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WSJ Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
frankj1 Offline
#101 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
RobertHively wrote:
No man bun here, but HD's report on the California variant is discouraging.

I'm worried about the California "progressive" plague spreading to the rest of the United States.

The FOGS got the Covid-19 worry covered.

you go enjoy yourself, Robert.
I'll hold down the fort.

Hey! How do you get so much exploration time anyway?
RobertHively Offline
#102 Posted:
Joined: 01-14-2015
Posts: 1,857
frankj1 wrote:
you go enjoy yourself, Robert.
I'll hold down the fort.

Hey! How do you get so much exploration time anyway?


Because we don't have children and we live in the mountains. It's easy to go hiking in the mountains when it's a day trip.

As far as travel is concerned, it's all about planning.

For example, going to the beach is once a year for us, and we usually do some hiking at different places on the return trip.

So when we went to the beach in Georgia last year, we also hiked/visited a couple other states. There's 3 of the 9 states we visited in one 8 day trip. We used weekends as the bookends of the trip.
frankj1 Offline
#103 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
RobertHively wrote:
Because we don't have children and we live in the mountains. It's easy to go hiking in the mountains when it's a day trip.

As far as travel is concerned, it's all about planning.

For example, going to the beach is once a year for us, and we usually do some hiking at different places on the return trip.

So when we went to the beach in Georgia last year, we also hiked/visited a couple other states. There's 3 of the 9 states we visited in one 8 day trip. We used weekends as the bookends of the trip.

so many wonderful ways to live. Nice to hear how you've been able to live yours the way you love.
tailgater Offline
#104 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
teedubbya wrote:
I would encourage folks to read the thread. Pay attention to who said what when and draw your own conclusions.

My post #15 was in reference to post 13 that I don’t buy immunity by April and made fun of MACS with a deek joke for good measure. It wasn’t just to disagree with someone who hadn’t posted in the thread yet and chose to quote me later. The MACS part was just a cheap shot. I don’t really believe he sucks deek or eats donkey turds.

I took post 60 as calling me wrong and and accusing me of using late inning hindsight when I didn’t. I guess the “You keep saying things like that and you might even convince yourself.” through me off. I took it as calling me wrong and disagreeing. Forgive me if the quote is not exact I don’t want to bother to find it and make it exact. If it wasn’t calling me wrong then so be it.

I’ve been intimately involved with the modeling all along and watched things develop real time. There is no late inning picking and choosing going on. That’s made up nonsense. Just watching decision points and developments and remodeling accordingly. It’s how it works. Some models have been more accurate or precise than others but this has been a textbook pandemic for the type of virus believe it or not. That has different meaning than some apply to it but oh well I can’t help that. We all have our level of understanding.

Meh if anyone wants to believe my take on the virus somehow hinges on an individual in here rather than my profession and what I’ve been working on every day, and I just want to disagree with them even though I weighed in first, and for some reason I’m just lying and don’t know what I’m talking about so be it. I guess you’ve got me. I’ve been exposed.

But read the whole thing objectively and I doubt that’s where you land.

It’s really silly, and I won’t be goaded into a stupid argument at that level.

I hope we have immunity by April. I would love to be wrong.


You would have prevented your need to defend yourself if you answered questions with terms that didn't begin with "I know more than you" or "you're wrong". Especially when the accused never claimed to be right.
Or better yet, you could have included your self-congratulations along with an actual answer to the questions. Which we still haven't heard, ironically enough. You don't have time to tell us why the John Hopkins doctor is wrong. But you have ample time to explain that you're right.

I know I'm busting your balls here. But over a beer I wouldn't let you dodge the question. Because you ARE more involved in this subject at a different level than I am.
But I'm not some hack taking shots for no reason.
I am working directly with manufacturers to put together the test kits. Have been since April.
My nephew works at Moderna. He's a biochemist working on the virus. Directly.
I haven't had an opportunity to ask him directly about the WSJ opinion piece. Family gatherings are fewer these days. But I guarantee you his answer wouldn't be dismissive like you have been.

It's that's all you got, then so be it.
I read the thread.
I was just hoping for more.



HockeyDad Offline
#105 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,137
Remember that time when you were standing 5’ 11” away from someone and the ‘Rona almost got you but you backed up an inch and foiled it’s plans?
teedubbya Offline
#106 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Tail if you and I were drinking a beer it would be no different. I’d likely keep my mouth shut, smile and let you continue to believe you know more than you do. I actually enjoy watching people do that. I really don’t care what you think you would let me get away with or not and I don’t care if your great grand pappy cured small pox but you never got a chance to talk to him. I’m glad you are putting together kits for the manufacturer. Someone has to do it and I’m glad it’s you.

