).

There are a lot of other things to look at like ratio of infected to tested, hospitalizations, deaths (the last thing to look at real time due to lag in reporting) etc. Many MANY other things to look at. Much of the talk by folks thinking they understand how this is reported, what the numbers mean etc. is complete and utter garbage to anyone who works with them or understands them well.

And yes masks help. They really do. There isn't much question about it and if you are an anti masker you march beside anti vaxers, flat earthers, 911 deniers and birthers. It's your right to be uninformed though. And I don't care what the folks on the angle that claim masks actually get you sicker or do nothing say. They are idiots.
teedubbya Offline
#21 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:46 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
But we are getting much better at treating it and I do expect death RATES to continue to drop. Actual number of covid cases and deaths continue to be under reported. Long term effects are still not understood. That's why since the very beginning I've been quoting Pet Semetery. Sometimes dead is better.
HockeyDad Offline
#22 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:49 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,134
teedubbya wrote:
It's one of those situations if folks cant understand the complexities of how this works in less than 30 seconds


I heard it’s just like the flu.
teedubbya Offline
#23 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:50 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
HockeyDad wrote:
I heard it’s just like the flu.



Except the flu kills more people! OPEN UP NOW! SAD.
DrafterX Offline
#24 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:52 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Brewha wrote:


Footnote 2 - they are holding the legendary Ft. Worth Gun Show this weekend.
Cause stupid is as stupid does....



Grab me some scalpels... Mellow
DrafterX Offline
#25 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 3:57 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
“People don’t have a job, people don’t know where to go, they don’t know what to do,” Biden said Thursday. “Now we have over 120 million dead from COVID.”


it's worse than I thought.... Mellow
HockeyDad Offline
#26 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:01 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,134
I’ve been saying all along it’s really bad.
DrafterX Offline
#27 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:04 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
True... true... Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#28 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:11 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Well there is hope. Since we have an AIDS vaccine (per dear leader) maybe that knowledge can be applied to this.
victor809 Offline
#29 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:11 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
I thought this thread was about Drafter's milkshake....
HockeyDad Offline
#30 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:23 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,134

It brings all the boys to the yard.
teedubbya Offline
#31 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:25 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
And they're like, it's better than yours
HockeyDad Offline
#32 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:31 PM EST
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,134
D#%m right it’s better than yours
DrafterX Offline
#33 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:32 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
Mellow
teedubbya Offline
#34 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:33 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
DrafterX wrote:
I can teach you, but I have to charge
victor809 Offline
#35 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:35 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Poor drafter has to pay for his general reassignment surgery somehow.
teedubbya Offline
#36 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:36 PM EST
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
victor809 wrote:
Poor drafter has to pay for his general reassignment surgery somehow.



He gets a discount though since they just need to poke it
victor809 Offline
#37 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 5:27 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
poor drafter...
benja123 Offline
#38 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 7:05 PM EST
Joined: 03-09-2015
Posts: 1,269
victor809 wrote:
"reduced their immunity"?

You know this is a binary function, right?

And people in Texas aren't just now mingling with people from NYC. It is starting to spread in N Carolina/S Carolina, Georgia.. it's spiking in Florida... Arizona was #4 in new cases yesterday. Texas was #1. New York was #12 in new cases.

What we're seeing is the actual spread of the virus, minus areas that remain shut down (like NYC). We did such a piss poor attempt at our shutdown that we didn't really gain much other than a few months, at the cost of billions.

So now I suppose we can expect to just all get infected.

We're #1!! We're #1!!
But as stated before, we opened before we hit our peak. It was easy odds this would happen. Still staying home and getting my booze and food delivered. Luckily we have a home gym setup and like to cook for ourselves so nothings really changed for us.
benja123 Offline
#39 Posted: Thu, Jun 25 2020, 7:08 PM EST
Joined: 03-09-2015
Posts: 1,269
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/06/22/the-rules-penalties-and-exceptions-as-bexar-county-mask-order-goes-in-effect/
victor809 Offline
#40 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 9:12 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
benja123 wrote:
We're #1!! We're #1!!
But as stated before, we opened before we hit our peak. It was easy odds this would happen. Still staying home and getting my booze and food delivered. Luckily we have a home gym setup and like to cook for ourselves so nothings really changed for us.


yep.... just shy of 6k yesterday! Good job guys.

I'm gonna expect a lull over the weekend and you can get out there next week and break some more records!
benja123 Offline
#41 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 9:29 AM EST
Joined: 03-09-2015
Posts: 1,269
If the crowds at Home Depot are any indication (yeah, I had to go there to finish up my deck removal project) there will be no lull. Damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead!

I can't believe back in Feb I wondered whether we should cancel our trip to Jamaica in August, here we are in full contagion mode almost July.

I understand the general weariness, wanting to get back to normal- I'm tired of it too but I'm in the vulnerable category agewise so double masked and held my breath as I negotiated the masses in the hardware section. I like my lungs the way they are.
victor809 Offline
#42 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 9:42 AM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
I'm just talking about the lull that seems to happen in the virus counts over the weekend. Seems to cycle down (fewer Dr appointments maybe) so counts on a Sat/Sun are lower than mon-fri.
My coworker the other day noted that Thurs are usually the peak for the week... so I'm assuming we'll see about 3 days of lower numbers and then it'll start to go back up again mon.
victor809 Offline
#43 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:20 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
And florida screaming into the lead today with almost 9k cases reported. I don't know if Texas has the ability to catch up with that!
benja123 Offline
#44 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:29 PM EST
Joined: 03-09-2015
Posts: 1,269
victor809 wrote:
And florida screaming into the lead today with almost 9k cases reported. I don't know if Texas has the ability to catch up with that!

The day aint over yet!
rfenst Offline
#45 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:49 PM EST
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,323
Pence is on TV reporting that his task force is doing just great and that the increase in cases is just due to increased testing.
victor809 Offline
#46 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:57 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
rfenst wrote:
Pence is on TV reporting that his task force is doing just great and that the increase in cases is just due to increased testing.


So apparently florida's testing has not increased over this week. It's like 50k tests a day. But the positive results keep going up.

So Pence is lying. I mean, it's a "sounds good" lie... but it's a lie
victor809 Offline
#47 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:58 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
benja123 wrote:
The day aint over yet!


Texas is starting the day with a PITIFUL 331 cases. They better get some more positive results in today if they're even going to remain a contender.


*** note - the site I usually watch is probably delayed from actual state by state reporting. I'm sure Texas knows of more cases today... but I'm not going to go to every damn state page to see what's going on.
victor809 Offline
#48 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 1:00 PM EST
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Arizona and North Carolina both up from yesterday's highs... They are looking to take that top spot away!
ZRX1200 Offline
#49 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 1:12 PM EST
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,604
What a surprising tone shift after NY calmed it’s teets.....
DrafterX Offline
#50 Posted: Fri, Jun 26 2020, 1:15 PM EST
Joined: 10-18-2005
Posts: 98,551
victor809 wrote:
So apparently florida's testing has not increased over this week. It's like 50k tests a day. But the positive results keep going up.

So Pence is lying. I mean, it's a "sounds good" lie... but it's a lie




has testing increased in other states..?? Did Pence specifically say testing increased in Florida or was he speaking about the country..?? Mellow
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