You have demonstrated you don’t have enough knowledge to ask the right questions or connect the dots which is fine. I have these discussions with folks at multiple levels mostly way above my knowledge. I don’t start with badgering them and telling them how wrong they are.

It’s your approach that I have no interest in. You don’t really want to learn you want to call others wrong and argue. You are so far off base and yet you insist you know more than you do. It makes me have no interest to discuss it with you beer or not despite your perceived ability to make me or assume I know less because I won’t.

You are an ankle biter. I don’t like ankle biters and certainly won’t allow them to drag me down to their level on any given issue. I’m glad you think if someone doesn’t argue back you must be right or they know less than they really do. Whatever floats your boat.

But I still won’t get in to this with you and won’t get goaded in to it even if you declare false victory in an attempt to do so or conclude I don’t know what I’m talking about or do what I do for a living.

I figured out your level of knowledge on the subject, your tactic and approach to arguing, and your agenda. I’m just not interested. Meh. If that means I’m (insert nonsense here) I guess you are right, I am. I’ve simply spent too much time on it with you already.

I said previously I’m done on the topic with you. I’m just not interested. You can keep biting ankles but that won’t change things.



Edit to add one thing that maybe will help bridge the gap. Let’s say someone has been working with the modeling since day 1. Let’s say they have been taking various modeling since day 1, breaking them down and then using the same parameters to focus on various populations large and small (geographic areas, cultures, socioeconomic groups etc). Lets say they have been extrapolating the models to assist things such as testing, vax distribution and administration as well as focusing human and physical resources down to the hospital and patient level.

let’s say a large part of their job has been providing analytics to others on said subject and let’s say they have been working with adjusted models as late as Friday evening that don’t indicate imminent immunity. Now let’s say that person doesn’t believe herd immunity will happen by April based on what they have been immersed in and knowing the models have been amazingly accurate the whole time based on certain decision points. This pandemic and this virus have been pretty vanilla and pretty predictable in many ways. That means something different knowing what I know than it may to you. But you argue.

And let’s say all they get is disagreement from someone without this level of experience and education on the subject. Said person probably will no longer be interested in discussing it with them.

I hope we do have it by April. I just don’t think we will unless vax efforts grow exponentially which I suppose they could. That’s about all I can say on the matter at the time. And it could already have pretty well been pieced together by anyone reading the thread with an open mind that didn’t just want to goad and argue. It’s already there. I didn’t say much new, just connected a couple dots. I’ve said all along I hope I am wrong. But Christ my ankles hurt.
BuckyB93 Offline
#107 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,209
In summary:
- I know more than you.
- You're wrong.
- You wouldn't understand.
- Trust the experts.

It's the same mantra the masses have been fed all along.
teedubbya Offline
#108 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Yea that’s exactly what I said.
Smooth light Offline
#109 Posted:
Joined: 06-26-2020
Posts: 3,598
Takes two to tango.
Smooth light Offline
#110 Posted:
Joined: 06-26-2020
Posts: 3,598
Takes two to tango.
tailgater Offline
#111 Posted:
Joined: 06-01-2000
Posts: 26,185
BuckyB93 wrote:
In summary:
- I know more than you.
- You're wrong.
- You wouldn't understand.
- Trust the experts.

It's the same mantra the masses have been fed all along.


He doesn't even see it.
He spends more time telling us he knows the answer rather than actually providing the answer.

It was simple. The WSJ opinion made a prediction and provided data to support it. I liked the information and asked TW why he disagreed.
Instead of answering, he's looking for reasons to NOT answer.
I didn't ask it correctly.
I am "wrong" (in quotes because I never claimed to be right. I simply asked if the doctor was)
He (TW) is wicked smart and we just have to trust him.

Odd that he wouldn't even want to engage in the discussion over a beer.
Most people would be happy to share knowledge of a subject they supposedly know, especially if asked.
Which is telling.

But I'm the bad guy here.
You know. For asking.
Or I guess it was "how" I asked.
Directly.

Internet forums are a marvelous tool. You can be anyone you claim to be.

frankj1 Offline
#112 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
can I have your beer if you're not drinking it, tw?
teedubbya Offline
#113 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Lol. Sure. And Bucky I get sarcasm.
teedubbya Offline
#114 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I actually tried to engage again with my edit despite my statement that I wouldn’t. I’ve said why I disagree. Not recognizing that isn’t my problem.

Take my beer frank, I’ll grab another and join another conversation.
delta1 Offline
#115 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,797
tail did tell us at the beginning that this is no more serious than the flu, so why are we being told to stay home and close up shop...and why should we listen...
teedubbya Offline
#116 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Well no one could have known at the beginning, except those that did

There have been accurate predictions all along the way. I guess if you ignore things they never existed. Some folks and most models have been right about this from the beginning despite being told repeatedly they weren’t. That’s not hindsight. Folks have been screaming it all along the way but some folks have deaf ears.

It’s too easy now with 500,000 dead to say no one knew. Yes they did. And that number is under reported not over reported.
teedubbya Offline
#117 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
K o C was right. Where has he been?
tonygraz Offline
#118 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,266
I think he's been busty, but he just posted today in cigar discussions.
frankj1 Offline
#119 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
busty, you say?
teedubbya Offline
#120 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
I like busts. Canton was cool.
tonygraz Offline
#121 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,266
Fingas not working and I need to get a new eyeglass prescription.
delta1 Offline
#122 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,797
teedubbya wrote:
Well no one could have known at the beginning, except those that did

There have been accurate predictions all along the way. I guess if you ignore things they never existed. Some folks and most models have been right about this from the beginning despite being told repeatedly they weren’t. That’s not hindsight. Folks have been screaming it all along the way but some folks have deaf ears.

It’s too easy now with 500,000 dead to say no one knew. Yes they did. And that number is under reported not over reported.


and those who have been wrong would not even think about having their heart surgeries performed by the news anchor on the local TV broadcast...or even Rand Paul, who has a medical degree...
RMAN4443 Offline
#123 Posted:
Joined: 09-29-2016
Posts: 7,683
delta1 wrote:
and those who have been wrong would not even think about having their heart surgeries performed by the news anchor on the local TV broadcast...or even Rand Paul, who has a medical degree...

Jill Biden is a Dr....Liar
delta1 Offline
#124 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,797
and I would not have her do any kind of surgery, nor accept her predictions of what will happen with the corona virus over the next several months over someone with an extensive background, education and experience in virology and related fields...


nor would I trust someone, over an expert in the field, who starts by saying,"you know, a lot of people say..."
BuckyB93 Offline
#125 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,209
Someone told me once that we should follow Fauci's orders because he's a doctor not a politician. I almost choked on my key lime seltzer water.

(actually it was probably raspberry lime seltzer water, I don't think my Walmart carries key lime seltzer water)
tonygraz Offline
#126 Posted:
Joined: 08-11-2008
Posts: 20,266
If you don't know what you are drinking, you might be wrong on some other things too.
rfenst Offline
#127 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,336
BuckyB93 wrote:
Someone told me once that we should follow Fauci's orders because he's a doctor not a politician. I almost choked on my key lime seltzer water.

(actually it was probably raspberry lime seltzer water, I don't think my Walmart carries key lime seltzer water)

Got any other peer reviewed medical people contradicting NIH or CDC?
teedubbya Offline
#128 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Career civil servant through how many administrations and most had never heard about him before this pandemic. Some politician.

The effort to discredit him has been disgusting but effective to folks approaching this from a political rather than health perspective. The dude knows his **** regardless of the Trump smear campaign.

He’s very well respected by pretty much all but those swayed by politics. We are lucky to have him and most the world knows it. Except a big orange slice in the USA.

Remember the villain Hans Blix? Now he was a politician.
HockeyDad Offline
#129 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,137
Hans Blix? Isn’t he the one who put his finger in the ****?
HockeyDad Offline
#130 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,137
OMG I can’t say d I k e?
RMAN4443 Offline
#131 Posted:
Joined: 09-29-2016
Posts: 7,683
HockeyDad wrote:
OMG I can’t say d I k e?

You can say D ike, but you can't talk about sticking your finger in one Anxious
teedubbya Offline
#132 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
****** Van **** where are you?
BuckyB93 Offline
#133 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,209
teedubbya wrote:
Career civil servant through how many administrations and most had never heard about him before this pandemic. Some politician.

The effort to discredit him has been disgusting but effective to folks approaching this from a political rather than health perspective. The dude knows his **** regardless of the Trump smear campaign.

He’s very well respected by pretty much all but those swayed by politics. We are lucky to have him and most the world knows it. Except a big orange slice in the USA.

Remember the villain Hans Blix? Now he was a politician.


Career civil servant... He's not a politician, he's a "Career Civil Servant." Is that what we're supposed to call them now? Yeah... OK. If that makes it sound better to you, then go ahead and call them whatever you want.

Gotta take out the trash, tomorrow the Waste Disposal Engineer stops by to collect my donations.

Career civil servant... that's a good one.
teedubbya Offline
#134 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
It’s a specific term for a non political federal employee *shrug*
teedubbya Offline
#135 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
To my knowledge he’s never run for office.
BuckyB93 Offline
#136 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,209
So if they don't or haven't run for office, they are not a politician? Got it. Based on that then, you'd have to say... ohhh, I don't know....I guess

Henry Kissinger was not a politician. Colin Powell was not a politician.

If your confused if they are a politician or not, ask yourself: Who do they spend most of their day to day work time with (like 98.2% of their time)? I'm pretty sure Fauci ain't running blood drives or vaccine clinics in DC. He's having meetings, cocktails and dinners with, yep... you guessed it... politicians (some even ran for office and got elected and stuff)

If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.
teedubbya Offline
#137 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
*shrug* so you’ve heard of him prior to the pandemic? I had but that’s just because of what I do. He sure is a crappy politician if you hadn’t.

He’s also served many admins of both parties. Career. Not based on party.

He seems to me to be a convenient scape goat.

He’s not a politician but that’s different from not being political. I’m sure you know that difference. Every person in a senior leadership position in any organization is political to some degree. That doesn’t make them politicians. Trump is a politician. Fauci is a career civil servant in a leadership position. I’m not sure but I don’t think he’s even a political appointee. He is likely SES of some form.

He’s never been a politician to my knowledge but he’s sure been made a scapegoat.
teedubbya Offline
#138 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
But I get what you are saying. He’s not pure. He’s just not what trump programs his folks to think he is. That was ugly.
teedubbya Offline
#139 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Keep in mind fauci has no authority to do anything. He just advises. He’s not the decider.
teedubbya Offline
#140 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Who was the decider? Who is now?
ZRX1200 Offline
#141 Posted:
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,617
Trump is officially a citizen now not a politician, isn’t that what we’re supposed to say now you poopy headed dingleberry?


Am I late to the name calling?


DrafterX has moobs, and jaderose can suck a bowing ball through a garden hose.
teedubbya Offline
#142 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Lol. Trump is still a politician. He just spoke at CPAC, hints he will run again and is playing around with future candidates you diarrhea breathed gorilla.
ZRX1200 Offline
#143 Posted:
Joined: 07-08-2007
Posts: 60,617
I don’t know if we’re lucky enough to have him run again.


I kinda wanna see Jaderose in the bell tower chanting “this is my weapon, there are many like it, but this is my own”.
teedubbya Offline
#144 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Winning or losing a race is the difference between being a citizen or in office but both candidates are still politicians. Trump just happens to be a big loser. A huge loser. More like Herbert Hoover then Reagan because Reagan was a winner and trump is a narcissistic liar who I don’t think I mentioned is a loser. A big loser. The biggest.
teedubbya Offline
#145 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
Ok z that’s a fun dream. But only if he keeps screaming that with nekkid with his deek in his hand.
HockeyDad Offline
#146 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,137
Career civil servants are the worse.
BuckyB93 Offline
#147 Posted:
Joined: 07-16-2004
Posts: 14,209
So were getting a stronger definition of a politician.

1) You must run or have run for office (therefore Trump was not a politician until he ran for office)
2) You must be known by most of the population. (a large chunk of the population can't name the VP therefore the VP ain't a politician).
3) You must do it as a career.
4) You must be based in a particular political party, if both parties accept you then you're not a politician.

You've just eliminated 90% of the people running around DC from being politicians, s#iT more like 99.9999% since most of them are not known by the general population nor have run for office. We can cross off all cabinet members past and current as long as they didn't run for any office. We can eliminate all lobbyists, people working for PACs and stuff too.

I'm so glad, I was thinking DC was full of politicians.
teedubbya Offline
#148 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
‘I’ll keep it simple. Fauci isn’t what orange man programmed his followers to think he is.
teedubbya Offline
#149 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
He is a little known career civil servant but a well known medical expert that was vilified by not going along with trumps lies. He has no power to decide or take action but gets blamed as if he does by those that can’t blame trump for anything. The Bucky never stopped with trump. It was always someone else.

I get it. You drank the tang and blame him. Can’t help you there. Someone on another thread wished him killed today. The dude is a nice mild mannered man that has been vilified in what I call the Lance Armstrong defense.

Fauci knows his ****. I don’t expect you to believe that. But he didn’t stay in that position by happenstance, doesn’t need the coin or aggravation and has a sense of duty even if it means wear the ring the ugly **** thrown at him by trump that apparently worked with some.
HockeyDad Offline
#150 Posted:
Joined: 09-20-2000
Posts: 46,137
Fauci spent too much time with Chris Cuomo for my liking. Seemed like he enjoyed his 15 minutes.
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